Minor League Discussion & Boxes 7-7-2009

[Tony Thomas]

Does anyone think that Tony Campana can turn into a Scott Podsednick type of player?

 

I'm not seeing it, and I think next to nothing of Podsednik.

Scott Podsednick was and still is a good bench type of player with a lot of speed off the bench.

[squally1313]

219/290/509

 

Glad to see we're not potentially rushing our top hitting prospect or anything...Also, when does his defense begin to become a serious concern? 5 errors in 8 games?

 

Too late now, but we should have just let him destroy A ball and prove he's done all he could there, rather than taking one month of amazing production surrounded by two average/subpar months and saying he was good. Again, there is absolutely no hurry.

 

You're right. 31 ABs tell us all we need to know about Vitters. He clearly is horrible.

 

You're right. Clearly I used the word "horrible" in my last post. Defense aside, the post wasn't even about Vitters and his skill set. The kid's obviously got a lot of talent, but he's only 19 years old. I think everyone can agree that it's going to be awhile before we determine how he's going to end up.

 

Really, it was just a frustrated post on a topic already covered when he was first promoted: Basically, why? Vitters was, outside of his last 4 games in A ball, going through what was most likely his first prolonged slump of his entire life. He puts it together for a couple games, and Hendry/whoever decides that he needs to face tougher pitching? At 19?

 

I just don't get the rationale. He goes 0-18 from June 8-June 12, then puts together a respectable (nothing special, since he's not walking at all yet) .315 (18/57) average over the next 13 games and apparently he's mastered A ball. I admit I haven't been following prospects for as long as most of you guys have, but I find it very hard to see him having any future success if he's walking 7 times in 288 plate appearances in A ball. And if he didn't get it there, I'm not sure how it's going to develop faster in A+, with better pitchers and more pressure to succeed. I would have let him stay in A ball, where he knew he could hit the pitching, and try to gain a little discipline before pushing him up. Again, I don't see why there should be any sort of hurry with what is likely (and hopefully) one of the few top 5 picks we're going to have in our organization. That's all I was trying to say.

[Guest]

Richard Jones just hit his 4th HR in 25 at bats with Mesa.

[Outshined_One]

You're right. Clearly I used the word "horrible" in my last post. Defense aside, the post wasn't even about Vitters and his skill set. The kid's obviously got a lot of talent, but he's only 19 years old. I think everyone can agree that it's going to be awhile before we determine how he's going to end up.

 

Really, it was just a frustrated post on a topic already covered when he was first promoted: Basically, why? Vitters was, outside of his last 4 games in A ball, going through what was most likely his first prolonged slump of his entire life. He puts it together for a couple games, and Hendry/whoever decides that he needs to face tougher pitching? At 19?

 

I just don't get the rationale. He goes 0-18 from June 8-June 12, then puts together a respectable (nothing special, since he's not walking at all yet) .315 (18/57) average over the next 13 games and apparently he's mastered A ball. I admit I haven't been following prospects for as long as most of you guys have, but I find it very hard to see him having any future success if he's walking 7 times in 288 plate appearances in A ball. And if he didn't get it there, I'm not sure how it's going to develop faster in A+, with better pitchers and more pressure to succeed. I would have let him stay in A ball, where he knew he could hit the pitching, and try to gain a little discipline before pushing him up. Again, I don't see why there should be any sort of hurry with what is likely (and hopefully) one of the few top 5 picks we're going to have in our organization. That's all I was trying to say.

 

I think there are a couple of things worth noting about him...

 

1) Had he been fully healthy last season, he would have been in Peoria for much longer than he was. If you look at other HS draftees like Matt Dominguez, Mike Moustakas, and Jason Heyward, they all started the season in Low A and are now in High A. Vitters would have been at the same level as them had he been healthy, but instead he had to prove he was fully healed.

 

2) Vitters spent spring training with Daytona's squad. If you check back to some threads around the end of spring training, there was some amount of surprise that Vitters didn't skip Peoria. It's honestly not much of a surprise that the Cubs wouldn't keep him down in Peoria for very long.

