Soriano leaving leadoff spot?

[dew1679666265]

Vlad also has a .329 OBP post season, which is not good, but not horrible either. Soriano is looking at a .263 OBP in the post season. He has proven he can't hit or get on base, which means there is no way he should bat leadoff in the post.

 

Should we stick Vlad in the leadoff spot?

 

The point is that postseason success - or lack thereof - happens even with fantastic hitters. I listed Hall of Famers who were terrible in the postseason. However, if Joe Dimaggio or Ty Cobb or Jeff Bagwell were on the Cubs this year, I wouldn't hesitate to plug them right into the heart of the order the minute the playoffs started.

 

I would also more than happily bat Vlad Guerrero anywhere in the top 3 spots of the lineup in the playoffs. Bad postseason numbers or not - it's too small a sample size to make any type of evaluation on it.

 

The argument you're making here, though, it seems, is that because a Vlad Guerrero or a Mike Piazza doesn't have good postseason numbers, he shouldn't bat at the top of the order. Am I misrepresenting you?

[Arnold Layne]

Here are some interesting tidbits from players I consider to be good to great.

 

Ty Cobb career postseason OPS: .668

 

Mark McGwire career postseason OPS: .669

 

Todd Helton career postseason OPS: .615

 

Mike Schmidt career postseason OPS: .690

 

Jeff Bagwell career postseason OPS: .675

 

Craig Biggio career postseason OPS: .620

 

And some others who fared better, but not particularly well: Mike Piazza: .756, Miguel Cabrera: .786, Joe Dimaggio: .760

 

 

Only one of those players has more PS at bats than Soriano, and that's Dimaggio. I wouldn't consider anything under 100 AB in the post season an indicator.

 

The rest:

 

64 AB, .314 OBP for Cobb

 

129 AB, .320 OBP for Mcgwire

 

47 AB, .317 OBP for Helton

 

140 AB, .304 OBP for Schmidt

 

106 AB .354 OBP for Bagwell

 

167 AB .297 OBP for Biggio

 

120 AB .301 OBP Piazza

 

68 AB, .315 OBP for Cabrera

 

174 AB, .263 OBP Soriano

[Arnold Layne]

I would also more than happily bat Vlad Guerrero anywhere in the top 3 spots of the lineup in the playoffs. Bad postseason numbers or not - it's too small a sample size to make any type of evaluation on it.

 

I think +100 is a reasonable although not ideal indicator of post season ability. Some guys are cut out for the pressure, some are not.

 

The argument you're making here, though, it seems, is that because a Vlad Guerrero or a Mike Piazza doesn't have good postseason numbers, he shouldn't bat at the top of the order. Am I misrepresenting you?

 

I'm saying they should not be batting leadoff.

[dew1679666265]

Here are some interesting tidbits from players I consider to be good to great.

 

Ty Cobb career postseason OPS: .668

 

Mark McGwire career postseason OPS: .669

 

Todd Helton career postseason OPS: .615

 

Mike Schmidt career postseason OPS: .690

 

Jeff Bagwell career postseason OPS: .675

 

Craig Biggio career postseason OPS: .620

 

And some others who fared better, but not particularly well: Mike Piazza: .756, Miguel Cabrera: .786, Joe Dimaggio: .760

 

 

Only one of those players has more PS at bats than Soriano, and that's Dimaggio. I wouldn't consider anything under 100 AB in the post season an indicator.

 

The rest:

 

64 AB, .314 OBP for Cobb

 

129 AB, .320 OBP for Mcgwire

 

47 AB, .317 OBP for Helton

 

140 AB, .304 OBP for Schmidt

 

106 AB .354 OBP for Bagwell

 

167 AB .297 OBP for Biggio

 

120 AB .301 OBP Piazza

 

68 AB, .315 OBP for Cabrera

 

174 AB, .263 OBP Soriano

 

Why is 100 ABs the magical cutoff point? At 150 ABs numbers still can be altered drastically by a small number of at bats. Soriano's current numbers could shift 20-30 points in the span of 10-15 ABs (less than a postseason's worth). Why do 100 at bats become useful in evaluation and why wouldn't you want an even larger sample size (such as the entire regular season)?

 

Also, Biggio, Piazza, Schmidt and McGwire all have more than 100 ABs in the postseason and have horrific OBPs. Would you drop them in the order?

[dew1679666265]

I would also more than happily bat Vlad Guerrero anywhere in the top 3 spots of the lineup in the playoffs. Bad postseason numbers or not - it's too small a sample size to make any type of evaluation on it.

 

I think +100 is a reasonable although not ideal indicator of post season ability. Some guys are cut out for the pressure, some are not.

 

Whether or not a guy can handle pressure is not a productive discussion because it cannot be proven. And why are 100 ABs in the postseason a better indication of a player than Hall of Fame career numbers?

