Starting a Fire Sale

[Sammy Sofa]

I got a great idea, let's sell high on Marmol now and then bitch when Hendry gets him back in 2012 when he's making $13 million per year and the Cubs need a closer.

 

This is a profoundly stupid and wasteful reason to hold onto a player.

[Guest]

I got a great idea, let's sell high on Marmol now and then bitch when Hendry gets him back in 2012 when he's making $13 million per year and the Cubs need a closer.

 

You're really making yourself look bad here. If you think it's a bad idea to trade Marmol, then say so. But stop inventing future hypocritical arguments and applying them to people in an effort to make yourself look correct.

[Rob]

I got a great idea, let's sell high on Marmol now and then bitch when Hendry gets him back in 2012 when he's making $13 million per year and the Cubs need a closer.

 

You're really making yourself look bad here. If you think it's a bad idea to trade Marmol, then say so. But stop inventing future hypocritical arguments and applying them to people in an effort to make yourself look correct.

 

A lot of people (myself included) fear that moving Marmol would put Hendry in a position where he'd keep Cashner in a relief role. That's a legitimate fear.

 

Backtobanks scenario is less likely, but I don't see it making him look all that far out there.

[jersey cubs fan]

I got a great idea, let's sell high on Marmol now and then bitch when Hendry gets him back in 2012 when he's making $13 million per year and the Cubs need a closer.

 

You're really making yourself look bad here. If you think it's a bad idea to trade Marmol, then say so. But stop inventing future hypocritical arguments and applying them to people in an effort to make yourself look correct.

 

A lot of people (myself included) fear that moving Marmol would put Hendry in a position where he'd keep Cashner in a relief role. That's a legitimate fear.

 

Backtobanks scenario is less likely, but I don't see it making him look all that far out there.

 

That's a legit fear, but there's no reason to assume he doesn't already want to keep Cashner there since he's so obsessed with bullpen help and more than happy to keep better arms down there.

[Guest]

I got a great idea, let's sell high on Marmol now and then bitch when Hendry gets him back in 2012 when he's making $13 million per year and the Cubs need a closer.

 

You're really making yourself look bad here. If you think it's a bad idea to trade Marmol, then say so. But stop inventing future hypocritical arguments and applying them to people in an effort to make yourself look correct.

 

A lot of people (myself included) fear that moving Marmol would put Hendry in a position where he'd keep Cashner in a relief role. That's a legitimate fear.

 

Backtobanks scenario is less likely, but I don't see it making him look all that far out there.

 

I didn't say not to have trepidations about trading Marmol, whatever the reasoning. My point was to lose the "you'll all just complain about Hendry anyway" connotations that line so many of his posts. Make your point, don't invent imaginary points to mock.

[Tracer Bullet]

I got a great idea, let's sell high on Marmol now and then bitch when Hendry gets him back in 2012 when he's making $13 million per year and the Cubs need a closer.

 

You're really making yourself look bad here. If you think it's a bad idea to trade Marmol, then say so. But stop inventing future hypocritical arguments and applying them to people in an effort to make yourself look correct.

 

A lot of people (myself included) fear that moving Marmol would put Hendry in a position where he'd keep Cashner in a relief role. That's a legitimate fear.

 

Backtobanks scenario is less likely, but I don't see it making him look all that far out there.

 

Less likely? how many arb-eligible closers pull in $13m? how many FA closers pull in $13m?

[jersey cubs fan]

Less likely? how many arb-eligible closers pull in $13m? how many FA closers pull in $13m?

 

Mo and KRod, almost. Making $13m in arbitration is unlikely, but getting that much in free agency is possible if he maintains his level of performance for the next few years.

[Rob]

I got a great idea, let's sell high on Marmol now and then bitch when Hendry gets him back in 2012 when he's making $13 million per year and the Cubs need a closer.

 

You're really making yourself look bad here. If you think it's a bad idea to trade Marmol, then say so. But stop inventing future hypocritical arguments and applying them to people in an effort to make yourself look correct.

 

A lot of people (myself included) fear that moving Marmol would put Hendry in a position where he'd keep Cashner in a relief role. That's a legitimate fear.

 

Backtobanks scenario is less likely, but I don't see it making him look all that far out there.

 

Less likely? how many arb-eligible closers pull in $13m? how many FA closers pull in $13m?

 

2012 is his last year of arbitration eligibility, IIRC. So he's free-market price that year.

 

Off the top of my head, I think Rivera, Cordero, Wood and K-Rod make over 10 mil a year. And Papelbon is just short, but still in his 2nd year of arb. There may be others, as well.

