It's Time

[SouthSideRyan]

Wow, it isn't even June. You guys sound like true Cub fans. I think the first thing that will happen is getting rid of small guys like Gabow, Nady and Fontenot a quick and easy scapegoat.

 

I totally agree with you. If the Cubs play .538 ball the rest of the way they end up 84-78 and have a decent shot at the Wild Card. Now I agree that they have sucked this season, but you can't tell me that they can't play .538 ball assuming ARam and DLee start hitting. ARam might have a "down" year, but he's not going to stay in "Aaron Miles land" the whole season.

 

He might. Some guys simply fall off of a cliff after a major injury. I obviously hope that's not the case, but it's certainly not outside of the realm of possibility.

 

He did hit .304/.381/.496 after returning last year.

 

The ISO's a little lower, but there were no signs that he'd be anything less than an above average hitter

 

Weirder things have happened.

 

Well yeah, it's possible Ramirez has fallen off a cliff, never to return to his previous levels. But I'm having a hard time blaming that on an injury from which he's already retrurned from and had a productive half seaso.

[dew1679666265]

Wow, it isn't even June. You guys sound like true Cub fans. I think the first thing that will happen is getting rid of small guys like Gabow, Nady and Fontenot a quick and easy scapegoat.

 

I totally agree with you. If the Cubs play .538 ball the rest of the way they end up 84-78 and have a decent shot at the Wild Card. Now I agree that they have sucked this season, but you can't tell me that they can't play .538 ball assuming ARam and DLee start hitting. ARam might have a "down" year, but he's not going to stay in "Aaron Miles land" the whole season.

 

The average wild card winner in the NL the past 5 years has had 89 wins (92, 90, 90, 88, 89). Winning 84 games this year may not give us much of a chance at a wild card.

 

With 130 games to go, we have to go 75-55 to hit 89 wins. That's a .576 winning percentage.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well yeah, it's possible Ramirez has fallen off a cliff, never to return to his previous levels. But I'm having a hard time blaming that on an injury from which he's already retrurned from and had a productive half seaso.

 

I'm not. He might have "tweaked" something just enough in the offseason or in the spring. All it potentially takes is for just something to be a bit off for it to mess up a guy's swing and/or timing even if he's not playing in pain. Or maybe it was even last season. Those post-injury numbers are inflated by a monster July:

 

.333 .405 .600 1.005

 

He then had a pretty big drop off in August:

 

.278 .329 .430 .760

 

But then rebounded nicely the rest of the season:

 

.302 .406 .465 .871

 

In short, I have no idea what the [expletive] is going on with him because he's been up and down since the injury.

[Rob]

For heads to roll. To quote Yogi Berra, "It's getting late early". I know that many of you will probably chastize me for jumping the gun, but some of you know me well enough from the ESPN message board days to know that I don't do that.

 

I'm not necessarily saying that Hendry has to fire Lou. As a matter of fact, he won't. He'll use Lou as a scapegoat if the season continues to go south in an attempt to keep his own job. However, if logic overcomes, there will come a time where you have to start sitting guys on the bench. I don't think you can keep your job 2 years in a row blaming the entire team's struggles on 3 offensive (pun intended) players. Last year they blamed it on Bradley, Soto and Sori. This year the plan appears to be to blame it on Rami, DLee and Z.

 

Z already lost his job, and that didn't send the message. I think it's time to stick Lee and Rami at 7 and 8 in the order, and if that doesn't spark some sense of urgency, you put them on the bench for somebody else. There just doesn't seem to be any sense of urgency with some of the players on this team. The two players that seem to have worked the hardest in the offseason, and continue to work hard (Fuku & Soto) spend quite a bit of time on the bench in favor of questionable lefty/righty matchups and unneccessary "rest". What message does that send? Work hard, get yourself in shape, and maybe I'll find a way of getting you out of the lineup while our light-hitting corner infielders with years of service can do whatever the hell they want.

 

FYI, Demp, Lilly, Rami, Lee, Z, Silva and Sori make more money combined than the entire rosters of the teams that just took 5 of 6 games from us, and completely dominated us in 2 of the 5 games they took.

