Cubs Top 10 Going into Next Season

[jersey cubs fan]

Fun discussion. Blues has some very fair points: Castro to date has been a no-walk singles hitter with a lot of errors. Optimism about his future performance is based on projection and scouting:

 

Isn't it mostly about the fact that he's done well playing at high levels for his age?

 

That's certainly part of it but but lots of players perform well early but are never able to build on that success. Dopirak for example was seen as a guy that may have trouble adjusting as he climbed the ladder and that turned out to be true. With Castro he has skills that could still be developed.

 

That's the complete opposite of what I said. He's done well at advanced levels for his age. Dopirak was mediocre in short season and low A ball at 19, Castro was successful in high A and AA at 19. It's not at all the same thing.

[craig]

...He's done well at advanced levels for his age. ...

 

Sure.

 

Perhaps every .734-OPS high-errors singles hitter generates as much excitement as Castro, if they do it as his age and level.

 

My subjective impression is that the expectations and projections seem a little beyond what is normally expected for a high-errors .734-OPS singles hitter, even a young one. So I think scouting evaluations are making a significant impact on his reputation beyond just the existing statistical record.

[jersey cubs fan]

...He's done well at advanced levels for his age. ...

 

Sure.

 

Perhaps every .734-OPS high-errors singles hitter generates as much excitement as Castro.

 

My subjective impression is that the expectations and projections seem a little beyond what is normally expected for a high-errors .734-OPS singles hitter, even a young one. So I think scouting evaluations are making a significant impact on his reputation beyond just the existing statistical record.

 

So the 743 OPS in AA at age 19 with a near 1:1 K:BB ratio isn't behind the excitement, it's just scouting evaluations that say he might be good one day?

[CUBZ99]

...He's done well at advanced levels for his age. ...

 

Sure.

 

Perhaps every .734-OPS high-errors singles hitter generates as much excitement as Castro.

 

My subjective impression is that the expectations and projections seem a little beyond what is normally expected for a high-errors .734-OPS singles hitter, even a young one. So I think scouting evaluations are making a significant impact on his reputation beyond just the existing statistical record.

 

So the 743 OPS in AA at age 19 with a near 1:1 K:BB ratio isn't behind the excitement, it's just scouting evaluations that say he might be good one day?

 

Not to mention his .871 OPS in over 100 abs in the Arizona Fall League against very good competition.

 

Sure Castro could flop, but there is plenty to be excited about. One area where scouting is extremely helpful in regard to Castro is his defense. Most scouts rate his defense much higher than what his error totals would lead you to believe.

[Cubswin11]

...He's done well at advanced levels for his age. ...

 

Sure.

 

Perhaps every .734-OPS high-errors singles hitter generates as much excitement as Castro.

 

My subjective impression is that the expectations and projections seem a little beyond what is normally expected for a high-errors .734-OPS singles hitter, even a young one. So I think scouting evaluations are making a significant impact on his reputation beyond just the existing statistical record.

 

So the 743 OPS in AA at age 19 with a near 1:1 K:BB ratio isn't behind the excitement, it's just scouting evaluations that say he might be good one day?

 

Not to mention his .871 OPS in over 100 abs in the Arizona Fall League against very good competition.

 

Sure Castro could flop, but there is plenty to be excited about. One area where scouting is extremely helpful in regard to Castro is his defense. Most scouts rate his defense much higher than what his error totals would lead you to believe.

Are Castro's errors mostly throwing or fielding? Or are they pretty equal?

[CUBZ99]

...He's done well at advanced levels for his age. ...

 

Sure.

 

Perhaps every .734-OPS high-errors singles hitter generates as much excitement as Castro.

 

My subjective impression is that the expectations and projections seem a little beyond what is normally expected for a high-errors .734-OPS singles hitter, even a young one. So I think scouting evaluations are making a significant impact on his reputation beyond just the existing statistical record.

 

So the 743 OPS in AA at age 19 with a near 1:1 K:BB ratio isn't behind the excitement, it's just scouting evaluations that say he might be good one day?

