Who wants a Mark Prior update?

[wvcbxl]

On topic, what's the best Prior can realistically hope for this year?

 

To stay healthy?

[Tarver]

On topic, what's the best Prior can realistically hope for this year?

 

To stay healthy?

 

Even assuming health and serviceable performance

[wvcbxl]

On topic, what's the best Prior can realistically hope for this year?

 

To stay healthy?

 

Even assuming health and serviceable performance

 

Personally, I'm not prepared to go past that assuption (taking in to account the previous seasons).

The easiest way back for him would probably be a bullpen role for at least one season, but I doubt he's willing to go that route - for now.

[Soul]

On topic, what's the best Prior can realistically hope for this year?

 

To stay healthy?

 

Even assuming health and serviceable performance

 

Personally, I'm not prepared to go past that assuption (taking in to account the previous seasons).

The easiest way back for him would probably be a bullpen role for at least one season, but I doubt he's willing to go that route - for now.

 

You don't think he'd pitch out of the BP for year? I'm not so sure.

[NCCubFan]

On topic, what's the best Prior can realistically hope for this year?

 

To stay healthy?

 

Even assuming health and serviceable performance

 

Personally, I'm not prepared to go past that assuption (taking in to account the previous seasons).

The easiest way back for him would probably be a bullpen role for at least one season, but I doubt he's willing to go that route - for now.

 

You don't think he'd pitch out of the BP for year? I'm not so sure.

I think he would, especially if it's for a partial season after spending the first part of the season rehabbing. He may not want to become a reliever permanently, but I think he would for now while working his way back. And if he wants to get paid he'd really have no choice if that's what his team tells him to do.

[radarluv1]

On topic, what's the best Prior can realistically hope for this year?

 

To stay healthy?

 

Even assuming health and serviceable performance

 

Personally, I'm not prepared to go past that assuption (taking in to account the previous seasons).

The easiest way back for him would probably be a bullpen role for at least one season, but I doubt he's willing to go that route - for now.

 

You don't think he'd pitch out of the BP for year? I'm not so sure.

I think he would, especially if it's for a partial season after spending the first part of the season rehabbing. He may not want to become a reliever permanently, but I think he would for now while working his way back. And if he wants to get paid he'd really have no choice if that's what his team tells him to do.

he took a minor league deal, right? he'll do whatever gets him in the bigs.

[hardcorecubfan]

It's his life, but if someone close to me were to continually plug away at an endeavor in which the chance for success is becoming more and more remote, I'd hope I could find the strength to tap that person on the shoulder.

 

If he can't make it this year, what are his chances in 2010? At what point is he just living in the past?

 

so you're saying he should be a quitter?

 

Not a quitter but a realist.

 

He could take one more year off and test the waters of the private sector, continue to work out and then come into 2010 with a fresh approach

[NCCubFan]

It's his life, but if someone close to me were to continually plug away at an endeavor in which the chance for success is becoming more and more remote, I'd hope I could find the strength to tap that person on the shoulder.

 

If he can't make it this year, what are his chances in 2010? At what point is he just living in the past?

 

so you're saying he should be a quitter?

 

Not a quitter but a realist.

 

He could take one more year off and test the waters of the private sector, continue to work out and then come into 2010 with a fresh approach

Or he could realize that the Padres are paying him more than he'd make in the private sector (especially in the current economy) and continue trying as long as somebody feels he still has a chance and is willing to pay him.

 

I'll go with my option over yours.

[17 Seconds]

It's his life, but if someone close to me were to continually plug away at an endeavor in which the chance for success is becoming more and more remote, I'd hope I could find the strength to tap that person on the shoulder.

 

If he can't make it this year, what are his chances in 2010? At what point is he just living in the past?

 

so you're saying he should be a quitter?

 

Not a quitter but a realist.

