College Football - Week of 11/1

[Mephistopheles]

well the games before Ole Miss? 30-6 over Tennessee, their worse loss of the season, 26-3 over Miami, their worse loss of the season, 56-10 over Hawaii, their worse loss of the season. Again, a missed PAT against Ole Miss doesn't make them any worse. If Florida hits that PAT, they're probably #1 in the country and we're not having this conversation. That's the only PAT they've missed all season.

[bukie]

well the games before Ole Miss? 30-6 over Tennessee, their worse loss of the season, 26-3 over Miami, their worse loss of the season, 56-10 over Hawaii, their worse loss of the season. Again, a missed PAT against Ole Miss doesn't make them any worse. If Florida hits that PAT, they're probably #1 in the country and we're not having this conversation. That's the only PAT they've missed all season.

 

It's a shame Florida played a perfect game up to that missed PAT, which would have won them the game...

[Derwood]

well the games before Ole Miss? 30-6 over Tennessee, their worse loss of the season, 26-3 over Miami, their worse loss of the season, 56-10 over Hawaii, their worse loss of the season. Again, a missed PAT against Ole Miss doesn't make them any worse. If Florida hits that PAT, they're probably #1 in the country and we're not having this conversation. That's the only PAT they've missed all season.

 

I still think things will break for Florida though. Texas will lose, TT will lose, Florida will beat Bama in the SEC title game.

[shnsajax]

I love me some college OT. 100000x better than the lame NFL OT

 

Everything in the NFL is lame compared to college football.

[TruffleShuffle]

stanford 44, wazzu 0 about 6 minutes into the 2nd half. holy hell that team is awful.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'll agree that Florida is probably the best team right now, but I won't agree that as of right now that they deserve to play for the NC.

 

While the loss to Ole Miss may not mean much in determining how good they are, it means a lot when considering who deserves to be in the title game.

[Mephistopheles]

Okay? I'm not saying they're best team ever. Good teams lose games. Bad teams win games. 1 loss doesn't tell us much. 0 losses doesn't tell us much. I'm NOT saying Florida should be in the NC. I am NOT saying that Florida deserves to be in the title game ahead of Penn State, Texas or Alabama. I am saying they're a better football team right now. There really isn't a good argument otherwise. I'll throw out some numbers since that game since you're interested when I feel like it.

 

This would be a great year for a +1 system. Big XII winner, SEC winner, USC and Penn State. What really sucks is the fact PSU will have to win one big game and get in. That's why their schedule sucks - not really the Big Ten.

Edited November 1, 2008 by Mephistopheles

[Derwood]

I don't think Meph has said that Florida deserves it more than Bama/Texas. He just says the team is better. Why can't people differentiate between the two?

 

EDIT: he beat me by 5 seconds

[RedFlash]

Saban is a good coach and recruiter. I'll never say otherwise. On the other hand, he is a mercenary. My guess is if someone offered more money than 'Bama, he'd be gone.

 

I understand what you are saying vance, and Nick is definately a victim of his own ruthlessness so to speak. But a couple of reasons why he's not leaving Alabama:

 

1: Nick just turned 57 yrs old yesterday. Contrary to popular belief moving gets harder as you get older. He would only leave Alabama for the PERFECT situation. He won't Alabama for the NFL (he's done with the NFL, period). Personally, the perfect job to Nick Saban was the LSU job. That is the one job as I know of that he regretted leaving. If he had it to do again, he wouldn't have lefty LSU for the NFL. I know fans of other SEC teams absolutely would love for Saban to leave Alabama as quickly as he came (considering the recruiting classes he has brought to Alabama, and remember 2009 may actually be better then 08 class, when you can recruit the #1 RB, several top WR, and add some dang good OL prospects), but right now I don't forsee another school outbidding Alabama for Nick Saban. Not to mention Saban has COMPLETE control of the football program, unlike Alabama Polytechnic Institution near the Al/GA border.

 

2: The schools that can even approach what Bama is paying Saban, schools like USC/OSU/Michigan/FSU/LSU/OU/Texas these schools already have their coaches, and chances are they have their current coaches successors on their team. And quite frankly I don't see Saban leaving Alabama to take a step down job like Clemson or something similar. (if there are any Clemson fans on the board is offended by what I said, then I apologize, but it is true).

 

I expect Saban to be at Alabama till atleast 60-63 yrs old, period. By then Alabama should have his successor lined up and ready to take over.