 

Not to mention his .871 OPS in over 100 abs in the Arizona Fall League against very good competition.

 

Sure Castro could flop, but there is plenty to be excited about. One area where scouting is extremely helpful in regard to Castro is his defense. Most scouts rate his defense much higher than what his error totals would lead you to believe.

Are Castro's errors mostly throwing or fielding? Or are they pretty equal?

 

I don't have a breakdown of the variety, but all of the scouting reports that I have seen rate him as having plus range, with a solid accurate arm.

[Northside Blues]

So the 743 OPS in AA at age 19 with a near 1:1 K:BB ratio isn't behind the excitement, it's just scouting evaluations that say he might be good one day?

I am not sure that going to bat with the intention on ending the atbat in three pitches or less is something to make us excited. Craig is right. The likelihood of him developing into an impact player is so small that he probably only be a 50-75 type prospect. There are a lot of guys with higher upside and a greater chance of reaching it, that is my point.

 

Also a K:BB of 1 is only meaningful if you walk a lot. Not walking and not striking out is hardly a good thing.

[Northside Blues]

Some scouts have him with below average range and he may need to move to second down the road.

[Cubswin11]

Some scouts have him with below average range and he may need to move to second down the road.

I have never seen that, the only mention of him moving to 2B is the outside chance that both he and HJ Lee reach the majors and fulfill most of their potential and that Lee may move Castro to 2B just due to the fact Lee's potential on defense is much higher.

[craig]

I agree with Cubsin, it seems there have been a lot of very favorable reports on his SS defensive tools. I think the 2b-move stuff relates to three factors: Theriot is more stable than Fontenot, so for now it would be easier for Castro to beat out or share time with Fontenot than Theriot. 2nd, there are many who see Lee as a pure defensive SS, without power; and if you assume both guys end up being a long-term DP combo, it's easy to figure the stronger Castro could better fit the 2B profile. 3rd, there are some who expect Castro to get significantly bigger. This obviously varies from source to source. I seem to recall callis or somebody projecting Castro to perhaps end up at 6'3" 210 or something. Not sure that view is very widely held, but you can't have it both ways. If he's going to grow into a lot more size, thus facilitating a major boost in power, that isn't likely to happen without involving some reduction in both baserunning and defensive speed.

 

But my understanding is that most people think he has very good defensive tools. And can make spectacular defensive plays. It's just that at present he makes errors, and he'll have to reduce those to be a quality big-league SS.

 

I think we have to remember that for any players, there are routinely a wide variety of scouting opinions. The scouting sources don't always see a guy all that much. That some rave about his defense and others say average now and will move later, that's not unusual. That some may say below-average arm while most say really good arm, that kind of range of opinion is routine. That somebody thinks he could end up 210 with 25-HR power, and others don't think he'll ever be more than 190, that's normal.

[craig]

So the 743 OPS in AA at age 19 with a near 1:1 K:BB ratio isn't behind the excitement, it's just scouting evaluations that say he might be good one day?

 

It's not "just" scouting. It's both, but the scouting is a major factor. If he had the same numbers, but the scouts didn't say that he had a great arm, good defensive potential, a quick and really promising stroke, strong wrists, and the frame with potential to add power, his OPS wouldn't have him rated as enthusiastically as many of the major do. If he'd hit .210 in AA, he wouldn't be raved as much, either, or if he'd K'd 25% of his AB's. He got his singles and didn't strike out, and that's good. But if the scouts didn't like his swing, his frame, and that he "looks" like a player, I don't think he'd be so consistently getting listed as one of the top-50 prospects in the game. It's both.

 

...Craig is right. The likelihood of him developing into an impact player is so small that he probably only be a 50-75 type prospect. There are a lot of guys with higher upside and a greater chance of reaching it, that is my point.

