Lou: Fukudome Penciled in at 2-Spot in Linuep

[cubfan]

 

If the percentage exceeds the breakeven point, then there is no risk.

 

um...really? So the day he steals the base that puts him over the break even point, there's no longer any risk associated with future SB attempts and he should run at every opportunity? Is that really what you're saying or am I misunderstanding?

 

Um... yes. really. If the runner has amassed a SB% that exceeds the breakeven point by running at every single opportunity, then you continue to run him at every single opportunity. Or, if you prefer real life situations instead of impossible hypotheticals.... then if the runner has amassed a SB% that exceeds the breakeven point by running only in certain situations, then you continue to run him in those same certain situations. This goes to the definition of what a "breakeven point" is. There will be times when the runner is thrown out, and runs are not scored that might have otherwise. They will be outweighed by the times that the runner is successful and runs will be scored that otherwise would not be realized.

 

If the percentage exceeds the breakeven point, then there is no risk. Math isn't that hard. Don't try to make so.

 

Over the course of a year it would work out to be no risk at the breakeven point but it would add some volitility. Would your rather have a player that went 1 for 3 every day or a player that would hit 3 for 3 one day then go 0-3 the next two? I'm not saying one is better than the other and is probably not the best example but I could see how the volitility could be viewed as a risk of the course of one game.

[Tracer Bullet]

 

If the percentage exceeds the breakeven point, then there is no risk.

 

um...really? So the day he steals the base that puts him over the break even point, there's no longer any risk associated with future SB attempts and he should run at every opportunity? Is that really what you're saying or am I misunderstanding?

 

Um... yes. really. If the runner has amassed a SB% that exceeds the breakeven point by running at every single opportunity, then you continue to run him at every single opportunity. Or, if you prefer real life situations instead of impossible hypotheticals.... then if the runner has amassed a SB% that exceeds the breakeven point by running only in certain situations, then you continue to run him in those same certain situations. This goes to the definition of what a "breakeven point" is. There will be times when the runner is thrown out, and runs are not scored that might have otherwise. They will be outweighed by the times that the runner is successful and runs will be scored that otherwise would not be realized.

 

If the percentage exceeds the breakeven point, then there is no risk. Math isn't that hard. Don't try to make so.

 

Yikes. ok.

 

In order to determine whether a runner has hit the 75% point, do we use career stats? Just ML career? the last season?

[cubbinalltheway]

In order to determine whether a runner has hit the 75% point, do we use career stats? Just ML career? the last season?

i would say it depends on the player.

[abuck1220]

 

If the percentage exceeds the breakeven point, then there is no risk.

 

um...really? So the day he steals the base that puts him over the break even point, there's no longer any risk associated with future SB attempts and he should run at every opportunity? Is that really what you're saying or am I misunderstanding?

 

Um... yes. really. If the runner has amassed a SB% that exceeds the breakeven point by running at every single opportunity, then you continue to run him at every single opportunity. Or, if you prefer real life situations instead of impossible hypotheticals.... then if the runner has amassed a SB% that exceeds the breakeven point by running only in certain situations, then you continue to run him in those same certain situations. This goes to the definition of what a "breakeven point" is. There will be times when the runner is thrown out, and runs are not scored that might have otherwise. They will be outweighed by the times that the runner is successful and runs will be scored that otherwise would not be realized.

 

If the percentage exceeds the breakeven point, then there is no risk. Math isn't that hard. Don't try to make so.

 

Yikes. ok.

 

In order to determine whether a runner has hit the 75% point, do we use career stats? Just ML career? the last season?

 

truffle gets to decide.

[blangen]

Kinda off topic, but does anyone know if Fukudome's family moved to the United States? Or if they are planning to?

[chi city]

good to see the frustrations with Fukudome's postseason play not trickling into his placement here. i think he's going to come back into form. one of the few instances where i'm cool with a player playing in the WBC too.

[laurens]

Kinda off topic, but does anyone know if Fukudome's family moved to the United States? Or if they are planning to?

 

I saw pictures of him playing with his son before the AS game, and I've also seen pics of him with his family. I think they moved to the US when he signed.

[tfarks]

Kinda off topic, but does anyone know if Fukudome's family moved to the United States? Or if they are planning to?

