Cubs Top 10 Going into Next Season

[THISisTHEyear09]

1) Starlin Castro- SS/2B

 

Castro has emerged as the number 1 prospect in the organization with an outstanding fall in the Arizona Fall League. He’s got improving power and plate coverage as well as above average speed. His hands and range are absolutely outstanding and scouts have raved that he’s ready for the big leagues defensively. At 19- he’s got some time to continue to develop and I think it’s extremely important to not rush him to the big leagues. Nonetheless- he has the potential and raw tools to be a very very very good major league player and a mainstay at SS/2B for the Cubs for a long time. He’ll make good strides this upcoming year and might even get a taste of the bigs in September.

 

2) Andrew Cashner SP/RP

 

Cashner is a first round pick with a power arm. The question is where does Cashner fit into the Cubs plans? Is he a starter? Is he a reliever? With a mid to upper 90’s fastball and a hard slider he’s got all the makings of being an outstanding late inning reliever. However, over the past year- Cashner has improved his command of a third pitch. A change up which could make or break him in terms of where he’ll end up. He’ll continue experimenting with his secondary pitchers and will have a successful year.

 

3) Josh Vitters- 3B

 

Vitters is still learning how to hit at the professional level, but is coming along nicely. He’s a line drive hitter which bodes well for the Cubs down the road. Josh is still learning how to play a professional third base, and there’s a chance he’ll end up in the outfield in a year or two. Vitters from an offensive standpoint really reminds me of someone like Ryan Zimmerman with better plate coverage, and patience. Vitter’s will have a productive year and I think we’ll see Josh at Wrigley sooner rather than later- but the plan is to bring him along slowly.

 

4) Jay Jackson- SP

 

I’m a big Jay Jackson fan. He throws a ton of strikes and throws pretty darn hard if you ask me. Both are important in terms of being a Major League Starter, and I believe 2010 will be a big year for Jay. He could be a quality third starter in the bigs for several years baring health. I think this year will prove if he can stay healthy and be a consistent/dependable arm. He has all the makings of a good starter, but will see.

 

5) Hak Ju Lee-SS

 

Could he be the double play partner of Starlin Castro in 3 years? Absolutely. Lee is a contact hitter as of right now but i think could end up being someone like Ryan Theriot with more Athleticism which in no way is a bad thing. He can really pick it and he’s another year off Tommy John Surgery so I think we’ll know more about this kid this year. Could be used as a sweetner in a trade if something comes up in the near future. Doesn’t Lee at SS and Castro at 2B sound really good, will have to wait a couple of years to see that if it ever does happen.

 

6) Tyler Colvin-OF

 

Colvin missed some time after having TJ surgery, but made his debut last year. Colvin’s knack has been his durability and plate patience as he doesn’t walk a ton- but he still has some offensive upside. If he gets a little bigger, a little stronger, there’s no reason why the first rounder from Clemson can’t hit 15-19 home runs playing centerfield in Wrigley. He’s got above average speed but is far from a demon. He’s a solid defender with a run through the wall type mentality which Cub fans will love if given the opportunity. I think 2010 will tell us if Colvin is going to be in the long term plans or a guy that’ll be traded.

 

7) David Cales-RP

 

Cales was the Cubs reliever of the year and is a Chicago kid, whos mom works for the dreaded white sox! He’s got a funky delivery and is extremely deceptive, but he’s always around the plate. I’ve heard from scouts his slider makes batters knees wobble which explains his high K rating. Work on the average control and he could definitely force his way into the bullpen in 2011 with another strong campaign.

 

8) Chris Archer- S

Now bring on down the unpredictable Chris Archer!! Possessing a heavy fastball in the mid 90’s and a real real good breaking ball, he was able to put up some astonishing numbers this year including 6 hits per 9 innings pitched while striking out 119 in 109 innings, but most of all not allowing a single homerun this past season. That to me is outrageous and a real sign that his stuff is really really difficult to square up. His command is his enemy and the only reason he isn’t a top 3 guy. The kid has been said to have a good work ethic along with a good head on his shoulders and great off the field attitude. I my opinion he will continue to leave batters with their jaws on the dirt in the batters box this year. A break threw season could be in the making for young archer.

 

9) Brett Jackson- OF

 

Jackson was the cubs 2009 first overall pick out of Cal Berkeley and played well in his short time in the minors last year. He’s got a good head on his shoulders, is extremely athletic and could end up being a monster at some point. I don’t think you’ll see him in 2010, but if Marlon Byrd struggles this year, and Colvin doesn’t win the job- look for Jackson to emerge as the favorite in 2011.