 

3) He finished his time in Peoria with a .316/.351/.535 line. That's pretty snazzy. Considering that slumps and hot streaks happen pretty frequently, especially in the minors where you don't see as much consistency out of hitters, you have to look at guys in terms of the whole picture, rather than over scattered bits of time. It's also hard to get a handle on how lucky/unlucky guys are during slumps since we don't know if he's peppering the field with line drives directly at fielders or if he was flailing away weakly. This leads into my last point...

 

4) Most importantly, unfortunately for us, we do not have a window into the Cubs' front office. We've seen glimpses of it. From what I've learned, you can never totally trust the numbers you see out of prospects because the Cubs do things like tell hitters not to swing at certain kinds of pitchers, tell pitchers not to throw certain pitches, etc. It's part of the development process for prospects and, unfortunately, it impacts their numbers. Whatever it is the Cubs wanted out of Vitters in Peoria, he clearly gave them that.

 

If you want a guess, given the timing of his promotion, I'm guessing the Cubs decided awhile ago to promote him to Daytona, but decided to hold off on it so that he could enjoy the fruits of his labors at the MWL All Star Game. Now he'll face more advanced pitchers and have to adjust. If he can get back on his feet at Daytona and produce comparable numbers to what he was doing in Peoria...yikes.

[Outshined_One]

Per the Chiefs website:

 

IF Josh Harrison Promoted to Daytona

IF Jovan Rosa Demoted to Peoria

 

Link

[squally1313]

 

I think there are a couple of things worth noting about him...

 

1) Had he been fully healthy last season, he would have been in Peoria for much longer than he was. If you look at other HS draftees like Matt Dominguez, Mike Moustakas, and Jason Heyward, they all started the season in Low A and are now in High A. Vitters would have been at the same level as them had he been healthy, but instead he had to prove he was fully healed.

 

2) Vitters spent spring training with Daytona's squad. If you check back to some threads around the end of spring training, there was some amount of surprise that Vitters didn't skip Peoria. It's honestly not much of a surprise that the Cubs wouldn't keep him down in Peoria for very long.

 

3) He finished his time in Peoria with a .316/.351/.535 line. That's pretty snazzy. Considering that slumps and hot streaks happen pretty frequently, especially in the minors where you don't see as much consistency out of hitters, you have to look at guys in terms of the whole picture, rather than over scattered bits of time. It's also hard to get a handle on how lucky/unlucky guys are during slumps since we don't know if he's peppering the field with line drives directly at fielders or if he was flailing away weakly. This leads into my last point...

 

4) Most importantly, unfortunately for us, we do not have a window into the Cubs' front office. We've seen glimpses of it. From what I've learned, you can never totally trust the numbers you see out of prospects because the Cubs do things like tell hitters not to swing at certain kinds of pitchers, tell pitchers not to throw certain pitches, etc. It's part of the development process for prospects and, unfortunately, it impacts their numbers. Whatever it is the Cubs wanted out of Vitters in Peoria, he clearly gave them that.

 

If you want a guess, given the timing of his promotion, I'm guessing the Cubs decided awhile ago to promote him to Daytona, but decided to hold off on it so that he could enjoy the fruits of his labors at the MWL All Star Game. Now he'll face more advanced pitchers and have to adjust. If he can get back on his feet at Daytona and produce comparable numbers to what he was doing in Peoria...yikes.

 

Thanks for all of that...like I said, I know how much time you spend on this kind of stuff. Didn't mean for the original post to appear as though I was ready to condemn his career after 31 at bats.

 

To me, by far my biggest worry is that tiny number in the walks column. No matter what kind of average he hits for at whatever level he's at, it needs to improve. As someone who knows very little about minor league development, it would seem to me that the best way for him to do that was against pitching he knew he could hit. He goes around A ball again, starts seeing the same pitchers, and he can develop an eye for the strike zone, knowing that even if he gets to two strikes, his hitting skill is still superior enough to bail him out. I worry that he's at high A ball right now expanding his strike zone and swinging at a lot of first pitches, looking for fast balls. His stroke projects to be very above average. But his discipline needs work.

