Fukudome to move to centerfield next year

[FergieJ31]

Soriano would probably be better in RF than Abreu.

 

Maybe, mostly for his arm, but it's close. That friggin hop just annoys the crap out of me.

[Rob]

Soriano would probably be better in RF than Abreu.

 

Maybe, mostly for his arm, but it's close. That friggin hop just annoys the crap out of me.

 

Abreu's arm is worse, and he's even more scared of the wall than Soriano is.

 

By the way, don't most defensive metrics have Soriano as a better than average LF?

[FergieJ31]

Soriano would probably be better in RF than Abreu.

 

Maybe, mostly for his arm, but it's close. That friggin hop just annoys the crap out of me.

 

Abreu's arm is worse, and he's even more scared of the wall than Soriano is.

 

By the way, don't most defensive metrics have Soriano as a better than average LF?

 

I've been meaning to ask SSR for a link - I'd like to read more about defense metrics. Sori still has decent footspeed and a cannon, but his route-taking sucks.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm scouring a bit looking for them Fergie. The advanced defensive metrics are a little harder to track down.

 

I've got Soriano as +15 in '06 according to John Dewan, and Abreu as -12 for '07.(He was -40 cumulatively from '05-'07)

 

http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/overview.asp

 

Here's an overview on the methodology.

[FergieJ31]

I'm scouring a bit looking for them Fergie. The advanced defensive metrics are a little harder to track down.

 

I've got Soriano as +15 in '06 according to John Dewan, and Abreu as -12 for '07.(He was -40 cumulatively from '05-'07)

 

http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/overview.asp

 

Here's an overview on the methodology.

 

Thanks a lot - reading it now.

[SouthSideRyan]

UZR had Soriano at +16 last season(best among all LFs)

 

As of June 8th, UZR had Abreu at -35 per 150 games in RF.

 

Since these systems take a ton of work and effort, most of these guys don't release full results. Mitchel Lichtman, the creator of UZR previously worked for the Cardinals, and since getting(and since leaving/losing) that job he has not published full results.

 

Dewan publishes a book, The Fielding Bible with the information. So basically you have to scour around, try and find the info somewhere, or the best of and worst of which most release.

[Soul]

I dunno, is Dunn really the best we can do to bring in a lefty bat of consequence?

[Elrhino]

I like the idea of Hermida a lot. He actually reminds me a lot of ARam when we stole him from the Pirates. Worst case scenerio: he's a dirt cheap and young platoon partner with DeRo ... and I'm perfectly comfortable with that. Good case scenerio ... he bounces back to 2007 production. Best case scenerio ... sky is the limit.

[Rob]

If this is the way it is, I'm all about Hermida. I'd much rather have him than Abreu or Dunn, given ages, contracts, and defense.

[rocket]

Isn't there some stories about Fukudome not wanting to play CF and choosing the Cubs b/c they had him slated in RF?

 

I don't want Johnson back and I'm not sure Fuku can handle CF but I guess they are stuck together (Fukudome and the Cubs) so they might as well make the best out of a bad situation.

 

I don't think he has leverage anymore.

 

In Kosuke's introduction press conference, he said he chose the Cubs because the Cubs want him to play his natural position of RF. It was an organizational promise by the Cubs that the Cubs have now broken.

 

yeah, that's too bad.

[SouthSideRyan]

On the defensive metrics, your mileage may vary on how much stock you put into him. (I tend to devalue UZR subconsciously cause Lichtman might be the biggest prick I've ever dealt with when talking baseball) I certainly don't swear by them, but it's nice to have another set of data to look at for defense.

[mcgoobs]

Isn't there some stories about Fukudome not wanting to play CF and choosing the Cubs b/c they had him slated in RF?

 

I don't want Johnson back and I'm not sure Fuku can handle CF but I guess they are stuck together (Fukudome and the Cubs) so they might as well make the best out of a bad situation.

 

I don't think he has leverage anymore.

 

In Kosuke's introduction press conference, he said he chose the Cubs because the Cubs want him to play his natural position of RF. It was an organizational promise by the Cubs that the Cubs have now broken.