 

I saw pictures of him playing with his son before the AS game, and I've also seen pics of him with his family. I think they moved to the US when he signed.

 

From what I recall there was a delay for some reason. So his family moved here like a month or so after he did.

[TruffleShuffle]

In order to determine whether a runner has hit the 75% point, do we use career stats? Just ML career? the last season?

 

tango put the number at 72.7%. if the guy has been healthy and in the big leagues for 2-3 years, it's probably best to use that time frame rather than 1 season or his entire career as a professional.

 

the thing that bothers me the most about the theriot hate is that there is a lot to admire about the guy. for most of his minor league career he was regarded as someone who would likely not make an adequate utility player, let alone a starting shortstop. last year he cut way down on his FB% - which is a good idea given that he has no power and has pretty good speed - and saw more pitches, and drew more walks. he's not a great fielder by any means but he gets good reads on balls and makes accurate throws, so he's at least fashioned himself into a decent fielder. in fact, the only thing that he really DIDN'T improve last year was his baserunning, and certain people bitched constantly about that while ignoring all the things that he worked to improve.

 

given the cubs dearth of shortstop candidates and the need for cheap production from a couple of positions on the diamond, that people would appreciate a guy who with limited physical ability who turned himself into an average starting shortstop through intelligent adjustments to his game. especially since we had plenty of opportunities to see cedeno, a guy with better tools across the board, continue to flail at breaking balls out of the zone and make careless mistakes in the field. i guess some people were so down on him after 2007, or were such big supporters of cedeno, that they look for the inadequacies of theriot's game rather than viewing him as a guy who maximizes his ability where so many other guys fail to do so.

[jersey cubs fan]

the thing that bothers me the most about the theriot hate is that there is a lot to admire about the guy. for most of his minor league career he was regarded as someone who would likely not make an adequate utility player, let

 

He was regarded by many, including me, and I believe Tim, has a really good option for utlity player.

 

A good deal of the Theriot hate dates to his 2007 season when he was absolutely horrible and a significant factor in the Cubs getting bottom of the barrel production from shortstop. And for a guy with so little production, he doesn't even "do the little things right" - namely, defense and baserunning. He was better in 2008, but he's still not a standout in any form. Given his low salary, he's fine for now. But they better not plan on keeping him around once he starts making money.

 

 

 

Also, the shirts he wears in clubhouse interviews, you can just tell he's a douche in real life.

[David]

I think the whole team wears those damn affliction shirts. We love a team full of d-bags.

[Bull]

In order to determine whether a runner has hit the 75% point, do we use career stats? Just ML career? the last season?

 

tango put the number at 72.7%. if the guy has been healthy and in the big leagues for 2-3 years, it's probably best to use that time frame rather than 1 season or his entire career as a professional.

 

the thing that bothers me the most about the theriot hate is that there is a lot to admire about the guy. for most of his minor league career he was regarded as someone who would likely not make an adequate utility player, let alone a starting shortstop. last year he cut way down on his FB% - which is a good idea given that he has no power and has pretty good speed - and saw more pitches, and drew more walks. he's not a great fielder by any means but he gets good reads on balls and makes accurate throws, so he's at least fashioned himself into a decent fielder. in fact, the only thing that he really DIDN'T improve last year was his baserunning, and certain people bitched constantly about that while ignoring all the things that he worked to improve.

 

given the cubs dearth of shortstop candidates and the need for cheap production from a couple of positions on the diamond, that people would appreciate a guy who with limited physical ability who turned himself into an average starting shortstop through intelligent adjustments to his game. especially since we had plenty of opportunities to see cedeno, a guy with better tools across the board, continue to flail at breaking balls out of the zone and make careless mistakes in the field. i guess some people were so down on him after 2007, or were such big supporters of cedeno, that they look for the inadequacies of theriot's game rather than viewing him as a guy who maximizes his ability where so many other guys fail to do so.

 

Now that we're completely off topic: I admire that Theriot has maximized his ability. That's almost the point here. He's reached his ceiling and he's still not good. There's no amount of hard work, effort, grit, doing things the right way, or any thing else that can improve his talent level.

