Hill to replace Soto

[wvcbxl]

The only stupid argument that hasn't been used in support of Hill is team record while he's catching.

 

Inevitably, that did get mentioned in the Tribune article link that was posted.

[hardcorecubfan]

Hill+Soto=Pitifull year at the catching position

[Wheelimus]

It would be smarter to put Fox at catcher just to get the at bats than it is to bench Soto for Hill.

 

Hint: neither of those moves would be very smart

[treebird]

Soto was horrible for the first 6 weeks of the year. Like, I can't believe this is physically possible to hit this bad horrible. This is mostly due to what I'm going to call the worst luck on balls in play in the history of the world. Since then he's hit .235/.333/.454/.787. If you want to bench him because the Cubs are done and you think his body will wear down in the next couple weeks, fine. But if you want to bench him because you want to "send a message", or actually prefer Hill get the at bats down the stretch, then this is a really, really dumb decision.

 

 

this needs to be bumped on to every page of the thread in case someone rational is accidentally reading this thread

[YearofDaCubs]

Does it really matter who the catcher is? The Cubs are done this year. Let's hope Soto does a better job getting in shape during this offseason than he did last year.

[Sammy Sofa]

Holy Christ, this thread is like a retahded supermagnet.

[Bull]

I kind of feel compelled to chime in on this thread (if you don't know why, don't worry about it), though I have nothing particularly compelling to add.

 

I see this year as a necessary phase in the development of Soto. He rose so suddenly out of non-prospect status, that there was bound to be some recoil as the league figured him out. I really believe he'll rebound next year to be an above average (but not elite) offensive catcher. It is still possible that he is Jerome Williams, Rick Wilkins (whose career OPS+ was 100 BTW).

 

I just don't believe this is all about conditioning.

 

also: http://www.ninds.nih.gov/disorders/sotos/sotos.htm

[Little Slide Rooter]

The thing to do is give Soto 2010 to prove whether 2008 or 2009 was the fluke. If 2009 was a fluke, then hes our guy. if 2008 was the fluke, then throw lots of money at Joe Mauer assuming we can afford it by then, and assuming the Twins havnt extended him.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Isnt Jason Kendall going to be a free agent in the off season

[Flames24Rulz]

Soto was horrible for the first 6 weeks of the year. Like, I can't believe this is physically possible to hit this bad horrible. This is mostly due to what I'm going to call the worst luck on balls in play in the history of the world. Since then he's hit .235/.333/.454/.787. If you want to bench him because the Cubs are done and you think his body will wear down in the next couple weeks, fine. But if you want to bench him because you want to "send a message", or actually prefer Hill get the at bats down the stretch, then this is a really, really dumb decision.

 

 

this needs to be bumped on to every page of the thread in case someone rational is accidentally reading this thread

 

I think most of the people in this thread have been pretty rational, save the two or three extreme false thoughts.

[Fred Hornkohl]

The only stupid argument that hasn't been used in support of Hill is team record while he's catching.

 

Inevitably, that did get mentioned in the Tribune article link that was posted.

 

It's also been mentioned in this thread..... but what the hell.......

 

CUBS are 32-42 when Soto starts..... 33-21 when K Hill starts
CUBS pitchers' ERA in games that Soto starts 4.24..... in games that K Hill starts 3.38
CUBS' Runs scored per game when Soto starts 3.93.... when K Hill starts 5.15
Opponents runs scored per game when Soto starts 4.49.... when K Hill starts 4.00
CUBS run differential when Soto starts -43.... when K Hill starts +62

[Outshined_One]

The only stupid argument that hasn't been used in support of Hill is team record while he's catching.

 

Inevitably, that did get mentioned in the Tribune article link that was posted.

 

It's also been mentioned in this thread..... but what the hell.......

 

CUBS are 32-42 when Soto starts..... 33-21 when K Hill starts
CUBS pitchers' ERA in games that Soto starts 4.24..... in games that K Hill starts 3.38
CUBS' Runs scored per game when Soto starts 3.93.... when K Hill starts 5.15
Opponents runs scored per game when Soto starts 4.49.... when K Hill starts 4.00
CUBS run differential when Soto starts -43.... when K Hill starts +62

 

What's the overlap for when Soto and Ramirez were out at the same time?

[CUBZ99]

The only stupid argument that hasn't been used in support of Hill is team record while he's catching.

 

Inevitably, that did get mentioned in the Tribune article link that was posted.

 

It's also been mentioned in this thread..... but what the hell.......

 

CUBS are 32-42 when Soto starts..... 33-21 when K Hill starts
CUBS pitchers' ERA in games that Soto starts 4.24..... in games that K Hill starts 3.38
CUBS' Runs scored per game when Soto starts 3.93.... when K Hill starts 5.15
Opponents runs scored per game when Soto starts 4.49.... when K Hill starts 4.00
CUBS run differential when Soto starts -43.... when K Hill starts +62

 

Those stats bode well for Hill. I would be interested to find out if the pitchers like throwing to Hill more than Soto.

[Rob]

CERA is a junk stat with no predicative value. Those stats really don't mean a thing... let alone bode well for Hill.

[Fred Hornkohl]

CERA is a junk stat with no predicative value. Those stats really don't mean a thing... let alone bode well for Hill.

 

CERA does, indeed, have it's limitations. Can you list for us what those limitations are ? Can you comprehend why they aren't applicable in this case ?

[imb]

i can definitely buy that a catcher, by virtue of understanding opponents' tendencies and pitching strategy in general, could have an effect on a pitchers' ERA. I don't think that requires much of a leap.

 

I don't think that you can just take two catches in a one-year span (or in this case, 3/4 season span) and make a judgement that one is a better-game caller than another. Seems like it would be impossible to separate the noise in this case.

[Fred Hornkohl]

i can definitely buy that a catcher, by virtue of understanding opponents' tendencies and pitching strategy in general, could have an effect on a pitchers' ERA. I don't think that requires much of a leap.

 

I don't think that you can just take two catches in a one-year span (or in this case, 3/4 season span) and make a judgement that one is a better-game caller than another. Seems like it would be impossible to separate the noise in this case.

 

I might agree with that if the difference wasn't nearly a whole R/G after 120 games. Perhaps there's something more at work here, like the confidence level of the pitchers ??

[rocket]

i can definitely buy that a catcher, by virtue of understanding opponents' tendencies and pitching strategy in general, could have an effect on a pitchers' ERA. I don't think that requires much of a leap.

 

I don't think that you can just take two catches in a one-year span (or in this case, 3/4 season span) and make a judgement that one is a better-game caller than another. Seems like it would be impossible to separate the noise in this case.

 

I might agree with that if the difference wasn't nearly a whole R/G after 120 games. Perhaps there's something more at work here, like the confidence level of the pitchers ??

 

what are the individual pitchers' stats with each catcher? is it a matter of koyie hill being behind the plate more often when a better pitcher is on the mound?

[treebird]

did soto forget how to catch in the offseason? everybody seemed to love him last year.

[Outshined_One]

i can definitely buy that a catcher, by virtue of understanding opponents' tendencies and pitching strategy in general, could have an effect on a pitchers' ERA. I don't think that requires much of a leap.

 

I don't think that you can just take two catches in a one-year span (or in this case, 3/4 season span) and make a judgement that one is a better-game caller than another. Seems like it would be impossible to separate the noise in this case.

 

I might agree with that if the difference wasn't nearly a whole R/G after 120 games. Perhaps there's something more at work here, like the confidence level of the pitchers ??

 

The words "small sample size" come to mind.

[Fred Hornkohl]

i can definitely buy that a catcher, by virtue of understanding opponents' tendencies and pitching strategy in general, could have an effect on a pitchers' ERA. I don't think that requires much of a leap.

 

I don't think that you can just take two catches in a one-year span (or in this case, 3/4 season span) and make a judgement that one is a better-game caller than another. Seems like it would be impossible to separate the noise in this case.

 

I might agree with that if the difference wasn't nearly a whole R/G after 120 games. Perhaps there's something more at work here, like the confidence level of the pitchers ??

 

The words "small sample size" come to mind.

 

This from a lawyer and not a statistician, eh?

[Rob]

CERA is a junk stat with no predicative value. Those stats really don't mean a thing... let alone bode well for Hill.

 

CERA does, indeed, have it's limitations. Can you list for us what those limitations are ? Can you comprehend why they aren't applicable in this case ?

 

Quite simply, there are far too many variables to neutralize or even out over such a short sample size. The opposing team's health and performance. Where the games are played. What the weather is like when playing. The health of your own team. And when you have your starter missing a month, plus other injuries forcing player changes, it becomes even harder to account for the changes... especially with such a ridiculously simple formula.

 

Even if you want to give Koyie Hill 100% of the credit for the better pitching performances (and there's no reason to give him any at all, as every single attempt to quantify or prove that certain catchers can call a better game has come up inconclusive at best or proven outright wrong at worst), Alfonso Soriano hit .337/.412/.558 during the month where Soto was out and Hill got all the starts. Now does it really seem fair to you to assign the brunt of the positive impact on our team's offensive output, run differential, and record to Koyie Hill's .194/.262/.258 line in that time?

[DiamondMind]

I refuse to get into a slapping duel with the Soto homers on here, but this move didn't come soon enough. Hill's outplayed Soto all year. Spare me the OPS+, please.

 

Get Soto's head on straight, make him play winter ball, etc etc, and we'll see him behind the plate on opening day '10. There's just..ugh...there's no purpose in his plump self being out there right now .

[inari]

I refuse to get into a slapping duel with the Soto homers on here, but this move didn't come soon enough. Hill's outplayed Soto all year. Spare me the OPS+, please.

 

Get Soto's head on straight, make him play winter ball, etc etc, and we'll see him behind the plate on opening day '10. There's just..ugh...there's no purpose in his plump self being out there right now .

 

So what stat would you like then? There's a lot of them and they all show Soto has been better.

[imb]

i can definitely buy that a catcher, by virtue of understanding opponents' tendencies and pitching strategy in general, could have an effect on a pitchers' ERA. I don't think that requires much of a leap.

 

I don't think that you can just take two catches in a one-year span (or in this case, 3/4 season span) and make a judgement that one is a better-game caller than another. Seems like it would be impossible to separate the noise in this case.

 

I might agree with that if the difference wasn't nearly a whole R/G after 120 games. Perhaps there's something more at work here, like the confidence level of the pitchers ??

 

You still can't draw anything of note from the R/G totals by themselves. You could guess, and you might be right, but there's no way of knowing.

 

For instance, look at this stat

 

CUBS' Runs scored per game when Soto starts 3.93.... when K Hill starts 5.15

 

Why are the Cubs scoring over a R/G more when Hill hits even though he's been worse statistically than Soto? Because there are lots of other variables involved.