 

10) Ryan Flaherty-SS

Just a smart player. He’s extremely steady and does all the little things really well. I don’t think he’ll ever be an all star, but as a backup infielder/platoon type guy? Absolutely. Another good but not stellar year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I love Cales as a prospect more than anyone this side of his family, but he's not close to the number 7 guy in the system.

[TruffleShuffle]

1. castro

2. vitters

3. cashner

4. jay jackson

5. brett jackson

6. hak-ju lee

7. chris carpenter

8. kyler burke

9. ryan flaherty

10. brooks raley

[A-Cal]

hak-ju lee has won two straight MVP honors in Baseball Power Pros. for the Cubs. The potential is there!

[Wrigley Rat]

1 - Starlin Castro

2 - Josh Vitters

3 - Andrew Cashner

4 - Brett Jackson

5 - Jay Jackson

6 - Kyler Burke

7 - Hak-Ju Lee

8 - D.J. LeMahieu

9 - Ryan Flaherty

10 - Welington Castillo

 

Just missed:

- Brooks Raley

- Chris Archer

- Logan Watkins

- Dae-Eun Rhee

[Cubswin11]

1. Starlin Castro

2. Josh Vitters

3. Andrew Cashner

4. Jay Jackson

5. Brett Jackson

6. Kyler Burke

7. Hak Ju Lee

8. Chris Carpenter

9. Chris Archer

10. Ryan Flaherty

 

Others Considered (guys to be considered 11-20):

D.J. LeMahieu

Logan Watkins

Austin Kirk

Brooks Raley

Dae Eun Rhee

Wellington Castillo

Kenneth McNutt

Tyler Colvin

John Gaub

Darwin Barney

[TruffleShuffle]

1 - Starlin Castro

2 - Josh Vitters

3 - Andrew Cashner

4 - Brett Jackson

5 - Jay Jackson

6 - Kyler Burke

7 - Hak-Ju Lee

8 - D.J. LeMahieu

9 - Ryan Flaherty

10 - Welington Castillo

 

Just missed:

- Brooks Raley

- Chris Archer

- Logan Watkins

- Dae-Eun Rhee

 

no carpenter??? i'd think he'd have to make the top 14.

[Wrigley Rat]

1 - Starlin Castro

2 - Josh Vitters

3 - Andrew Cashner

4 - Brett Jackson

5 - Jay Jackson

6 - Kyler Burke

7 - Hak-Ju Lee

8 - D.J. LeMahieu

9 - Ryan Flaherty

10 - Welington Castillo

 

Just missed:

- Brooks Raley

- Chris Archer

- Logan Watkins

- Dae-Eun Rhee

 

no carpenter??? i'd think he'd have to make the top 14.

Throw him into the top 15, but where he fits 11-15 is up for debate for me.

I have a few concerns for him:

- he has been a year too old for his levels, until AA last year where he went 0-3 and posted just average numbers,

- his numbers in college never showed much (I know about his injury history...),

- I think guys like Rhee, Archer, and Raley may ultimately have better stuff,

 

Reasons for including Archer, Rhee, and Raley:

- Chris Archer was amazing at Peoria last year as a 20 year old. More K's than IP, very few hits, 0 HR's in 109 IP.

- Dae-Eun Rhee was the Cubs #4 prospect last year and had success in 40 IP at Peoria. High signing bonus/solid scouting reports. I'm a little worried about how he recovers from surgery, though.

- Brooks Raley had a good college career, high signing bonus, and is a lefty with great stuff.

- Chris Carpenter seems to fit well in that group - which order would people put these four guys & why???

[scarey]

1. Josh Vitters

2. Starlin Castro

3. Andrew Cashner

4. Jay Jackson

5. Brett Jackson

6. Hak-Ju Lee

7. Chris Carpenter

8. Kyler Burke

9. Ryan Flaherty

10. Blake Parker

 

I realize it's a little unorthadox.

[davell]

1 - Starlin Castro

2 - Josh Vitters

3 - Andrew Cashner

4 - Brett Jackson

5 - Jay Jackson

6 - Kyler Burke

7 - Hak-Ju Lee

8 - D.J. LeMahieu

9 - Ryan Flaherty

10 - Welington Castillo

 

Just missed:

- Brooks Raley

- Chris Archer

- Logan Watkins

- Dae-Eun Rhee

 

no carpenter??? i'd think he'd have to make the top 14.

Throw him into the top 15, but where he fits 11-15 is up for debate for me.

I have a few concerns for him:

- he has been a year too old for his levels, until AA last year where he went 0-3 and posted just average numbers,

- his numbers in college never showed much (I know about his injury history...),

- I think guys like Rhee, Archer, and Raley may ultimately have better stuff,

 

Reasons for including Archer, Rhee, and Raley:

- Chris Archer was amazing at Peoria last year as a 20 year old. More K's than IP, very few hits, 0 HR's in 109 IP.

