Cubs, Marmol avoid arbitration

[Rob]

Skip Schumaker signed a 2yr $4.75m deal today with the Cardinals to avoid arbitration further proving that Hendry should stick to his guns.

 

Schumaker career line: .301/.356/.399/.757

Theriot career line: .288/.356/.369/.726

 

UZR ranks Theriot better defensively, but most seem to be in agreement on here that UZR is flawed and Theriot's defense isn't anything special.

NSBB would be such a better place if only this were true...

 

Nobody should take it as the gospel or anything. There's wiggle room to it same as any other metric. But the amount of hate UZR gets for being "inconsistent" is absurd... and I'll take a few seasons worth of UZR data over the opinions of 99% of the people on this board. There simply aren't many people here watching nearly enough games to have any real idea of what average defense is at a given position anymore.

 

That's to say nothing of fans tendency to overvalue guys who make spectacular diving plays when a better defender would have gotten to the ball easily... or the fact that guys who look awkward in the field are immediately thought of as below average, even if they have more than enough range or arm to cover it.

 

Bottom line, UZR is the best we got.

[davearm2]

Hey I've got nothing but good things to say about the sabermetricians and analysts that are busy developing metrics like UZR. Effectively measuring defensive value is clearly the next big thing in baseball. It's been given little or no attention for decades, and that's clearly a problem.

 

But the key word is "effectively".

 

I just don't think we've reached a point of having something that's truly reliable and valuable.

 

So until we do, I will continue to cringe when I read lectures on subjects like Fuld vs. Dye, or how Fukudome is a big liability in CF but a big asset in RF. These sorts of premises are built almost completely on faulty (IMO) data.

[Sammy Sofa]

or the fact that guys who look awkward in the field are immediately thought of as below average, even if they have more than enough range or arm to cover it.

 

Which doesn't describe Theriot at all.

 

That's what it comes down to me: putting my resentment of him aside, there's simply no way he can be accurately rated as high as he is defensively given the weakness of both his range and his throwing arm. UZR might be the "best" system at the moment, but that doesn't mean it's actually accurate. Defensive metrics are still very much a work in progress.

[SouthSideRyan]

Hey I've got nothing but good things to say about the sabermetricians and analysts that are busy developing metrics like UZR.

 

I've got plent of awful things to say about the guy who developed UZR

[dew1679666265]

What he asked for has nothing to do with what he'll get though. I don't really think that he'll get 3.4 from arbitration this year. But, unless Theriot wins the lottery, there's no way in hell he's EVER making 10 million in a single season.

 

It does have something to do with what he'll get. The fact that he's asking for $3.4 million likely isn't what's annoying Hendry. It's probably that he's unwilling to negotiate from it. Hendry has always avoided arbitration by finding a point in the middle of the club's offer and the player's demands. It appears that Theriot won't budge from what he's asking, though.

 

If it goes to arbitration, it'll be the first time a player has gone to arbitration under Hendry and one of the two numbers will be selected. So Theriot's asking price has a lot to do with this.

 

I'll clarify what I meant by that statement actually. Just because Theriot is ASKING for 3.4 this year, doesn't mean he'll be getting 5 mill next year or 10 mill as his 3rd arb year. I really see him losing his case this year personally anyway. And when I saw the numbers exchanged, I thought 2.6 was very fair and I think Hendry SHOULD stick to his guns on this one.

 

I agree with you that Hendry has to be steamed though, since it appears as if Theriot isn't budging from his figure at all. But, it also seemed like Hendry thought the 2.6 figure was extremely fair as well, if I can remember what Bruce had blogged.(could be mistaken, but I got the impression that neither side was going to give in this time)Either way though, Jim has always taken pride in not having to go to arbitration with anyone and this seems destined to do just that. And it probably steams Jim even more that it's Theriot, who has always kind of seemed like a "teachers pet" to Hendry and Lou, at least to me.

 

In the end, I think that the wall is being written on as we speak and ironically, 2010's goat will be Theriot. Castro should be ready by 2011, if not sooner and this could just be the early start of unceremoniously dumping Theriot for next to nothing over the next offseason, or even non-tendering him possibly. It's the Cub way to make guys look bad when they're on the way out the door in most cases and I'm starting to think that this is the start of a year long Theriot bash in the infant stages......

 

Ok, I get what you were saying now.

 

I do think Theriot will be dealt by next offseason, but I don't know that Hendry will come out and publicly criticize him. If Castro takes over for him at some point this year, though, that'll really hurt his trade value.

[Eric Clipperton]

Hey I've got nothing but good things to say about the sabermetricians and analysts that are busy developing metrics like UZR.

 

I've got plent of awful things to say about the guy who developed UZR

 

haha, I'm right with you on this, MGL is terrible. He makes a ton of mistakes for being so arrogant, in addition to being horribly repetitive yet somehow unclear in his writing. He makes me mad about 1 in every 3 posts, I think.

[Cubswin11]

So when is the date for this thing? I know all cases are heard over a 2 week span and they aren't "allowed" to release the date of individual hearings, but they always seem to make it out.

[treebird]

whatever happened to "look at all the metrics and assume the things they agree on are right?"

 

it really seems to me that all that's happened here is that uzr got really easily accessible and now everyone wants to just use it and shut their brains off.

 

theriot's bad. not terrible, but certainly not average either. if uzr wants to disagree, that's a black mark against it.

[Sammy Sofa]

It should just be common sense that Theriot is not an average SS defensively. He doesn't have the range; he clearly doesn't have the arm. He's got some speed, but not nearly enough to make up for his other defensive deficiencies. Theriot could basically be the poster child for how UZR's flaws.

[Guest]

whatever happened to "look at all the metrics and assume the things they agree on are right?"

 

it really seems to me that all that's happened here is that uzr got really easily accessible and now everyone wants to just use it and shut their brains off.

 

theriot's bad. not terrible, but certainly not average either. if uzr wants to disagree, that's a black mark against it.

 

I don't have access to Dewan's +/- right now, but UZR has Theriot as about a +5 fielder, and PMR characterizes him about exactly average(100 on their scale).

[Rob]

whatever happened to "look at all the metrics and assume the things they agree on are right?"

 

it really seems to me that all that's happened here is that uzr got really easily accessible and now everyone wants to just use it and shut their brains off.

 

theriot's bad. not terrible, but certainly not average either. if uzr wants to disagree, that's a black mark against it.

 

I don't have access to Dewan's +/- right now, but UZR has Theriot as about a +5 fielder, and PMR characterizes him about exactly average(100 on their scale).

 

I left my bill james handbook at my parents house, but if memory serves he was listed among neither the leaders nor the trailers. The DT translations suck, but they have Theriot floating around average. (+5 last year, -4 the year before) Hell, even the basic ESPN stats have him floating around average. He's 12th of 22 qualified SS in fielding percentage and 14th in Range Factor. 8th in Zone Rating.

 

Edit:

 

Not that any of those numbers mean a damn thing. Just pointing it out.

[Deder]

Fan scouting report has him as one of the worst for what it is worth. Biggest issue with fan scouting is usually positioning of the fielder. A smart fielder who positions himself well can make a significant difference that fans just won't notice. Cal Ripken as an example was great at this.

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/index6.php?prim_fld_cd=6

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

So the debate is between the scouting prowess of a bunch of amateurs vs. a defensive metric which most would agree is very much a work in progress? Can we call it a draw until 2012? Or at least agree no one is certain of anything?