Where will guys start next season at? (Full Season Rosters)

[Guest]

So Jeremy Papelbon opens another season in AA, meanwhile, Ed Campusano, who clearly has no future with this organization is in Iowa.

 

Beyond what Illini Iceman said about Papelbon's stuff in relation to getting big league hitters out (which I agree with), Jeremy Papelbon has never thrown a pitch at AA or higher.

 

He has a higher upside than Campusano, whose already been rule 5d and sent back. Hes seemingly been with the organization for 12 years now. Papelbon isnt getting any younger either so he should at least get the chance to see what he can do at AAA. Its not like giving a guy a shot at AAA is a big time investment.

 

Papelbon should try out AA before he goes to AAA.

 

And Campusano has better stuff (but the injury history and poor control). It's not a slam dunk that a guy who throws 10 mph slower and is just 1 year younger has higher upside.

[Guest]

Per AZ Phil, this was Iowa's lineup last night in Tempe:

 

Arizona Phil / The Cub Reporter[/url]"]LINEUP:

1. Sam Fuld, CF: 0-5 (4-3, 6-3, P-6, P-5, 3-U)

2. Luis Rivas, 2B: 1-3 (1B, BB, Ks, 6-4-3 DP)

3. Bobby Scales, 3B: 1-3 (BB, Ks, 6-3, 1B)

4. Jake Fox, 1B: 0-4 (FC, FP-3, F-7, Ks)

5a. Jason Dubois, LF: 0-3 (Ks, Ks, 5-3)

5b. Richie Robnett, LF: 0-1 (P-6)

6. Doug Deeds, RF: 2-4 (Ks, SOLO HR, Ks, 2B)

7a. Welington Castillo, C: 1-2 (2B, 4-3, BB + R)

7b. Chris Robinson, C: 0-1 (4-3)

8. Kyle Reynolds, DH:1-4 (1-3, F-9, TWO-RUN HR, Ks)

9. Matt Camp, SS: 1-3 (BB, L-7, 1B, 2-3)

 

PITCHERS:

1. Jesse Estrada - 3.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R (3 ER), 3 BB, 2 K, 1 WP, 1 HR (61 pitches - 33 strikes, 0/6 GO/FO)

2. Brian Schlitter - 2.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, (1 ER), 0 BB, 3 K (30 pitches - 18 strikes, 1/1 GO/FO)

3. Justin Berg - 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R (1 ER), 1 BB, 2 K (19 pitches - 11 strikes)

4. Jeff Stevens - 0.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R (2 ER), 1 BB, 1 K (24 pitches - 12 strikes)

 

And Brandon Guyer hit a home run for the AA squad.

[Guest]

Subject to change at any time (because rosters at Minor League Camp are altered almost daily), Robinson Chirinos is presently one of the three catchers with the AA (Tennessee) squad (Steve Clevenger and Blake Lalli are the other two).

 

Welington Castillo at AAA, Mark Reed at A+?

[Wrigley Rat]

You have Cashner at both Peoria and Daytona. Are you saying he goes EST to Peoria then Daytona or is that a typo? Seems like they'd want to fast track Cashner if they can and start him at Daytona and hope he earns AA by midseason.

Whoops - good catch - someone would need to take his place at Peoria.

[Wrigley Rat]

Parker was chosen by the Cubs out of Arkansas in the 16th round in 2006 and flopped as a hitter. The right-hander was converted into a reliever and was 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA and nine saves at Daytona to resurrect his career. He could be Sandberg's closer.

http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/yb/128178696

 

Purely conjecture, but some other opinions as to who will start the year with Tennessee.