 

All the things he has said since coming to Alabama, he said while he was at LSU. He made the same comments at LSU about loving it there and wanting to stay there. When he left LSU for the Dolphins, he told friends at LSU that he would NEVER take another college job and that his dream was to coach in the pros. So, you can believe him if you want, but many of us have heard it before. Saban is just like Larry Brown and Bill Parcells. They are mercenaries. They will never stay in one place long because it's not who they are, despite their words to the contrary.

 

I know you're cyncial, and I understand what you're saying, and I can't convince you why I feel this strongly about him staying. As I said earlier, the feeling I get is this...Saban has had one major regret in his career, that is leaving LSU for the NFL. He has said numerous times that if he could go back and change it,he would never have taken the Miami job. It's that simple. I know it's looks bad that he said he wouldn't take another SEC job, but let's face it, if it came down to taking a job you said you wouldn't and being unemployed, what would you do? I know he would not have been unemployed, but let's face it Saban did not want to stay at Miami. When he found out the NFL players are babies and would be polticians, he wanted out and Alabama gave him the means.

 

Simple truth is this: We Alabama fans know Saban and his reputation, and yes Alabama has been burned by a weasle caliber coach (haha at you Texas a&m), but this is different. He doesn't need to check out the NFL anymore. Leaving Alabama would be a lateral move at best. Believe it or not the ony team I fear about coming and getting Saban is LSU. While Nick is focused at Alabama, and he is Crimson Tide at this point, Saban's heart will always be LSU. That is the god's honest truth. In fact when Saban retires, I guarantee you he will live out his days in Louisana.

Edited November 1, 2008 by RedFlash

[RynoRules]

As a Michigan fan, its difficult for me to be upset with Rodriguez over what has happened this year. The seeds of this type of season were planted years ago, and now they are trying to run a system built for cheetahs with players who are more like elephants. It was bound to happen.

[Derwood]

As a Michigan fan, its difficult for me to be upset with Rodriguez over what has happened this year. The seeds of this type of season were planted years ago, and now they are trying to run a system built for cheetahs with players who are more like elephants. It was bound to happen.

 

it was the most predictable "down season" in years

[SouthSideRyan]

well the games before Ole Miss? 30-6 over Tennessee, their worse loss of the season, 26-3 over Miami, their worse loss of the season, 56-10 over Hawaii, their worse loss of the season. Again, a missed PAT against Ole Miss doesn't make them any worse. If Florida hits that PAT, they're probably #1 in the country and we're not having this conversation. That's the only PAT they've missed all season.

 

But they didn't make the PAT. They missed it. And because of that they lost a game to a team that isn't very good. You play to win the game. Losing the game is a bad thing, no matter how it happened.

 

And as was addressed, the fact that they were in the position to play to OT against Ole Miss is embarrassing enough already.

 

EDIT: And Miami's worst loss of the season? Who cares? Miami plays in the ACC, the ACC sucks and so do they. Giving them a worse loss than UNC and FSU tells me nothing.

Edited November 1, 2008 by SouthSideRyan

[imb]

oh my god, every post that contains the word "florida" (except this one) should be erased

 

we go through this same crap every week.

[SouthSideRyan]

My 3 game(centsports) parlay for tonight:

 

Texas(-4) vs. Texas Tech

Nebraska(+22) vs. Oklahoma

Tulane(+30) vs. LSU

[Mephistopheles]

oh my god, every post that contains the word "florida" (except this one) should be erased

 

we go through this same crap every week.

 

then block me. see if i care.

 

But they didn't make the PAT. They missed it. And because of that they lost a game to a team that isn't very good. You play to win the game. Losing the game is a bad thing, no matter how it happened.

 

You play to win in baseball. You're smart enough to recognize the difference between the two in that sport. Why not this one? Again, who actually won the game isn't as important as other things that go on in games. There's no difference between a 3 point loss and a 3 point win.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Saban is a good coach and recruiter. I'll never say otherwise. On the other hand, he is a mercenary. My guess is if someone offered more money than 'Bama, he'd be gone.

 

I understand what you are saying vance, and Nick is definately a victim of his own ruthlessness so to speak. But a couple of reasons why he's not leaving Alabama:

 

1: Nick just turned 57 yrs old yesterday. Contrary to popular belief moving gets harder as you get older. He would only leave Alabama for the PERFECT situation. He won't Alabama for the NFL (he's done with the NFL, period). Personally, the perfect job to Nick Saban was the LSU job. That is the one job as I know of that he regretted leaving. If he had it to do again, he wouldn't have lefty LSU for the NFL. I know fans of other SEC teams absolutely would love for Saban to leave Alabama as quickly as he came (considering the recruiting classes he has brought to Alabama, and remember 2009 may actually be better then 08 class, when you can recruit the #1 RB, several top WR, and add some dang good OL prospects), but right now I don't forsee another school outbidding Alabama for Nick Saban. Not to mention Saban has COMPLETE control of the football program, unlike Alabama Polytechnic Institution near the Al/GA border.