 

He could take one more year off and test the waters of the private sector, continue to work out and then come into 2010 with a fresh approach

 

Mark Prior is 28 years old. He has a whole lifetime to explore other things if baseball doesn't end up working out. It would be stupid to NOT continue trying to come back for as long as possible.

[Post Count Padder]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-prior031109&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

 

Jeff Passan wrote an article on Prior.

[Clem Fandango]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-prior031109&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

 

Jeff Passan wrote an article on Prior.

 

That's a good read. Thanks for posting it

[erik316wttn]

That's a good article. I think the most telling of all is that pitch count stat over his last 9 starts in 2003. Dusty wrecked him. Period.

[Mephistopheles]

Meph: I'll take NSBB delusions for $400.

 

Alex: Answer, Dusty Baker wrecked Mark Prior with his pitch counts in his last three starts of 2003.

 

*buzz*

 

Alex: Meph,

 

Meph: What is not True?

 

Alex: Correct!

[Derwood]

okay

[erik316wttn]

Meph: I'll take NSBB delusions for $400.

 

Alex: Answer, Dusty Baker wrecked Mark Prior with his pitch counts in his last three starts of 2003.

 

*buzz*

 

Alex: Meph,

 

Meph: What is not True?

 

Alex: Correct!

 

I was quoting stats from the last 9 starts of 2003, not the last 3. Reading comprehension is your friend.

 

Look at some of those pitch counts. You can't tell me that didn't play a significant factor in his arm troubles. This is from the article...

 

In Prior’s last nine games, including three in the playoffs, he logged the following pitch counts: 131, 129, 109, 124, 131, 133, 132, 115, 119. House believes the overuse by Baker doomed Prior. Eight pitchers this decade have thrown 109 or more pitches in nine straight games, and half of them needed reconstructive arm surgery. The only other pitchers this decade to throw at least four 130-plus-pitch games in a season, let alone in two months, are Livan Hernandez and Randy Johnson.

Edited March 12, 2009 by erik316wttn

[Derwood]

Meph: I'll take NSBB delusions for $400.

 

Alex: Answer, Dusty Baker wrecked Mark Prior with his pitch counts in his last three starts of 2003.

 

*buzz*

 

Alex: Meph,

 

Meph: What is not True?

 

Alex: Correct!

 

I was quoting stats from the last 9 starts of 2003, not the last 3. Reading comprehension is your friend.

 

Look at some of those pitch counts. You can't tell me that didn't play a significant factor in his arm troubles.

 

But Meph said it didn't (with no data to back it up), so it must be true

[Mephistopheles]

In Prior’s last nine games, including three in the playoffs, he logged the following pitch counts: 131, 129, 109, 124, 131, 133, 132, 115, 119. House believes the overuse by Baker doomed Prior. Eight pitchers this decade have thrown 109 or more pitches in nine straight games, and half of them needed reconstructive arm surgery. The only other pitchers this decade to throw at least four 130-plus-pitch games in a season, let alone in two months, are Livan Hernandez and Randy Johnson.

 

The typical starting pitcher is expected to have at least 1 or 2 major arm surgeries at some point in their career. It's just a given. It doesn't matter if they throw 90 pitches a game or 140 pitches. Based on that, you'd say the likelihood of a pitcher having a major arm injury in a given season is say, 10%, as a rough indicator. Then over the course of say, five seasons, well by that time there's about a 50% chance they have an injury, as a rough indicator.

 

The stat this guy provided is useless and doesn't hold an ounce of statistical credibility. Period.

[erik316wttn]

In Prior’s last nine games, including three in the playoffs, he logged the following pitch counts: 131, 129, 109, 124, 131, 133, 132, 115, 119. House believes the overuse by Baker doomed Prior. Eight pitchers this decade have thrown 109 or more pitches in nine straight games, and half of them needed reconstructive arm surgery. The only other pitchers this decade to throw at least four 130-plus-pitch games in a season, let alone in two months, are Livan Hernandez and Randy Johnson.

