Reassurance Thread

[imb]

Yeah, I'm worried because there's no one on this team I trust to produce offensively in this lineup. I feel like Soto, Ramirez, DeRosa, maybe Edmonds could do okay, I expect ****-all from Lee and especially Fukudome and Soriano.

 

Would anyone be surprised if the Cubs lost every playoff game 3-1, 4-2, 3-0, 4-1, that sort of thing? Anyone going to be surprised by the "(fill in the blank pitcher) was nasty tonight?" topics like there was last year for Webb and Doug Davis (even when I still think they weren't).

 

Why would you expect more out of Edmonds than Soriano?

 

soriano

1.250 ops against sabathia in 35 abs

.960 against escobar in 36

1.108 in 28 against chris carpenter

1.235 in 17 against danny haren

1.600 in 12 against jake peavy

2.455 in 9 against erik bedard

 

 

most batters suck against good pitching ... that's why they're called good pitchers.

[badnews]

He looks a lot worse against good pitching than other hitters who hang around a .900 OPS. I'm not sure I can think of any .900ish OPS hitters I would expect less out of in the playoffs. Maybe Vlad Guerrero because he always sucks in the playoffs.

 

Anyway, if after the playoffs you don't see Soriano look awful on at *least* 5 breaking pitches low and away come here and let me know. I just have not seen any .900ish OPS hitter swing at those pitches so frequently. It's like he has no self control on those low and away breaking pitches.

 

So it seems like in the playoffs, when the stakes are higher, such things will be more fully exploited.

[imb]

He looks a lot worse against good pitching than other hitters who hang around a .900 OPS. I'm not sure I can think of any .900ish OPS hitters I would expect less out of in the playoffs. Maybe Vlad Guerrero because he always sucks in the playoffs.

 

Anyway, if after the playoffs you don't see Soriano look awful on at *least* 5 breaking pitches low and away come here and let me know. I just have not seen any .900ish OPS hitter swing at those pitches so frequently. It's like he has no self control on those low and away breaking pitches.

 

So it seems like in the playoffs, when the stakes are higher, such things will be more fully exploited.

 

you've been watching the cubs all year; you haven't seen a 900 ops hitter

 

youre trying too hard to be negative

[17 Seconds]

He looks a lot worse against good pitching than other hitters who hang around a .900 OPS. I'm not sure I can think of any .900ish OPS hitters I would expect less out of in the playoffs. Maybe Vlad Guerrero because he always sucks in the playoffs.

 

Anyway, if after the playoffs you don't see Soriano look awful on at *least* 5 breaking pitches low and away come here and let me know. I just have not seen any .900ish OPS hitter swing at those pitches so frequently. It's like he has no self control on those low and away breaking pitches.

 

So it seems like in the playoffs, when the stakes are higher, such things will be more fully exploited.

 

Okay, so what NL offense(s) do you trust in the playoffs?

[wvcbxl]

Okay, so what NL offense(s) do you trust in the playoffs?

 

DBR ?

Proven winners, dude. :hello:

[C.C.]

Where's the new update of our current position?!?

[CubsBears29]

Ask and you shall receive CC; here's the update (as I figure it);

 

In order for people to understand our current position, I present the following, which I'll update after each game:

 

Division:

 

If the Cubs go 0-23, the Brewers need to go 5-19 to tie, 6-18 to win

If the Cubs go 5-18, the Brewers need to go 10-14 to tie, 11-13 to win

If the Cubs go 10-13, the Brewers need to go 15-9 to tie, 16-8 to win

If the Cubs go 11-12, the Brewers need to go 16-8 to tie, 17-7 to win

If the Cubs go 12-11, the Brewers need to go 17-7 to tie, 18-6 to win

If the Cubs go 13-10, the Brewers need to go 18-6 to tie, 19-5 to win

If the Cubs go 14-9, the Brewers need to go 19-5 to tie, 20-4 to win

If the Cubs go 15-8, the Brewers need to go 20-4 to tie, 21-3 to win

If the Cubs go 16-7, the Brewers need to go 21-3 to tie, 22-2 to win

If the Cubs go 17-6, the Brewers need to go 22-2 to tie, 23-1 to win

If the Cubs go 18-5, the Brewers need to go 23-1 to tie, 24-0 to win

If the Cubs go 19-4, the Brewers need to go 24-0 to tie, Cannon win outright

If the Cubs go 20-3, or better, the Brewers eliminated from all forms of divisional contention