 

Then we can void his contract, re-sign him to his market value, and make him the backup right fielder.

 

In all seriousness, I would be surprised though if this decision wasn't at least discussed with Fukudome after the season ended.

[Athletics36]

I don't understand why everybody is so happy about moving Fukudome to CF?? To me the issue is more what he's doing up at bat and swinging like a girl!!!! Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't JH saying that all the LH power issues were solved with this signing. If I'm JH I pray that the Padres take him but sad part is the Cubbies will probably have to pick-up most of his salary. Fukudome is currently in Lou's doghouse and thats not a good thing.

[17 Seconds]

I don't understand why everybody is so happy about moving Fukudome to CF??

 

What don't you understand about it? Fukudome doesn't hit enough to be a right fielder. By moving him to center, it allows Hendry to go out and get a RF who can actually hit. Good hitting right fielders are much easier to find than good hitting center fielders. Plus in center he'll have a platoon partner so he won't have to face lefties. Why would you want to keep him in RF when that's the position where upgrades are available?

[Lefty]

Please go get Hermida for RF if he's remotely available.

Care to explain this? I was a big fan of Hermida, but he took a step backward last year. Do you just happen to think it was a fluke because he's still so young, or is there something I'm missing?

 

Falling off a little was probably to be expected with as high as his BABIP was in '07, but his '08 is masked by terrible numbers in a terrible hitters park. His .288/.364/.487/.851 line away from home as a 24 year old is pretty stellar, and with his age and minor league pedigree you can expect him to improve. He'd also combine with Soto to give a great cost effective pair of hitters to ease the pain of Lee/Ramirez/Soriano declining or leaving the team.

 

As you know, throwing out half of someone's stats isn't the best thing to do.

 

Not generally, but when you have a guy who plays in an extreme pitchers/hitter's park, it gives you a decent idea of what you might expect out of him in a more neutral setting.

 

Not looking more at road stats when judging guys who play in places like Florida and San Diego or Colorado is really not an better an idea.

 

And thats why you take his home stats and park adjust them...even though park adjustments aren't great, thats infinitely (well not infinitely) better than cutting your sample size in half. Throwing them out is just plain wrong.

 

"Throwing them out" is wrong if you are trying to measure his production. After all, he was killing the Marlins when he batted at home. But in trying to see how he'll do for us, it is a good tool. You don't want a half-year of stats(?), look at the last two years on the road. Good prognostication requires tools that are sensitive. Hermida might be no big deal. But he has a chance, unlike Matt Murton for instance, to be special.

[Lefty]

Fukudome is currently in Lou's doghouse and thats not a good thing.

 

Now you can tell us. Did someone who was very close to you reside there last spring?

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't understand why everybody is so happy about moving Fukudome to CF?? To me the issue is more what he's doing up at bat and swinging like a girl!!!! Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't JH saying that all the LH power issues were solved with this signing. If I'm JH I pray that the Padres take him but sad part is the Cubbies will probably have to pick-up most of his salary. Fukudome is currently in Lou's doghouse and thats not a good thing.

 

Because you're a hell of a lot more likely to find a good hitting RF than a good hitting CF?

[nilodnayr]

Please go get Hermida for RF if he's remotely available.

Care to explain this? I was a big fan of Hermida, but he took a step backward last year. Do you just happen to think it was a fluke because he's still so young, or is there something I'm missing?

 

Falling off a little was probably to be expected with as high as his BABIP was in '07, but his '08 is masked by terrible numbers in a terrible hitters park. His .288/.364/.487/.851 line away from home as a 24 year old is pretty stellar, and with his age and minor league pedigree you can expect him to improve. He'd also combine with Soto to give a great cost effective pair of hitters to ease the pain of Lee/Ramirez/Soriano declining or leaving the team.

 

As you know, throwing out half of someone's stats isn't the best thing to do.

 

Not generally, but when you have a guy who plays in an extreme pitchers/hitter's park, it gives you a decent idea of what you might expect out of him in a more neutral setting.

 

Not looking more at road stats when judging guys who play in places like Florida and San Diego or Colorado is really not an better an idea.