 

The argument you're making here, though, it seems, is that because a Vlad Guerrero or a Mike Piazza doesn't have good postseason numbers, he shouldn't bat at the top of the order. Am I misrepresenting you?

 

I'm saying they should not be batting leadoff.

 

But they can bat second or third in the order? If you judge only on their postseason numbers, they're terrible hitters. Why would you want terrible hitters anywhere near the top of your lineup?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I would also more than happily bat Vlad Guerrero anywhere in the top 3 spots of the lineup in the playoffs. Bad postseason numbers or not - it's too small a sample size to make any type of evaluation on it.

 

I think +100 is a reasonable although not ideal indicator of post season ability. Some guys are cut out for the pressure, some are not.

 

The argument you're making here, though, it seems, is that because a Vlad Guerrero or a Mike Piazza doesn't have good postseason numbers, he shouldn't bat at the top of the order. Am I misrepresenting you?

 

I'm saying they should not be batting leadoff.

 

So, the Astros shouldn't have batted Biggio lead-off in all of those postseasons?

[Guest]

Scott Podsednik has a playoff line of .286/.375/.551/.926.

 

That's all that really needs to be said about postseason numbers.

[17 Seconds]

Here are some interesting tidbits from players I consider to be good to great.

 

Ty Cobb career postseason OPS: .668

 

Mark McGwire career postseason OPS: .669

 

Todd Helton career postseason OPS: .615

 

Mike Schmidt career postseason OPS: .690

 

Jeff Bagwell career postseason OPS: .675

 

Craig Biggio career postseason OPS: .620

 

And some others who fared better, but not particularly well: Mike Piazza: .756, Miguel Cabrera: .786, Joe Dimaggio: .760

 

 

Only one of those players has more PS at bats than Soriano, and that's Dimaggio. I wouldn't consider anything under 100 AB in the post season an indicator.

 

The rest:

 

64 AB, .314 OBP for Cobb

 

129 AB, .320 OBP for Mcgwire

 

47 AB, .317 OBP for Helton

 

140 AB, .304 OBP for Schmidt

 

106 AB .354 OBP for Bagwell

 

167 AB .297 OBP for Biggio

 

120 AB .301 OBP Piazza

 

68 AB, .315 OBP for Cabrera

 

174 AB, .263 OBP Soriano

 

Why is 100 ABs the magical cutoff point?

 

Because that's what makes his argument look better

[Arnold Layne]

I would also more than happily bat Vlad Guerrero anywhere in the top 3 spots of the lineup in the playoffs. Bad postseason numbers or not - it's too small a sample size to make any type of evaluation on it.

 

I think +100 is a reasonable although not ideal indicator of post season ability. Some guys are cut out for the pressure, some are not.

 

The argument you're making here, though, it seems, is that because a Vlad Guerrero or a Mike Piazza doesn't have good postseason numbers, he shouldn't bat at the top of the order. Am I misrepresenting you?

 

I'm saying they should not be batting leadoff.

 

So, the Astros shouldn't have batted Biggio lead-off in all of those postseasons?

 

They were also a bad post season team.

[dew1679666265]

They were also a bad post season team.

 

Trips to the NLCS and World Series in consecutive seasons is bad? Plus considering they won 89 and 92 games in the respective regular seasons - good, but not dominant - that's a pretty good playoff performance.

 

Also, in those two years, Biggio had an 1.105 and .907 OPS in each NLDS. Had the Astros judged him more off of the four previous awful playoff series (tiny sample sizes) instead of his career regular season numbers (big sample sizes), they would have likely lost their opening series in 2004 and 2005 - and thus not made the NLCS and World Series.

[Arnold Layne]

This whole argument comes down to whether you think a guy with a sub .300 OBP should bat leadoff. If you think that a sub .300 OBP at leadoff is a good recipe for playoff wins, then by all means enjoy Alf at #1.

[17 Seconds]

you act like soriano is regularly under .300 or something. he is awful right now, but i dont think anybody here thinks he should still be leading off right now.

[Rob]

This whole argument comes down to whether you think a guy with a sub .300 OBP should bat leadoff. If you think that a sub .300 OBP at leadoff is a good recipe for playoff wins, then by all means enjoy Alf at #1.

 

That's stupid. A guy with a sub .300 OBP... what guy? Corey Patterson? Neifi? Shawon Dunston? Dave Kingman? And what timeframe are we looking at to determine his OBP? Previous playoff series? The last month? The whole season? Who is getting the extra plate appearances at the top of the order if not Soriano? Fukudome? Theriot? Fontenot? Blanco?

 

The simple fact is this... there are far too many variables in play to attempt to make the kind of statement you're trying to. You're trying to frame the argument in an absurd manner for one of two reasons... either you really are just so dumb you think it's a valid way to make an argument, or simply to stroke your epeen. Either way... you're losing. Cut it out.

