Leadoff....Maybe not Soriano?

[E.J.]

I didn't see your thread, Banedon. I'm going to merge the one I just started with yours.

you saw it, admit it. you just wanted to try out your new powers

 

I'm actually having trouble doing what I want...so I'm really showing off my lack of mod powers.

 

Yeah, it's a little complicated to figure out the Mod powers in the beginning. Maybe we can have Raisin or Jon write up a full Mod guide. :good:

[Mephistopheles]

Who cares? Who cares if Soriano's batting leadoff or not. He's one of the better hitters on the team, so putting him near the front of the lineup isn't the worst idea. Derrek Lee is one of the better hitters on the team so putting him near the front of the lineup isn't the worst idea. Putting Aaron Miles at the top of the lineup is just dumb.

 

Personally, I'd go

 

1. Kosuke Fukudome, CF

2. Milton Bradley, RF

3. Derrek Lee, 1B

4. Aramis Ramirez, 3B

5. Alfonso Soriano, LF

6. Geovany Soto, C

7. Mike Fontenot, 2B

8. Ryan Theriot, SS

9. Pitcher

[imb]

fukudome opsd like 400 after april, he's going to have to prove he can hit before i'd feel good about handing him leadoff at bats

[Mephistopheles]

You do that. He can hit. Unless you of course think he can only BABIP .250 or so after years of BABIP-ing over .350 in Japan. Because he BABIP's .340 or so he's going to have an OBP pretty damn close to .400.

[The Other 15]

Who cares? Who cares if Soriano's batting leadoff or not. He's one of the better hitters on the team, so putting him near the front of the lineup isn't the worst idea. Derrek Lee is one of the better hitters on the team so putting him near the front of the lineup isn't the worst idea. Putting Aaron Miles at the top of the lineup is just dumb.

 

Personally, I'd go

 

1. Kosuke Fukudome, CF

2. Milton Bradley, RF

3. Derrek Lee, 1B

4. Aramis Ramirez, 3B

5. Alfonso Soriano, LF

6. Geovany Soto, C

7. Mike Fontenot, 2B

8. Ryan Theriot, SS

9. Pitcher

Why would you go L L R R R R L R P with Bradly in your lineup? Shouldn't he break up that succession of RH's in the middle of the order? I assume that was the primary reason for all of Hendrys tap dancing with the payroll this offseason.

[imb]

how sure of that are you on a scale of khalil to towels?

[soonercub]

Based on what they have displayed so far, I think Fontenot is a all around better hitter than Fukudome. Seems to have a lot more "pop" as well. I sure would want Fonty getting more at bats that Fukudome.

 

against righty vs. Lefty

Soriano Sori

Fonty Miles/Johnson/Theriot

ARam ARam

Bradley Bradley

DLee DLee

Soto Soto

Fukudome Miles/Johnson/Theriot

Theriot Miles/Johnson/Theriot

 

I will believe when I see it, but I don't think Lou moves Soriano any lower than 2, so just keep him at 1 hole. Remember when he was prepping for Roberts last year? Soriano was put in the 2 hole.

 

I also think Lou will keep DLee 3rd and ARam 5th. It should be a fun Spring, wish they would all be in camp so we could get a feel for what he will do.

[17 Seconds]

You do that. He can hit. Unless you of course think he can only BABIP .250 or so after years of BABIP-ing over .350 in Japan. Because he BABIP's .340 or so he's going to have an OBP pretty damn close to .400.

 

ahh the trusty babip. this just in, your babip is going to be low when you hit the ball softly every time up. i guess fukudome doesn't really suck, he was just unlucky that those 2 hoppers tothe shortstop didn't sneak over the fence

[Cubswin11]

I hope they go

 

vs. RHP

 

Theriot SS

Fontenot 2B

Ramirez 3B

Soriano LF

Bradley RF

Lee 1B

Soto C

Kosuke CF

 

vs. LHP

 

Theriot SS

Johnson CF

Ramirez 3B

Soriano LF

Bradley RF

Lee 1B

Soto C

Miles 2B

[Derwood]

You do that. He can hit. Unless you of course think he can only BABIP .250 or so after years of BABIP-ing over .350 in Japan. Because he BABIP's .340 or so he's going to have an OBP pretty damn close to .400.

 

ahh the trusty babip. this just in, your babip is going to be low when you hit the ball softly every time up. i guess fukudome doesn't really suck, he was just unlucky that those 2 hoppers tothe shortstop didn't sneak over the fence

 

so explain the difference in his numbers between Japan and the US then

[17 Seconds]

You do that. He can hit. Unless you of course think he can only BABIP .250 or so after years of BABIP-ing over .350 in Japan. Because he BABIP's .340 or so he's going to have an OBP pretty damn close to .400.

 

ahh the trusty babip. this just in, your babip is going to be low when you hit the ball softly every time up. i guess fukudome doesn't really suck, he was just unlucky that those 2 hoppers tothe shortstop didn't sneak over the fence

 

so explain the difference in his numbers between Japan and the US then

 

US pitchers are way better?