 

The typical starting pitcher is expected to have at least 1 or 2 major arm surgeries at some point in their career. It's just a given. It doesn't matter if they throw 90 pitches a game or 140 pitches. Based on that, you'd say the likelihood of a pitcher having a major arm injury in a given season is say, 10%, as a rough indicator. Then over the course of say, five seasons, well by that time there's about a 50% chance they have an injury, as a rough indicator.

 

The stat this guy provided is useless and doesn't hold an ounce of statistical credibility. Period.

 

I think your math is off.

 

You estimate about a 10% likelihood in any given season for a pitcher to have an arm injury. Then after 5 years you say it's 50%. Really? Can you provide any sort of credible statistic that proves in the last, say, 10 years or so that 50% of all starting pitchers have had a major arm injury? By that math if they pitch for 10 years does it make it an absolute certainty that he'll have a major arm injury? I guess we'd better write Lilly off for this year then, because he debuted in 1999.

 

I'd be more willing to bet that any pitcher who has four 130+ pitch starts in any given season, and 9 straight starts of at least 109 pitches is at far greater risk for major arm injury than one who only pitches say 85-100 in 9 consecutive starts.

[Bote McBoteface]

If Dusty didn't ruin Prior's career, it certainly wasn't from lack of trying.

[Mephistopheles]

Let's take the pitchers with 30+ GS in 2003.

 

+-----------+-------------+------+
| namefirst | namelast    | GS   |
+-----------+-------------+------+
| Greg      | Maddux      |   36 |
| Roy       | Halladay    |   36 |
| Barry     | Zito        |   35 |
| Mark      | Buehrle     |   35 |
| John      | Thomson     |   35 |*
| Kevin     | Millwood    |   35 |*
| Russ      | Ortiz       |   34 |*
| Wayne     | Franklin    |   34 |#
| Ben       | Sheets      |   34 |*
| Esteban   | Loaiza      |   34 |*
| Bartolo   | Colon       |   34 |*
| Tomokazu  | Ohka        |   34 |
| Tim       | Hudson      |   34 |*
| Javier    | Vazquez     |   34 |
| Jamie     | Moyer       |   33 |
| Woody     | Williams    |   33 |*
| Mike      | Maroth      |   33 |
| Hideo     | Nomo        |   33 |#
| Roger     | Clemens     |   33 |
| Tim       | Wakefield   |   33 |
| John      | Lackey      |   33 |
| Brian     | Lawrence    |   33 |*
| Derek     | Lowe        |   33 |
| Randy     | Wolf        |   33 |
| Livan     | Hernandez   |   33 |
| Kyle      | Lohse       |   33 |
| Brad      | Radke       |   33 |*
| Steve     | Trachsel    |   33 |
| Andy      | Pettitte    |   33 |*
| Wade      | Miller      |   33 |*
| Freddy    | Garcia      |   33 |*
| Tom       | Glavine     |   32 |*
| Matt      | Clement     |   32 |*
| Joel      | Pineiro     |   32 |*
| Jake      | Peavy       |   32 |
| Brad      | Penny       |   32 |*
| Ramon     | Ortiz       |   32 |
| Jon       | Garland     |   32 |
| Ryan      | Franklin    |   32 |
| Brett     | Tomko       |   32 |
| Jason     | Jennings    |   32 |*
| Kevin     | Brown       |   32 |*
| Tim       | Redding     |   32 |*
| Gil       | Meche       |   32 |
| Nate      | Cornejo     |   32 |*
| Vicente   | Padilla     |   32 |*
| Brett     | Myers       |   32 |
| Carlos    | Zambrano    |   32 |
| Kerry     | Wood        |   32 |*
| Carl      | Pavano      |   32 |*
| Jason     | Johnson     |   32 |
| Darren    | Oliver      |   32 |
| Jarrod    | Washburn    |   32 |
| Darrell   | May         |   32 |
| Jae Weong | Seo         |   31 |
| Kenny     | Rogers      |   31 |*
| Jeriome   | Robertson   |   31 |
| Sidney    | Ponson      |   31 |*
| Cory      | Lidle       |   31 |
| Matt      | Kinney      |   31 |#
| Jeff      | Suppan      |   31 |
| Mike      | Mussina     |   31 |
| Mike      | Hampton     |   31 |*
| Ted       | Lilly       |   31 |
| Brian     | Anderson    |   31 |*
| Adam      | Eaton       |   31 |*
| Kip       | Wells       |   31 |*
| Mark      | Hendrickson |   30 |
| C.C.      | Sabathia    |   30 |
| John      | Burkett     |   30 |
| Elmer     | Dessens     |   30 |#
| Odalis    | Perez       |   30 |*
| David     | Wells       |   30 |
| Al        | Leiter      |   30 |*
| Mark      | Prior       |   30 |*
+-----------+-------------+------+

