Cubs Top Prospect Lists (NSBB, BA, etc.)

[toonsterwu]

All in all, it's a pretty positive look at our farm system from Sickels. There have been extremely few A's or A-'s given out so far by Sickels, so seeing us with 2 B+'s was a solid showing. And it's conceivable that Vitters could have a solid year in AA next year, which COULD move him up(obviously, it's just as likely he could struggle and go down)I figure Castro will wind up getting enough major league at bats to graduate.

 

Jay Jackson and/or Cashner could wind up graduating as well. In fact, I think one or the other probably will. Hopefully the other shows improvement and moves into a B+. Brett Jackson could easily go up or down next year, but I'm very happy with him right now and there's enough out there to think he could move up his status as well.

 

About the only guys who's grades I would think about disputing are Barney(not exciting, but I figure him as a C+ and think he'll have a long career in the majors, even if it's not for us. Searle and Archer seemed like C+'s to me as well. Both had decent years and have high upsides.

 

I think that the guys who have the best shot at moving up in the rankes next year though are Hak ju Lee, Kyler Burke, and Logan Watkins. Lee and Burke, in particular, can truly put themselves on the map next year.

 

 

Other guys I think can make jumps next year would be Rhee, Archer, Antigua, Searle, Raley, Kirk, and the Korean trio of Kim, Jung, and Na. All Rhee needs is some success coming off his TJS and he could be back in our top 5. Archer needs to build on what he accomplished this past year(although he's probably the easiest one to see regress as well) Antigua just needs to keep doing what he's been doing at higher levels and I think he'll wind up in Daytona for most of 2010 anyway. Searle will be interesting to see develop, not sure whether or not we'll see him move up to AA or not, considering his age. But, it's nice to have a young sinkerballer with potential. Raley could move quickly, especially since he's concentrating on pitching alone. Kirk will probably pitch in Peoria next year and if he shows enough, I could see his grade moving up some. It was encouraging seeing his K rate to this point in limited time. The Koreans should all show up next year, Jung possibly in Peoria and Na and Kim in Boise. Kim seems to be the one with the most breakout potential, if he shows power, he could really put himself on our map.

 

Don't forget about Tzu-An Wang in regards to guys that could take a jump next year. I'm very fascinated by the potential in the kids. He has some more room to fill out, hasn't been playing baseball long, is a fairly good athlete, and has a good frame. Add in that he supposedly has a plus-split/change pitch as well, and gets around low 90's on the fb already, and that's exciting.

 

I also could see Burruel/Darvill maybe work their way into discussion lists, and it wouldn't surprise me if Dan McDaniel found his way back into some discussion lists. I really wonder how much the back injury played into his problems, and how much his back injury impacted his ability to loosen up. Of course, he's going to have to fight tooth and nails for a rotation spot, as Daytona could have some fierce battles in that regards, and he certainly isn't a favorite for one right now.

[davell]

Yeah, Wang seems like a boom or bust type. At his age, I don't see him coming together yet. In fact, I could see a "Suarez" start to his career, but hopefully he'll have a better work ethic and eventually get it. Hell, it's not too late for Suarez actually either, I just don't see him turning the corner.

 

Burruel and Darvill could definitely make some lists next year, but Darvill seems pretty raw as well, doesn't he? I honestly know little about Burruel, other than his small write up from when he was drafted and that we most likely overslotted him some.

 

What about the other Wang we signed?(and yes, I know that doesn't sound right :D ) He's more of a control guy, right?

 

McDaniel needs to get back on track, it'll be interesting to see if he is in the rotation next year or back in the pen. Although, I thought he was just starting this year to get more innings, with the eventual eye of moving back to the pen anyway. I see McNutt as the bullpen arm down pretty far in the minors to keep an eye on, even moreso than Huseby......

 

To me though, the main thing you said is the fact that we have some VERY interesting guys to follow at this point. It's obvious some won't hit on anything, but the odds are in our favor for some of these guys to turn the corner and become top prospects. Wilken has done a damn good job over the last few seasons.....