[Rob]

Less likely? how many arb-eligible closers pull in $13m? how many FA closers pull in $13m?

 

Mo and KRod, almost. Making $13m in arbitration is unlikely, but getting that much in free agency is possible if he maintains his level of performance for the next few years.

 

Remember, the last year of arbitration is 100% of market value. It's not like earlier arb years where there's a discout involved.

[SouthSideRyan]

Less likely? how many arb-eligible closers pull in $13m? how many FA closers pull in $13m?

 

Mo and KRod, almost. Making $13m in arbitration is unlikely, but getting that much in free agency is possible if he maintains his level of performance for the next few years.

 

Remember, the last year of arbitration is 100% of market value. It's not like earlier arb years where there's a discout involved.

 

No arbiter is going to give a guy with less than 100 career saves 13M

[Tracer Bullet]

Less likely? how many arb-eligible closers pull in $13m? how many FA closers pull in $13m?

 

Mo and KRod, almost. Making $13m in arbitration is unlikely, but getting that much in free agency is possible if he maintains his level of performance for the next few years.

 

Remember, the last year of arbitration is 100% of market value. It's not like earlier arb years where there's a discout involved.

 

No arbiter is going to give a guy with less than 100 career saves 13M

 

thank you. Marmol has still just 1 (if he makes it through this year) year of full-time closing under his belt. He's not getting paid like Papelbon.

 

Compare:

 

Papelbon salary last year and this year (1st to arb years): $6m+ and $9m+

 

Marmol salary this year (1st arb year): $2m+

[Rob]

Less likely? how many arb-eligible closers pull in $13m? how many FA closers pull in $13m?

 

Mo and KRod, almost. Making $13m in arbitration is unlikely, but getting that much in free agency is possible if he maintains his level of performance for the next few years.

 

Remember, the last year of arbitration is 100% of market value. It's not like earlier arb years where there's a discout involved.

 

No arbiter is going to give a guy with less than 100 career saves 13M

 

Maybe he'll go all John Smoltz on us next year, who cares. I never picked out the damn number, just implied there was a slim chance that it could happen. And I stand by that.

[Soul]

There's a slim chance I will win the powerball.

[Wheelimus]

There's a slim chance I talk Megan Fox and Anne Hathaway into a 3 way.

[Backtobanks]

My point is that Ricketts has to put a product on the field next year to sell tickets. Following some of the posts here, we should trade ARam, Marmol, Byrd, Theriot, Gorzelanny, Colvin, Lilly, Lee, Fukudome, etc. As I've posted before, the Cubs will go into 2011 with a team they think can compete with their eye on contending in 2012. Obviously Ricketts plans to cut the payroll (at least for 2011). I would think that you need to keep players like Byrd, ARam, Colvin, Gorzelanny, Castro, Soto, Cashner, Marshall, Marmol, Dempster, Soriano (unfortunately), and Wells to be the core so that you can fill in the rest of the spots with prospects and/or reasonably priced FAs. As for the Hendry part of the discussion, my point has always been that he will be criticized no matter what he does or doesn't do. If he "sells high" on Marmol, there will be dozens of pages criticizing him for not geting enough and paying too much for relief help in 2012 (if they're contending). Everybody knows who they should be trying to trade - Lilly, DLee, Silva, Soriano, Fukudome, Zambrano, Theriot, Nady, etc. to open spots and get salary relief. Listen to offers for anybody on the team, but unless you're going to get the second coming of Albert Pujols, you don't trade away a young, superstar closer who is still very affordable.

[jersey cubs fan]

My point is that Ricketts has to put a product on the field next year to sell tickets. Following some of the posts here, we should trade ARam, Marmol, Byrd, Theriot, Gorzelanny, Colvin, Lilly, Lee, Fukudome, etc. As I've posted before, the Cubs will go into 2011 with a team they think can compete with their eye on contending in 2012. Obviously Ricketts plans to cut the payroll (at least for 2011). I would think that you need to keep players like Byrd, ARam, Colvin, Gorzelanny, Castro, Soto, Cashner, Marshall, Marmol, Dempster, Soriano (unfortunately), and Wells to be the core so that you can fill in the rest of the spots with prospects and/or reasonably priced FAs. As for the Hendry part of the discussion, my point has always been that he will be criticized no matter what he does or doesn't do. If he "sells high" on Marmol, there will be dozens of pages criticizing him for not geting enough and paying too much for relief help in 2012 (if they're contending). Everybody knows who they should be trying to trade - Lilly, DLee, Silva, Soriano, Fukudome, Zambrano, Theriot, Nady, etc. to open spots and get salary relief. Listen to offers for anybody on the team, but unless you're going to get the second coming of Albert Pujols, you don't trade away a young, superstar closer who is still very affordable.

 

Why not? Why is he a super star? There's no good reason why Marmol can't be traded.

[jersey cubs fan]

Hendry is going to get criticized no matter what he does because there are more than one opinion out there about what he should do. Every GM gets criticized no matter what they do because of this very reason. It's a pointless statement to make.

[SouthSideRyan]

And as long as backtobanks is around, Hendry's moves will be defended no matter what he does.

[Backtobanks]

My point is that Ricketts has to put a product on the field next year to sell tickets. Following some of the posts here, we should trade ARam, Marmol, Byrd, Theriot, Gorzelanny, Colvin, Lilly, Lee, Fukudome, etc. As I've posted before, the Cubs will go into 2011 with a team they think can compete with their eye on contending in 2012. Obviously Ricketts plans to cut the payroll (at least for 2011). I would think that you need to keep players like Byrd, ARam, Colvin, Gorzelanny, Castro, Soto, Cashner, Marshall, Marmol, Dempster, Soriano (unfortunately), and Wells to be the core so that you can fill in the rest of the spots with prospects and/or reasonably priced FAs. As for the Hendry part of the discussion, my point has always been that he will be criticized no matter what he does or doesn't do. If he "sells high" on Marmol, there will be dozens of pages criticizing him for not geting enough and paying too much for relief help in 2012 (if they're contending). Everybody knows who they should be trying to trade - Lilly, DLee, Silva, Soriano, Fukudome, Zambrano, Theriot, Nady, etc. to open spots and get salary relief. Listen to offers for anybody on the team, but unless you're going to get the second coming of Albert Pujols, you don't trade away a young, superstar closer who is still very affordable.

 

Why not? Why is he a super star? There's no good reason why Marmol can't be traded.

 

If he's not a superstar, he's on his way to becoming one. Using that logic, should we trade Castro, Cashner, or Soto? What's Marmol going to get you? Maybe a good AAA player and a decent AA player at most. Like I said earlier, listen to offers on anyone, but it would take an overwhelming offer to get Marmol (or Soto, Cashner, Castro, etc.)

[Backtobanks]

Hendry is going to get criticized no matter what he does because there are more than one opinion out there about what he should do. Every GM gets criticized no matter what they do because of this very reason. It's a pointless statement to make.

 

Every GM will get criticized, but the history of the Cubs, the passion and loyalty of the fans, and the media in Chicago makes it rather unique.

[Sammy Sofa]

If he's not a superstar, he's on his way to becoming one. Using that logic, should we trade Castro, Cashner, or Soto? What's Marmol going to get you? Maybe a good AAA player and a decent AA player at most. Like I said earlier, listen to offers on anyone, but it would take an overwhelming offer to get Marmol (or Soto, Cashner, Castro, etc.)

 

So Marmol either is or will be a superstar...but you declare he won't net the Cubs much in return. Hey, it's great that you can have it both ways.

 

Stop lumping in a guy whose ceiling is being a closer with Soto, Cashner and Castro. Marmol's kicked ass, but it's extremely unlikely that he'll pan out to be some kind of freak that has a long effective career.

 

I also like how you bemoan the Cubs having Soriano, like he's terrible for them this season.

 

Just stick to your usual ridiculous video game trade suggestions.

[TruffleShuffle]

i mostly agree, but our bullpen is already lousy and has very few major league arms, so trading marmol isn't going to improve that situation for next year. i guess my point was that people were saying "sell high" on marmol quite a while ago, and unless we got really fortunate in what prospects we receive, the deal would have been a negative for the cubs.

 

The bullpen really isn't all that "lousy" at all, and rarely should it be any kind of a priority when a team needs this much work since it's relatively easy to construct a serviceable bullpen. The bullpen is not going to make or break the Cubs next year, and it's just going to be another year of extreme wear and tear on the arm. It's pretty incredible that they've gotten this much productive use out of him thus far, so they should definitely be listening to what other teams are offering for him, if they are inquiring. Teams in the hunt are always looking to overpay for bullpen help, and someone like Marmol would net an even better return.

 

how is the bullpen not lousy? they have an ERA of 4.39, which is 23rd in the league, and in reality they've probably been even worse (they've allowed 28 unearned runs). the pitchers not named marmol have an ERA of 4.70 and a RA of 5.80. they're 19th in WHIP (1.43) even with marmol. you can say that you want to trade him while admitting that the bullpen is bad.