 

2: The schools that can even approach what Bama is paying Saban, schools like USC/OSU/Michigan/FSU/LSU/OU/Texas these schools already have their coaches, and chances are they have their current coaches successors on their team. And quite frankly I don't see Saban leaving Alabama to take a step down job like Clemson or something similar. (if there are any Clemson fans on the board is offended by what I said, then I apologize, but it is true).

 

I expect Saban to be at Alabama till atleast 60-63 yrs old, period. By then Alabama should have his successor lined up and ready to take over.

 

All the things he has said since coming to Alabama, he said while he was at LSU. He made the same comments at LSU about loving it there and wanting to stay there. When he left LSU for the Dolphins, he told friends at LSU that he would NEVER take another college job and that his dream was to coach in the pros. So, you can believe him if you want, but many of us have heard it before. Saban is just like Larry Brown and Bill Parcells. They are mercenaries. They will never stay in one place long because it's not who they are, despite their words to the contrary.

 

I know you're cyncial, and I understand what you're saying, and I can't convince you why I feel this strongly about him staying. As I said earlier, the feeling I get is this...Saban has had one major regret in his career, that is leaving LSU for the NFL. He has said numerous times that if he could go back and change it,he would never have taken the Miami job. It's that simple. I know it's looks bad that he said he wouldn't take another SEC job, but let's face it, if it came down to taking a job you said you wouldn't and being unemployed, what would you do? I know he would not have been unemployed, but let's face it Saban did not want to stay at Miami. When he found out the NFL players are babies and would be polticians, he wanted out and Alabama gave him the means.

 

Simple truth is this: We Alabama fans know Saban and his reputation, and yes Alabama has been burned by a weasle caliber coach (haha at you Texas a&m), but this is different. He doesn't need to check out the NFL anymore. Leaving Alabama would be a lateral move at best. Believe it or not the ony team I fear about coming and getting Saban is LSU. While Nick is focused at Alabama, and he is Crimson Tide at this point, Saban's heart will always be LSU. That is the god's honest truth. In fact when Saban retires, I guarantee you he will live out his days in Louisana.

 

You may be right, but I've heard Saban's sincere statements before. I just think he is who he is and that's a mercenary in the likes of Parcells and Brown. I don't think it makes him evil. I also don't hare him for leaving LSU. I don't think he stays at Alabama as long as you think. I do think he'll be there for 3-5 years, but after that I think he leaves for something else.

[imb]

oh my god, every post that contains the word "florida" (except this one) should be erased

 

we go through this same crap every week.

 

then block me. see if i care.

 

But they didn't make the PAT. They missed it. And because of that they lost a game to a team that isn't very good. You play to win the game. Losing the game is a bad thing, no matter how it happened.

 

You play to win in baseball. You're smart enough to recognize the difference between the two in that sport. Why not this one? Again, who actually won the game isn't as important as other things that go on in games. There's no difference between a 3 point loss and a 3 point win.

 

except in the standings. And rankings. Which matter.

[hawkeyecub]

EXACT same script as the other 3 losses this year. Awful playcalling and execution in the red zone (9 points on first 4 trips, come on), miss a short field goal, huge turnover that leads to points and end up losing a close game late.

 

The difference was today Stanzi was bad for most of the day and the o-line had perhaps their worst game all season.

 

Such a frustrating season.

[SouthSideRyan]

oh my god, every post that contains the word "florida" (except this one) should be erased

 

we go through this same crap every week.

 

then block me. see if i care.

 

But they didn't make the PAT. They missed it. And because of that they lost a game to a team that isn't very good. You play to win the game. Losing the game is a bad thing, no matter how it happened.

 

You play to win in baseball. You're smart enough to recognize the difference between the two in that sport. Why not this one? Again, who actually won the game isn't as important as other things that go on in games. There's no difference between a 3 point loss and a 3 point win.

 

A 162 game season where everyone plays everyone else(within their league) at least 6 times makes it a lot easier to compare teams and determine who is better.

 

Florida, Penn State, and Texas have 0 common opponents on their schedule. Why should we put blind faith in stats from a 12 game sample(or as short as 3 as you did earlier this year with your %odds) in football against wildly varying opponents?