[toonsterwu]

Yeah, it could take some time for Wang, but it's also possible that, with better strength and conditioning, that he could show the promise sooner. The upside's huge.

 

On a side note, I pondered Beliveau, but I don't buy him as a starter right now, and as a pen arm, he seems like Gaub-ish or Lambert-sih (probably somewhere in b/w) and I didn't think he was top 20 worthy. I had him around 35 last I did it, I think.

[toonsterwu]

Sickels has updated the Cubs 38 man list by cutting Junior Lake and replacing it with Scott Maine, a move I agree with. He's posted his brief Junior Lake thoughts over at www.minorleagueball.com in a post he's made.

[toonsterwu]

THT has put up their Cubs top 10 list (h/t TCR)

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-10-prospects-for-2010-chicago-cubs-and-st.-louis-cardinals1/

 

I don't know anything on Matt Hagen. Also, cutting and pasting what he typed ... but if that's not allowed, please cut it out.

 

Chicago Cubs

 

1. Starlin Castro: Castro has a full tool shed to work with, including quick wrists that aren't hitting for much power now but should support average power as his body fills out. At just 19 years old, his plate discipline is a long way off, but he's slick and consistent with his glove already and projects as a defensive asset at shortstop.

2. Josh Vitters: It's tough to know what to make of Vitters at this point. His plate discipline has been hugely disappointing and his overall performance the definition of inconsistent. But he's just 20 years old and a good defender, and you could make the argument that his all-around bat projects a plus asset, including more home run power than I originally thought.

3. Brett Jackson: I was not a believer in Jackson's upside heading into the 2009 draft, but the initial numbers show more power and sneakier speed than I was expecting.

4. Jay Jackson: Jackson's fastball/slider combination is above average but not overwhelming. A third pitch would be a nice touch, but his stellar endurance will make sure that whatever repertoire he settles on will be put to use as a member of the starting rotation.

5. Hak-Ju Lee: The $1.15 million dollar signing bonus Chicago gave Lee in 2008 is looking like a strong investment in the early going. Lee has the ability to be great defensively, his speed is elite, and his bat looks fairly advanced for a 19-year-old.

6. Kyler Burke: Burke has a solid mix of skills, and he put everything together to tear up the Class-A Midwest League in 2009. He has a lot more to prove, as he was a bit on the old side for A-ball, but his career is off to a nice start.

7.Andrew Cashner: Cashner has a slick fastball/slider combination, but it seems better suited out of the bullpen at this point. Giving the bullpen idea further legs, his command comes and goes and his endurance is questionable to say the least. If I were a betting man, I would say his future lies as Chicago's setup man.

8. Chris Archer: Archer's control needs work, but he has a potent fastball/curveball combination and has produced a successful Midwest League season.

9. Chris Carpenter: I was a big fan of Carpenter heading into the 2008 draft, but his post-draft numbers were a turn-off. 2009 was an uneven but successful season, raising his stock as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter.

10. Ryan Flaherty: Considering that Flaherty turned 23 years old halfway through 2009, his Single-A season didn't do much for me. He showed more power than expected, which I want to see more evidence of against better competition, but the rest of his offense was ho-hum.

 

Quick thoughts

 

- I think he's the only person I've seen suggest that Vitters is a good defender at 3rd.

 

- Surprisingly low on Cashner. I can understand some people not wanting to rank pen arms higher, though.

 

- Carpenter only potential "back of rotation starter"? I think that's a bit harsh on Carpenter. I think he at least has mid-rotation potential.

[davell]

Sickels dropped Vitters from a B+ to a B. Wanted to put Dominguez one spot higher on the overall rankings than Vitters and dropped Vitters down instead of moving Dominguez up. That said, he did say Vitters will be in his overall top 50.