 

 

For the WC:

 

If the Cubs go 0-23, the Phillies need to go 9-14 to tie, 10-13 to win

If the Cubs go 5-18, the Phillies need to go 14-9 to tie, 15-8 to win

If the Cubs go 10-13, the Phillies need to go 19-4 to tie, 20-3 to win

If the Cubs go 11-12, the Phillies need to go 20-3 to tie, 21-2 to win

If the Cubs go 12-11, the Phillies need to go 21-2 to tie, 22-1 to win

If the Cubs go 13-10, the Phillies need to go 22-1 to tie, 23-0 to win

If the Cubs go 14-9, the Phillies need to go 23-0 to tie, Cannot win outright

If the Cubs go 15-8, the Phillies need to win the East to go to the playoffs

 

 

Go Cubs!

[Ski]

I know some people are panicking (unless that panic has worn off) so I'll try my best to reassure everyone. Going into yesterday's game, Cubs still had a 99.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. BP postseason odds haven't updated yet, but I doubt it dropped much, if at all. Also, please don't assume that just because we're on a four game skid means we're going to go 1-22 (exaggeration) for the rest of the season. Every game is a new game. We've been facing good pitching, and a lot of things went wrong in the Backe game. The offense showed signs of waking up last night, and we have our ace going tonight. I expect the offense to put up another good showing, and Dempster to pitch well. Cubs will win 6-1. Remember that it would take both a great collase by the Cubs and a couple great runs by the Brewers and Phillies to keep the Cubs out of October. So let's just relax, okay?

[bcl412]

I know some people are panicking (unless that panic has worn off) so I'll try my best to reassure everyone. Going into yesterday's game, Cubs still had a 99.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. BP postseason odds haven't updated yet, but I doubt it dropped much, if at all. Also, please don't assume that just because we're on a four game skid means we're going to go 1-22 (exaggeration) for the rest of the season. Every game is a new game. We've been facing good pitching, and a lot of things went wrong in the Backe game. The offense showed signs of waking up last night, and we have our ace going tonight. I expect the offense to put up another good showing, and Dempster to pitch well. Cubs will win 6-1. Remember that it would take both a great collase by the Cubs and a couple great runs by the Brewers and Phillies to keep the Cubs out of October. So let's just relax, okay?

 

Not only would the Phils have to get hot, they'd probably pass the Mets so the Mets would have to get hot also. And I don't think the Cards have a hot streak in them so no need to worry about them.

[Cynosure]

Oh noes panic mode... Astros are going to be the WC now!

[Sorianos hop]

Not worried. Thanks for the reassurace stats though.

[CubinNY]

Every time the Brewers lose they are one game close to being eliminated from the NL Central Title. The only way they can catch the Cubs is to win when the Cubs lose. They cannot catch the Cubs no matter what else they do.

 

This sort of thing happens to almost every team.

[CubsBears29]

Cubs just lost 5th straight, but the magic numbers are still rattling off (as I figure it);

 

In order for people to understand our current position, I present the following, which I'll update after each game:

 

Division:

 

If the Cubs go 0-22, the Brewers need to go 5-18 to tie, 6-17 to win

If the Cubs go 5-17, the Brewers need to go 10-13 to tie, 11-12 to win

If the Cubs go 8-14, the Brewers need to go 13-10 to tie, 14-9 to win

If the Cubs go 9-13, the Brewers need to go 14-9 to tie, 15-8 to win

If the Cubs go 10-12, the Brewers need to go 15-8 to tie, 16-7 to win

If the Cubs go 11-11, the Brewers need to go 16-7 to tie, 17-6 to win

If the Cubs go 12-10, the Brewers need to go 17-6 to tie, 18-5 to win

If the Cubs go 13-9, the Brewers need to go 18-5 to tie, 19-4 to win

If the Cubs go 14-8, the Brewers need to go 19-4 to tie, 20-3 to win

If the Cubs go 15-7, the Brewers need to go 20-3 to tie, 21-2 to win

If the Cubs go 16-6, the Brewers need to go 21-2 to tie, 22-1 to win

If the Cubs go 17-5, the Brewers need to go 22-1 to tie, 23-0 to win

If the Cubs go 18-4, the Brewers need to go 23-0 to tie, Cannot win outright

If the Cubs go 19-3, or better, the Brewers eliminated from all forms of divisional contention