 

Not blaming him or bashing him, but he is what he is.

[cubbinalltheway]

Now that we're completely off topic: I admire that Theriot has maximized his ability. That's almost the point here. He's reached his ceiling and he's still not good. There's no amount of hard work, effort, grit, doing things the right way, or any thing else that can improve his talent level.

 

Not blaming him or bashing him, but he is what he is.

that's just 100% not true.

[David]

Now that we're completely off topic: I admire that Theriot has maximized his ability. That's almost the point here. He's reached his ceiling and he's still not good. There's no amount of hard work, effort, grit, doing things the right way, or any thing else that can improve his talent level.

 

Not blaming him or bashing him, but he is what he is.

that's just 100% not true.

 

Which part of it? The definition of "good" is subjective, I suppose. I'd probably say he's good, but not all that good. He's good for the amount of money he makes, I guess. It depends on what you expect from him going forward, too. I don't really see him OBPing .400 again, but who knows?

 

As far as the ceiling part goes, how much further can he possibly take his game than he already has? How much more can he get out of his relatively limited abilities?

[cubbinalltheway]

Now that we're completely off topic: I admire that Theriot has maximized his ability. That's almost the point here. He's reached his ceiling and he's still not good. There's no amount of hard work, effort, grit, doing things the right way, or any thing else that can improve his talent level.

 

Not blaming him or bashing him, but he is what he is.

that's just 100% not true.

 

Which part of it? The definition of "good" is subjective, I suppose. I'd probably say he's good, but not all that good. He's good for the amount of money he makes, I guess. As far as the ceiling part goes, how much further can he possibly take his game than he already has? How much more can he get out of his relatively limited abilities?

i was referring to the "he's still not good" part of it. i consider the guy who lead the best offensive team in the nl last year in obp to be "good". but it's not out of the realm of possibility for him to actually improve. he's 29 and entering his 3rd full season. i don't get why his 2nd full year is automatically his best that he'll have.

[David]

I think the reason people think that is because he's 29 and doesn't appear to have a whole lot more physical ability/talent to build more on.

[CubColtPacer]

Now that we're completely off topic: I admire that Theriot has maximized his ability. That's almost the point here. He's reached his ceiling and he's still not good. There's no amount of hard work, effort, grit, doing things the right way, or any thing else that can improve his talent level.

 

Not blaming him or bashing him, but he is what he is.

that's just 100% not true.

 

Which part of it? The definition of "good" is subjective, I suppose. I'd probably say he's good, but not all that good. He's good for the amount of money he makes, I guess. As far as the ceiling part goes, how much further can he possibly take his game than he already has? How much more can he get out of his relatively limited abilities?

i was referring to the "he's still not good" part of it. i consider the guy who

 

lead the best offensive team in the nl last year in obp to be "good". but it's not out of the realm of possibility for him to actually improve. he's 29 and entering his 3rd full season. i don't get why his 2nd full year is automatically his best that he'll have.

 

It's more because to improve Theriot would have to fundamentally change some part of his game. He hit .307 last year. That's getting close to the limit of what any hitter can do consistently, and especially one where the outfielders can cheat in slightly for. There's not much more chance for him to get more singles than he already is.

 

He had an ISOD of .8 last year which is above average. And he did that by being very consistently patient on balls outside the zone. He can't really improve his walk rate much more because pitchers throw him so many strikes.

 

His ISOP is the one thing that could possibly be improved. But to do so, Theriot would have to become more of a gap hitter to get those doubles and triples. And his swing style (in which he modified before 08 to help his low line drive ability) doesn't allow him to hit those gaps very often right now. So unless he wants to completely change his swing and possibly lose his ability to get singles, his power isn't going to skyrocket.

 

So really the only things Theriot can improve in are defense and baserunning. Since his problems in defense are mostly talent based (lack of rage and below average arm) and not instinct based (good reaction time, good fundamentals catching) that makes defense hard to improve. Baserunning however could be improved with a little better of instincts and being a little more judicial on the basepaths.

 

Most ballplayers have a path to improve because of a lack of consistency. Theriot's very consistent and so his improvement would have to come from a change in swing that would increase his power potential. And that's much harder to do than simply get a little more consistent as other players have to do.