 

We are already in the unfortunate position to have to play 100 win pace baseball in order to win the division or Wild Card. So much fo the "this is a long season", "we'll come around", "it's a matter of time", "these guys always hit", "we'll get this thing going in the right direction" crap we've been hearing fot he last 6 weeks.

 

This is stupid.

[dew1679666265]

In short, I have no idea what the [expletive] is going on with him because he's been up and down since the injury.

 

His .176 BABIP isn't helping his numbers a bit right now. His LD% is down quite a bit as well (14% now vs a career 19%), but that's a really abysmal BABIP.

 

I don't, however, know if it's completely out of whack after his drop in LD%.

[lumafia]

He had to sit on the sideline with a freak injury as he watched his 09 team completely tank in a historic underachievement, even by Cubs' standards.

 

Wait, what? Talk about being melodramatic. Finishing 83-78 was underwhelming and a letdown, but a "historic underachievement?" Yeah, right.

 

The Cubs entered into the top 3 in payroll for the first time since average payrolls exceeded $10 million back in 1988. So yes....historic underachievement in not making the playoffs.

[lumafia]

Aramis is pretty stupid if he decided to take time off in a season where he could opt out and get paid.

 

No kidding. Any talk like he's slacking off or burnt out or whatever is just absurd. He has every motivation to do well this year in what his likely his last opportunity for a really big payday.

 

Except for the fact that he has a player option for next year, that at this point, he would be crazy to opt out of.

[lumafia]

For heads to roll. To quote Yogi Berra, "It's getting late early". I know that many of you will probably chastize me for jumping the gun, but some of you know me well enough from the ESPN message board days to know that I don't do that.

 

I'm not necessarily saying that Hendry has to fire Lou. As a matter of fact, he won't. He'll use Lou as a scapegoat if the season continues to go south in an attempt to keep his own job. However, if logic overcomes, there will come a time where you have to start sitting guys on the bench. I don't think you can keep your job 2 years in a row blaming the entire team's struggles on 3 offensive (pun intended) players. Last year they blamed it on Bradley, Soto and Sori. This year the plan appears to be to blame it on Rami, DLee and Z.

 

Z already lost his job, and that didn't send the message. I think it's time to stick Lee and Rami at 7 and 8 in the order, and if that doesn't spark some sense of urgency, you put them on the bench for somebody else. There just doesn't seem to be any sense of urgency with some of the players on this team. The two players that seem to have worked the hardest in the offseason, and continue to work hard (Fuku & Soto) spend quite a bit of time on the bench in favor of questionable lefty/righty matchups and unneccessary "rest". What message does that send? Work hard, get yourself in shape, and maybe I'll find a way of getting you out of the lineup while our light-hitting corner infielders with years of service can do whatever the hell they want.

 

FYI, Demp, Lilly, Rami, Lee, Z, Silva and Sori make more money combined than the entire rosters of the teams that just took 5 of 6 games from us, and completely dominated us in 2 of the 5 games they took.

 

We are already in the unfortunate position to have to play 100 win pace baseball in order to win the division or Wild Card. So much fo the "this is a long season", "we'll come around", "it's a matter of time", "these guys always hit", "we'll get this thing going in the right direction" crap we've been hearing fot he last 6 weeks.

 

This is stupid.

 

 

Really? Dropping Lee and Rami in the order is stupid? Sorry...how silly of me. Let's continue to allow them to hit a combined 180 in the middle of our order. That's not stupid.

[Soul]

Wow, it isn't even June. You guys sound like true Cub fans. I think the first thing that will happen is getting rid of small guys like Gabow, Nady and Fontenot a quick and easy scapegoat.

 

I totally agree with you. If the Cubs play .538 ball the rest of the way they end up 84-78 and have a decent shot at the Wild Card. Now I agree that they have sucked this season, but you can't tell me that they can't play .538 ball assuming ARam and DLee start hitting. ARam might have a "down" year, but he's not going to stay in "Aaron Miles land" the whole season.