 

 

For the WC:

 

If the Cubs go 0-22, the Phillies need to go 9-13 to tie, 10-12 to win

If the Cubs go 5-17, the Phillies need to go 14-8 to tie, 15-7 to win

If the Cubs go 10-12, the Phillies need to go 19-3 to tie, 20-2 to win

If the Cubs go 11-11, the Phillies need to go 20-2 to tie, 21-1 to win

If the Cubs go 12-10, the Phillies need to go 21-1 to tie, 22-0 to win

If the Cubs go 13-9, the Phillies need to go 22-0 to tie, Cannot win outright

If the Cubs go 14-8, the Phillies need to win the East to go to the playoffs

 

 

Go Cubs!

[CubsBears29]

Are the Cubs & Brewers attempting to recreate last year's "thrilling & dramatic" NL Central race?? /sarcasm

 

One team has lost 5 in a row and the other just lost its 4th straight; all 9 losses coming at their respective home fields.

 

Either way... keep losing MIL, just in case... that Magic Number just keeps getting smaller. :good:

 

In order for people to understand our current position, I present the following, which I'll update after each game:

 

Division:

 

If the Cubs go 0-22, the Brewers need to go 5-17 to tie, 6-16 to win

If the Cubs go 5-17, the Brewers need to go 10-12 to tie, 11-11 to win

If the Cubs go 8-14, the Brewers need to go 13-9 to tie, 14-8 to win

If the Cubs go 9-13, the Brewers need to go 14-8 to tie, 15-7 to win

If the Cubs go 10-12, the Brewers need to go 15-7 to tie, 16-6 to win

If the Cubs go 11-11, the Brewers need to go 16-6 to tie, 17-5 to win

If the Cubs go 12-10, the Brewers need to go 17-5 to tie, 18-4 to win

If the Cubs go 13-9, the Brewers need to go 18-4 to tie, 19-3 to win

If the Cubs go 14-8, the Brewers need to go 19-3 to tie, 20-2 to win

If the Cubs go 15-7, the Brewers need to go 20-2 to tie, 21-1 to win

If the Cubs go 16-6, the Brewers need to go 21-1 to tie, 22-0 to win

If the Cubs go 17-5, the Brewers need to go 22-0 to tie, Cannot win outright

If the Cubs go 18-4, or better, the Brewers eliminated from all forms of divisional contention

 

 

For the WC:

 

If the Cubs go 0-22, the Phillies need to go 9-13 to tie, 10-12 to win

If the Cubs go 5-17, the Phillies need to go 14-8 to tie, 15-7 to win

If the Cubs go 10-12, the Phillies need to go 19-3 to tie, 20-2 to win

If the Cubs go 11-11, the Phillies need to go 20-2 to tie, 21-1 to win

If the Cubs go 12-10, the Phillies need to go 21-1 to tie, 22-0 to win

If the Cubs go 13-9, the Phillies need to go 22-0 to tie, Cannot win outright

If the Cubs go 14-8, the Phillies need to win the East to go to the playoffs

 

 

Go Cubs!

[rocket]

when we're hot, the brewers are hot. when we suck, the brewers suck.

 

i guess that's a positive. the head to head matchups will be the key.

[C.C.]

when we're hot, the brewers are hot. when we suck, the brewers suck.

 

i guess that's a positive. the head to head matchups will be the key.

 

 

All we have to do is split the series. The pressure is on the Brewers, they have to sweep or at worst take the series.

[SouthSideRyan]

when we're hot, the brewers are hot. when we suck, the brewers suck.

 

i guess that's a positive. the head to head matchups will be the key.

 

 

All we have to do is split the series. The pressure is on the Brewers, they have to sweep or at worst take the series.

 

The split is the key. The split means Milwaukee needs to beat us outright in order to win the division. It also knocks 6 games off the schedule with nothing lost. Milwaukee isn't making up 6 games in the standings over those other 16 games.

 

Based on that, I'll say a 9-13 finish does it as long as we split with the Brewers.

[CubsBears29]

when we're hot, the brewers are hot. when we suck, the brewers suck.

 

i guess that's a positive. the head to head matchups will be the key.

 

 

All we have to do is split the series. The pressure is on the Brewers, they have to sweep or at worst take the series.