- Dae-Eun Rhee was the Cubs #4 prospect last year and had success in 40 IP at Peoria. High signing bonus/solid scouting reports. I'm a little worried about how he recovers from surgery, though.

- Brooks Raley had a good college career, high signing bonus, and is a lefty with great stuff.

- Chris Carpenter seems to fit well in that group - which order would people put these four guys & why???

 

 

For now, I think you have to go by their most recent accomplishments. Which, for me would put them Carpenter, Archer, Rhee, and Raley, in that order. Carpenter had a very solid year and although his age is a tad high, he's been hurt some, which contributes to that. Archer was great last year, although I would have liked to see him go deeper into some games. Hopefully that happens this year. Rhee WAS great in 2008, but now is a question mark obviously. Raley would be last for me, because we really have nothing to go on of him, other than college.

 

After the upcoming season though, I'm going to predict we look at these guys in THIS order here......Archer/Raley/Rhee/Carpenter. If Archer has a good year at Daytona, he'll start moving up lists quickly. I DO think Raley will succeed, especially with him concentrating on pitching for the first time in his career. I have no idea what to think of Rhee, other than AZ Phil's reports at the end of the season. I figure he comes back but won't have his true stuff until 2011. And although I have Carpenter 1st if I rank them right now, I don't see him staying healthy enough longterm to where we can count on him for anything more than middle relief.

 

Going into the 2010 season, my top 10 looks like this:

1 Castro

2 J Jackson

3 Vitters

4 Lee

5 B Jackson

6 Cashner

7 Burke

8 Carpenter

9 Watkins

10 Archer

 

But, I really think we will see something completely different next year, as I expect Castro and one of J Jackson or Cashner to graduate.......And I think we'll be talking about Lee as a consensus top 50 guy, with Burke making a run at the top 100 as well. I think Antigua, Kim, Raley and LeMahieu all have an excellent chance at finishing next year in our top 10 as well.

[Wrigley Rat]

1 - Starlin Castro

2 - Josh Vitters

3 - Andrew Cashner

4 - Brett Jackson

5 - Jay Jackson

6 - Kyler Burke

7 - Hak-Ju Lee

8 - D.J. LeMahieu

9 - Ryan Flaherty

10 - Welington Castillo

 

Just missed:

- Brooks Raley

- Chris Archer

- Logan Watkins

- Dae-Eun Rhee

 

no carpenter??? i'd think he'd have to make the top 14.

Throw him into the top 15, but where he fits 11-15 is up for debate for me.

I have a few concerns for him:

- he has been a year too old for his levels, until AA last year where he went 0-3 and posted just average numbers,

- his numbers in college never showed much (I know about his injury history...),

- I think guys like Rhee, Archer, and Raley may ultimately have better stuff,

 

Reasons for including Archer, Rhee, and Raley:

- Chris Archer was amazing at Peoria last year as a 20 year old. More K's than IP, very few hits, 0 HR's in 109 IP.

- Dae-Eun Rhee was the Cubs #4 prospect last year and had success in 40 IP at Peoria. High signing bonus/solid scouting reports. I'm a little worried about how he recovers from surgery, though.

- Brooks Raley had a good college career, high signing bonus, and is a lefty with great stuff.

- Chris Carpenter seems to fit well in that group - which order would people put these four guys & why???

 

 

For now, I think you have to go by their most recent accomplishments. Which, for me would put them Carpenter, Archer, Rhee, and Raley, in that order. Carpenter had a very solid year and although his age is a tad high, he's been hurt some, which contributes to that. Archer was great last year, although I would have liked to see him go deeper into some games. Hopefully that happens this year. Rhee WAS great in 2008, but now is a question mark obviously. Raley would be last for me, because we really have nothing to go on of him, other than college.

 

After the upcoming season though, I'm going to predict we look at these guys in THIS order here......Archer/Raley/Rhee/Carpenter. If Archer has a good year at Daytona, he'll start moving up lists quickly. I DO think Raley will succeed, especially with him concentrating on pitching for the first time in his career. I have no idea what to think of Rhee, other than AZ Phil's reports at the end of the season. I figure he comes back but won't have his true stuff until 2011. And although I have Carpenter 1st if I rank them right now, I don't see him staying healthy enough longterm to where we can count on him for anything more than middle relief.

