Cubs Top Prospect Lists (NSBB, BA, etc.)

[TruffleShuffle]

P.S. where do Castro, Vitters and/or Cashner rank on the Top 100? Anyone with insider?

 

12, 30 and 79

 

 

Jackson is 50

 

which jackson?

[jersey cubs fan]

Cashner closed at TCU -- which has really improved its baseball profile in the past few years (including landing the top unsigned player from the 2009 draft, lefty Matt Purke) -- but has worked as a starter in the Cubs' system. It's a big arm, with a fastball at 93-98 mph even over multiple innings and a hard slider with very good tilt in the mid-80s, with his slider command ahead of his fastball command when I saw him. He has a changeup but rarely uses it; it has some tail but mostly just glove-side run. He gets ground balls but it's not extreme, and I don't think his home run rate from 2009 indicates some preternatural ability to keep the ball in the park. What's odd about Cashner is that for a guy with a power arm, he doesn't miss a lot of bats, and neither his control nor his ground-ball rate is high enough for him to be a good starter with a low strikeout rate. If he has to return to the pen, he'll be dominant there, but the Cubs will probably let him continue to start and see if he can improve his command and find a way to miss more bats.

[jersey cubs fan]

Jackson's first full year in pro ball in 2008 was a huge success, as he jumped all the way to AA and pitched well as a starter, missing plenty of bats with his low-90s fastball and out-pitch slider. Jackson was a two-way player at Furman University, and the athleticism is evident when he's on the mound, as he has a loose, easy arm action that he repeats pretty well. He throws four pitches, with the sharp mid-80s slider his best offering, but his changeup, while improving, could still use some work, and most of his trouble this year came against left-handed hitters. Jackson's 2009 season was interrupted by a punitive demotion after he had some very minor off-field issues, and he resolved the problem enough for the Cubs to promote him to AAA for the last week of the season. He could appear in the majors this year in relief, but he has enough of a chance to start, especially if he improves the changeup or finds another weapon to use against lefties, that a year in AAA would make a lot of sense.

[jersey cubs fan]

Vitters has everything he needs to become an impact hitter at the major league level -- except patience. And patience he lacks in the way the Sahara lacks water: He drew 12 unassisted walks in 2009, and has drawn 26 in total in 830 pro plate appearances. He's not a hacker; he's had strong contact rates at every level where he's played so far, and his swing is superb -- with a strong front side, good hand speed and excellent hip rotation to generate hard contact and power. He projects, based on his swing and ability to make contact all over the zone, as a .300 hitter with 30-homer power; but with a .320 on-base percentage, which may make you a Hall of Famer to the statistically ignorant, but means Vitters will produce a lot of outs in between those big hits. In the field, he's never going to be plus at third base but is playable there with plenty of arm. It's hard to teach Vitters' ability to make contact, and he may fit the cliché about the hitter who's so good at making contact that he never has to get to ball four, but in today's game you have to get on base to be an impact bat at a corner, and Vitters will have to dramatically increase his walk rate as he moves up the ladder to be that kind of player.

[jersey cubs fan]

Castro is one of the most exciting position player prospects in the minors as a quick-twitch player with an electric bat and a hose for an arm at shortstop. As a hitter, Castro has lightning in his wrists and the ball absolutely flies off his bat. He has excellent hand-eye coordination and adjusts well when pitchers try to come in on him, keeping his hands inside the ball and squaring up pitches many hitters would foul off. His swing can get long when pitchers work him away, but he still makes a lot more contact than most hitters do, courtesy of his bat speed and hand-eye. He recognizes breaking balls well for his age and projects to hit for power even to the opposite field. As a shortstop, he's quick on his feet with good range in both ways, especially to the hole, but it is his arm that really stands out, grading at 65 or 70 on the 20-80 scale. The Cubs have pushed him up the ladder aggressively because he can make contact and needed reps against better pitching, but it has obscured his power potential because he's been so young for his leagues. He's going to be an impact bat in the middle of the diamond and could arrive as early as late 2010.

[jersey cubs fan]

Boston has 7 guys in that list.

[CubsWin]

Those are nice reads. Especially glowing on Castro, yeesh.

 

Thanks, jersey.

[craig]

Indeed, thanks much for posting the lists and posting the scouting reports.

 

Those are very gushy, positive evals.

 

It's nice to see Jay Jackson's stuff getting that kind of review. Would sure be nice if he turned into a capable starter. Given Lilly's age and contract, and Gorzellany/Silva's dubious prospectus, there should be rotation opportunities in the not-so-distant future even apart from injuries or disasters with Z, Dempster, or Wells.

