Cubs acquire Kevin Gregg for Jose Ceda

[Gingerballs Lives]

Nobody said Marmol will be closing, Hendry said it would be up to Lou to choose between Marmol and Gregg. Most media people think Marmol is ready to be the closer, so their assuming he is the favorite. Last year we went into camp with Wood, Marmol and Howry fighting for the closer job. Wood still won the job, even though Marmol was awesome. I personally think Piniella realizes Marmol is a weapon to use in the middle innings, so I think there's a good chance Gregg ends up being the closer.

 

With the way Lou is, I just can't imagine him sticking with gregg as the closer as he's walking guys non-stop. I know Marmol walks a lot of guy's too, but he has the K's and the ability to not give up hits to make up for it.

 

I could see Gregg walking 2 guys and then serving up a 3 run bomb in a save opp in ST and Lou saying "that's it, Marmol is closing"

 

Ugh.

[Rob]

pretty decent does not excite me. Mike Wuertz has been pretty decent for years and the Cubs keep screwing around with him.

Fair enough, but that's more of an issue with Lou's use of Wuertz than Gregg's performance.

 

I don't know where Gregg stands in relation to other relievers using BAA, OBP, SLG. But I would guess it's in the upper third, which makes him "alright" (a fair assessment).

 

Relievers don't have all that much control over their triple slash stats. Look at Brad Lidge... his peripherals stayed pretty constant, but luck has made his numbers jump all over the place.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=lidge

So, even indicators like K/BB rate and GB % aren't good enough because in the Lidge example you posted, his K/BB ratio and GB % has been about the same over the last 4 years yet his SLGA has been .323, .408, .409, and .269?

 

Conversely, when Gregg's GB% and K/BB ratio were better, he posted much worse slash splits.

 

Is it fair to say that we really don't know what will happen and can only go by what has happened?

 

No, not really. You're attempting to give Gregg triple credit because the Marlins defense has performed extremely well behind him the last couple years... something which he had no control over.

[The Other 15]

Haven't the Marlins been very erratic with their infield defense over the last couple of seasons? Calling them erratic could possibly be complimentary to how they actually played defense in general. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but do they only play good defense when Gregg pitched?

[nilodnayr]

Wait, so moving Marmol to closer will not allow Lou to use him like he did last year, but Lou...used...him...poorly...last...year...circular formula not computing.

 

He didn't use him poorly...he just overused him

 

Marmol in the closer role almost seems like a waste

 

lou used him poorly ... some of the time

 

if marmol makes 50 appearances or whatever as a closer, that will be misusing him all of the time

 

Well thats just wrong. Using someone as a closer is pretty much by definition using him really well some of the time and poorly some of the time.

[imb]

Wait, so moving Marmol to closer will not allow Lou to use him like he did last year, but Lou...used...him...poorly...last...year...circular formula not computing.

 

He didn't use him poorly...he just overused him

 

Marmol in the closer role almost seems like a waste

 

lou used him poorly ... some of the time

 

if marmol makes 50 appearances or whatever as a closer, that will be misusing him all of the time

 

Well thats just wrong. Using someone as a closer is pretty much by definition using him really well some of the time and poorly some of the time.

 

yeah, you're right. I shouldn't have said all the time. I was just saying that odds are using Marmol strictly as a closer will lead to more misuse than if he's left in his fireman role.

[nilodnayr]

Wait, so moving Marmol to closer will not allow Lou to use him like he did last year, but Lou...used...him...poorly...last...year...circular formula not computing.

 

He didn't use him poorly...he just overused him

 

Marmol in the closer role almost seems like a waste

 

lou used him poorly ... some of the time

 

if marmol makes 50 appearances or whatever as a closer, that will be misusing him all of the time

 

Well thats just wrong. Using someone as a closer is pretty much by definition using him really well some of the time and poorly some of the time.

 

yeah, you're right. I shouldn't have said all the time. I was just saying that odds are using Marmol strictly as a closer will lead to more misuse than if he's left in his fireman role.

 

yeah, the problem is lou doesnt use him as strictly a fireman. itd be best to use him based on leverage, not as a closer only in save situations or set up man only in set up situations, but i know thats asking for a lot.

[Rob]

Haven't the Marlins been very erratic with their infield defense over the last couple of seasons? Calling them erratic could possibly be complimentary to how they actually played defense in general. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but do they only play good defense when Gregg pitched?

 

Nope. Check it out for yourself... you'll have to cut and paste this link.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=der&direction=DESC&qual_filter=ignore&season_filter[]=2008&league_filter[]=2&team_filter[]=FLA&Submit=Submit

[SouthSideRyan]

Nobody said Marmol will be closing, Hendry said it would be up to Lou to choose between Marmol and Gregg. Most media people think Marmol is ready to be the closer, so their assuming he is the favorite. Last year we went into camp with Wood, Marmol and Howry fighting for the closer job. Wood still won the job, even though Marmol was awesome. I personally think Piniella realizes Marmol is a weapon to use in the middle innings, so I think there's a good chance Gregg ends up being the closer.