This explains my thoughts perfectly - thanks Davell. I'm just trying to stay ahead of the curve! BA does the same thing. They give some credit to a player's "stuff" and some credit to their accomplishments. That's how a Hak-Ju Lee makes it into a Top 10 list before he has any experience (last year). His ceiling is higher than the ceiling + the accomplishments of others in our system. But I do also agree that experience should be taken strongly into consideration, which is why it can be argued that Carpenter, Archer, Rhee, and Raley could be in any order.

[TruffleShuffle]

Throw him into the top 15, but where he fits 11-15 is up for debate for me.

I have a few concerns for him:

- he has been a year too old for his levels, until AA last year where he went 0-3 and posted just average numbers,

 

ok, but then i don't think it makes sense to have flaherty at #9 and not even make mention of carpenter. flaherty is two levels lower than carpenter and had a worse season, and he's only 7 months younger.

[Wrigley Rat]

Throw him into the top 15, but where he fits 11-15 is up for debate for me.

I have a few concerns for him:

- he has been a year too old for his levels, until AA last year where he went 0-3 and posted just average numbers,

 

ok, but then i don't think it makes sense to have flaherty at #9 and not even make mention of carpenter. flaherty is two levels lower than carpenter and had a worse season, and he's only 7 months younger.

Fair argument, but I do have a response! :)

Flaherty was a first round pick which tells me that he has a slightly better pedigree than 3rd round Carpenter. You can't teach power and Flaherty seems to have that. An infielder (perhaps a SS) with power is much more valuable than a 4th starter (although he may become more). The question with Flaherty is whether he will stick at SS. Still, it becomes less important with Castro coming up as a SS. Flaherty could play 2B and be valuable there. If he plays 3B, he will need to continue to develop power. 20 HR's in his first full season of professional ball is something to be excited about. And he's lefty! :)

I accept your comment, but would not put Carpenter ahead of Flaherty until I see Flaherty diminish in some of his skills, or see Carpenter excel better at his.

[toonsterwu]

I really wouldn't use the round they were picked in as a huge factor in such a discussion. Everyone understood that Carpenter dropped due to his health, otherwise he had "first round pedigree" as well.

 

I've got a hard time seeing Carpenter outside of our top 10, and to be honest, I've got a hard time seeing him out of our top 8. The fastball/curveball is an excellent combination, and the changeup is at least average. Add in level, and I think he deserves to be high.

 

My own top 10 right now sits as

 

1. Castro

2. Brett Jackson

3. Vitters

4. Jay Jackson

5. Cashner

6. Carpenter

7. Lee

8. Burke

9. Flaherty

10. Rhee

[davell]

With Brett as your 2, I'm assuming you see him playing in Tennessee at some point this season, correct?

 

Another question for toonster and everyone else as well is this: Who do you see making it to the bigs this year, even if just for a cup of coffee?

[Rob]

With Brett as your 2, I'm assuming you see him playing in Tennessee at some point this season, correct?

 

Another question for toonster and everyone else as well is this: Who do you see making it to the bigs this year, even if just for a cup of coffee?

 

Castro gets to dictate when he comes up. I keep trying to temper my expectations for him, but I'd say that as long as he has a pretty good season, he'll probably at least get a cup of coffee. If our middle infield gets banged up or he has another season like last one, he could be our starter by the deadline.

 

Cashner is a maybe. I'd like to see him get some more work in the minors as a starter to see if he doesn't have a long term future there, and there's certainly no lack of middle relief arms in the system that could do just fine if we need them. But this is the Cubs, and I'm sure Lou will be screaming for bullpen help every single day from now until the end of the season. Whether Hendry can hold out is anybody's guess.

 

The only other one of our top prospects that could force his way up is Jay Jackson, but I'd put the odds of that pretty low.

 

Aside from them, you've got the usual suspects like Gaub, Russell, Atkins, etc... for the pen or a spot start. And guys like Snyder for the bench.

[Outshined_One]

I think Cashner's the most likely candidate out of the Top 10 to end up with the Cubs at some point this season. It's easy to envision Lou Piniella being unhappy with the bullpen and wanting Cashner up as soon as possible to add reinforcements and have a guy who can easily be shuttled back and forth to help with roster issues.

[toonsterwu]

With Brett as your 2, I'm assuming you see him playing in Tennessee at some point this season, correct?

 

Another question for toonster and everyone else as well is this: Who do you see making it to the bigs this year, even if just for a cup of coffee?

 

Yes, I expect Brett, barring a collapse, will get a shot at Tennessee.

 

As for the 2nd question, out of our top 10, I think at least one of the big three arms, if not 2, will see the bigs, likely in some pen capacity. I'd guess Jay Jackson around midseason, and perhaps Cashner or Carpenter later. The reason I lean Jackson before Cashner is because I think the Cubs FO will play out the Cashner starting thing as long as possible. It's easy to forget that Jay Jackson could easily become a dominant pen arm (could focus on only one of his breaking balls to pair with a upper 90's fb; his control concerns wouldn't be as big an issue).

 

I think Castro will see the bigs barring a collapse. Whether it's September or earlier, only time will tell. Part of that may be dictated by how the club is doing - if we're playing well and in the race, they might just wait until late in the year to give him a look. If not, if we're floundering a bit, then he could be up sooner.

 

I mean, other guys will definitely see some time. Scott Maine and John Gaub could both be pen options, along with Parker. It's not hard to see a catcher get called up - all it takes is an injury. Darwin Barney may see some time as well. If an injury happens, not hard to see Jim Adduci up as a depth OF. Colvin should definitely see some time.

 

As a dark, dark, sleeper type, I wouldn't rule out the idea that another middle infielder, perhaps LeMahieu or Flaherty, sees big league time late in the year. But I'd put that on the deep backburner.

[davell]

Flaherty or LeMahieu getting called up would be very interesting. I agree that alot would have to happen for that to occur though. For some reason, I picture Flaherty having a DeRosa type career once he does get the call though. And if he does, I think that LeMahieu will then be the odd man out for us longterm. Castro as our eventual SS, Lee winding up in CF or possibly SS, with Castro moving over to 2B possibly. At any rate, it's very cool to be stacked up the middle right now......

[Wrigley Rat]

My only thoughts on players getting their first major league experiences this year is that we can only have so many people on the 40-man roster. Jim Hendry has been criticized relentlessly by people on this board who claim he is "terrible at managing the 40-man roster." If Hendry puts Castro, Jackson, Cashner, Carpenter, etc. all on the 40-man, we will end up losing several players in the Rule 5 Draft and end up having to trade away some of our depth in order to sign free agents next off-season. If I were the Cubs, I wouldn't call a player up until I was forced to put them on the 40-man as protection against the Rule 5 Draft, or until they force me to do it with outstanding play in AAA, or if there is a pressing need for that person's position. I imagine Castro may force the Cubs hand with an outstanding first half in AA and/or AAA.

[scarey]

There's always the chance that some guys could get their opportunity as a result of an injury. 1B we are not really very prepared for although Lahair or Ryne White could be possibilities. Barney or Thomas will get called up if we lose a middle infielder as long as Castro isn't the obvious choice . Marquez Smith may get an opportunity if Aramis has another major injury. Colvin is the obvious first outfielder up. And Clevenger, Chirinos, and Robinson will probably have to make themselves stand out to get picked out in the case of a Soto or Hill injury.

 

If a starter goes down mid season, Samardzija, Gorzo, Marshall, or Caridad would obviously be first in line. But if all of them are working relief in some capacity or already starting with the Cubs, I would guess Atkins, Coleman, or possibly Jackson would get an opportunity.

 

I think there are so many relief candidates lined up in waiting that it's not worth mentioning.

[craig]

Predicting who will get called up first is pretty tough, as Scarey mentioned. Who knows which position will get injured? There are also the token callups; guy is a good prospect even though he's not ready, but we just wanted to give him a September callup for the experience, or just to give him a taste of what big-league life is like. Getting called up to be the 25th man and get 2 appearances, that doesn't mean that much.

 

I think a somewhat more meaningful version of the question is to wonder which guy will really get called up because the cubs want to use him. I think all three of the pitchers, Cashner Carpenter and Jackson, all have a chance. Any of them could plateau; if they don't improve, none were ready as of August (although Jackson perhaps closest.) But each of them showed enough flashes last year that if any of them could further improve their repertoire, or could simply throw the same pitches they could throw last year but with more consistency and more command, any of those three could emerge as a guy the team might want during the summer. Carpenter included.

[CubfanBen]

I think a guy who hasn't been mentioned enough is Jeff Antigua, at least for the bottom 10. He's done nothing but put up good numbers since he was a 17 year old in the DSL, and this year could start out at Daytona as a 19 year old. He's also a lefty which is even more valuable.

[craig]

I think a guy who hasn't been mentioned enough is Jeff Antigua, at least for the bottom 10. He's done nothing but put up good numbers since he was a 17 year old in the DSL, and this year could start out at Daytona as a 19 year old. He's also a lefty which is even more valuable.

 

I think you might be right. I actually had him #8 on my list, before getting much post-season feedback. He's got a chance to throw strikes, have offspeed stuff, and throw hard enough to be a good all-around pitcher.

 

I hope.

[Northside Blues]

What is Castros upside for the next four years?