2009 breakout prospects

[videographer]

2009 Breakout Prospects: Defined as a player who will make significant progress to solidify/identify ML prospect status.

 

Logan Watkins

Casey Coleman

Ryan Acosta

Jeffry Antigua

Marwin Gonzalez

Dan McDaniel

Drew Rundle

 

Ultra sleeper (shouldn’t be a prospect, but will end up one) - Michael Brenly

 

Players who will disappoint:

 

Jovan Rosa

Jericho Jones

Ryan Searle

Nelson Perez

Luis Bautista

Marcos Mateo

Hak-Ju Lee (first year in USA jitters)

 

Let the fires be stoked.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm a big fan of David Cales. He may stay in the pen this year, but I think he's going to continue to do really well for himself.

 

Also on the 2008 Draft front, I think Matt Cerda will take a step forward with the bat. He already appears to have an advanced eye at the plate(25/21 K/BB), so hopefully he can get comfortable behind the plate and get consistent playing time at Boise.

 

I'm hoping for a little more power from Nate Samson too, but even if not he looks like a stronger defender in the Theriot mold at the plate.

[Mephistopheles]

chris huseby...

[videographer]

An amendment to my lilst:

 

Supersleeper - Ryan Harvey as a pitcher

[Little Slide Rooter]

An amendment to my lilst:

 

Supersleeper - Ryan Harvey as a pitcher

 

Is this for reals?

[Guest]

Breakout:

 

RHP Robert Hernandez

RHP Dan McDaniel

SS Starlin Castro

 

Surprise (the good kind):

 

RHP Su-Min Jung

RHP Jon Nagel

OF Sean Williams

[Guest]

An amendment to my lilst:

 

Supersleeper - Ryan Harvey as a pitcher

 

Is this for reals?

 

So far, it hasn't happened.

[Outshined_One]

Five Sleepers who Break Out

 

Cody Hams (Aussie who will be in his first season in the US)

Casey Coleman (liked him when I saw him, has a great mentality and decent stuff)

Larry Suarez (should recover from TJS and put himself back on the map)

Jericho Jones (underrated, should move fast through the system)

Darwin Barney (won't be a world-beater, but gets the most out of his tools and had a nice showing in the AFL)

 

One BIG Sleeper: Jon Nagle (2008 draftee who had some injury issues, but has a very nice ceiling)

 

Five Disappointments

 

Tyler Colvin (I like him...but I just have a bad feeling about him next season)

Jovan Rosa (still not a fan, still think he'll end up at 1B)

Aaron Shafer (getting Brownlie vibes off him)

Kyler Burke (grumble)

Ryan Harvey (needs to be converted to P)

[Guest]

Five Sleepers who Break Out

 

Larry Suarez (should recover from TJS and put himself back on the map)

 

As long as he doesn't get more glass stuck in his arm.

 

...

[RedFlash]

I like Ryan Flaherty as a sleeper.

[davell]

Can someone tell me a little about Jon Nagle? I have no clue as to who he is.....

 

My breakout guys: Barney, Rosa(I think some of those doubles start to turn into homers), Guyer, Caridad, Searle, Antigua

 

My disappointments: Castillo, Nelson Perez, Atkins, Rhee(won't be back to full strength this year) Carpenter, Suarez

[SweetZombieJesus]

breakout prospect with the cubs? :lol:

[the splendid splinter]

Breakout players. Guyer, Leverton, and Marwin Gonzalez.

 

Nagel was in last years draft 2008. 6'5 230 Rp out of Independence CC in Missouri.

 

17th round, had Tommy John before he was signed.

 

Suppose to have big stuff, like 92-95 with a decent breaking ball and would have possibly went

2nd to 4th round.

[BigbadB]

Guys I'd like to see breakout:

 

Andrew Cashner

Josh Vitters

Tyler Colvin

Mark Pawelek

Grant Johnson

Ryan Harvey

[Wrigley Rat]

I think Grant Johnson will be released at the end of spring training.

 

I'd prefer to do this list after I know which level everyone has been assigned to. With my luck, my "sleepers" will all be double promoted and flail, while my "disappointments" will repeat a level and flourish!

[Outshined_One]

breakout prospect with the cubs? :lol:

 

Geovany Soto.

[Wrigley Rat]

Breakout season:

If at Tennessee:

Jeremy Papelbon (as a starting pitcher)

Marcos Mateo (as a closer)

Blake Lalli (C/1B)

Marquez Smith (3B - despite poor Hawaii season)

James Adduci (CF)

Ty Wright (RF)

If at Daytona:

Hank Williamson (as a closer)

John Gaub (RP)

Steve Vento (RP)

Luis Bautista (1B/C)

Jovan Rosa (3B/1B)

Brandon Guyer (LF - needs to hit LHP better)

If at Peoria:

Dan McDaniel (CL)

David Cales (RP)

Tony Campana (CF)

Kyler Burke (RF)

Marwin Gonzalez (SS/2B)

Carlos Perez ©

(Not sure about short season guys and don't want to rate AAA players.)