 

With the way Lou is, I just can't imagine him sticking with gregg as the closer as he's walking guys non-stop. I know Marmol walks a lot of guy's too, but he has the K's and the ability to not give up hits to make up for it.

 

I could see Gregg walking 2 guys and then serving up a 3 run bomb in a save opp in ST and Lou saying "that's it, Marmol is closing"

 

I can't wait til Lou's "I'm screaming about Will Ohman walking a couple guys, but I'm making it sound general" rant about Kevin Gregg. This should be next year's prediction contest tiebreaker. (Like I'll need to win on a tie. Again.)

[The Other 15]

Haven't the Marlins been very erratic with their infield defense over the last couple of seasons? Calling them erratic could possibly be complimentary to how they actually played defense in general. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but do they only play good defense when Gregg pitched?

 

Nope. Check it out for yourself... you'll have to cut and paste this link.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=der&direction=DESC&qual_filter=ignore&season_filter[]=2008&league_filter[]=2&team_filter[]=FLA&Submit=Submit

 

I'm confused again. That site says that Florida, with 116 throwing and fielding errors, was second only to Washington in committing the most errors in the NL. How does that help the argument that Gregg was the recipient of a good defense?

[erik316wttn]

Wait, so moving Marmol to closer will not allow Lou to use him like he did last year, but Lou...used...him...poorly...last...year...circular formula not computing.

 

He didn't use him poorly...he just overused him

 

Marmol in the closer role almost seems like a waste

 

lou used him poorly ... some of the time

 

if marmol makes 50 appearances or whatever as a closer, that will be misusing him all of the time

 

Well thats just wrong. Using someone as a closer is pretty much by definition using him really well some of the time and poorly some of the time.

 

yeah, you're right. I shouldn't have said all the time. I was just saying that odds are using Marmol strictly as a closer will lead to more misuse than if he's left in his fireman role.

 

Surprisingly, over the course of the year he might be used better. He might not be brought in during mop-up duty quite so often when we're up or down 8 runs.

[Rob]

Haven't the Marlins been very erratic with their infield defense over the last couple of seasons? Calling them erratic could possibly be complimentary to how they actually played defense in general. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but do they only play good defense when Gregg pitched?

 

Nope. Check it out for yourself... you'll have to cut and paste this link.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=der&direction=DESC&qual_filter=ignore&season_filter[]=2008&league_filter[]=2&team_filter[]=FLA&Submit=Submit

 

I'm confused again. That site says that Florida, with 116 throwing and fielding errors, was second only to Washington in committing the most errors in the NL. How does that help the argument that Gregg was the recipient of a good defense?

 

For the record, errors don't mean jack squat.

 

What I had that link set up to display was defensive efficiency... which is a measure of how often the defense turns a ball in play into an out... which is what we're looking for... not whether they committed "errors". And what you're seeing is that Gregg benefited disproportionately from his defensive unit (which BP has ranked just a tick above the middle of the pack... 13th overall). They turned 75.3% of the balls in play into outs with him on the mound, but only about 69.3% on the average.

[The Other 15]

Haven't the Marlins been very erratic with their infield defense over the last couple of seasons? Calling them erratic could possibly be complimentary to how they actually played defense in general. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but do they only play good defense when Gregg pitched?

 

Nope. Check it out for yourself... you'll have to cut and paste this link.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=der&direction=DESC&qual_filter=ignore&season_filter[]=2008&league_filter[]=2&team_filter[]=FLA&Submit=Submit

 

I'm confused again. That site says that Florida, with 116 throwing and fielding errors, was second only to Washington in committing the most errors in the NL. How does that help the argument that Gregg was the recipient of a good defense?

 

For the record, errors don't mean jack squat.

 

What I had that link set up to display was defensive efficiency... which is a measure of how often the defense turns a ball in play into an out... which is what we're looking for... not whether they committed "errors". And what you're seeing is that Gregg benefited disproportionately from his defensive unit (which BP has ranked just a tick above the middle of the pack... 13th overall). They turned 75.3% of the balls in play into outs with him on the mound, but only about 69.3% on the average.

 

 

So that's it then, the DER is what matters? I see he also has a similar DER in 2007. Amazingly, they just field better for him. The pitcher has nothing to do with this?

 

Are Harden (.790 DER) and Marmol (.831) just lucky too because the defense seems to play better for them? Or does how they pitch have something to do with what kind of balls are put in play?

 

I find it odd that Gregg, Pinto, Volsted, Olson, Nelson, and Nolasco, all pitchers with decent DER numbers (and coincidently better LD% than the rest of the staff) were simply the beneficiaries of a good defense playing over its head just for them.