 

That's an opinion, and it's yours more than mine. I have no reason to think the scouts and BA and Law type people are wrong to rank him where they do. I have a lot of respect for their experience and insight and sources. But I also know that there are lots of prospects who get rated that high who don't turn out, and that if he doesn't improve on a lot of areas that he won't either. But I don't think it's just his low-K-singles performance last year that has scouts so buzzed. I think they see qualities common to many good big-leaguers beyond the ability to hit singles and not strike out.

 

Is he going to be an "impact player" star? I don't know, and as you say it's a matter of likelihood. Most guys who are ranked where he is do NOT become "impact players" or stars. Some do; some become good but not special; some become average; some never become even that; and some bust entirely. I hope he ends on the favorable end of that spectrum.

 

But every player is unique, and some stop improving at younger ages than others. For Castro to become a good regular, he's going to need to keep improving. His errors, his power, his walks, those are three obvious areas that need improvement to become useful. If he stays what he is, a high-error singles hitter who doesn't walk, he's not going to be very valuable. He needs to improve. I think that's very likely, but it's not certain and how far he'll improve I can't claim to know. I think the projections of the scouting community are better than my own.

 

I'm hoping he becomes really good, so I'm more concerned that he'll just be average then that he'll bust entirely. Neifi and Cesar Izturis were very good fielders who didn't K and hit singles, and who started a lot of games and made a lot of money. I want Castro to hit with a lot more power and reach base more often than they did. I think players like that kind of represent his floor. (Neither was in AA at his age; and neither is as tall. So it's not like they his equals as 19-year-old prospects.)

 

...Also a K:BB of 1 is only meaningful if you walk a lot. Not walking and not striking out is hardly a good thing.

 

I think this is only partially true. Not striking out is an inherently good quality, and it manifest the inate ability to put the bat on the ball, including breaking balls. Many players don't have that and never get it. To have such good recognition/response ability to handle AA-pitching at age 19 is very rare. There are plenty of older players in A+/AA whose power and walks gave them much higher OPS than Castro had; but who don't have that gift. And I think if a guy has that gift, and later adds more strength, that could enable substantial upgrade in IsoP down the road.

[CUBZ99]

Some scouts have him with below average range and he may need to move to second down the road.

 

Please post links to these reports. I would be interested to know who these scouts are and see what else they have to say about Castro. Good to get both viewpoints.

[toonsterwu]

Some scouts have him with below average range and he may need to move to second down the road.

 

There's a difference between range and speed. I haven't seen many people critique his range - he has very good lateral movement. The criticism has largely been about his speed, as his C-1st time is slow, despite the fact that his raw speed is considered anywhere from average to plus (there was one report that suggested plus speed).

[toonsterwu]

Side note, I think performance has mattered in Castro's rankings, but that the scouting reports are what is pushing him forward as a solid top 50 prospect, with several top 30 rankings and a few top 20 rankings. For example, the difference in performance between Ruben Tejeda and Starlin Castro isn't much, but Tejeda isn't considered in the same class as Castro. This only speaks to perceived value, but it also is one way to show how the scouting reports are playing a big factor in Castro's rankings.

[davell]

I'm pretty sure it was Goldstein who said that Castro may need to move off SS. But, he's the only one I've seen say anything like that at all. And from everything I've read, most of Castro's errors have been on balls he's bobbles and then made rushed throws on. Daytona has one of, if not, the worst infield in all of the minors. Alot of his errors were of the variety that someone who can play a solid 1B would have dug the ball and saved alot of them from being errors.......

[SouthSideRyan]

Some scouts have him with below average range and he may need to move to second down the road.

 

Name them.

[Guest]

Some scouts have him with below average range and he may need to move to second down the road.

 

Name them.

 

Yeah, I haven't heard this.

[Guancous]

Some scouts have him with below average range and he may need to move to second down the road.

 

Name them.

 

Yeah, I haven't heard this.

 

Ive only heard that Castro might move if Lee is even better. That still wouldn't hurt his trade value at all.

[Guest]

Comparing Castro

 

The author uses BR to find 7 players with similar development paths. Among them are Jose Reyes, Roberto Alomar, Elvis Andrus, Jose Lopez, and Garry Templeton.