Granderson to Yankees in 3-way trade? p. 20

[Guancous]

Is Granderson/Byrd a binary solution? No.

 

What makes the most sense? Cameron.

 

What do I expect? Byrd pulling a .760 OPS and getting jettisoned for a slightly better player in 2011.

 

Here's to hoping Tyler Colvin makes the farm leap that Starlin Castro did.

 

 

 

Don't mind me. I'm alternating between huffing gasoline and smoking salvia.

[toonsterwu]

Granderson is a player that's right up Hendry's alley: He's a leadoff guy who's left-handed and can catch the ball.

 

If we trade for Granderson, I don't want him as a top of the order option. I'd rather have him hit 5th or 6th.

[toonsterwu]

My thoughts on a Granderson trade that I've posted elsewhere:

 

a) Most teams protect their top prospects. There have been few trades in recent years with elite prospects being moved (the Miguel Cabrera trade comes to mind, with Maybin and Miller both ranking quite high in back to back years - Granderson shouldn't cost as much, though). Add in that our system has improved quite a bit, and I don't believe we'll need to fork over Castro to make a deal, and there's been enough suggestions that Castro is close to untouchable.

 

b) Teams rarely deal multiple top arms anymore. We're in an era where pitching prospects are protected, perhaps overprotected. Simply getting multiple arms in a deal is usually a coup.

 

c) Granderson isn't a perfect fix. For all the talk about prospects being a gamble in their own right, two things need to be kept in mind:

 

i) The current core is at the beginning of the end, with Lilly and Lee's contracts expiring after this year (although, a big year from Lee, and I could see the Cubs offering him, say, a 2 year deal).

 

ii) Prospects have value. It seems like plenty of people want to get aggressive on Granderson. The Cubs have a top group of 7 guys or so (Castro, 2 Jackson's, Cashner, Lee, Carpenter, Vitters). I wouldn't give up 3 of those top guys, as some have sugggested. Even if you don't think these guys will pan out, there's better ways to maximize your value, particularly when you factor in that Granderson isn't the final piece (IMO).

 

d) What would I give:

 

i) 1 of our top 3 arms. If they want Cashner, I'm game. I'm still not sold Cashner is more than a pen arm. Either way, I wouldn't give up more than 1 of our top 3 arms.

 

ii) 1 of our top positional assets besides Castro - that is, Vitters, Brett Jackson (although he can't be traded till midseason), or Hak-ju Lee. Lee seems to make the most sense for the Tigers, as they could use a top SS asset.

 

iii) After that, I'd hold the line on anyone else from the top tier of our prospects. If they want a Kyler Burke or a Ryan Flaherty, I'd ponder it (depending on the rest of the package). If they want a young arm, like Jeffry Antigua or Justin Bristow, it's a thought. If they want stopgap assets, like Darwin Barney or Sam Fuld, fine. Pen help? Sure, go ahead.

 

Granderson would be a nice get, but I wouldn't get ridiculous in making an offer. CG would be able to bridge this current core with our next potential core, but he isn't the final piece, now, IMO, and we need to loosely start pondering the next core. Honestly, I'm not sure that the price will be as high as some folks suggest. Detroit may want an elite return, and they might even be justified in asking for it, but who's going to fork over multiple top prospects, perhaps an elite prospect in the bunch? If someone does, then you move on.

 

With the suggestion that the Cubs might be done with the pen (Wittenmeyer article the other day) and the suggestion that Castro could be up in 2010, the only spot left to figure out is CF, so I imagine we may put a full court press on if Granderson is available. We should be able, with our system, be in the conversation and be able to make a competitive offer.

[Guest]

Detroit will want more than any team will be willing to give up. It's their whole purpose of dabbling Granderson out there. To see what other teams would be willing to give up.

 

He's a young, lefty power hitter with other tangibles that make him extremely appealing to just about every GM in need of an outfielder.

 

The problem is that he's looking more and more like Corey Patterson than Chase Utley. It's a huge problem to see a guy's production fall off as quickly as Granderson's has. Ironically, the Tigers roster has become better over that time, which should have treated him as less of a threat.

 

I'd rather keep the talent on the farm than give up Detroit's perceived overvalue of Granderson.

[KingCubsFan]

Detroit will want more than any team will be willing to give up. It's their whole purpose of dabbling Granderson out there. To see what other teams would be willing to give up.

