Post game discussion

[questionmarkgrace]

I knew this would be a tough game with Lowe's sinker and the cool weather but I had no idea dempster would choose today to revisit 2007. Our one two and five hitters cant go 0 for 12. Plain and simple. All the pressure is back on Z so lets see what happens tomorrow.

[big_shooter17]

I don't. The odds of us winning it are about the same as the odds of a 3-run come back in the late innings. Possible, but not worth hoping on.

 

That right now has the potential of being the dumbest thing that I have ever heard and I have listened to my fair share of Hawk Harrelson. Unfortunately, you can put your comment on the board as he would say.

 

It's also perfectly accurate.

 

If you think that's accurate, then the statement wasn't just stupid, obviously the person typing it is stupid as well.

I know we are all pissed off, so am I. But that was totally uncalled for.

 

You are going to tell me that their was some wise thinking behind his comments? This guy came into the game thread and tried to rile people up and is continuing it now. Either he is a disturber or he is not very smart.

Is it so hard to believe that maybe an intelligent person is just infuriated over horrible baseball and is simply overreacting. I'm not agreeing with a thing he said but what he posts late at night on a message board after watching his favorite team perform horribly in game one of the playoffs should not and can not determine a man's intelligence.

 

I am pissed off and have been pissed off since the grand slam, but as this has sunk in, I think that we all need to come down a bit and not tell others that they shouldn't keep up hope. The truth is that the odds are against every team that makes the playoffs and so now we just have to overcome a little bit more.

[Hall7810]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

I just got back. It wasn't your regular crowd; it was just a bunch of lame people who really didn't seem into the game. Same thing with last year.

 

That's awful and embarassing and should not happen in a flipping playoff game.

 

I'm fortunate enough to have season tickets and on average, I attend 50-60 games a season. These aren't your normal crowds--this really is the highest bidder, I'm there to be seen crowd...at least around me it was.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You are going to tell me that their was some wise thinking behind his comments? This guy came into the game thread and tried to rile people up and is continuing it now. Either he is a disturber or he is not very smart.

Is it so hard to believe that maybe an intelligent person is just infuriated over horrible baseball and is simply overreacting. I'm not agreeing with a thing he said but what he posts late at night on a message board after watching his favorite team perform horribly in game one of the playoffs should not and can not determine a man's intelligence.

 

Hey now, I'm actually quite calm. I'm not going to let a bad postseason format that gives way too strong a chance to inferior teams change my perception of this years' Cubs team.

 

They were the best in the NL, they proved it, and the rest is just a sideshow. I'd like for them to win the sideshow, but I don't need it to validate the season for me.

[mikeyt34]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

I get so sick of hearing arguments like this. We're talking about professional athletes here, not preschoolers playing soccer. If they're really affected that much by the fans being quiet or booing, then frankly they need to find something else to do or somewhere else to play.

 

+1

[big_shooter17]

You are going to tell me that their was some wise thinking behind his comments? This guy came into the game thread and tried to rile people up and is continuing it now. Either he is a disturber or he is not very smart.

Is it so hard to believe that maybe an intelligent person is just infuriated over horrible baseball and is simply overreacting. I'm not agreeing with a thing he said but what he posts late at night on a message board after watching his favorite team perform horribly in game one of the playoffs should not and can not determine a man's intelligence.

 

Hey now, I'm actually quite calm. I'm not going to let a bad postseason format that gives way too strong a chance to inferior teams change my perception of this years' Cubs team.

 

They were the best in the NL, they proved it, and the rest is just a sideshow. I'd like for them to win the sideshow, but I don't need it to validate the season for me.

 

The format sucks and all, but the truth is that we all want a World Series not just a good regular season. Winning in the playoffs is all that matters in American sports, like it or not.

[Guest]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

The crowd can't handle a deficit in the playoffs, they think the 99 years of previous failure are connected to today's performance. Clearly has a major effect on the players.

[JimSorgi]

Am I the only one happy about Big Z starting tomorrow?

[inari]

Am I the only one happy about Big Z starting tomorrow?

 

I don't see any reason to be optimistic about Z. Not saying that nothing good can happen, but there's no real reason to feel happy about it.

[Irrelevant Dude]

They were the best in the NL, they proved it, and the rest is just a sideshow. I'd like for them to win the sideshow, but I don't need it to validate the season for me.

I do. I feel like I make an emotional investment in this team that will only be justified when they finally win the World Series. That is the only thing that can validate a season for me.

[Skyballer]

Am I the only one happy about Big Z starting tomorrow?

Maybe, I am scared more so than if Lilly was pitching. Simply because Lilly is not going to self implode under the pressure.

[IowaCubsFan]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

The crowd can't handle a deficit in the playoffs, they think the 99 years of previous failure are connected to today's performance. Clearly has a major effect on the players.

 

Then those players need to be playing somewhere else, because they're not mentally tough enough to handle the pressure of the playoffs. There are fans of World Series-winning teams that are a hell of a lot harder on their clubs than Cub fans, and it didn't seem to bother those teams.

Edited October 2, 2008 by IowaCubsFan

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

The crowd can't handle a deficit in the playoffs, they think the 99 years of previous failure are connected to today's performance. Clearly has a major effect on the players.

 

I'm going to keep asking this question until I get an answer:

 

How much epic underperformance under how long of a sample has to occur before we accept the fact that even some tiny portion of the things that remain consistent in the organization have an effect? 10 playoff games? 100 playoff games? 1000?

[Irrelevant Dude]

Am I the only one happy about Big Z starting tomorrow?

 

I don't see any reason to be optimistic about Z. Not saying that nothing good can happen, but there's no real reason to feel happy about it.