 

I completely disagree that one sole stat like DER is the tell all about a pitchers performance if three stats like BAA, OBP and SLG are just random as I've been told.

[Rob]

Haven't the Marlins been very erratic with their infield defense over the last couple of seasons? Calling them erratic could possibly be complimentary to how they actually played defense in general. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but do they only play good defense when Gregg pitched?

 

Nope. Check it out for yourself... you'll have to cut and paste this link.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=der&direction=DESC&qual_filter=ignore&season_filter[]=2008&league_filter[]=2&team_filter[]=FLA&Submit=Submit

 

I'm confused again. That site says that Florida, with 116 throwing and fielding errors, was second only to Washington in committing the most errors in the NL. How does that help the argument that Gregg was the recipient of a good defense?

 

For the record, errors don't mean jack squat.

 

What I had that link set up to display was defensive efficiency... which is a measure of how often the defense turns a ball in play into an out... which is what we're looking for... not whether they committed "errors". And what you're seeing is that Gregg benefited disproportionately from his defensive unit (which BP has ranked just a tick above the middle of the pack... 13th overall). They turned 75.3% of the balls in play into outs with him on the mound, but only about 69.3% on the average.

 

 

So that's it then, the DER is what matters? I see he also has a similar DER in 2007. Amazingly, they just field better for him. The pitcher has nothing to do with this?

 

Are Harden (.790 DER) and Marmol (.831) just lucky too because the defense seems to play better for them? Or does how they pitch have something to do with what kind of balls are put in play?

 

I find it odd that Gregg, Pinto, Volsted, Olson, Nelson, and Nolasco, all pitchers with decent DER numbers (and coincidently better LD% than the rest of the staff) were simply the beneficiaries of a good defense playing over its head just for them.

 

I completely disagree that one sole stat like DER is the tell all about a pitchers performance if three stats like BAA, OBP and SLG are just random as I've been told.

 

And in 2004 Gregg ranked 11th out of 16 Angels pitchers.

And in 2005 Gregg ranked 15th out of 18 Angels pitchers.

And in 2006 Gregg ranked 15th out of 18 Angels pitchers.

 

You say Gregg has just figured it out. I say his defense is doing him some favors the last couple years.

 

I'm not calling DER the one telling stat for pitchers. It's telling of team defense, and that's about it. His strikeout rate, walk rate, groundball tendencies, and other peripherals are much more important (read: stable) than junk like hit rate (which is why BAA, OBA, and SLG are less useful). DER was simply a tool to help prove that there's a whole bunch of sway in hit rate (without resorting to arbitrary scoring decisions like calling errors).

[The Other 15]

Haven't the Marlins been very erratic with their infield defense over the last couple of seasons? Calling them erratic could possibly be complimentary to how they actually played defense in general. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but do they only play good defense when Gregg pitched?

 

Nope. Check it out for yourself... you'll have to cut and paste this link.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=der&direction=DESC&qual_filter=ignore&season_filter[]=2008&league_filter[]=2&team_filter[]=FLA&Submit=Submit

 

I'm confused again. That site says that Florida, with 116 throwing and fielding errors, was second only to Washington in committing the most errors in the NL. How does that help the argument that Gregg was the recipient of a good defense?

 

For the record, errors don't mean jack squat.

 

What I had that link set up to display was defensive efficiency... which is a measure of how often the defense turns a ball in play into an out... which is what we're looking for... not whether they committed "errors". And what you're seeing is that Gregg benefited disproportionately from his defensive unit (which BP has ranked just a tick above the middle of the pack... 13th overall). They turned 75.3% of the balls in play into outs with him on the mound, but only about 69.3% on the average.

 

 

So that's it then, the DER is what matters? I see he also has a similar DER in 2007. Amazingly, they just field better for him. The pitcher has nothing to do with this?

 

Are Harden (.790 DER) and Marmol (.831) just lucky too because the defense seems to play better for them? Or does how they pitch have something to do with what kind of balls are put in play?

 

I find it odd that Gregg, Pinto, Volsted, Olson, Nelson, and Nolasco, all pitchers with decent DER numbers (and coincidently better LD% than the rest of the staff) were simply the beneficiaries of a good defense playing over its head just for them.

 

I completely disagree that one sole stat like DER is the tell all about a pitchers performance if three stats like BAA, OBP and SLG are just random as I've been told.

 

And in 2004 Gregg ranked 11th out of 16 Angels pitchers.

And in 2005 Gregg ranked 15th out of 18 Angels pitchers.

And in 2006 Gregg ranked 15th out of 18 Angels pitchers.

 

You say Gregg has just figured it out. I say his defense is doing him some favors the last couple years.