 

And thats why you take his home stats and park adjust them...even though park adjustments aren't great, thats infinitely (well not infinitely) better than cutting your sample size in half. Throwing them out is just plain wrong.

 

"Throwing them out" is wrong if you are trying to measure his production. After all, he was killing the Marlins when he batted at home. But in trying to see how he'll do for us, it is a good tool. You don't want a half-year of stats(?), look at the last two years on the road. Good prognostication requires tools that are sensitive. Hermida might be no big deal. But he has a chance, unlike Matt Murton for instance, to be special.

 

Aren't we trying to measure his production? Baseball stats is really a sample size game, it'd be irresponsible to throw out half your sample especially for a guy with such little major league time.

[Lefty]

Please go get Hermida for RF if he's remotely available.

Care to explain this? I was a big fan of Hermida, but he took a step backward last year. Do you just happen to think it was a fluke because he's still so young, or is there something I'm missing?

 

Falling off a little was probably to be expected with as high as his BABIP was in '07, but his '08 is masked by terrible numbers in a terrible hitters park. His .288/.364/.487/.851 line away from home as a 24 year old is pretty stellar, and with his age and minor league pedigree you can expect him to improve. He'd also combine with Soto to give a great cost effective pair of hitters to ease the pain of Lee/Ramirez/Soriano declining or leaving the team.

 

As you know, throwing out half of someone's stats isn't the best thing to do.

 

Not generally, but when you have a guy who plays in an extreme pitchers/hitter's park, it gives you a decent idea of what you might expect out of him in a more neutral setting.

 

Not looking more at road stats when judging guys who play in places like Florida and San Diego or Colorado is really not an better an idea.

 

And thats why you take his home stats and park adjust them...even though park adjustments aren't great, thats infinitely (well not infinitely) better than cutting your sample size in half. Throwing them out is just plain wrong.

 

"Throwing them out" is wrong if you are trying to measure his production. After all, he was killing the Marlins when he batted at home. But in trying to see how he'll do for us, it is a good tool. You don't want a half-year of stats(?), look at the last two years on the road. Good prognostication requires tools that are sensitive. Hermida might be no big deal. But he has a chance, unlike Matt Murton for instance, to be special.

 

Aren't we trying to measure his production? Baseball stats is really a sample size game, it'd be irresponsible to throw out half your sample especially for a guy with such little major league time.

 

Look, there is a "normal" gap between home and road performance. If over a three year period (and I don't have his career numbers in front of me) someone's performance has differed greatly from what was expected, we have to put some stock into that. Where we surprised when Burnitz didn't put up the same numbers here that he did in pre-humidor Coors? This is just the opposite. And if your trading partner has soured on him because he is not producing in their environment, then you have a chance to capture some added value.

[ER Cub]

At risk of statistical humiliation, wouldn't it also be possible to sign a RIGHT handed right fielder that could platoon with someone like Hoff? Especially since the consensus is that Pie is now expendable. Might be cheaper overall, what would that look like? (Could always go the trade route at the deadline if Micah implodes).

[Abe Frohman]

SS Furcal

RF Abreu

LF Soriano

3B Ramirez

1B Lee

CA Soto

2B DeRosa

CF Fukudome

[inari]

At risk of statistical humiliation, wouldn't it also be possible to sign a RIGHT handed right fielder that could platoon with someone like Hoff? Especially since the consensus is that Pie is now expendable. Might be cheaper overall, what would that look like? (Could always go the trade route at the deadline if Micah implodes).

 

Hoff is not a starting major league player.

[MrApril]

At risk of statistical humiliation, wouldn't it also be possible to sign a RIGHT handed right fielder that could platoon with someone like Hoff? Especially since the consensus is that Pie is now expendable. Might be cheaper overall, what would that look like? (Could always go the trade route at the deadline if Micah implodes).

 

 

 

I agree...Give Hoff the job, but I don't even think he needs a RH hitting Right Field to platoon with...Hoff holds his own very well against lefties (didn't he hit a bomb of a lefty in Shea). Hoff needs to play right everyday, Koske has enough range to play Center in small Wrigley field...end of discussion.