 

On your fourth point, I guess that's another reason for my frustration. Obviously the front office is a pretty frequent target around here...obviously this is a lot different than questioning Lou's lineups or pitching choices, since there's not a lot of statistics to determine how to properly raise a top prospect, but their track record for guys as talented as this isn't good. I could be wrong, but it seems like they've had a history of rushing people. I was too young to remember what kind of prospect Corey Patterson was, so this comparison could be way off base, but I'm seeing some similarities, at least in their numbers, that I don't like. Unlike Mous/Dominguez/Heyward(to an extent), we don't need Vitters' bat at Wrigley anytime soon.

 

I don't know...obviously we need to see more of him at high A to determine how he's doing...but just worried about the handling more than anything else.

[Outshined_One]

I know they add in the length of rain delays after the game is completely over so I was hoping it was just a short delay.

 

45 minutes is inexcusable, even if Carpenter didn't have the injury history that he does.

 

It indeed was 45 minutes.

 

The rains came in the top of the third inning and delayed the ball game 45 minutes.

 

What an asinine move.

[Tony Thomas]

Per the Chiefs website:

 

IF Josh Harrison Promoted to Daytona

IF Jovan Rosa Demoted to Peoria

 

Link

Josh Harrison getting promoted is way overdue. He deserved to be called up at least a month ago.

[ChiefsVoice]

Per the Chiefs website:

 

IF Josh Harrison Promoted to Daytona

IF Jovan Rosa Demoted to Peoria

 

Link

Josh Harrison getting promoted is way overdue. He deserved to be called up at least a month ago.

 

Agreed but they were working on specific things with Josh. Taking more pitches, playing multiple positions, base-running and being a bit more selective at what pitches he swings at.

[jersey cubs fan]

You're right. Clearly I used the word "horrible" in my last post. Defense aside, the post wasn't even about Vitters and his skill set. The kid's obviously got a lot of talent, but he's only 19 years old. I think everyone can agree that it's going to be awhile before we determine how he's going to end up. .

 

I think there are a couple of things worth noting about him...

 

1) Had he been fully healthy last season, he would have been in Peoria for much longer than he was. If you look at other HS draftees like Matt Dominguez, Mike Moustakas, and Jason Heyward, they all started the season in Low A and are now in High A. Vitters would have been at the same level as them had he been healthy, but instead he had to prove he was fully healed.

 

2) Vitters spent spring training with Daytona's squad. If you check back to some threads around the end of spring training, there was some amount of surprise that Vitters didn't skip Peoria. It's honestly not much of a surprise that the Cubs wouldn't keep him down in Peoria for very long.

 

I don't think either of those things are worth noting. Who cares if he would have spent more time in Peoria had he been healthy? The fact is he wasn't, and in his time in Peoria he had not shown he had mastered the level. He's still young and it looks very clearly like they have begun the process of rushing him. Given the Cubs track record, I think it's perfectly fair and legitimate to question their decision making with these young guys. Everybody in the organization is in jeopardly of losing their jobs with new ownership coming on board. It's in their personal best interest to show as much progress as possible as soon as possible. It looks good to say their top draft pick got a promotion, but the problem is the timing of it made little sense.

[Outshined_One]

I don't think either of those things are worth noting. Who cares if he would have spent more time in Peoria had he been healthy? The fact is he wasn't, and in his time in Peoria he had not shown he had mastered the level. He's still young and it looks very clearly like they have begun the process of rushing him. Given the Cubs track record, I think it's perfectly fair and legitimate to question their decision making with these young guys. Everybody in the organization is in jeopardly of losing their jobs with new ownership coming on board. It's in their personal best interest to show as much progress as possible as soon as possible. It looks good to say their top draft pick got a promotion, but the problem is the timing of it made little sense.

 

Regarding his time in Peoria, I was talking about last season, not this season. My bottom line point was that he was good enough last season to play in Peoria for an extended period of time, but because injuries set back his development, he did not. Instead, he had to get back on track in EXST and Boise.

 

Also, it's incredibly cynical to blame this promotion on people who are worried they'll lose their jobs, so they want to impress new ownership by promoting Vitters. Honestly, what would that accomplish? If Vitters falls on his face in Daytona and they knew he wasn't ready for it, wouldn't that make them even more likely to lose their jobs? Plus, considering this sale has been ongoing for what seems like the past decade, why start now with this sort of behavior? Why not rush Jay Jackson to the majors? Why didn't Andrew Cashner start in AAA? That argument doesn't fly for me.