 

He's a young, lefty power hitter with other tangibles that make him extremely appealing to just about every GM in need of an outfielder.

 

The problem is that he's looking more and more like Corey Patterson than Chase Utley. It's a huge problem to see a guy's production fall off as quickly as Granderson's has. Ironically, the Tigers roster has become better over that time, which should have treated him as less of a threat.

 

I'd rather keep the talent on the farm than give up Detroit's perceived overvalue of Granderson.

He's lot closer to Grady Sizemore than he is to Corey Patterson. Just because he can't hit lefties doesn't make him extremely valuable.

[Guest]

He's lot closer to Grady Sizemore than he is to Corey Patterson. Just because he can't hit lefties doesn't make him extremely valuable.

 

Not sure how you can say that. Sizemore's best prime year(s) are still ahead of him. Granderson is basically almost past his, and the slide is eye popping. It's almost as dramatic as Patterson from '03 thru '05. Patterson was never as good as Granderson, but my concern is the drop off in production in general.

 

Losing over 100 points of OPS while getting a big spike in pay is probably why Detroit is shopping him, not just that he's getting expensive. Buyer beware.

[KingCubsFan]

He's lot closer to Grady Sizemore than he is to Corey Patterson. Just because he can't hit lefties doesn't make him extremely valuable.

 

Not sure how you can say that. Sizemore's best prime year(s) are still ahead of him. Granderson is basically almost past his, and the slide is eye popping. It's almost as dramatic as Patterson from '03 thru '05. Patterson was never as good as Granderson, but my concern is the drop off in production in general.

 

Losing over 100 points of OPS while getting a big spike in pay is probably why Detroit is shopping him, not just that he's getting expensive. Buyer beware.

Sizemore is only a year younger. And Granderson's huge drop was due to a BA drop, which is probably due to some bad luck. Patterson went from being a rising star to a completely worthless player in 3 years. It's not a good comparison. I don't know why it's so difficult for some people to admit Granderson is a really good player. He might be a bit overvalued by Detroit, and has a serious flaw with his inability to hit lefties, but he's one of the top players at his position.

[scarey]

He's lot closer to Grady Sizemore than he is to Corey Patterson. Just because he can't hit lefties doesn't make him extremely valuable.

 

Not sure how you can say that. Sizemore's best prime year(s) are still ahead of him. Granderson is basically almost past his, and the slide is eye popping. It's almost as dramatic as Patterson from '03 thru '05. Patterson was never as good as Granderson, but my concern is the drop off in production in general.

 

Losing over 100 points of OPS while getting a big spike in pay is probably why Detroit is shopping him, not just that he's getting expensive. Buyer beware.

Sizemore is only a year younger. And Granderson's huge drop was due to a BA drop, which is probably due to some bad luck. Patterson went from being a rising star to a completely worthless player in 3 years. It's not a good comparison. I don't know why it's so difficult for some people to admit Granderson is a really good player. He might be a bit overvalued by Detroit, and has a serious flaw with his inability to hit lefties, but he's one of the top players at his position.

 

 

You're right, except there's no probably about it really. He had a 21% LD%, a .275 BABIP, and a .249 BA. That's unlucky.

 

I'm confident Granderson will have a bounce back year, especially if he's playing home games at Wrigley instead of Comerica. What's great about Granderson is although he's approaching 30, he hits for enough power to warrant a move to right field in 2 or 3 years as he ages to make room for Brett Jackson or whoever else may be capable to filling in the centerfielder's position.

 

As long as it doesn't destroy the farm, I think Granderson needs to be a Cub.

[Backtobanks]

Detroit will want more than any team will be willing to give up. It's their whole purpose of dabbling Granderson out there. To see what other teams would be willing to give up.

 

He's a young, lefty power hitter with other tangibles that make him extremely appealing to just about every GM in need of an outfielder.

 

The problem is that he's looking more and more like Corey Patterson than Chase Utley. It's a huge problem to see a guy's production fall off as quickly as Granderson's has. Ironically, the Tigers roster has become better over that time, which should have treated him as less of a threat.

 

I'd rather keep the talent on the farm than give up Detroit's perceived overvalue of Granderson.

 

It will be interesting to see who blinks first, Detroit or the other team. It's kind of like the arbitration process, one side saying he's a borderline superstar while the other side points out all of his weaknesses. Personally, I would love to get him, but nowhere near what the rumored asking price would be.