 

* denotes they missed significant time with an arm related injury (not all but most req'd surgery), # denotes they suck and really shouldn't count because they weren't going to be starters the entire time like Darren Oliver, or they retired right during or after.

 

There were 75 total

4 I DQ'd

33 had major arm injurys.

 

That's 46%. 50% was a ballpark figure. I'd say I was in the ballpark.

 

Disclaimer: There may be a few guys I missed in each direction. It's late and I am tired. Either way my 50% ballpark figure isn't completely out of line.

Edited March 13, 2009 by Mephistopheles

[Mephistopheles]

Really? Can you provide any sort of credible statistic that proves in the last, say, 10 years or so that 50% of all starting pitchers have had a major arm injury? By that math if they pitch for 10 years does it make it an absolute certainty that he'll have a major arm injury? I guess we'd better write Lilly off for this year then,

 

If you flip a coin and it's on heads nine times in a row, does that mean that that you're certainly going to flip it on tails the next time?

[abuck1220]

Meph: I'll take NSBB delusions for $400.

 

Alex: Answer, Dusty Baker wrecked Mark Prior with his pitch counts in his last three starts of 2003.

 

*buzz*

 

Alex: Meph,

 

Meph: What is not True?

 

Alex: Correct!

 

I was quoting stats from the last 9 starts of 2003, not the last 3. Reading comprehension is your friend.

 

Look at some of those pitch counts. You can't tell me that didn't play a significant factor in his arm troubles.

 

But Meph said it didn't (with no data to back it up), so it must be true

 

and he did it with really witty sarcasm (lol jeopardy, get it?).

[David]

Really? Can you provide any sort of credible statistic that proves in the last, say, 10 years or so that 50% of all starting pitchers have had a major arm injury? By that math if they pitch for 10 years does it make it an absolute certainty that he'll have a major arm injury? I guess we'd better write Lilly off for this year then,

 

If you flip a coin and it's on heads nine times in a row, does that mean that that you're certainly going to flip it on tails the next time?

 

I was about to use this exact example.

[RynoRules]

I agree with Meph on this - aside from pure speculation based largely on conventional wisdom, I've never seen proof that the string of games or any other is responsible for Prior's injury woes (or any other pitcher). Heck, you could just as easily blame Marcus Giles.

 

Now, I am not saying that allowing young guy to throw that many pitches that many games in a row is a great idea (particulalry if he hasn't built up to it). But to me this is a mostly about being lucky enough to avoid catastrophic injuries and having a body that heals itself at a far above average rate.

[jersey cubs fan]

I agree with Meph on this - aside from pure speculation based largely on conventional wisdom, I've never seen proof that the string of games or any other is responsible for Prior's injury woes (or any other pitcher). Heck, you could just as easily blame Marcus Giles.

 

I think it's rather ridiculous to dismiss the inordinately heavy workload and mistreatment of Prior simply because the evidence isn't conclusive. At his age, the amount of high pitch count games, back to back, and going back in after a shoulder injury, was bound to contribute to injury. It's not just three random games. It was something like a 20-game stretch of just ridiculous treatment.