[dew1679666265]

This whole argument comes down to whether you think a guy with a sub .300 OBP should bat leadoff. If you think that a sub .300 OBP at leadoff is a good recipe for playoff wins, then by all means enjoy Alf at #1.

 

No, the argument comes down to what stats you use to evaluate a player. Do you use 170 playoff ABs as a more accurate indicator of what they can do or do you use 5,260 regular season ABs as a more accurate indicator. I choose to use the more than 5,000 at bats as an indicator of what Soriano is capable of and not 170 sporadic at bats spread out in 15 AB segments across the past 7 years.

 

Can you explain why 100 at bats is a good indicator of a player's true talent level? Moreso than 5,000 at bats?

[inari]

I would also more than happily bat Vlad Guerrero anywhere in the top 3 spots of the lineup in the playoffs. Bad postseason numbers or not - it's too small a sample size to make any type of evaluation on it.

 

I think +100 is a reasonable although not ideal indicator of post season ability. Some guys are cut out for the pressure, some are not.

 

The argument you're making here, though, it seems, is that because a Vlad Guerrero or a Mike Piazza doesn't have good postseason numbers, he shouldn't bat at the top of the order. Am I misrepresenting you?

 

I'm saying they should not be batting leadoff.

 

So, the Astros shouldn't have batted Biggio lead-off in all of those postseasons?

 

They were also a bad post season team.

 

At this point, I think everyone has to back off. This guy is not going to be persuaded by logic or rationale thought. Just let him be.

[Arnold Layne]

This whole argument comes down to whether you think a guy with a sub .300 OBP should bat leadoff. If you think that a sub .300 OBP at leadoff is a good recipe for playoff wins, then by all means enjoy Alf at #1.

 

That's stupid. A guy with a sub .300 OBP... what guy? Corey Patterson? Neifi? Shawon Dunston? Dave Kingman?

 

 

Alfonso Soriano.

 

 

And what timeframe are we looking at to determine his OBP? Previous playoff series? The last month? The whole season? Who is getting the extra plate appearances at the top of the order if not Soriano? Fukudome? Theriot? Fontenot? Blanco?

 

How about his lifetime OBP of .326 for starters? How about his playoff OBP of .263 in 170 AB?

 

If you want that OBP # for leadoff, enjoy. Most sane people would not, whether post or regular season.

[Arnold Layne]

No, the argument comes down to what stats you use to evaluate a player. Do you use 170 playoff ABs as a more accurate indicator of what they can do or do you use 5,260 regular season ABs as a more accurate indicator. I choose to use the more than 5,000 at bats as an indicator of what Soriano is capable of and not 170 sporadic at bats spread out in 15 AB segments across the past 7 years.

 

 

 

Can you explain why 100 at bats is a good indicator of a player's true talent level? Moreso than 5,000 at bats?

 

 

Maybe I wasn't clear - I feel that over 100 AB is reasonable but not ideal for post season performance predictors. The post season in baseball means better competition, better pitching and a external set of factors such as higher pressure and colder weather. Most players do not get a lot of AB's in the post season. With that said, 100 AB is a reasonable, although not ideal number to go by. It's not just a "crapshoot" as some would like to believe. Some players just do better in the post season than others.

 

As for the regular season, we can easily predict expected performance based on a long line of numbers. The post season is much harder, but there are numbers we can use to formulate at least some idea of performance. For example, it's almost a fact that Soriano has horrible OBP in the post season and is wasted in the leadoff spot.

Edited July 9, 2009 by Arnold Layne

[SouthSideRyan]

Some players just do better in the post season than others.

 

Please let me know who is a good bet to perform better in the playoffs this year.

[dew1679666265]

How about his lifetime OBP of .326 for starters? How about his playoff OBP of .263 in 170 AB?

 

If you want that OBP # for leadoff, enjoy. Most sane people would not, whether post or regular season.

 

OBP is not the only number of importance for a leadoff hitter, though. It's very important, but a guy batting in the first spot in the lineup only leads off an inning maybe a couple times a game - max. The idea is to get your best hitters as high in the lineup as is possible. The difference in number of at bats over the course of a season between the leadoff hitter and the #6 hitter, for instance, is in the hundreds of ABs. Lineup construction should be more about getting your best hitters as high in the lineup as possible because that is going to benefit you over the course of entire games.

 

When Soriano is doing well, I wouldn't be opposed to moving him down a bit in the lineup (no lower than top 3-4 spots, though). But, we would have to replace him with someone who is good enough to make good use of those extra 100-150 ABs over the course of a season. Not just someone who fits the traditional idea of a leadoff hitter - because he's only going to be in that position a couple times a game tops.

 

Leading off a game with a home run is not a bad thing and if a team has even decent hitters in the 7-8 spots in the lineup, that leadoff hitter with power is going to bat with men on base nearly as often as he leads off a game.