[toonsterwu]

BP's List is out. Just copying and pasting the free stuff. Nothing that surprising. We knew he wasn't as high as others on Starlin. I half-expected him to downgrade Starlin to a 4-star from all his public comments, but it seems like all he was doing was showing caution which is fair. A bit surprised all three arms of our top arms were 3-stars for him.

 

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9978

 

Five-Star Prospects

1. Josh Vitters, 3B

2. Starlin Castro, SS

Four-Star Prospects

3. Hak-Ju Lee, SS

4. Brett Jackson, CF

Three-Star Prospects

5. Andrew Cashner, RHP

6. Jay Jackson, RHP

7. Chris Carpenter, RHP

8. Chris Archer, RHP

9. Kyler Burke, OF

10. Ryan Flaherty, INF

11. John Gaub, LHP

 

Four More:

12. Chris Huseby, RHP: All but written-off, Huseby is a seven-figure signing from the 2006 draft. He shined out of the Low-A Peoria bullpen, showing a big-league quality sinker.

13. Logan Watkins, INF: Watkins is a little second baseman with speed, a line-drive bat, and on-base skills, but zero power.

14. Dae-Eun Rhee, LHP: This Korean import missed nearly all of 2009 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but his upside remains high.

15. Darwin Barney, SS: He’s one of the minors’ best defenders with enough bat to be a nice utility player.

 

1. Josh Vitters, 3B

DOB: 8/27/89

Height/Weight: 6-3/200

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2007, Cypress HS (CA)

2009 Stats: .316/.351/.535 at Low-A (70 G); .238/.260/.344 at High-A (50 G)

Last Year’s Ranking: 1

 

Year in Review: Finally healthy, this former top pick was having a breakout season in the Midwest League before a hand injury slowed him down in the Florida State League.

The Good: Vitters' swing is among the sweetest in the minors. It's smooth, powerful, gets into the hitting zone quickly, and stays there a long time. His plate coverage is off the charts, and he's as comfortable turning on an inside fastball as he is driving an outside breaking ball to the opposite field. He made significant strides defensively in 2009, with most scouts believing he can stay at the hot corner for at least the remainder of the decade, while his arm is a plus tool.

The Bad: Vitters' plate coverage works against him, as with so many hittable pitches, he draws very few walks. He's a tick below average as a runner, which limits his range a bit at the hot corner.

Ephemera: Over a 15-game stretch from May 16 through May 31, Vitters went 26-for-64 (.406) with 10 home runs.

Perfect World Projection: Vitters will be a bigger, stronger version of Howie Kendrick.

Path to the Big Leagues: Aramis Ramirez could become a free agent after this year, or he could remain a Cub through 2012.

Timetable: Vitters made up for his poor second half by hitting .353/.380/.453 against far more advanced pitching in the Arizona Fall League. He could begin 2010 as high as Double-A.

 

2. Starlin Castro, SS

DOB: 3/24/90

Height/Weight: 6-1/160

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2006

2009 Stats: .302/.340/.391 at High-A (96 G); .288/.347/.396 at Double-A (31 G)

Last Year’s Ranking: Not ranked

[AlwaysaCub]

At the end of the article he points out that while all our young talent is still not that close to the bigs, but overall this year was a huge step forward for the Cubs system and would be much higher on his organizational rankings. Goldstein's list was pretty much what I'd expect.

[toonsterwu]

I'm not sure if this is allowed or not, but someone at BCB posted BA's Top 30 list, along with BA's Top 5 org rankings and where the Cubs ranked (15th). If this is a problem, feel free to delete.

 

BCB Link

 

http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2010/1/26/1270566/baseball-america-top-30-and-the

 

Top 30

1. Castro 6. Lee 11. Burke 16. McNutt 21. Raley 26. Chrinos

 

2. Jackson B 7. Watkins 12. Rhee 17. Colvin 22. Carridad 27. Castillo

 

3. Vitters 8. Carpenter 13. Dolis 18. Barney 23. Fuld 28. Cales

 

4. Cashner 9. Flaherty 14. Gaub 19. Antigua 24. Mateo 29. Lake

 

5. Jackson J 10. Lemahieu 15. Archer 20. Parker 25. Coleman 30. Adduci

 

I'm not gung ho about that back part of the list. It's alright, but not gung-ho on Lake making the top 30, and I think McNutt at 16 is too high for my tastes.

[TruffleShuffle]

unless watkins projects to add some power i don't see why he's that high. i'm surprised raley is that low and don't see chirinos as much of a prospect.

[davell]

I agree that Watkins being ranked THAT high is a tad much. 10-15ish on him, if you ask me. The back end of that list does look kind of weak, but it's missing Searle, Guyer, Huseby, and Ridling, who show up on most top 30's. It's also missing Rusin, Kirk, and Darvill from last year's draft, who you'd at least think 2 of those guys make our top 30 next year anyway. It's also missing guys like Kim, Jung, Na, Chen, the two Wangs :mrgreen: and the Alcantara kid, of which some are sure to crack next year's top 30 as well. Cerda could jump in there too, for that matter.

 

I guess what I'm saying is our system is in much better shape than seeing guys like Chirinos, Mateo, and maybe a few of the others show up on it. As for the 15th ranking by BA? I was hoping for 12ish or so, but I can see us moving up steadily over the next few years anyway. And it's at least a clear indication, that we're definitely on the right track.

[Guest]

Watkins' ranking hasn't changed since BA published the top 10 late last year.

 

This reminds me, I need to order my prospect handbook.

[craig]

I'm not sure if this is allowed or not, but someone at BCB posted BA's Top 30 list, along with BA's Top 5 org rankings and where the Cubs ranked (15th). If this is a problem, feel free to delete.

 

BCB Link

 

http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2010/1/26/1270566/baseball-america-top-30-and-the

 

Top 30

1. Castro 6. Lee 11. Burke 16. McNutt 21. Raley 26. Chrinos

 

2. Jackson B 7. Watkins 12. Rhee 17. Colvin 22. Carridad 27. Castillo

 

3. Vitters 8. Carpenter 13. Dolis 18. Barney 23. Fuld 28. Cales

 

4. Cashner 9. Flaherty 14. Gaub 19. Antigua 24. Mateo 29. Lake

 

5. Jackson J 10. Lemahieu 15. Archer 20. Parker 25. Coleman 30. Adduci

 

I'm not gung ho about that back part of the list. It's alright, but not gung-ho on Lake making the top 30, and I think McNutt at 16 is too high for my tastes.

 

Thanks for the list. I made up my own list shortly after the season and before some winter feedback had come in (such as the Dolis velocity reports). The biggest differences:

 

2. B Jackson so high for them (I had him 7th, right after Carpenter!)

7. Watkins so high for them (I had him 17th)

13. Dolis (I had him at #40, but didn't realize the big velocity subsequently reported, or the instrux impress)

12. Rhee (I had him #22, but realized he was an obvious candidate to jump if he's healthy, can recover his control, and is allowed to use the pitches he used to use...)

24. mateo (Heh, he didn't make my list of 50. Throws hard for sure, but no control....)

 

Some of mine who missed: Huseby, Na, Kirk, Stevens, Berg.

[craig]

The absence of Huseby is interesting, and I suspect it reflects negative feedback on Huseby's health status.

 

I don't think BA just forgot him, and if they'd gotten favorable feedback on his health I think he might have found a spot in the 20's.

 

I haven't gotten any health reports on him since he ended the year injured, and if I recall Nathan's report was barely touching 80 when he walked away the season in the playoffs. To my knowledge, he didn't appear in Instrux. Absence from instrux, the way his season ended, and absence from this list probably implies his arm isn't right and Cubs admitted as much to the BA people.

 

Possible, I suppose, that they just didn't think his stuff as a low-A reliever was that good. combining the rare emergence of low-A relievers as big-league players, combined with the end-of-year-injuries, perhaps they just didn't include him even without getting any feedback from Cubs or having heard anything that we haven't heard.

[Clem Fandango]

Keith Law posted the organizational rankings, but I don't have Insider so I don't know where the Cubs ranked. Anyone?

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=4861174

[jersey cubs fan]

7

 

They've hit on several top draft picks under scouting director Tim Wilken as well as a couple of later-round finds, but the system is led by 19-year-old Dominican shortstop Starlin Castro, who is already in Double-A.

[Clem Fandango]

7

 

They've hit on several top draft picks under scouting director Tim Wilken as well as a couple of later-round finds, but the system is led by 19-year-old Dominican shortstop Starlin Castro, who is already in Double-A.

 

Not too shabby.

[jersey cubs fan]

FYI

 

Rangers

Red Sox

Rays

Indians

Braves

Orioles

Cubs

Rockies

Royals

Reds

Padres

Marlins

Twins

A's

Mets

Blue Jays

Tigers

Pirates

Dodgers

Giants

Mariners

Angels

Nationals

Phillies

Yankees

Brewers

Diamondbacks

Astros

Cardinals

White Sox

 

on STL:

The Matt Holliday trade cost them both depth and one impact prospect, and the Mark DeRosa trade cost more depth, while uber-prospect Colby Rasmus spent the year in the majors and no longer qualifies as part of the farm system. I may be underrating their 2009 draft, particularly USC catcher Robert Stock, who had a strong pro debut after a disappointing college career, and they do have power arms in the system, many of whom project right now as relievers.

[Ryno12]

FYI

 

Rangers

Red Sox

Rays

Indians

Braves

Orioles

Cubs

Rockies

Royals

Reds

Padres

Marlins

Twins

A's

Mets

Blue Jays

Tigers

Pirates

Dodgers

Giants

Mariners

Angels

Nationals

Phillies

Yankees

Brewers

Diamondbacks

Astros

Cardinals

White Sox

 

on STL:

The Matt Holliday trade cost them both depth and one impact prospect, and the Mark DeRosa trade cost more depth, while uber-prospect Colby Rasmus spent the year in the majors and no longer qualifies as part of the farm system. I may be underrating their 2009 draft, particularly USC catcher Robert Stock, who had a strong pro debut after a disappointing college career, and they do have power arms in the system, many of whom project right now as relievers.

 

I love that he has the Cubs #7 and the White Sox last. I have a cousin who is a White Sox fan generally a knowledgeable baseball fan, who I have had several arguments about whether the Cubs or White Sox have a better farm system. He refuses to believe that the Cubs system has improved, and also thinks Jordan Danks is going to be the next big thing. This ought to help me in any future disputes I will have with him!

[Guest]

Wow, #7? Admittedly, I am looking at the teams immediately below them and I can definitely see arguments for rating them at 7.

[TruffleShuffle]

warms my heart to see the brewers, cardinals and astros in the bottom 5.

[toonsterwu]

Brewers system could improve quite a bit next year if their young arms flourish. 7th surprises me, but if you are as high on Castro as Law is, and aren't down on any of our other top prospects, then I could see it.

[woodchip2153]

An interesting list of the value of the minor league systems.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/1/16/1255063/johns-farm-system-rankings

[Clem Fandango]

And today Keith Law posted his Top 100 prospects to insider...

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=4856310&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dlaw_keith%26id%3d4856310

 

Also, the good thing to come out of that first paragraph is this Chuck Norris facts knock off website.... http://www.mattwietersfacts.com/ :-))

 

I'm sure people have known about that website but I just found it, and it's awesome.

 

P.S. where do Castro, Vitters and/or Cashner rank on the Top 100? Anyone with insider?

[jersey cubs fan]

P.S. where do Castro, Vitters and/or Cashner rank on the Top 100? Anyone with insider?

 

12, 30 and 79

 

 

Jackson is 50