 

The average wild card winner in the NL the past 5 years has had 89 wins (92, 90, 90, 88, 89). Winning 84 games this year may not give us much of a chance at a wild card.

 

With 130 games to go, we have to go 75-55 to hit 89 wins. That's a .576 winning percentage.

 

Eh, 4 games under .500 on May 10 wouldn't cause me to panic even if I had high expectations coming into the season.

 

My mind is much more focused on securing the best possible opportunities starting in 2011.

[jersey cubs fan]

Really? Dropping Lee and Rami in the order is stupid? Sorry...how silly of me. Let's continue to allow them to hit a combined 180 in the middle of our order. That's not stupid.

 

You are calling for heads to roll. How is dropping them in the order causing heads to roll?

[jersey cubs fan]

Eh, 4 games under .500 on May 10 wouldn't cause me to panic even if I had high expectations coming into the season.

 

My mind is much more focused on securing the best possible opportunities starting in 2011.

 

4 games under .500, 10th place in the wild card.

 

It's a fairly daunting task.

[dew1679666265]

Eh, 4 games under .500 on May 10 wouldn't cause me to panic even if I had high expectations coming into the season.

 

My mind is much more focused on securing the best possible opportunities starting in 2011.

 

4 games under .500, 10th place in the wild card.

 

It's a fairly daunting task.

 

130 games to go makes it less so.

[dew1679666265]

Aramis is pretty stupid if he decided to take time off in a season where he could opt out and get paid.

 

No kidding. Any talk like he's slacking off or burnt out or whatever is just absurd. He has every motivation to do well this year in what his likely his last opportunity for a really big payday.

 

Except for the fact that he has a player option for next year, that at this point, he would be crazy to opt out of.

 

Isn't the player option the exact reason why he wouldn't be slacking off in the offseason and into this year? That's the point N&G is making and I think it's valid.

[erik316wttn]

Eh, 4 games under .500 on May 10 wouldn't cause me to panic even if I had high expectations coming into the season.

 

My mind is much more focused on securing the best possible opportunities starting in 2011.

 

4 games under .500, 10th place in the wild card.

 

It's a fairly daunting task.

 

130 games to go makes it less so.

 

Yes, but expecting this team to play 20 games over .500 the rest of the way to get to 89 wins seems a bit unrealistic considering the extreme difficulty they have getting above .500 currently.

 

edit: I meant over, not under

Edited May 10, 2010 by erik316wttn

[dew1679666265]

Eh, 4 games under .500 on May 10 wouldn't cause me to panic even if I had high expectations coming into the season.

 

My mind is much more focused on securing the best possible opportunities starting in 2011.

 

4 games under .500, 10th place in the wild card.

 

It's a fairly daunting task.

 

130 games to go makes it less so.

 

Yes, but expecting this team to play 20 games under .500 the rest of the way to get to 89 wins seems a bit unrealistic considering the extreme difficulty they have getting above .500 currently.

 

I agree, but there's a big, big difference between 4 games under .500 and 10 back of the WC with 50 games left and the same scenario with 130 games left. There's still time to improve, but improving enough will be difficult.

 

To clarify a bit more, I don't think how many teams are ahead of us in the WC race right now really matters that much. We're not in the stretch run and none of the teams in front of us have proven themselves as quality teams. The record right now means much more than how many teams are in front of us.

Edited May 10, 2010 by dew

[hardcorecubfan]

How can Nady and Fontenot be spun as scapegoats at this point?

 

That was a poor choice of words, they are the sacrificial lambs that are used as a token of Hendry's idea of "look I am trying something" philosophy.

[Sammy Sofa]

Aramis is pretty stupid if he decided to take time off in a season where he could opt out and get paid.

 

No kidding. Any talk like he's slacking off or burnt out or whatever is just absurd. He has every motivation to do well this year in what his likely his last opportunity for a really big payday.

 

Except for the fact that he has a player option for next year, that at this point, he would be crazy to opt out of.