 

You have your middle of the order LH bat in Hoff...If he doesn't do well, move DeRosa to Right for a bit and have Fonte play second...bingo, bango, bongo.

 

Take the money you would have spent on a Right Fielder, and spend it on Pitching, Pitching, and more Pitching. Get another starter...Get a "lights out" reliever to go along with Marmol and Wood...because we all know, pitching wins World Series, especially in the bullpen...and its been 101 years.

[Roast]

At risk of statistical humiliation, wouldn't it also be possible to sign a RIGHT handed right fielder that could platoon with someone like Hoff? Especially since the consensus is that Pie is now expendable. Might be cheaper overall, what would that look like? (Could always go the trade route at the deadline if Micah implodes).

 

 

 

I agree...Give Hoff the job, but I don't even think he needs a RH hitting Right Field to platoon with...Hoff holds his own very well against lefties (didn't he hit a bomb of a lefty in Shea). Hoff needs to play right everyday, Koske has enough range to play Center in small Wrigley field...end of discussion.

 

You have your middle of the order LH bat in Hoff...If he doesn't do well, move DeRosa to Right for a bit and have Fonte play second...bingo, bango, bongo.

 

Take the money you would have spent on a Right Fielder, and spend it on Pitching, Pitching, and more Pitching. Get another starter...Get a "lights out" reliever to go along with Marmol and Wood...because we all know, pitching wins World Series, especially in the bullpen...and its been 101 years.

 

A few things: First of all, playing both hoff and Kosuke (assuming no massive turn around) would make our offense worse, not better. "lights out" reliever? Relievers are so incredibly fickle; there are very very few relievers who put up "lights out" numbers year in and year out. You can probably count them on your fingers. That's why spending big money on relievers is dumb (See: Bob Howry/Scott Eyre). As for pitching, I'd be all for another pitcher but I think that can be done without having to cripple our offense.

[MrApril]

At risk of statistical humiliation, wouldn't it also be possible to sign a RIGHT handed right fielder that could platoon with someone like Hoff? Especially since the consensus is that Pie is now expendable. Might be cheaper overall, what would that look like? (Could always go the trade route at the deadline if Micah implodes).

 

 

 

I agree...Give Hoff the job, but I don't even think he needs a RH hitting Right Field to platoon with...Hoff holds his own very well against lefties (didn't he hit a bomb of a lefty in Shea). Hoff needs to play right everyday, Koske has enough range to play Center in small Wrigley field...end of discussion.

 

You have your middle of the order LH bat in Hoff...If he doesn't do well, move DeRosa to Right for a bit and have Fonte play second...bingo, bango, bongo.

 

Take the money you would have spent on a Right Fielder, and spend it on Pitching, Pitching, and more Pitching. Get another starter...Get a "lights out" reliever to go along with Marmol and Wood...because we all know, pitching wins World Series, especially in the bullpen...and its been 101 years.

 

A few things: First of all, playing both hoff and Kosuke (assuming no massive turn around) would make our offense worse, not better. "lights out" reliever? Relievers are so incredibly fickle; there are very very few relievers who put up "lights out" numbers year in and year out. You can probably count them on your fingers. That's why spending big money on relievers is dumb (See: Bob Howry/Scott Eyre). As for pitching, I'd be all for another pitcher but I think that can be done without having to cripple our offense.

 

 

In no way shape or form should we ever have a crippled offensive lineup with the amount of money being paid to Soriano, Lee, Ramirez and DeRosa to a certain extent...as well as the emergence of Soto.

 

Put 3 blind monkeys in a lineup with those 5 guys and you should have a decent enough offensive squad.

 

Spend the extra money on a 3rd starter and put him in as the 5th starter behind Z, Demp, Harden, Lilly.

 

Then get the best reliever available not named K-Rod and shorten which will shorten everygame from 9 innings to 7 innings for the opposing team.

 

If that crippled lineup can't score more runs in 9 innings then the other team can in 7 innings...then Hendry should just blow it all up.