I'm scared of what we will see from Zambrano tomorrow and I would actually feel most comfortable with Lilly going tomorrow... but let's hope for the best.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They were the best in the NL, they proved it, and the rest is just a sideshow. I'd like for them to win the sideshow, but I don't need it to validate the season for me.

I do. I feel like I make an emotional investment in this team that will only be justified when they finally win the World Series. That is the only thing that can validate a season for me.

 

It'd better be *really* freaking sweet for all the things they've put you through when it finally happens.

[third eye]

I've actually been on board with most of what you've had to say the last two years. And you've provided good statistical reason to be. We are simply not in a place where the sample size of any of these measures can predict a whole lot. Jumping on or off the optimist/pessimist bandwagon just doesn't really do justice to the logical arguments that preceded the post season. Yes, the better players give you the better chance to win, and being down a game in a short series sucks. I just see very little predictive value in the historical precedents when you aggregate series. It's not the same thing.

 

We can wait for THT or BP to do a more detailed analysis, but as I said earlier, math is hard an I can't do that by hand.

 

You are right that we do have a slightly better chance than the average team down 0-1 because we are a superior team to the Dodgers. And while we face a bad matchup tomorrow, we do have three straight pitching matchups that favor us.

 

But the fact of the matter is, the Cubs are not a .750 team in the long run vs. the Dodgers, so there is no reason to expect it now. If we get it, great, but the odds are long.

 

I agree with the fact that over a large sample size, we are not a .750 team against anybody. My only point is that sample sized go out the window in these cases. Hey (sarcasm intended), no team had won three straight games against three different opponents in 3 days before yesterday. I know that this is not the same story, but stats that cite success in that small of a sample size are bound to fail in predictive terms. Yes, the odds are against the Cubs now. But the odds in this circumstance are not that useful in predictive terms.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I've actually been on board with most of what you've had to say the last two years. And you've provided good statistical reason to be. We are simply not in a place where the sample size of any of these measures can predict a whole lot. Jumping on or off the optimist/pessimist bandwagon just doesn't really do justice to the logical arguments that preceded the post season. Yes, the better players give you the better chance to win, and being down a game in a short series sucks. I just see very little predictive value in the historical precedents when you aggregate series. It's not the same thing.

 

We can wait for THT or BP to do a more detailed analysis, but as I said earlier, math is hard an I can't do that by hand.

 

You are right that we do have a slightly better chance than the average team down 0-1 because we are a superior team to the Dodgers. And while we face a bad matchup tomorrow, we do have three straight pitching matchups that favor us.

 

But the fact of the matter is, the Cubs are not a .750 team in the long run vs. the Dodgers, so there is no reason to expect it now. If we get it, great, but the odds are long.

 

I agree with the fact that over a large sample size, we are not a .750 team against anybody. My only point is that sample sized go out the window in these cases. Hey (sarcasm intended), no team had won three straight games against three different opponents in 3 days before yesterday. I know that this is not the same story, but stats that cite success in that small of a sample size are bound to fail in predictive terms. Yes, the odds are against the Cubs now. But the odds in this circumstance are not that useful in predictive terms.

 

What sample are you talking about? We have the entire sample of baseball history to tell us how hard it is to win 3 games out of any four.

[Moises a loo]

Am I the only one happy about Big Z starting tomorrow?

I feel good about Zambrano. I think he wants to prove he should've started tonight.

[IowaCubsFan]

Am I the only one happy about Big Z starting tomorrow?

Maybe, I am scared more so than if Lilly was pitching. Simply because Lilly is not going to self implode under the pressure.

 

Um, yeah.

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/media/photo/2007-10/33009601.jpg

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Am I the only one happy about Big Z starting tomorrow?

I feel good about Zambrano. I think he wants to prove he should've started tonight.

 

We should start our best available starter. That's not Zambrano.

[Smack]

Tonight's game was saddening. I'm optimistic and think tomorrow the Zambrano we love shows up. Tied 1-1 going to LA I'm happy with Harden and Lilly pitching. I've got a ticket to game 5 and if it gets to that point I'll cheer my ass off from the bleachers, well up in center field.

[Skyballer]

Am I the only one happy about Big Z starting tomorrow?

Maybe, I am scared more so than if Lilly was pitching. Simply because Lilly is not going to self implode under the pressure.

 

Um, yeah.

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/media/photo/2007-10/33009601.jpg

Saw it coming a mile away, that was him reacting to a pitch he just made, not the situation in regards to the result of the previous game.

[USSoccer]

I'm going to bring it back to the crowd making a dicey situation a lot worse by acting like they watching a kitten get stabbed all day.

 

If the crowd stays tight like that, the players are going to respond.

 

The crowd can't handle a deficit in the playoffs, they think the 99 years of previous failure are connected to today's performance. Clearly has a major effect on the players.

 

I'm going to keep asking this question until I get an answer:

 

How much epic underperformance under how long of a sample has to occur before we accept the fact that even some tiny portion of the things that remain consistent in the organization have an effect? 10 playoff games? 100 playoff games? 1000?

 

I think the effect it has on the crowd bleeds over into the players pressing.

 

And as far as the whole "They are professionals" thing...yes, yes they are, but they are still human, and seeing fans who for 6 months are easily the best in baseball clam up at the first sign of adversity is going to have an affect on you. There's already pressure on them, and that just adds to it. I refuse to accept that it doesn't.

[illiniguy]

All these guys with their math. Who cares what math says? We should have never beaten the Rockies and Brewers this year, but we did. We still have the better team, math be damned. Just win one game at a time. Edited October 2, 2008 by illiniguy

[Moises a loo]

Am I the only one happy about Big Z starting tomorrow?

I feel good about Zambrano. I think he wants to prove he should've started tonight.

 

We should start our best available starter. That's not Zambrano.

 

Gee thanks Mr. Wizard