 

That was my point. He can opt out after this season. If he doesn't he's potentially on the Cubs for the next two seasons. This is his best shot for one last truly epic payday since he'd be 34 if he's on the Cubs through the 2012 season.

[Sammy Sofa]

How can Nady and Fontenot be spun as scapegoats at this point?

 

That was a poor choice of words, they are the sacrificial lambs that are used as a token of Hendry's idea of "look I am trying something" philosophy.

 

Trying what?

[SouthSideRyan]

It was my point. You just stole it.

[Outshined_One]

I agree, but there's a big, big difference between 4 games under .500 and 10 back of the WC with 50 games left and the same scenario with 130 games left. There's still time to improve, but improving enough will be difficult.

 

The worrying thing to me is that the Cubs supposedly have played the "easy" part of their schedule. My numbers might be a bit off, but as of today, the combined record of the Cubs' opponents is 116-133 (.465). It would be one thing if the Cubs had played a really difficult stretch against teams like the Cardinals, Phillies, Padres, and Giants...but the Cubs haven't played any of those teams yet.

 

If this team can't post a winning record against teams like the Pirates and the Astros, they're in serious trouble.

[lumafia]

Really? Dropping Lee and Rami in the order is stupid? Sorry...how silly of me. Let's continue to allow them to hit a combined 180 in the middle of our order. That's not stupid.

 

You are calling for heads to roll. How is dropping them in the order causing heads to roll?

 

Did you read the post, or just the first sentence? I clearly stated that they need to be dropped to the bottom of the lineup.

[Sammy Sofa]

Really? Dropping Lee and Rami in the order is stupid? Sorry...how silly of me. Let's continue to allow them to hit a combined 180 in the middle of our order. That's not stupid.

 

You are calling for heads to roll. How is dropping them in the order causing heads to roll?

 

Did you read the post, or just the first sentence? I clearly stated that they need to be dropped to the bottom of the lineup.

 

That's not "heads rolling." That's just dropping guys in the lineup.

[Rob]

Just for the sake of discussion, I have the following lines adjusted to reflect their expected BABIPs instead of their actual.

 

Derrek Lee - .268/.380/.392

Aramis Ramirez - .230/.289/.344

 

Always a notoriously slow starter before his time with the Cubs, Derrek's line would look pretty much the same as it does most seasons if his HR/FB ratio weren't quite so low at the moment. That's likely to pick up as the weather warms up, and I see very little reason to be concerned about his production this season. All this talk about dropping him way down in the order or benching him is stupid.

 

Aramis is flat out struggling though. There's no way around it. It's not that he's swinging at junk out of the zone, either. He's just been completely unable to make contact on fastballs in the strike zone this season. Whether it's a timing issue that can be fixed or his bat slowing down remains to be seen, but I have a hard time selling low on a player as good as Aramis has been. He may be able to use a few days off to work on things some more, but again... the idea of benching him is ridiculous. Who are we going to run out there instead? Best to get Aramis the reps he needs to work on things hoping he can turn it around, because if we're running Bobby Scales out there every day, this season is lost already.

[jersey cubs fan]

Really? Dropping Lee and Rami in the order is stupid? Sorry...how silly of me. Let's continue to allow them to hit a combined 180 in the middle of our order. That's not stupid.

 

You are calling for heads to roll. How is dropping them in the order causing heads to roll?

 

Did you read the post, or just the first sentence? I clearly stated that they need to be dropped to the bottom of the lineup.

 

Yes I read it. And it was a whole lot of words to say very little. You start off talking about heads needing to roll and then say the lineup should move a little. Lineup position is not all that important, so I am having a hard time rationalizing your apparent sense of urgency for something big to happen, with a request for something relatively meaningless to happen.

[biittner77]

Nuts & Gum wrote:

mean, you can't really slam Ricketts if he promotes Sandberg. I defy anyone to show me an owner that wouldn't go with such an obvious golden choice in terms of making the fans and the media happy.

 

The owner of the Orioles hasn't made Cal Ripken Jr. Manager of the Orioles.

 

What do I win?