[jersey cubs fan]

Granderson is a flawed player whose value has been greatly overhyped this offseason, however, I don't get any Patterson comparison, at all. Corey had half a season where he was as good as Granderson has been in his career. And his decline was early and much more dramatic, not to mention predictable. You had to consider it an accomplishment for him to walk 20 times in a season, Curtis has been 50 or higher every year and twice went past 70. And in 4.25 seasons he's shown much more consistent ability to not suck. Corey occasionally showed flashes of brilliances, but he much more frequently showed prolonged periods of incompetence. 2004 was an acceptable recovery from injury, but 2005 was a disaster. You can argue his bounce back year in Baltimore was okay, but he followed that up with more crap. Granderson is in his prime and he's performing, Corey spent half his prime sucking giant donkey balls. I don't think Granderson has a long career of quality ahead of him, and Detroit would be wise to sell high on the guy. But he's a good enough baseball player right now, and should be in the near-to-intermediate future. He's not a power hitter, and he's not an all around hitter, but he's a decent player, which Corey only ever was for a very short amount of time.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm confident Granderson will have a bounce back year, especially if he's playing home games at Wrigley instead of Comerica. What's great about Granderson is although he's approaching 30, he hits for enough power to warrant a move to right field in 2 or 3 years

 

No he does not. He's most of the way through his prime and he's had a SLG over .500 once, and that's as a guy whose OPS value is very SLG dependent. As he ages, and slows, he might be moved to RF, but I think the need to platoon him will be even higher, and whoever gets him should probably just plan on getting the most value they can out of the next 3 years and then maybe consider picking up the option if he beats expectations, otherwise cut him loose. Guys who strike out a lot, don't walk much and depend on their speed don't tend to age all that well. I see him having Garrett Anderson's future, good while it lasted but staying and getting paid well past his expiration date.

[Guest]

Granderson is a flawed player whose value has been greatly overhyped this offseason, however, I don't get any Patterson comparison, at all. Corey had half a season where he was as good as Granderson has been in his career. And his decline was early and much more dramatic, not to mention predictable. You had to consider it an accomplishment for him to walk 20 times in a season, Curtis has been 50 or higher every year and twice went past 70. And in 4.25 seasons he's shown much more consistent ability to not suck. Corey occasionally showed flashes of brilliances, but he much more frequently showed prolonged periods of incompetence. 2004 was an acceptable recovery from injury, but 2005 was a disaster. You can argue his bounce back year in Baltimore was okay, but he followed that up with more crap. Granderson is in his prime and he's performing, Corey spent half his prime sucking giant donkey balls. I don't think Granderson has a long career of quality ahead of him, and Detroit would be wise to sell high on the guy. But he's a good enough baseball player right now, and should be in the near-to-intermediate future. He's not a power hitter, and he's not an all around hitter, but he's a decent player, which Corey only ever was for a very short amount of time.

 

Wasn't comparing Granderson to Patterson. I was comparing Granderson's drop off in production to Patterson's fall off in production. It's alarming to have interest in a guy who has seen his production drop off more than 100 points in OPS in just 2 years.

 

And given who the Cubs have in charge of making decisions on player personnel, I'm a bit scared that this is another bad avenue Hendry might just explore.

[rawaction]

I'm confident Granderson will have a bounce back year, especially if he's playing home games at Wrigley instead of Comerica. What's great about Granderson is although he's approaching 30, he hits for enough power to warrant a move to right field in 2 or 3 years

 

No he does not. He's most of the way through his prime and he's had a SLG over .500 once, and that's as a guy whose OPS value is very SLG dependent. As he ages, and slows, he might be moved to RF, but I think the need to platoon him will be even higher, and whoever gets him should probably just plan on getting the most value they can out of the next 3 years and then maybe consider picking up the option if he beats expectations, otherwise cut him loose. Guys who strike out a lot, don't walk much and depend on their speed don't tend to age all that well. I see him having Garrett Anderson's future, good while it lasted but staying and getting paid well past his expiration date.

 

I don't know what you expect from the guy, but he has over a .200 ISOP each of the last each of the 3 years. His power is top 50 in baseball. And his walks are just fine, just outside of the top 50, and he's been at both levels for the last 3 years, his prime years.

 

I can go with you that he will likely be getting paid past his expiration date, but he should be at least be a similar player for the next 3 years or so and should continue to be a top 50 player until then.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm confident Granderson will have a bounce back year, especially if he's playing home games at Wrigley instead of Comerica. What's great about Granderson is although he's approaching 30, he hits for enough power to warrant a move to right field in 2 or 3 years

 

No he does not. He's most of the way through his prime and he's had a SLG over .500 once, and that's as a guy whose OPS value is very SLG dependent. As he ages, and slows, he might be moved to RF, but I think the need to platoon him will be even higher, and whoever gets him should probably just plan on getting the most value they can out of the next 3 years and then maybe consider picking up the option if he beats expectations, otherwise cut him loose. Guys who strike out a lot, don't walk much and depend on their speed don't tend to age all that well. I see him having Garrett Anderson's future, good while it lasted but staying and getting paid well past his expiration date.

 

I don't know what you expect from the guy, but he has over a .200 ISOP each of the last each of the 3 years. His power is top 50 in baseball. And his walks are just fine, just outside of the top 50, and he's been at both levels for the last 3 years, his prime years.

 

I can go with you that he will likely be getting paid past his expiration date, but he should be at least be a similar player for the next 3 years or so and should continue to be a top 50 player until then.

 

I expect him to be a nice player for the next couple years but not a good option to shift over to right field in 3 years.

[jersey cubs fan]

Granderson is a flawed player whose value has been greatly overhyped this offseason, however, I don't get any Patterson comparison, at all. Corey had half a season where he was as good as Granderson has been in his career. And his decline was early and much more dramatic, not to mention predictable. You had to consider it an accomplishment for him to walk 20 times in a season, Curtis has been 50 or higher every year and twice went past 70. And in 4.25 seasons he's shown much more consistent ability to not suck. Corey occasionally showed flashes of brilliances, but he much more frequently showed prolonged periods of incompetence. 2004 was an acceptable recovery from injury, but 2005 was a disaster. You can argue his bounce back year in Baltimore was okay, but he followed that up with more crap. Granderson is in his prime and he's performing, Corey spent half his prime sucking giant donkey balls. I don't think Granderson has a long career of quality ahead of him, and Detroit would be wise to sell high on the guy. But he's a good enough baseball player right now, and should be in the near-to-intermediate future. He's not a power hitter, and he's not an all around hitter, but he's a decent player, which Corey only ever was for a very short amount of time.

 

Wasn't comparing Granderson to Patterson. I was comparing Granderson's drop off in production to Patterson's fall off in production. It's alarming to have interest in a guy who has seen his production drop off more than 100 points in OPS in just 2 years.

 

And given who the Cubs have in charge of making decisions on player personnel, I'm a bit scared that this is another bad avenue Hendry might just explore.

 

Corey had half a season of playing well, he was terribly inconsistent and rarely good. Granderson has been good every year. He's not the 900+ OPS guy he was a couple years ago, but he's been a nice player. You seem to be discrediting him because he was so good in 2007. But if his 2007 was more like his career, or his 2008 numbers, then you'd just say he was a guy who played well and had a modest decline this year. The fact that he declined 2 years in a row doesn't mean much. He wasn't bad 2 years in a row, he was very good, really good and good. He's still putting up good numbers in his decline. When Patterson declined he fell of a cliff. JD Drew has lost more than 200 points in OPS over the course of a couple seasons, on more than one occasion in his career, but he was still a decent enough player at his lows. Jason Bay lost 200 points in 2 years and turned around. Robinson Cano lost 150+ points in OPS over 2 years and bounced back strong.

 

Had that decline also turned him into a bad player, that would be one thing, but if a down year still leaves a guy as a pretty good player it shouldn't mean a ton. I don't see a valid comparison to Corey Patterson.

[Backtobanks]

Finally some posts admitting Granderson isn't the second coming of Willie Mays. For awhile there I was worried that people were willing to give up Castro, Vitters, Casner, plus Jackson for him. As many have pointed out, he's a nice piece to the puzzle, but his flaws should stop us from offering 3-4 players including some of our top prospects.

[Vanilla Ice]

I'd offer Vitters, Carpenter, and a piece like Antigua.

[inari]

Finally some posts admitting Granderson isn't the second coming of Willie Mays. For awhile there I was worried that people were willing to give up Castro, Vitters, Casner, plus Jackson for him. As many have pointed out, he's a nice piece to the puzzle, but his flaws should stop us from offering 3-4 players including some of our top prospects.

 

To find people not willing to give up Castro you have to go as far back as... the very first reply.

[Guest]

I'd offer Vitters, Carpenter, and a piece like Antigua.

 

I wouldn't. Are the Cubs a Curtis Granderson type player away from being a playoff caliber team? I don't think so. In fact, I'm not sure if replacing Bradley with Granderson is an upgrade at all. If he isn't the type of player that can turn this into a playoff team, I'd much rather save the talent and sign Cameron to a 1 year deal and see who is available next year that can improve the team.

 

All the rumors this offseason dictate that this team is handcuffed on payroll, so shedding the farm system of 3 of its better players for a guy who won't impact the won/loss record enough to make a difference just seems like continuing the viscious circle. And as much as someone can assure me that Granderson's 2 year plummet won't continue in 2010, he's not someone I can truly stand behind as the building block of the Cubs future.

 

The Cubs need to spend money more wisely moving forward. Instead of watching guys like Matt Holliday and Jason Bay find teams that aren't the Cubs and signing Jacque Jones and Jeromy Burnitz' instead, this team will continue to have a tough time being better than Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Houston, which is an absolute embarrassment.

[inari]

I'm not sure it's really fair to say we've had a tough time being better than Cincinnati and Houston as of late.

[TruffleShuffle]

I'm not sure it's really fair to say we've had a tough time being better than Cincinnati and Houston as of late.

 

considering we've finished ahead of milwaukee, cincy and houston in each of the past three years, i'm not really sure what BBB was getting at there.

[third eye]

 

You're right, except there's no probably about it really. He had a 21% LD%, a .275 BABIP, and a .249 BA. That's unlucky.

 

I'm confident Granderson will have a bounce back year, especially if he's playing home games at Wrigley instead of Comerica. What's great about Granderson is although he's approaching 30, he hits for enough power to warrant a move to right field in 2 or 3 years as he ages to make room for Brett Jackson or whoever else may be capable to filling in the centerfielder's position.

 

As long as it doesn't destroy the farm, I think Granderson needs to be a Cub.

 

Yep, and not only was he unlucky last year, this supposed drop in production over the past two seasons is magnified by the fact that he was really lucky 2 years ago:

 

Year/LD%/BABIP/OPS

 

2007/22%/.360/.913

2008/20%/.316/.858

2009/21%/.275/.780

2008 was the only year where his production was largely luck-neutral. Yes, his splits are still an issue, but the .100 OPS decline people keep throwing around is misleading.

[Vanilla Ice]

I'd offer Vitters, Carpenter, and a piece like Antigua.

 

I wouldn't. Are the Cubs a Curtis Granderson type player away from being a playoff caliber team? I don't think so. In fact, I'm not sure if replacing Bradley with Granderson is an upgrade at all. If he isn't the type of player that can turn this into a playoff team, I'd much rather save the talent and sign Cameron to a 1 year deal and see who is available next year that can improve the team.

 

All the rumors this offseason dictate that this team is handcuffed on payroll, so shedding the farm system of 3 of its better players for a guy who won't impact the won/loss record enough to make a difference just seems like continuing the viscious circle. And as much as someone can assure me that Granderson's 2 year plummet won't continue in 2010, he's not someone I can truly stand behind as the building block of the Cubs future.

 

The Cubs need to spend money more wisely moving forward. Instead of watching guys like Matt Holliday and Jason Bay find teams that aren't the Cubs and signing Jacque Jones and Jeromy Burnitz' instead, this team will continue to have a tough time being better than Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Houston, which is an absolute embarrassment.

In my mind, the deal would not be to get THE building block for the future. I mostly want to sell high on Vitters while we can still get some good value on him.

 

EDIT: I think I have changed my mind. I don't really want to trade any prospects right now. I think in 2010 we will be about .500 and 2011 should be pretty rough so I don't think any moves would vault us back into World Series discussions. I would rather build for 2012 or so.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I say sign Mike Cameron.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm not sure it's really fair to say we've had a tough time being better than Cincinnati and Houston as of late.

 

considering we've finished ahead of milwaukee, cincy and houston in each of the past three years, i'm not really sure what BBB was getting at there.

 

Since he was talking about the ramifications of signing guys like Jacque and Burnitz, I'm guessing he's talking about more than the past there years, when they've finished behind those teams multiple times.