 

Look, Fukudome has a chance to actually be good, but penciling him in as the leadoff hitter and acting like he is for sure going to be good next year and that he was just unlucky last year is ridiculous.

[cubsfan26]

Piniella mentioned Aaron Miles, ...

 

Miles won't be playing everyday, and if he's leading off against LH pitching it won't be that horrible. Still it's not a good idea, and I doubt it will end up that way. I think Lou will try it out this spring, but when it's all said and done he will be leading off. Lou even said if the season started tomorrow, that Soriano is the leadoff hitter. Lou probably is just gonna try to see if he likes the line-up better with Soriano in the middle and someone else leading off.

[BigbadB]

What I like about Soriano leading off, besides that the better hitters should be getting more at bats than the crappy hitters, is that it spreads out the power bats a little bit, and instead of having to wait until you get to the #3 hitter to drive in a bottom of the order guy, you have Soriano coming to the plate.

 

How bad was it when the Cubs had crappy 7-8 hitters, and then the pitcher and then Corey Patterson and Neifi Perez hitting 1-2? Ugh!

 

The Cubs already have plenty of power in the heart of the order, and enough of them are RH'd, so Soriano is just overkill. By having him hit at the top, he can continue scoring runs at a rate that is as good as the best lead off hitters throughout the league. And he gets more opportunities to drive in guys who get on base at the bottom of the order. Aaron Miles sure won't be doing that.

[Illini Iceman]

I like the following against RH:

 

Soriano

Fontenot

Lee

Ramirez

Bradley

Soto

Fukudome

Theriot

 

and the following against LH:

 

Soriano

Theriot

Lee

Ramirez

Bradley

Soto

Johnson

Miles

[17 Seconds]

I like the following against RH:

 

Soriano

Fontenot

Lee

Ramirez

Bradley

Soto

Fukudome

Theriot

 

and the following against LH:

 

Soriano

Theriot

Lee

Ramirez

Bradley

Soto

Johnson

Miles

 

Yeah those are the two I like also, assuming Lee has to bat 3rd

[Mephistopheles]

Look, Fukudome has a chance to actually be good, but penciling him in as the leadoff hitter and acting like he is for sure going to be good next year and that he was just unlucky last year is ridiculous.

 

If this were true (which it's not) explain this:

 

MLB Babip - NPB Babip

.322 - .343 Kaz Matsui

.308 - .320 Hideki Matsui

.273 - .297 Kenji Johjima

.353 - .366 Ichiro Suzuki

.306 - .316 Tadahito Iguchi

.344 - .352 Akinori Iwamura

.311 - .315 So Taguchi

.266 - .278 Tsuyoshi Shinjo

.304 - .354 Kosuke Fukudome

 

Being the know-it-all about Japanese Baseball that you are, you tell me which of the nine is the outlier.

 

Trust me when I say that I have been following japanese baseball more than you ever will or ever care to. I can explain this. Everything that has transpired has been expected.

 

Up until the early part of this decade and late last decade baseball in Japan was stuck in the late 70s to mid 80s style of play in the US for a couple of the reasons. First of all, the cookie cutter ballpark in Japan lasted longer there than it did here. I'm sure you don't know this, but let's look at this from the point of American Baseball in the 1980s.

 

In the 1980s pitchers didn't rely on sinkers and pitches that induced groundballs nearly as much as they do today. Home runs weren't as prevalent so flyballs were at a relative advantage compared to what they were today. Also throw in the fact that teams loved speed and had tons of speedy hitters, but throw in the fact that most parks had astroturf. Astroturf plus fast black athletes plus groundballs doesn't equal good things for a pitcher. Pitchers in the early 80s and late 70s had to develop pitches that didn't induce groundballs that easily. That meant fastballs and changing speeds with forks, splits and changes to go with the occasional over the top curve and slider. Sinking fastballs and two seams were used primarily against the power hitters who didn't run well, but that's about a fourth of the hitters. Fast-forward twenty years and everyone can hit home runs and speed isn't as prevalent. That means pitchers who rely on groundballs are now at an relative advantage thanks to no astroturf and not giving up home runs. This explains the sudden explosion to sinking fastballs and two seams we've seen over the last twenty years. Obviously, they existed prior to this, but not nearly to the extent they do now where there are pitchers who only throw that pitch (see Brandon Webb). Brandon Webb would not be nearly as good in the 1980s as he is today. This also explains the complete evaporation of the forkball in the US since the forkball usually ends up in the air or missed.

 

Now let's look at Japanese baseball in the last ten years. Astroturf is still lingering around a bit, and most of the league had it at some point in the last ten or so years. There's not nearly the amount of power hitters there and the game is built around speed. Sound familiar? The staple of the Japanese reliever is the forkball and everyone in Japan throws one. Everyone from Mr Forkball Sasaki to the unparalleled reliever in professional baseball, Kyuji Fujikawa. Sound familiar? Have you seen a japanese pitcher rely on a sinking fastball or sinker? No, because no one throws it there. Sound familiar?