[TruffleShuffle]

My point is that Ricketts has to put a product on the field next year to sell tickets. Following some of the posts here, we should trade ARam, Marmol, Byrd, Theriot, Gorzelanny, Colvin, Lilly, Lee, Fukudome, etc. As I've posted before, the Cubs will go into 2011 with a team they think can compete with their eye on contending in 2012. Obviously Ricketts plans to cut the payroll (at least for 2011). I would think that you need to keep players like Byrd, ARam, Colvin, Gorzelanny, Castro, Soto, Cashner, Marshall, Marmol, Dempster, Soriano (unfortunately), and Wells to be the core so that you can fill in the rest of the spots with prospects and/or reasonably priced FAs. As for the Hendry part of the discussion, my point has always been that he will be criticized no matter what he does or doesn't do. If he "sells high" on Marmol, there will be dozens of pages criticizing him for not geting enough and paying too much for relief help in 2012 (if they're contending). Everybody knows who they should be trying to trade - Lilly, DLee, Silva, Soriano, Fukudome, Zambrano, Theriot, Nady, etc. to open spots and get salary relief. Listen to offers for anybody on the team, but unless you're going to get the second coming of Albert Pujols, you don't trade away a young, superstar closer who is still very affordable.

 

"who they should be trying to trade" seems to include a lot of overpaid and/or unproductive players that nobody else will really give up anything of value for. with the likely exception of lilly.

[Sammy Sofa]

i mostly agree, but our bullpen is already lousy and has very few major league arms, so trading marmol isn't going to improve that situation for next year. i guess my point was that people were saying "sell high" on marmol quite a while ago, and unless we got really fortunate in what prospects we receive, the deal would have been a negative for the cubs.

 

The bullpen really isn't all that "lousy" at all, and rarely should it be any kind of a priority when a team needs this much work since it's relatively easy to construct a serviceable bullpen. The bullpen is not going to make or break the Cubs next year, and it's just going to be another year of extreme wear and tear on the arm. It's pretty incredible that they've gotten this much productive use out of him thus far, so they should definitely be listening to what other teams are offering for him, if they are inquiring. Teams in the hunt are always looking to overpay for bullpen help, and someone like Marmol would net an even better return.

 

how is the bullpen not lousy? they have an ERA of 4.39, which is 23rd in the league, and in reality they've probably been even worse (they've allowed 28 unearned runs). the pitchers not named marmol have an ERA of 4.70 and a RA of 5.80. they're 19th in WHIP (1.43) even with marmol. you can say that you want to trade him while admitting that the bullpen is bad.

 

The bullpen numbers are dragged down by the terrible start too many of the relievers got off to coupled with Lou's inability to manage any kind of bullpen (ie-insisting on using certain pitchers well passed it being obvious that they're terrible). It's not an ideal bullpen, but it's mostly serviceable. Bullpens usually need to be tweaked every year anyway, so whatever. Marmol being there doesn't change that, and he's not making or breaking the team while also having tremendous value for teams that actually are in the mix. He's just going to get more expensive and he's a huge injury risk. Why cling to him unnecessarily when trading him can actually be much more useful to the team in the long run than him actually pitching for them?

[Backtobanks]

If he's not a superstar, he's on his way to becoming one. Using that logic, should we trade Castro, Cashner, or Soto? What's Marmol going to get you? Maybe a good AAA player and a decent AA player at most. Like I said earlier, listen to offers on anyone, but it would take an overwhelming offer to get Marmol (or Soto, Cashner, Castro, etc.)

 

So Marmol either is or will be a superstar...but you declare he won't net the Cubs much in return. Hey, it's great that you can have it both ways.

 

Stop lumping in a guy whose ceiling is being a closer with Soto, Cashner and Castro. Marmol's kicked ass, but it's extremely unlikely that he'll pan out to be some kind of freak that has a long effective career.

 

I also like how you bemoan the Cubs having Soriano, like he's terrible for them this season.

 

Just stick to your usual ridiculous video game trade suggestions.

 

You need to get off the video games if you think Marmol is going to net you very much in return. Relief pitchers (even great closers) don't net you great returns. So what's the point in trading him if he's young, affordable, and outstanding? I don't "bemoan the Cubs having Soriano", but you must be the only person on this board who doesn't want him (and his contract) traded. The only reason I listed Soriano as a player to keep is because no team will take him, so there's no use in pretending that he won't be part of the 2011 Cubs.