 

Will struggle:

Ryan Harvey (as an OF or P)

Welington Castillo (moreso if in Iowa, but still to some extent at Tenn)

Robert Hernandez (unless he repeats Peoria again)

All SP's at Peoria (Coleman, Dolis, Bristow, Whitlock, Leverton, Carpenter, R. Acosta)

 

Will have a breakout season if they can learn how to command their stuff:

Donald Veal (he'll be returned)

Andrew Cashner

Chris Archer

Jeff Beliveau (one of my favorite sleepers)

Ryan Buchter

Mark Pawelek (probably at Boise again)

Chris Huseby (same as Pawelek)

[SweetZombieJesus]

breakout prospect with the cubs? :lol:

 

Geovany Soto.

 

I'd rather have Andy Sisco.

[UK1679666180]

Will have a breakout season if they can learn how to command their stuff:

Donald Veal (he'll be returned)

Andrew Cashner

Chris Archer

Jeff Beliveau (one of my favorite sleepers)

Ryan Buchter

Mark Pawelek (probably at Boise again)

Chris Huseby (same as Pawelek)

 

I'd put Matchulat in that catagory as well.

[BigbadB]

I've already forgotten. What team drafted Veal?

[Outshined_One]

I've already forgotten. What team drafted Veal?

 

Pirates

[craig]

"Breakout" to me means either of a couple of things: a guy who steps up performance; a guy who steps up his status significantly; or a guy who emerges out of obscurity into recognition.

 

Often a "breakout' guy is somebody whose status might upgrade a lot because hopes (previously hoped but not with much confidence) become confirmed; but often that same guy is a "disappointment" candidate. We've had hopes for a guy, he has some physical talent, and if he has a really good year he could establish himself as a much more highly respected prospect than he is now; but if he goes the year without showing any production, his status will go way down. Examples:

*Vitters. We hope he'll be a big star hitter, and mature into power, and with maturity show more patience, and with practice become a satisfactory 3B. If he does a lot of those things in the A-A+ level at age 19, he'll "break out" from current "could become good" to an elite prospect. But if he hits .260 without many HR's, and with a 95K-20walk ratio, while looking like a DH at 3B, he could break toward the bust end.

*Guyers: He's shown some power, and some promising qualities, and perhaps if his arm is 100% maybe he'll be able to throw like a RF, not just a LF. If he hits for power while playing good defense, in A+/AA, he could emerge as a legit prospect. But at his age, if he hits .250 with poor K/BB and remains limited to LF/DH, nobody will give him much consideration next winter.

*Suarez: Somebody mentioned him. As a big guy with a former high bonus, we assume he must have some potential based on the money and the size. But if he spends another season with blah results, no K's, and no breaking ball, he might be totally forgotten by next winter.

*Shaffer and Carpenter: College pitchers drafted pretty high. We have hopes that their draft status means they've got real ability, that whatever their ups and downs this summer were adjustment-oriented and still lingering from their injuries, and that after some winter refinements and spring training, and being further distances from their injuries, that they'll show up in full-season with big-league arms and big-league stuff and be very impressive relative to A+ hitters. If either one does very well in Daytona, and we get some favorable reports about their arm/stuff/control, they could fly up the organizational chart pretty quickly. "Break out". But either could be relatively forgotten, too, if their velocities/results/control are all shown to be deficient. There just isn't much patience for college arms who don't produce.

*One who I'm interested in a nice breakout is Ty Wright. I think he had some nagging health issues that he played through, and obviously his power potential is limited. But there is a certain value in good contact/OBP guys. If he were to show up at AA, hit .315 with a .390 OBP and 14 HR, I think we might be looking at him at a fundamentally sound baseball player who will play in the major leagues, even if not as an All-Star.

[the splendid splinter]

(Craig) Good job on Ty Wright, he's really slipped under the radar. 1st full year @Daytona and played the last two months with a sports hernia which was operated on after the season and FSL championship.

[questionmarkgrace]

seriously, six guys are not going to break out at each level. That would never happen even in the best farm system. As cubs fans we would be lucky to see one or two guys "breakout" total. That said i see Jay Jackson continuing his pitching dominance in higher levels and James Adduci establishing himself as an outfield prospect.

 

Lets face it, there are no Evan Longoria's here who are going to fly through the system.

[biittner77]

Lets face it, there are no Evan Longoria's here who are going to fly through the system.

 

I could see Cashner as maybe being the closest possibility for the fast track if they decide to turn him into a short reliever like what they did with Smardz last year. I don't believe that's very likely but Piniella likes power arms and there's a pretty good chance they'll need one down the stretch.