 

I'm not calling DER the one telling stat for pitchers. It's telling of team defense, and that's about it. His strikeout rate, walk rate, groundball tendencies, and other peripherals are much more important (read: stable) than junk like hit rate (which is why BAA, OBA, and SLG are less useful). DER was simply a tool to help prove that there's a whole bunch of sway in hit rate (without resorting to arbitrary scoring decisions like calling errors).

 

"You say Gregg has just figured it out. I say his defense is doing him some favors the last couple years."

 

Therein lies the foundation of our differences on this topic. I'll not dispute that his defense may be doing him "some favors", but it doesn't make sense that his defense is entirely responsible for his numbers the last two seasons. Which is something (even if you're not trying to convey) that comes across as your opinion.

 

One guy (Tim) makes a point that the K/BB ratio and GB% are a important indicators (which I agree), you are pointing to the team defense (which I also agree plays a factor), and I'm pointing out that there are obviously more reasons (some spreadsheet related and some not) why pitchers get good results.

 

This was interesting, you made a good point, and you didn't apply the predictable "ugh, you just don't get it!" that people who enjoy using many different splits often do into our discussion. That's much appreciated.

[nilodnayr]

 

"You say Gregg has just figured it out. I say his defense is doing him some favors the last couple years."

 

Therein lies the foundation of our differences on this topic. I'll not dispute that his defense may be doing him "some favors", but it doesn't make sense that his defense is entirely responsible for his numbers the last two seasons. Which is something (even if you're not trying to convey) that comes across as your opinion.

 

One guy (Tim) makes a point that the K/BB ratio and GB% are a important indicators (which I agree), you are pointing to the team defense (which I also agree plays a factor), and I'm pointing out that there are obviously more reasons (some spreadsheet related and some not) why pitchers get good results.

 

This was interesting, you made a good point, and you didn't apply the predictable "ugh, you just don't get it!" that people who enjoy using many different splits often do into our discussion. That's much appreciated.

 

So you are arguing that a pitcher has control over his BABIP neutralizing for batted ball type? You aren't going to win that battle, especially for a reliever that has such little batters faced that way more of their BABIP is due to luck rather than anything the pitcher does.

[The Other 15]

 

"You say Gregg has just figured it out. I say his defense is doing him some favors the last couple years."

 

Therein lies the foundation of our differences on this topic. I'll not dispute that his defense may be doing him "some favors", but it doesn't make sense that his defense is entirely responsible for his numbers the last two seasons. Which is something (even if you're not trying to convey) that comes across as your opinion.

 

One guy (Tim) makes a point that the K/BB ratio and GB% are a important indicators (which I agree), you are pointing to the team defense (which I also agree plays a factor), and I'm pointing out that there are obviously more reasons (some spreadsheet related and some not) why pitchers get good results.

 

This was interesting, you made a good point, and you didn't apply the predictable "ugh, you just don't get it!" that people who enjoy using many different splits often do into our discussion. That's much appreciated.

 

So you are arguing that a pitcher has control over his BABIP neutralizing for batted ball type? You aren't going to win that battle, especially for a reliever that has such little batters faced that way more of their BABIP is due to luck rather than anything the pitcher does.

No, I'm stating that there are multiple reasons, not limited to "luck" or stats that just reflect luck.

[nilodnayr]

 

"You say Gregg has just figured it out. I say his defense is doing him some favors the last couple years."

 

Therein lies the foundation of our differences on this topic. I'll not dispute that his defense may be doing him "some favors", but it doesn't make sense that his defense is entirely responsible for his numbers the last two seasons. Which is something (even if you're not trying to convey) that comes across as your opinion.

 

One guy (Tim) makes a point that the K/BB ratio and GB% are a important indicators (which I agree), you are pointing to the team defense (which I also agree plays a factor), and I'm pointing out that there are obviously more reasons (some spreadsheet related and some not) why pitchers get good results.

 

This was interesting, you made a good point, and you didn't apply the predictable "ugh, you just don't get it!" that people who enjoy using many different splits often do into our discussion. That's much appreciated.

 

So you are arguing that a pitcher has control over his BABIP neutralizing for batted ball type? You aren't going to win that battle, especially for a reliever that has such little batters faced that way more of their BABIP is due to luck rather than anything the pitcher does.

No, I'm stating that there are multiple reasons, not limited to "luck" or stats that just reflect luck.

 

And those reasons are?

[nilodnayr]

Ping, deleting posts???

[UK1679666180]

Ping, deleting posts???

 

Yeah, I misread that.

 

But pitchers do have some control as far as their BABIP against but it's off-set by how well they strikeout hitters.

[TruffleShuffle]

thats not important.

 

Please enlighten us as to what is important.

 

Maybe it could be like that 4,000 word post claiming how awesome Khalil Greene is, months before he put up blistering sub-.600 OPS.

 

:lol: