2009 NCAA Tournament Mock Selection Committee

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yeah, I don't think WVU is a lock. They're only a half step above Providence, and I don't think Providence is even in the field.

 

20-9 while playing one of the hardest schedules in the country should be a lock.

 

What if they're 21-11 after a first game loss to Providence in the tournament next week? Or worse, they drop that game to DePaul? They'll likely be 1-7 against the Top 25 and 4-8 against the Top 50 going into the Big East tournament. I'm probably just more conservative than most, but to me a lock has to be able to lose the rest of their games and still get in. I don't think WVU can do that, or even be 100% safe at 21-11 considering they have 2 wins to hang their hat on for the whole season.

[ISUCubsFan]

Yeah, I don't think WVU is a lock. They're only a half step above Providence, and I don't think Providence is even in the field.

 

20-9 while playing one of the hardest schedules in the country should be a lock.

 

What if they're 21-11 after a first game loss to Providence in the tournament next week? Or worse, they drop that game to DePaul? They'll likely be 1-7 against the Top 25 and 4-8 against the Top 50 going into the Big East tournament. I'm probably just more conservative than most, but to me a lock has to be able to lose the rest of their games and still get in. I don't think WVU can do that, or even be 100% safe at 21-11 considering they have 2 wins to hang their hat on for the whole season.

 

If they lose to DePaul at home tonight it might be another story, but barring that I don't see WVU falling out at 21-11. Their worst loss would be Davidson on a neutral floor, which isn't terrible at all, and they'd still have wins @Ohio State, @Gtown, and vs Providence, Villanova, and Notre Dame. They also have a bunch of OOC wins against above average teams. If they lose right away in the tourney they'd still be 9-8 in road/neutral games. I could see them falling to a 10 seed in that scenario, but I can't see them falling out if they have 9 to 11 wins against the top 100 and no losses outside of it.

 

As for the other teams SSR mentioned, Xavier has neutral court wins vs Missouri, VT, and Memphis, and won at LSU, Rhode Island, and Cincy. Home wins vs Auburn and Temple don't hurt either. They still have time to damage their seed, but I don't see them falling out with those wins. Butler has a worse resume, but I think they're solidly in as of right now. They're already in their tourney, so if you don't think a home loss vs Milwaukee (worst case) puts them out you can lock them. Utah could go either way for me as far as being a lock.

[Exile on Waveland]

Locks*:

 

ACC -- (5): North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State.

Big East -- (7): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia.

Big Ten -- (3): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue.

Big 12 -- (4): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and likely Texas.

Pac 10 -- (3/4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona State and likely Cal.

SEC -- (1/2): LSU and likely Tennessee.

MWC -- (2): Utah, BYU.

CUSA -- (1): Memphis.

A-10 -- (1): Xavier.

Horizon -- (1): Butler.

WCC -- (1): Gonzaga.

 

I've got 29 locks and two more likely. Other teams that I believe are in decent shape include Boston College, Wisconsin, South Carolina, UNLV, and Dayton. Maybe a couple others. I'd be nervous if I was anyone else. (Hope I didn't overlook anyone.)

 

*I'm going to define "lock" as a team that is in barring epic collapse. I'm not interested in debating doomsday results, and will assume UConn is going to beat NJIT or whomever.

[TruffleShuffle]

Yeah, I don't think WVU is a lock. They're only a half step above Providence, and I don't think Providence is even in the field.

 

20-9 while playing one of the hardest schedules in the country should be a lock.

 

What if they're 21-11 after a first game loss to Providence in the tournament next week? Or worse, they drop that game to DePaul? They'll likely be 1-7 against the Top 25 and 4-8 against the Top 50 going into the Big East tournament. I'm probably just more conservative than most, but to me a lock has to be able to lose the rest of their games and still get in. I don't think WVU can do that, or even be 100% safe at 21-11 considering they have 2 wins to hang their hat on for the whole season.

 

nobody has lost to depaul, even rutgers... wvu isn't going to do so at home.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah, I don't think WVU is a lock. They're only a half step above Providence, and I don't think Providence is even in the field.

 

20-9 while playing one of the hardest schedules in the country should be a lock.

 

What if they're 21-11 after a first game loss to Providence in the tournament next week? Or worse, they drop that game to DePaul? They'll likely be 1-7 against the Top 25 and 4-8 against the Top 50 going into the Big East tournament. I'm probably just more conservative than most, but to me a lock has to be able to lose the rest of their games and still get in. I don't think WVU can do that, or even be 100% safe at 21-11 considering they have 2 wins to hang their hat on for the whole season.

 

nobody has lost to depaul, even rutgers... wvu isn't going to do so at home.

