College Football - Week of Oct. 10th

[dew1679666265]

Missouri just went for it on 4th and 2 from the Nebraska 2 yard line with 2 seconds left. The result: TD Missouri and it's 9-0 at halftime instead of 5-0.

 

More teams should go for it in that area.

 

That's probably the only situation I'd consider kicking the FG.

 

The only difference with that situation and any other situation is that the loss of momentum would go with you into halftime.

 

I don't care about the momentum factor. One of the big advantages of going for it is if you fail to convert the other team takes over in awful territory, and you'll likely get the ball back in their territory anyway.

 

That's a good point. My main thinking is that the likelihood of gaining two yards is better than the other team stopping you. And with the torrential downpours that have been going on all day in Missouri, that field goal might have actually been difficult due to the angle and the rain.

[ISUCubsFan]

Missouri just went for it on 4th and 2 from the Nebraska 2 yard line with 2 seconds left. The result: TD Missouri and it's 9-0 at halftime instead of 5-0.

 

More teams should go for it in that area.

 

That's probably the only situation I'd consider kicking the FG.

 

The only difference with that situation and any other situation is that the loss of momentum would go with you into halftime.

 

I don't care about the momentum factor. One of the big advantages of going for it is if you fail to convert the other team takes over in awful territory, and you'll likely get the ball back in their territory anyway.

 

That's a good point. My main thinking is that the likelihood of gaining two yards is better than the other team stopping you. And with the torrential downpours that have been going on all day in Missouri, that field goal might have actually been difficult due to the angle and the rain.

 

In college football last year teams were 65.3% on 4th and goal from the 1, meaning going for it was worth about 4.6 points compared to 3 for a field goal. Given that this was a long yard and the field conditions are awful Missouri had a lower than normal chance, but breakeven is 42.8% assuming the FG is good all the time. They should be better than that, so I think it was a breakeven decision at worst.

 

If this wasn't at half and field position was a factor, the difference between the opponent having the ball at the 1 and having it on an average kickoff (a little past the 30) is around 2.5 additional points. That makes a FG from the 1 in the middle of a half worth about -4 net points compared to going for it. Barring a few late game situations I'd go for it every time.

[E.J.]

Haha. This game is at least becoming interesting.

[E.J.]

Wow. This game has completely changed in about 2 minutes. Sorry Mizzou fans.

[dew1679666265]

Wow. This game has completely changed in about 2 minutes. Sorry Mizzou fans.

 

It's been a crazy game. Nebraska's stormed back much quicker than I expected them too.

[DanzaSlap]

Words can't describe my hatred for Nebraska.

[dew1679666265]

Nebraska just took control of this game.

[manbearcub]

Words can't describe my hatred for Nebraska.

true, but an epic meltdown by mizzou was worth it.

[Guest]

Does anyone know if Butters and TT are still alive?

[DanzaSlap]

Words can't describe my hatred for Nebraska.

true, but an epic meltdown by mizzou was worth it.

 

I hate Nebraska precisely because I'm a Mizzou fan. Nebraska is not good this year, but apparently Mizzou is worse. Wonderful.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Six and a half hours in the cold and rain and we piss it away in the span of 5 minutes. Awful.

[GlassCow]

Six and a half hours in the cold and rain and we piss it away in the span of 5 minutes. Awful.

 

Sorry TT. I've been a Husker fan my entire life and loved the outcome, but I imagine you feel about how I felt a couple of weeks ago when we crapped the bed against Virginia Tech. To so dominate a game for 3 quarters and then just douche it away is a feeling hundreds of times worse than just getting demolished. Good luck to your Tigers for the remainder of the season.

[CubInOK]

Now if only the NCAA would do this at USC...

[NewUserName]

 

In college football last year teams were 65.3% on 4th and goal from the 1, meaning going for it was worth about 4.6 points compared to 3 for a field goal. Given that this was a long yard and the field conditions are awful Missouri had a lower than normal chance, but breakeven is 42.8% assuming the FG is good all the time. They should be better than that, so I think it was a breakeven decision at worst.

 

If this wasn't at half and field position was a factor, the difference between the opponent having the ball at the 1 and having it on an average kickoff (a little past the 30) is around 2.5 additional points. That makes a FG from the 1 in the middle of a half worth about -4 net points compared to going for it. Barring a few late game situations I'd go for it every time.

 

I was watching the Hawks/Wings game so I missed most of the first half. I turned it over to see the last minute or so of the half. I didnt understand why the ESPN guys were making such a big deal about Missouri going for it. I think it is an easy decision. As for Momentum, I think you already lost most of it by settling for a FG in that situation.

[dew1679666265]

 

In college football last year teams were 65.3% on 4th and goal from the 1, meaning going for it was worth about 4.6 points compared to 3 for a field goal. Given that this was a long yard and the field conditions are awful Missouri had a lower than normal chance, but breakeven is 42.8% assuming the FG is good all the time. They should be better than that, so I think it was a breakeven decision at worst.

 

If this wasn't at half and field position was a factor, the difference between the opponent having the ball at the 1 and having it on an average kickoff (a little past the 30) is around 2.5 additional points. That makes a FG from the 1 in the middle of a half worth about -4 net points compared to going for it. Barring a few late game situations I'd go for it every time.