[Arnold Layne]

Some players just do better in the post season than others.

 

Please let me know who is a good bet to perform better in the playoffs this year.

 

 

It's not always about performing "better", but just being able to play as well in the post season as you do in the regular season, a level of consistency under the big lights:

 

Mariano Rivera. Manny Ramirez. Josh Becket. Derek Jeter. David Ortiz. Kevin Youkilis.

[Arnold Layne]

OBP is not the only number of importance for a leadoff hitter, though. It's very important, but a guy batting in the first spot in the lineup only leads off an inning maybe a couple times a game - max. The idea is to get your best hitters as high in the lineup as is possible. The difference in number of at bats over the course of a season between the leadoff hitter and the #6 hitter, for instance, is in the hundreds of ABs. Lineup construction should be more about getting your best hitters as high in the lineup as possible because that is going to benefit you over the course of entire games.

 

Right. Get your most consistent hitters at the top. That is not Soriano. He's way too streaky to be batting in that spot, with too low of an OBP. There's also the importance of making a starting pitcher work a bit more, etc. That's not Soriano either.

 

 

When Soriano is doing well, I wouldn't be opposed to moving him down a bit in the lineup (no lower than top 3-4 spots, though). But, we would have to replace him with someone who is good enough to make good use of those extra 100-150 ABs over the course of a season. Not just someone who fits the traditional idea of a leadoff hitter - because he's only going to be in that position a couple times a game tops.

 

I don't think it's any coincidence that the Cubs had the best post season success with a traditional leadoff hitter in 2003(of course Wood and Prior were the main reason). Lofton was someone who had smart at bats, hitting the ball to all fields.

 

I think a consistent bat is important for the 1 hole, and in the playoffs when you are in these 1 run deathmatches, having someone with a brain getting the most at bats is a good thing. Soriano plays dumb baseball, and he sets that meme from the very beginning of every Cubs game.

[Sammy Sofa]

I don't think it's any coincidence that the Cubs had the best post season success with a traditional leadoff hitter in 2003(of course Wood and Prior were the main reason). Lofton was someone who had smart at bats, hitting the ball to all fields.

 

I think a consistent bat is important for the 1 hole, and in the playoffs when you are in these 1 run deathmatches, having someone with a brain getting the most at bats is a good thing. Soriano plays dumb baseball, and he sets that meme from the very beginning of every Cubs game.

 

The leadoff hitter doesn't control the rest of the team, good or bad.

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't think it's any coincidence that the Cubs had the best post season success with a traditional leadoff hitter in 2003(of course Wood and Prior were the main reason). Lofton was someone who had smart at bats, hitting the ball to all fields.

 

Tripe.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't think it's any coincidence that the Cubs had the best post season success with a traditional leadoff hitter in 2003(of course Wood and Prior were the main reason). Lofton was someone who had smart at bats, hitting the ball to all fields.

 

I think a consistent bat is important for the 1 hole, and in the playoffs when you are in these 1 run deathmatches, having someone with a brain getting the most at bats is a good thing. Soriano plays dumb baseball, and he sets that meme from the very beginning of every Cubs game.

 

1) The Cubs played only two one-run games out of 12 games in that playoff season. (and none in their six playoff games since then)

 

2) The Cubs hitting 15 home runs in 12 games had a lot more to do with their offense than Lofton, who wasn't bad in the playoffs but was nothing special.

[dew1679666265]

Maybe I wasn't clear - I feel that over 100 AB is reasonable but not ideal for post season performance predictors. The post season in baseball means better competition, better pitching and a external set of factors such as higher pressure and colder weather. Most players do not get a lot of AB's in the post season. With that said, 100 AB is a reasonable, although not ideal number to go by. It's not just a "crapshoot" as some would like to believe. Some players just do better in the post season than others.

 

The biggest problem with using postseason ABs to try to predict anything is that the overall numbers can change so easily. I've mentioned before that Soriano, by having 10-15 good at bats in the postseason, could raise his overall numbers by 20-30 points. That's quite an improvement from a tiny number of at bats.

 

Also, when you say that certain players (like Soriano) can't handle postseason pressure and can't hit good pitching, how do you explain that Soriano has had an 1.126 OPS in a postseason series (ALCS) and a .789 OPS in another postseason series (ALDS)? A couple more postseason series like that and he could have nearly respectable numbers for his postseason career. Numbers vary way too much over 100 ABs to use them as any kind of an indicator.

 

As for the regular season, we can easily predict expected performance based on a long line of numbers. The psot season is much harder, but there are numbers we can use to formulate at least some idea of performance. For example, it's almost a fact that Soriano has horrible OBP in the post season and is wasted in the leadoff spot.

 

He's not wasted at the top of the order (in any of the top 3-4 spots) if he slugs anything like he does in the regular season.