 

People like to paint a picture of Vitters that he only had one good month, but let's go to the splits.

 

April: .302/.348/.413, .353 BABIP, 43.4/15.1/41.5 GB/LD/FB%, 11/2 K/BB

May: .386/.417/.754, .381 BABIP, 39.6/10.4/50 GB/LD/FB %, 18/3 K/BB

June: .239/.274/.352, .257 BABIP, 42.3/15.4/42.3 GB/LD/FB %, 12/3 K/BB

 

Given those numbers, he had more than one month of success. He had some bad luck on balls put into play in June; nothing suggests he was flailing away at bad pitches during that time considering his June peripherals were comparable to his April peripherals (save for much better power numbers). I'm guessing the only thing that changed in June was that he started hitting balls directly at people, meaning he ran into bad luck, not that he was regressing or struggling. Bad luck is something he can work on in Daytona.

 

The timing made sense. He clearly was ready for a promotion and he was promoted immediately after the MWL All Star Game.

[squally1313]

I know this is now yesterday's thread and whatnot, but just had a couple more thoughts...

 

While I don't agree with jersey on the theory that people are worried about losing their jobs and wanted to "show improvement," I very much agree with him on the injury thing. O_O, you're almost making it seem like he has to catch up to the other draftees of that year because of his missed time, which I don't think should be the case at all. Vitters had just over 300 PAs in A ball, Moustakas had 549, Heyward had 508, Dominguez had 381. Even compared to Dominguez, who is in an organization that tends to rush people, Vitters still had 80 less plate appearances. Why not keep him there for another month, at least, until he starts hitting like he did in May.

 

Regarding his splits over the three months in A ball, put me down as someone who's not all that impressed by his April numbers. Yes, his peripherals are mostly the same as they are in June, but they aren't very good. His BABIP in April was .353; there's only 24 players in MLB right now with a BABIP that high, and every single one of them has a LD% higher than Vitters does. Not to mention that Vitters put up that BABIP against much worse defense. While I agree that a .257 BABIP in June was unlucky, I think there's a pretty decent chance it could be closer to the truth than the other two months. Besides all that, a .751 OPS for April with almost zero plate discipline doesn't strike me as a good month. Yes, May was unbelievable....but I think we should have given him time to show he could repeat or sustain a high level of success.

 

 

You made the point earlier about how we only have limited information to work with when looking at minor leaguers, and that the organization must have seen progress that they thought warranted the promotion. While that's entirely true (I've never watched a Peoria game), that's all we have to work on, and a huge part of this site is questioning the moves of the organization, from Hendry and Lou all the way down to the base coaches and minor league instructors. And their success rate in cases like this is pretty awful. So yes, I fully agree they believe Vitters is ready for high A ball. I just don't agree with them.

[Outshined_One]

I think we've exhausted this discussion fairly effectively and no one's going to be changing their minds any time soon. Good chat, though!

 

One final point about BABIP. Usually the average BABIP gets higher and higher the further down you go into the majors. Something like .353 might seem really out of whack in the majors, it doesn't deviate nearly as much at Low A. I can't remember what the exact numbers are on a level by level basis, but if I find them I'll post them.

[Vanilla Ice]

All this Vitters talk makes me think that it is time to post this picture

 

http://photos-f.ak.fbcdn.net/photos-ak-snc1/v369/228/109/1511774/n1511774_37707917_2058.jpg

 

L-R: Matt Cerda, Nathan Samson, Vitters, Brandon Guyer

[Outshined_One]

All this Vitters talk makes me think that it is time to post this picture

 

http://photos-f.ak.fbcdn.net/photos-ak-snc1/v369/228/109/1511774/n1511774_37707917_2058.jpg

 

L-R: Matt Cerda, Nathan Samson, Vitters, Brandon Guyer

 

:shock: :-s :blink:

[RedFlash]

Oh boy, we got the "Mean Street Posse" reuniting. Or are they reuniting the "Spirit Squad"? :twisted:

[Wabasha31]

Oh boy, we got the "Mean Street Posse" reuniting. Or are they reuniting the "Spirit Squad"? :twisted:

 

Little of column A. Little of column B.

[weis21]

:-s

 

Did you personally take that picture?