 

They only lost by 2 to a better team last week.

[TruffleShuffle]

Yeah, I don't think WVU is a lock. They're only a half step above Providence, and I don't think Providence is even in the field.

 

20-9 while playing one of the hardest schedules in the country should be a lock.

 

What if they're 21-11 after a first game loss to Providence in the tournament next week? Or worse, they drop that game to DePaul? They'll likely be 1-7 against the Top 25 and 4-8 against the Top 50 going into the Big East tournament. I'm probably just more conservative than most, but to me a lock has to be able to lose the rest of their games and still get in. I don't think WVU can do that, or even be 100% safe at 21-11 considering they have 2 wins to hang their hat on for the whole season.

 

nobody has lost to depaul, even rutgers... wvu isn't going to do so at home.

 

They only lost by 2 to a better team last week.

 

at home.

 

pomeroy gives depaul a 1% chance of winning at west virginia. if we're going to assume that 99% is not a gimme then there are like 10 or 15 teams that are a lock.

[bukie]

After an opening Champ week night of 12 games and just one seed upset (in the Horizon...but Butler gets a double bye there so they don't play until Saturday anyway), the Atlantic Sun, Patriot, and Sun Belt leagues get their conference tournaments started tonight.

 

Also, in the one league that doesn't have a tournament, the Ivy championship is going to come down to the last weekend, with Cornell one game up on Princeton, while Cornell hosts Princeton Saturday.

[bukie]

Also, even if someone is initially in "Lock" status, if something absurd does happen to a lock that would/should alter their consideration (say, WVU loses at home to DePaul while losing their best 2 players to injury for the rest of the year, and then loses to DePaul again in the BE Tourney), we could always discuss and remove them later.

[CubbieBum]

C-USA: Memphis

Big Ten: Michigan St., Purdue, Illinois

Big East: UCONN, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia

Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas

Pac-10: Washington, UCLA, Arizona St., California

SEC: Tennessee, LSU

ACC: North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida St.,

WCC: Gonzaga

MWC: Utah, BYU

A10: Xavier

 

 

I have 30 right now with a couple teams having a chance to lock up with one or two more wins.

[mul21]

ACC -- (5): North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State.

Big East -- (7): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse.

Big Ten -- (4): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota

Big 12 -- (5): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, OSU, Texas.

Pac 10 -- (4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, Cal.

SEC -- (2): LSU, South Carolina

MWC -- (1): BYU.

CUSA -- (2): Memphis, UAB.

A-10 -- (1): Xavier.

Horizon -- (1): Butler.

WCC - (1): Gonzaga.

MVC- (1): Creighton.

 

That's 34 which should leave a couple open assuming some of these teams win their conference tournaments.

 

Exile, I stole your format because I'm lazy.

[CubbieBum]

ACC -- (5): North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State.

Big East -- (7): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse.

Big Ten -- (4): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota

Big 12 -- (5): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, OSU, Texas.

Pac 10 -- (4): Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, Cal.

SEC -- (2): LSU, South Carolina

MWC -- (1): BYU.

CUSA -- (2): Memphis, UAB.

A-10 -- (1): Xavier.

Horizon -- (1): Butler.

WCC - (1): Gonzaga.

MVC- (1): Creighton.

 

That's 34 which should leave a couple open assuming some of these teams win their conference tournaments.

 

Exile, I stole your format because I'm lazy.

 

How is Minnesota a lock. They are at .500 in conference with two to go. If they lose both they will finish 8-10 in the Big Ten. With a loss in the first game of the Big Ten Tourney that leaves them at 19-11, below .500 in the Big Ten, and 5-10 to finish. They are far from a lock. Wisconsin has a better conference record, higher RPI, much harder schedule and have played a lot better down the stretch. I would also put Ohio State over Minnesota considering their better conference record, higher RPI and better record versus 26-100 RPI teams.

[CubInOK]

I'm not completely sure I can lock LSU right now. Tonight's loss to Vandy at home was atrocious. They won't be favored @Auburn. If they drop their opener in the SEC tournament, do they get in?

[bukie]

I'm not completely sure I can lock LSU right now. Tonight's loss to Vandy at home was atrocious. They won't be favored @Auburn. If they drop their opener in the SEC tournament, do they get in?

Well, somebody has to. LSU has by far the best profile in the SEC, I think they're in no matter what happens here on out.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah, I'm an unabashed SEC hater, but I think you gotta keep LSU locked. Vandy's bad, but not terrible.

 

The rest of the SEC and ACC made this a lot more difficult though.

[bukie]

I happen to think the ACC is clearly the best conference this year, but mostly because there are zero bad teams and 3-4 really good teams (BE has 5 bad teams and 3-4 really good teams, BT has 1 bad team and 1 really good team, Pac-10 has 1 bad team and 0 really good teams, B12 has 3 bad teams and 2-3 really good teams, SEC has 14 bad teams and 0 really good teams). I don't really see a great middle team. If anything, I'd say VT or BC, but they're both crawling to the finish.

 

And I'm only kidding about the SEC, but honestly I see more deserving teams out of the MWC than the SEC this year.

[SouthSideRyan]

To clarify I'm a hater of the SEC in that I think the conference is terrible this year, not an irrational hater in that I'll punish them. That's only a football thing for me. Edited March 5, 2009 by SouthSideRyan

[bukie]

To clarify I'm a hater of the SEC in that I think the conference, not an irrational hater in that I'll punish them. That's only a football thing for me.

We all know that you're only going to irrationally punish Missouri. ;)

[CubInOK]

At this point I think the only team you can lock out of the SEC is Tennessee, and even worse is that I'm not sure that they're the best team in the conference.

 

South Carolina has a bad loss @ College of Charleston and no good wins. Their RPI is sagging a bit, too. The SOS is also pretty ugly. Tennessee goes to Charleston tomorrow, though. I think they can work their way up to an 8 seed if they win vs Tenn, @Georgia, and then a game or 2 in the SEC tourney.

Both of LSU's losses in conference are pretty ugly, @Alabama and Vandy at home. They did nothing out of conference (well, if you consider getting buried by 30 @Utah good). Their NC SOS is about as putrid as Penn State's and playing twice against Alabama, Auburn, Miss St, Ole Miss, and Arkansas didn't help their computer numbers at all.

[Vanilla Ice]

Locks

 

ACC -- (5): North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State.

Big East -- (7): UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia.

Big Ten -- (3): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue.

Big 12 -- (3): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri

Pac 10 -- (3): Washington, UCLA, Arizona State

SEC -- (1): LSU

CUSA -- (1): Memphis.

A-10 -- (1): Xavier.

Horizon -- (1): Butler.

WCC -- (1): Gonzaga.

 

26 locks

 

Convince me on BYU, Utah, Texas, and Tennessee.

[bukie]

Because I love these anonymous comparisons so much...

 

Team A: 18-10 record, 1-4 vs. the top 25, 4-5 vs. the top 50, no losses outside the top 100, 8-6 R/N record, 7-5 in the last 12, SOS 16

Team B: 17-11 record, 2-3 vs. the top 25, 6-8 vs. the top 50, no losses outside the top 100, 4-7 R/N record, 7-5 in the last 12, SOS 33

Team C: 20-7 record, 0-1 vs. the top 25, 1-4 vs. the top 50, 1 loss outside the top 100, 4-6 R/N record, 8-4 in the last 12, SOS 130

 

How would you rank them?

Edited March 5, 2009 by bukie

[Vanilla Ice]

B A

 

C

[Derwood]

I'll guess that Team B is Northwestern

[SouthSideRyan]

B-A-C

[SouthSideRyan]

Because I love these anonymous comparisons so much...

 

Team A: 18-10 record, 1-4 vs. the top 25, 4-5 vs. the top 50, no losses outside the top 100, 8-6 R/N record, 7-5 in the last 12, SOS 16

Team B: 17-11 record, 2-3 vs. the top 25, 6-8 vs. the top 50, no losses outside the top 100, 4-7 R/N record, 8-4 in the last 12, SOS 33

Team C: 20-7 record, 0-1 vs. the top 25, 1-4 vs. the top 50, 1 loss outside the top 100, 4-6 R/N record, 8-4 in the last 12, SOS 130

 

How would you rank them?

 

I'm showing Team B as 7-5 their last 12.

[bukie]

Because I love these anonymous comparisons so much...

 

Team A: 18-10 record, 1-4 vs. the top 25, 4-5 vs. the top 50, no losses outside the top 100, 8-6 R/N record, 7-5 in the last 12, SOS 16

Team B: 17-11 record, 2-3 vs. the top 25, 6-8 vs. the top 50, no losses outside the top 100, 4-7 R/N record, 7-5 in the last 12, SOS 33

Team C: 20-7 record, 0-1 vs. the top 25, 1-4 vs. the top 50, 1 loss outside the top 100, 4-6 R/N record, 8-4 in the last 12, SOS 130

 

How would you rank them?

 

I'm showing Team B as 7-5 their last 12.

Whoops, I miscounted the games (To do the last 12, I just count back 12 and count the losses...I counted the last game even though it wasn't played yet). Fixed it. Still, pretty amazing, no?