 

The pitchers there are different than the ones here. That's the biggest adjustment factor coming from Japan to the US. Pitchers there don't try to get groundballs and the two seam fastball and sinkers simply don't exist. They're starting to prop up with a few pitchers here and there, but its in its infancy stage. It's the same reason why pitchers like Sasaki come here and do well immediately, our hitters aren't used to seeing pitchers with that kind of repertoire. It goes both ways.

 

So throw Kosuke Fukudome coming here. He comes here does well early, then gets a steady diet of two-seamers and sinkers on the outer half the second half of the season and grounds out to second every time. That's what killed his BABIP, but then again it's going to take time for him to learn how to hit that pitch and recognize the fact that a righty can tail a pitch at his FB velo on the outer third. Most of the other Japanese hitters had an adjustment period learning to hit that pitch. It took Kaz Matsui two or three years to learn to hit it. His rookie year Hideki Matsui led the league in GB% rolling over the pitch. The thing is, EVERY JAPANESE HITTER, eventually learned to hit the pitch and hit their translated levels. There's not ONE anamoly that did not. Not one. Why should we believe Kosuke is the first? Afterall he was the best japanese hitter in his time over there. The best. He's not a stupid hitter who can't make adjustments. If he had a big [expletive] in his swing on the outer half Japanese pitchers would have found it out. They're not stupid. It's not that easy to get them out. It's going to take time for him to learn to hit that pitch. It's not going to be an overnight thing.

 

All of the guys hit their translated levels by their second year. Kosuke shouldn't be any different. As long as Lou doesn't jerk him around like a dumbass (which Lou probably will being the fickle bitch that he is), Kosuke should be fine. The other guys lost about .010 off their BABIP coming stateside, on average, with the two converging more closely as AB goes up. That puts him around a .340-.345 BABIP. If he doesn't hit for more power (which he will once he learns the intricacies of the sinker), a .330 BABIP alone will put him somewhere around .280/.380/.410. If he gets around .340 he'll be around .290/.390/.430, but as I've said all the players before him eventually got to their translated level, which for him, is a .300+ EqA or around .300/.400/.470 or so. Personally, I'm expecting something around .290/.390/.440. Though, I wouldn't be shocked if he hit 40 doubles this season and 50 doubles one year. Kosuke Fukudome will be fine.

 

Of course, I'm sure that my reasoning is stupid and pointless and your idea that it must because Japanese pitchers suck so he must suck no matter what and that's the explanation even though you know nothing about Japanese baseball and can't name five players in NPB right now. What a minute do you know what NPB is? Please...

 

I may be a dick, but be careful with arguing with me. I just might decide to post my reasoning and defend myself.

[mdwilla]

Fukodome/Johnson

Soranio

Bradley

Ramirez

Lee

Soto

little mike

Theriot

[17 Seconds]

Meph, you made a convincing argument. The problem is that you often make arguments that sound convincing. Then if/when they're wrong, you never talk about them again. I never said Fukudome wouldn't be good this season, I just don't understand how you can act so positive when you're been wrong about this stuff. That's your problem. It's never "I think this is what will happen", it's "This is what WILL happen, PERIOD.... unless it doesn't"

[Mephistopheles]

You didn't read it

[17 Seconds]

You're right Meph. Your theory is 100% full proof. There could never be an exception. Ever. This is not possible with any of your theories. No speculation, just pure 100% accurate (every time) future telling.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I agree that Kosuke is probably going to bounce back in some fashion, but where was this tempered projection for how he'd need to adjust to 2 seamers last year?

[Butterscup1679666578]

just think, that post could've been made without all of the smugness and condescension and it would be just as valid and probably more respected.

[XZero771679666304]

just think, that post could've been made without all of the smugness and condescension and it would be just as valid and probably more respected.

 

I'm not usually one to defend Meph, but Dex was asking for it.

 

 

And it is a very valid and compelling argument, even if the data pool isn't very deep. I am concerned about Kosuke, but I am far from ready to jump on the panic wagon and label him a bust. But only time will tell.

[17 Seconds]

just think, that post could've been made without all of the smugness and condescension and it would be just as valid and probably more respected.

 

I'm not usually one to defend Meph, but Dex was asking for it.

 

 

And it is a very valid and compelling argument, even if the data pool isn't very deep. I am concerned about Kosuke, but I am far from ready to jump on the panic wagon and label him a bust. But only time will tell.

 

I guess I was asking for it, but he brought it himsel by basically telling IMB he was being foolish for wanting to see if Kosuke can actually hit before giving him the leadoff spot... as if that's so unreasonable

[17 Seconds]

just think, that post could've been made without all of the smugness and condescension and it would be just as valid and probably more respected.

 

Which one?