 

The split is the key. The split means Milwaukee needs to beat us outright in order to win the division. It also knocks 6 games off the schedule with nothing lost. Milwaukee isn't making up 6 games in the standings over those other 16 games.

 

Based on that, I'll say a 9-13 finish does it as long as we split with the Brewers.

 

Let's make it 11-11 - splitting the series vs MIL, at worst - and pretty much end all doubt.

 

2 of 3 in Cincy

1 of 3 in St Louis

2 of 3 in Houston

2 of 3 vs Milwaukee

2 of 3 vs St Louis

2 of 4/1 of 4 in New York

1 of 3 in Milwaukee

 

That would put as at 11-11/12-10. Should be attainable unless this current bad streak of play continues.

 

If we're 96-63 going into that last 3-game set in Milwaukee, the Brewers will have to have went at least 13-6 [93-66] in the same timespan, to make that series mean anything in terms of the division and HFA. MIL still has 4 games @ Philly, 3 @ Cincy, and 6 vs the Cubs in their remaining 22. There's a foreseeable 6-8 losses in those games [2 or 3 in Philly, 1 in Cincy, and 3 or 4 vs the Cubs].

 

4 @ PHI, 3 @ CHC, & 3 @ CIN is the road trip staring the Brewers in the face after finishing up this 10-game home stand they are on - of which they are off to an 0-4 start - starting a week from tonight (Thur), on 9/11.

[DivineBovine]

We can easily lose the division, we would have to really suck to lose a playoff spot.

 

Look at the schedule. With the exception of Cinci, there are no bad teams. We cannot pad our wins with teams that sucked all year and then traded away all their good players at the trading deadline. Sorry. There will be no gimme wins, and no Z or Harden for a while. Milwaukee has been pretty good at beating teams they should beat, and if they hold their own against us head to head, they can easily take the central.

 

If we don't make the playoffs, I'll be shocked and I think I won't be disappointed, because if we somehow piss the playoffs away, we weren't going anywhere anyways.

[CubsBears29]

Another small reassurance; other than the Angels (thanks to the division they call "home"), the Cubs have the smallest Magic Number of all the other divisions.

 

Angels (6) - AL West

-------------------------------

Cubs (18) - NL Central

NYM (20) - NL East

Tampa Bay (21) - AL East

Arizona (22) - NL West

ChiWS (22) - AL Central

 

 

Wild Card Magic Numbers for Division Leaders:

 

Cubs (14)

Tampa (15)

Angels (21)

*NYM (24) [22]

*ChiWS (26) [23]

*Arizona (32) [23]

 

* - indicates the Magic Number is larger than the number of games the team has remaining on its schedule, [xx] is games remaining

[BCVM22]

The reassurance thread is not reassuring me. :|

[manbearcub]

The reassurance thread is not reassuring me. :|

 

 

If the Cubs go 10-12, the Phillies need to go 19-3 to tie, 20-2 to win

[CubsBears29]

The reassurance thread is not reassuring me. :|

 

Let me paint this in whatever light people want to see me in... but until the Cubs put a W on the board, someone else can take the up the mantle of updating those numbers. 6 in a row, and 4 of those coming vs HOU and 1 @ Cincy??

 

Thank the Lord Above that we had that 25-6 stretch before this big skid.

[Derwood]

The reassurance thread is not reassuring me. :|

 

Let me paint this in whatever light people want to see me in... but until the Cubs put a W on the board, someone else can take the up the mantle of updating those numbers. 6 in a row, and 4 of those coming vs HOU and 1 @ Cincy??

 

Thank the Lord Above that we had that 25-6 stretch before this big skid.

 

no, 2 to PHI, 3 to HOU, and 1 to CIN

[CubsBears29]

The reassurance thread is not reassuring me. :|

 

Let me paint this in whatever light people want to see me in... but until the Cubs put a W on the board, someone else can take the up the mantle of updating those numbers. 6 in a row, and 4 of those coming vs HOU and 1 @ Cincy??

 

Thank the Lord Above that we had that 25-6 stretch before this big skid.

 

no, 2 to PHI, 3 to HOU, and 1 to CIN

 

I can stomach losing 2 (of 4) to PHI... but 3 straight to HOU and getting blown out @ Cincy, in a game going in we knew we had just lost 5 straight and the playoff spot not clinched?