[TruffleShuffle]

And today Keith Law posted his Top 100 prospects to insider...

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=4856310&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dlaw_keith%26id%3d4856310

 

Also, the good thing to come out of that first paragraph is this Chuck Norris facts knock off website.... http://www.mattwietersfacts.com/ :-))

 

I'm sure people have known about that website but I just found it, and it's awesome.

 

P.S. where do Castro, Vitters and/or Cashner rank on the Top 100? Anyone with insider?

 

they have jason heyward #1. man i would love to have him in our system.

[davell]

Solid showing for sure by the Cubs. Castro's ranking doesn't really surprise me, since Law is SO high on him. Vitters at 30 is higher than I've seen anyone else have him at this point. Jay Jackson at 50 is awfully nice to see, considering I can see him at the tail end of BA's list, if he even makes it. Cashner at 79 seems about where he'll wind up on alot of lists. Not really surprised Lee didn't make it, probably needs a full season under his belt. Although I'm not sure if Law ranked anyone else who was in short season ball or not. I am kind of surprised B Jackson didn't make it, but Law may just not like him......

[bubblesdachimp]

B Jax just missed his list with Keith's quote being something along the lines of "is he the guy he was in college or the guy we saw in pro ball. If hes the guy in pro ball he will be extremely high and the Cubs got a steal"

 

I love the reports on Vitters and Castro. He aslo just said in his chat that he thinks Kyler Burke will hit enough to make the show

[Cubswin11]

It's hard not to get excited about the top prospects in our system as they seem like guys with relatively high floors. The pitchers; Gaub, Cashner, Carpenter, Jackson, Archer, etc all seem like guys who can at least be serviceable 4/5 type starters or middle relievers, and the position players outside of Vitters, who is going to be a boom or bust guy IMO. But Lee, Castro, Jackson, Burke, Flaherty, Watkins, Lemahieu all seem like guys who can be 4th OF, or back up INF. Thos seems like a different breed of prospects for us in terms of guys at least being able to contribute at some point and not flame out. Now obviously not all these guys will make it even as backups or interchangeable parts, no system ever has that high of a success rate, but I feel good about our core prospects being able to contribute in some facet of the game in the coming years.

[TruffleShuffle]

It's hard not to get excited about the top prospects in our system as they seem like guys with relatively high floors. The pitchers; Gaub, Cashner, Carpenter, Jackson, Archer, etc all seem like guys who can at least be serviceable 4/5 type starters or middle relievers, and the position players outside of Vitters, who is going to be a boom or bust guy IMO. But Lee, Castro, Jackson, Burke, Flaherty, Watkins, Lemahieu all seem like guys who can be 4th OF, or back up INF. Thos seems like a different breed of prospects for us in terms of guys at least being able to contribute at some point and not flame out. Now obviously not all these guys will make it even as backups or interchangeable parts, no system ever has that high of a success rate, but I feel good about our core prospects being able to contribute in some facet of the game in the coming years.

 

i can't really agree on some of those. archer has extremely erratic control and may never make an impact. carpenter has a long history of arm trouble, gaub's stuff isn't really that great. watkins has zero power, hak-ju lee is like 18 years old, brett jackson has strikeout issues that could conceivably prevent him from being more than a AAAA guy, burke wasn't even regarded as a good prospect before this past season.

 

the system is a lot better than it was but it's easy to see how a lot of these guys could or could not work out.

[davell]

I thought Gaub does have great stuff? Didn't Callis say he's the best lefty reliever in the minors? If not Callis, I know someone did anyway.....

[Guest]

I thought Gaub does have great stuff? Didn't Callis say he's the best lefty reliever in the minors? If not Callis, I know someone did anyway.....

Gaub does have good stuff. Commanding it has sometimes been an issue, but he's got decent - good raw stuff.

[toonsterwu]

I thought Gaub does have great stuff? Didn't Callis say he's the best lefty reliever in the minors? If not Callis, I know someone did anyway.....

 

Good breaking ball, fb is a bit average in the low 90's so overall, probably not great stuff, but for a LOOGY role, potentially could be great if the control is better.

[Cubswin11]

It's hard not to get excited about the top prospects in our system as they seem like guys with relatively high floors. The pitchers; Gaub, Cashner, Carpenter, Jackson, Archer, etc all seem like guys who can at least be serviceable 4/5 type starters or middle relievers, and the position players outside of Vitters, who is going to be a boom or bust guy IMO. But Lee, Castro, Jackson, Burke, Flaherty, Watkins, Lemahieu all seem like guys who can be 4th OF, or back up INF. Thos seems like a different breed of prospects for us in terms of guys at least being able to contribute at some point and not flame out. Now obviously not all these guys will make it even as backups or interchangeable parts, no system ever has that high of a success rate, but I feel good about our core prospects being able to contribute in some facet of the game in the coming years.