[CUBZ99]

I think the reason people think that is because he's 29 and doesn't appear to have a whole lot more physical ability/talent to build more on.

 

What more does he need to build on? Theriot is cheap and gives you above average offensive production at SS. Plus the Cubs haven't necessarily been adept at developing quality middle infield prospects. On a team filled with big contracts, I think Theriot is a nice little player to have.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think the reason people think that is because he's 29 and doesn't appear to have a whole lot more physical ability/talent to build more on.

 

What more does he need to build on? Theriot is cheap and gives you above average offensive production at SS. Plus the Cubs haven't necessarily been adept at developing quality middle infield prospects. On a team filled with big contracts, I think Theriot is a nice little player to have.

 

He won't be cheap for long and may not give you above average offensive production at SS for long. He may have in 2008, but he didn't in 2007. And at 29 we've probably already seen his best. Middle infielders generally don't age gracefully.

 

He's fine for now, but this very well could/should be his last year as the Cubs starting SS. If his numbers look more like 2007 than 2008, he absolutely has to go.

[TruffleShuffle]

His ISOP is the one thing that could possibly be improved. But to do so, Theriot would have to become more of a gap hitter to get those doubles and triples. And his swing style (in which he modified before 08 to help his low line drive ability) doesn't allow him to hit those gaps very often right now. So unless he wants to completely change his swing and possibly lose his ability to get singles, his power isn't going to skyrocket.

 

yeah your whole whole post is right on the money. the only way he will increase his IsoP is to go back to hitting more fly balls, but as we saw last year, he does better if he focuses on hitting line drives and hard ground balls rather than putting some loft in his swing. he had a higher IsoP in 2007 than 2008, hitting 11 more XBH's, but clearly that approach comes with a hit to his BABIP and it's not worth the extra power to go away from the slap-hitting that he did last season.

 

that being said, i don't really like saying that he's not good. he was probably league-average for a starting shortstop last year, defensively and offensively, which is a lot better than the replacement-level crap the cubs put up with in 2006 and 2007.

[biittner77]

that being said, i don't really like saying that he's not good. he was probably league-average for a starting shortstop last year, defensively and offensively, which is a lot better than the replacement-level crap the cubs put up with in 2006 and 2007.

 

Wasn't Theriot the starting SS in 2007?

[17 Seconds]

I think the reason people think that is because he's 29 and doesn't appear to have a whole lot more physical ability/talent to build more on.

 

What more does he need to build on? Theriot is cheap and gives you above average offensive production at SS. .

 

Defense. Theriot might give you slightly above average offense for the shortstop position, but well below average defense.

[CUBZ99]

I think the reason people think that is because he's 29 and doesn't appear to have a whole lot more physical ability/talent to build more on.

 

What more does he need to build on? Theriot is cheap and gives you above average offensive production at SS. Plus the Cubs haven't necessarily been adept at developing quality middle infield prospects. On a team filled with big contracts, I think Theriot is a nice little player to have.

 

He won't be cheap for long and may not give you above average offensive production at SS for long. He may have in 2008, but he didn't in 2007. And at 29 we've probably already seen his best. Middle infielders generally don't age gracefully.

 

He's fine for now, but this very well could/should be his last year as the Cubs starting SS. If his numbers look more like 2007 than 2008, he absolutely has to go.

 

Don't get me wrong, I am not advocating him as a permanent solution at SS (barring some unexpected increase in production and range), but currently he is a good option for the team and not one of the problem spots. I would be thrilled if Theriot could put up a .350+ OBP this year at the bottom of the order.

[jersey cubs fan]

Don't get me wrong, I am not advocating him as a permanent solution at SS (barring some unexpected increase in production and range), but currently he is a good option for the team and not one of the problem spots. I would be thrilled if Theriot could put up a .350+ OBP this year at the bottom of the order.

 

If his OBP dips to just .350, he's moving back into hurting the team level. His only skill is OBP, and it has to be very good for him to hold any value. He was a huge problem spot in 2007. In 2008 he wasn't. But we don't know what he'll be in 2009, he could very easily slip back to that level.

[sneakypower]

theriot had more BB than utley last year

 

i just don't get pitchers