[Mephistopheles]

Predictions!

 

Cincinnati 31, #24 USF 24 - Actual: Cincy 24-10 (7)

#20 Minnesota 24, N'western 21 - Actual: N'western 24-17 (10)

Wisconsin 21, #22 Michigan State 17 - Actual: Michigan State 25-24 (5)

#19 Tulsa 35, Arkansas 14 - Actual: Ark 30-23 (28)

#2 Alabama 38, Arkansas State 7 - Actual: Bama 30-0 (1)

#14 Missouri 42, Baylor 28 - Actual: Mizzou 31-28 (11)

#5 Florida 49, #8 Georgia 20 - Actual: 49-10 (10)

#9 Oklahoma State 45, Iowa State 14 - Actual: OSU 59-17 (11)

#16 Florida State 27, Georgia Tech 24 (OT) - GT 31-28 (6)

California 28, #23 Oregon, 21 - California 26-16 (4)

#17 BYU 45, Colorado State 14

#6 USC 56, Washington 6

#11 Boise State 42, New Mexico State 10

#1 Texas 48, #6 Texas Tech 24

#4 Oklahoma 42, Nebraska 28

#12 TCU 31, UNLV 3

#15 LSU 31, Tulane 17

#10 Utah 38, New Mexico 21

 

6-4. Avg Difference: 9.3

 

For comparison SSR is

7-3. Avg Difference: 15.1

 

Weird. He has one more correct than me, thus far, but i've been nearly twice as accurate at predicting the scores. Weird.

[RedFlash]

I don't think Meph has said that Florida deserves it more than Bama/Texas. He just says the team is better. Why can't people differentiate between the two?

 

EDIT: he beat me by 5 seconds

 

We'll see on early December.

[Mephistopheles]

A 162 game season where everyone plays everyone else(within their league) at least 6 times makes it a lot easier to compare teams and determine who is better.

 

Florida, Penn State, and Texas have 0 common opponents on their schedule. Why should we put blind faith in stats from a 12 game sample(or as short as 3 as you did earlier this year with your %odds) in football against wildly varying opponents?

 

You see this is why you're wrong. Let's look at your real argument here. I will translate your argument into what you are really saying. You tell me if it sounds smart to you.

 

In college football we have less games between opponents linking them up together. They also play a lot less games. In baseball, we play 162 games, with a lot more overlapping between opponents. Therefore, wins and losses tell us more in football, because they play less games. That's insanity. Wins and losses over 162 games in baseball tell us a lot more than Wins and losses in football after 12 games.

 

What actually happens in the games matters even more in football than in baseball because there are so few games. What's the difference in a game decided by a touchdown or less? One call? One big play? C'mon. W-L are not that important when it comes to analyzing how good teams are.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If a 3 point loss were really the same as a 3 point win, then teams would go for a touchdown down 3 at the end of the game instead of a field goal. Scoring is different in football, and as such it impacts team behavior, since they are trying to win the game instead of maximizing the score. That's not done in baseball, or at least on nearly the same scale.

[imb]

A 162 game season where everyone plays everyone else(within their league) at least 6 times makes it a lot easier to compare teams and determine who is better.

 

Florida, Penn State, and Texas have 0 common opponents on their schedule. Why should we put blind faith in stats from a 12 game sample(or as short as 3 as you did earlier this year with your %odds) in football against wildly varying opponents?

 

You see this is why you're wrong. Let's look at your real argument here. I will translate your argument into what you are really saying. You tell me if it sounds smart to you.

 

In college football we have less games between opponents linking them up together. They also play a lot less games. In baseball, we play 162 games, with a lot more overlapping between opponents. Therefore, wins and losses tell us more in football, because they play less games. That's insanity. Wins and losses over 162 games in baseball tell us a lot more than Wins and losses in football after 12 games.

 

What actually happens in the games matters even more in football than in baseball because there are so few games. What's the difference in a game decided by a touchdown or less? One call? One big play? C'mon. W-L are not that important when it comes to analyzing how good teams are.

 

No, but they play a huge part in deciding who gets to play for title games.

 

Meanwhile, every week we get to play "watch meph blow smoke up his own ass" in the college football threads.

[shnsajax]

I think its important to remember that all teams know how the system works prior to the season beginning. All teams know that if they lose 1 game regardless of the score it will diminish their odds of playing for the NC. While the current system sucks, it is what it is and everyone knows that you must actually win every game to control your own destiny. If you don't you become a victim of the system.