 

i can't really agree on some of those. archer has extremely erratic control and may never make an impact. carpenter has a long history of arm trouble, gaub's stuff isn't really that great. watkins has zero power, hak-ju lee is like 18 years old, brett jackson has strikeout issues that could conceivably prevent him from being more than a AAAA guy, burke wasn't even regarded as a good prospect before this past season.

 

the system is a lot better than it was but it's easy to see how a lot of these guys could or could not work out.

I agree that these guys have flaws and things to work on and when all is said and done it's more likely than not that the majority of those guys never amount to anything in the majors, that's why they are prospects. I understand your reasoning with why those guys won't make it. Carpenter has managed to stay healthy for 2 years now, Archer obviously has his control issues but has the stuff to probably get time in a bullpen at some point, Gaub is a left (apparently has a deceiving delivery) so he will probably find his way in a bullpen role, Lee has amazing speed by most reports and could turn into a super utility guy if he can learn to play CF to go along with SS/2B, Burke was young/inline for the league he was in last year (even though it was a repeat) but he was a high-mid first round draft pick and was regarded highly by some coming out of HS when the Padres drafted him, B.Jackson seemed to improve on a lot of the concerns surrounding him going into the draft. But like you said concerns none the less and most likely many of the top prospects now will never find their way.

Edited January 28, 2010 by Cubswin11

[scarey]

I thought Gaub does have great stuff? Didn't Callis say he's the best lefty reliever in the minors? If not Callis, I know someone did anyway.....

 

I was a little surprised by Truffle's comment on Gaub too. I've heard he has very good stuff and there has to be a reason for striking out almost 13 per nine innings in the minors.

[Cubswin11]

I thought Gaub does have great stuff? Didn't Callis say he's the best lefty reliever in the minors? If not Callis, I know someone did anyway.....

 

I was a little surprised by Truffle's comment on Gaub too. I've heard he has very good stuff and there has to be a reason for striking out almost 13 per nine innings in the minors.

I could be mistaken, but I think Gaub gets by with average-slightly above average stuff because he has a deceiving/odd delivery that fools hitters more than his stuff overwhelms them.

[TruffleShuffle]

I thought Gaub does have great stuff? Didn't Callis say he's the best lefty reliever in the minors? If not Callis, I know someone did anyway.....

Gaub does have good stuff. Commanding it has sometimes been an issue, but he's got decent - good raw stuff.

 

yeah that was a brain fart, i meant someone else. gaub's stuff is good enough to at least be a solid loogy at the big league level; his command is what is spotty.

[craig]

That seems right for Gaub, good stuff, not great, not mediocre, erratic control. I've got to imagine that when the control on his breaking ball is off, he's in trouble.

 

I think Castro is a solid-floor guy. Jay Jackson seems a solid-floor guy, too, although I think his character issues may lower that.

 

I think for the reasons already mentioned, that the rest all have variably low floors. Cashner, if his slider control doesn't shape up and the change doesn't actually turn into anything, his floor is bad-Samardz. Carpenter, obviously has both control and injury questions, plus questions about his composure. B Jackson might K too much and HR too little to turn out. Ditto for Burke. Lee struck out a lot, has no power, and makes lots of errors. Gaub is wild and has history or arm issues. Rhee arm issues. Dolis had surgery and is super-wild.

 

I think it's fairly easy to envision how almost any of these guys other than perhaps Castro and Jay Jackson and perhaps Cashner could end up never making it or contributing for long.

 

But there are certainly plenty of guys with scenarios how they could become very valuable assets.

[davell]

Did someone post Law's Cubs top 10 and I just missed it?

[toonsterwu]

Two random comments -

 

Rhee - His frame is also one that, until he proves otherwise, people will wonder whether or not he has the endurance.

 

Another comp I've used for Cashner has been Kevin Gregg.

[scarey]

Two random comments -

 

Rhee - His frame is also one that, until he proves otherwise, people will wonder whether or not he has the endurance.

 

Another comp I've used for Cashner has been Kevin Gregg.

 

 

Doesn't Cashner's fastball have a lot more movement than Gregg's ever did?

[Guest]

btw - if you think you know your Cubs prospect history, I just created quizzes over at Jawdle for all of the BA top 10 lists since 2002. Easiest way to find them is the newest game list on the right side, btw. :)

 

Or searching for cubs prospect in the upper right.

 

Or the sports list, I guess. :)

 

I have to be honest...I didn't remember them all. :)