 

I was watching the Hawks/Wings game so I missed most of the first half. I turned it over to see the last minute or so of the half. I didnt understand why the ESPN guys were making such a big deal about Missouri going for it. I think it is an easy decision. As for Momentum, I think you already lost most of it by settling for a FG in that situation.

 

I think that's the reason most coaches don't go for it more - people will criticize it if it doesn't work, even though it's the right decision. One of the announcers last night even said he'll give him credit if it works, but question him if it doesn't. Another, however, gave him credit no matter the outcome.

[Butterscup1679666578]

Words can't describe my hatred for Nebraska.

true, but an epic meltdown by mizzou was worth it.

 

I hate Nebraska precisely because I'm a Mizzou fan. Nebraska is not good this year, but apparently Mizzou is worse. Wonderful.

 

I don't think Nebraska is that much better than us. I thought we were about even coming into the game, and I still think that after last night.

 

What a miserable night though. Had a chance to be probably the greatest game I've ever attended just in terms of the atmosphere. Thursday night, ESPN, against a huge conference rival. Pouring rain and cold. No audio or PA. Power out throughout the entire city besides the stadium and campus hospital. Damn.

 

Mizzou still has a good chance to win the North, but it's going to take some serious work now. I thought if we could split the Nebraska-Kansas games and the Oklahoma State-Texas games, we could go 10-2 and probably win the North. I figured we'd beat Nebraska and probably lose to Kansas, and beat Oklahoma State and lose to Texas. I have very little confidence we'll win @ OK State next week, and suddenly we could be looking at three straight losses and probably an 8-4 record.

[NewUserName]

 

In college football last year teams were 65.3% on 4th and goal from the 1, meaning going for it was worth about 4.6 points compared to 3 for a field goal. Given that this was a long yard and the field conditions are awful Missouri had a lower than normal chance, but breakeven is 42.8% assuming the FG is good all the time. They should be better than that, so I think it was a breakeven decision at worst.

 

If this wasn't at half and field position was a factor, the difference between the opponent having the ball at the 1 and having it on an average kickoff (a little past the 30) is around 2.5 additional points. That makes a FG from the 1 in the middle of a half worth about -4 net points compared to going for it. Barring a few late game situations I'd go for it every time.

 

I was watching the Hawks/Wings game so I missed most of the first half. I turned it over to see the last minute or so of the half. I didnt understand why the ESPN guys were making such a big deal about Missouri going for it. I think it is an easy decision. As for Momentum, I think you already lost most of it by settling for a FG in that situation.

 

I think that's the reason most coaches don't go for it more - people will criticize it if it doesn't work, even though it's the right decision. One of the announcers last night even said he'll give him credit if it works, but question him if it doesn't. Another, however, gave him credit no matter the outcome.

 

Yeah, Like baseball the talking heads and their conventional wisdom have way too much influence over large groups of fans.

[dew1679666265]

Yeah, Like baseball the talking heads and their conventional wisdom have way too much influence over large groups of fans.

 

It "seems" like the right decision to get the easy points, though. I can easily see why people would be opposed to going for it, but the percentages are definitely in favor of going for it.

[bcl412]

Is it 7 yet?

[inari]

Is it 7 yet?

 

Can't come soon enough. Heading to the tailgate in... 3 hours.

[Derwood]

since the decision to put the PSU game on ESPN Classic has made this a bye week for me, it's time to figure out what other games to watch.

 

but seriously.....why isn't my game on Big Ten Network?

[bcl412]

since the decision to put the PSU game on ESPN Classic has made this a bye week for me, it's time to figure out what other games to watch.

 

but seriously.....why isn't my game on Big Ten Network?

 

The morning slate doesn't look that good. It's kind of sad when the only game that I kind of want to watch this morning is Iowa State (I'd like to see them beat Kansas even though it won't happen)

 

PS Penn State's Iowa curse continues when Jake Christensen carves up PSU's D.

 

Or not.

[E.J.]

Is it 7 yet?

 

Can't say I'm all that optimistic about Michigan hanging with Iowa tonight. The only thing Michigan has going for it is that Iowa's offense has been rather pedestrian so far this season with Stanzi throwing quite a few interceptions. Won't really matter though since Michigan's defense features 2 walk-on players and a cornerback position that has seen 3 players try to step up and win the job, but all fail miserably.

[bcl412]

Is it 7 yet?

 

Can't say I'm all that optimistic about Michigan hanging with Iowa tonight. The only thing Michigan has going for it is that Iowa's offense has been rather pedestrian so far this season with Stanzi throwing quite a few interceptions. Won't really matter though since Michigan's defense features 2 walk-on players and a cornerback position that has seen 3 players try to step up and win the job, but all fail miserably.

 

Stanzi has probably given the other team as many touchdowns as the defense has allowed. That being said, I think Stanzi is improving. I'm still expecting a break out game from him soon. Tonight would be a good start (not for you of course).

[Exile on Waveland]

since the decision to put the PSU game on ESPN Classic has made this a bye week for me, it's time to figure out what other games to watch.

 

but seriously.....why isn't my game on Big Ten Network?

 

IU is on espn360. Which isn't available with my internet provider. Isn't the purpose of the Big Ten Network to allow us to watch all the games? I'm intrigued by IU-UVA too. And it's not like I can go to a bar and watch it.