[Wrigley Rat]

Final Predictions: Catchers, Infielders, Outfielders, Starting Pitchers, Relief Pitchers

 

Chicago:

Geovany Soto

Koyie Hill

 

Derrek Lee

Mike Fontenot

Ryan Theriot

Aramis Ramirez

Aaron Miles

Micah Hoffpauir

 

Alfonso Soriano

Kosuke Fukudome

Milton Bradley

Reed Johnson

Joey Gathright

 

Carlos Zambrano

Ryan Dempster

Ted Lilly

Rich Harden

Sean Marshall

 

Kevin Gregg

Carlos Marmol

Aaron Heilman

Neal Cotts

David Patton

Luis Vizcaino

Angel Guzman/Chad Fox (if Guzman can't be traded)

DL - Chad Gaudin (or traded/released)

 

Iowa:

Welington Castillo

Chris Robinson

 

Jake Fox

Nate Spears

Andres Blanco

Bobby Scales

Esteban German

Kyle Reynolds

 

Brad Snyder

Sam Fuld

Doug Deeds

Jason Dubois

 

Jeff Samardzija

Mitch Atkins

Esmailin Caridad

Randy Wells

J.R. Mathes

 

Kevin Hart

Jeff Stevens

Jason Waddell

Jose Ascanio

Justin Berg

Ed Campusano

Chad Fox (if he doesn't make Chicago)/Rocky Roquet (DL or released - has had a bad spring)

 

Tennessee:

Steve Clevenger

Luis Bautista (would be skipping a level, but seems to be a better fit than Mark Reed) (can also play 1B)

 

Blake Lalli (can be a backup catcher)

Tony Thomas

Darwin Barney

Marquez Smith

Justin Sellers

Matt Camp (backup CF too)

 

Russell Canzler

James Aducci

Ty Wright

Richie Robnett

 

Jeremy Papelbon

James Russell

Hung-Wen Chen

Marco Carrillo

Jesse Estrada (could be released when Muldowney returns)

DL - Bill Muldowney

 

Marcos Mateo

Brian Schlitter

Casey Lambert

Alex Maestri

Jayson Ruhlman

Greg Reinhard

Todd Blackford

 

Daytona:

Mark Reed

Shawn McGill

Luis Flores

 

Ryan Keedy

Nathan Samson

Ryan Flaherty

Jovan Rosa

Jake Opitz

Sean Hoorelbeke

 

Brandon Guyer

Tony Campana

Dylan Johnston

Tyler Colvin

 

Aaron Shafer

Jay Jackson

Robert Hernandez

Casey Coleman

Al Albuquerque

DL - Andrew Cashner

 

Hank Williamson

John Gaub

Blake Parker

Steven Vento

Jordan Latham

Jake Muyco

Craig Muschko

 

Peoria:

Carlos Perez

Michael Brenly

John Contreras (backup 1B)

 

Rebel Ridling

Josh Harrison

Starlin Castro

Josh Vitters

Marwin Gonzalez

Jonathan Mota

 

Drew Rundle

Nelson Perez

Kyler Burke

Jericho Jones

 

Rafael Dolis

Justin Bristow

Chris Carpenter

Jose Pina

Josh Whitlock

DL - Dae-Eun Rhee

 

Dan McDaniel

Andres Quezada

Chris Archer

David Cales

Luke Sommer

Ryan Buchter

Jeff Beliveau (could be anyone in this last spot!)

[craig]

Thanks for the list, Wrigley. Good speculation.

 

Obviously the lower you get, the more speculative. And everything hinges on injuries.

 

Some thoughts where my expectation differs a bit:

 

1. I expect that Chris Archer will be pitching rotation, whether at Peoria or daytona. I think they scouted his stuff pretty favorably. While it's doubtful that his control will improve enough to pitch big-league rotation, I think they'll keep giving him the opportunity and the innings for at least a while longer.

 

2. I was under the impression that Bristow had some kind of surgery. I'll be surprised (pleasantly) if he appears on any full-season rotation this summer.

 

3. Muldowny also had surgery, just recently. Not sure how invasive that needed to be. But I wouldn't expect to see him before summertime, and then probably in Arizona first.

[Guest]

2. I was under the impression that Bristow had some kind of surgery. I'll be surprised (pleasantly) if he appears on any full-season rotation this summer.

 

Justin Bristow left Boise in late July last season with elbow stiffness and never resurfaced. But thus far, I haven't seen any news seep out about offseason surgery.

 

3. Muldowny also had surgery, just recently. Not sure how invasive that needed to be. But I wouldn't expect to see him before summertime, and then probably in Arizona first.

 

Muldowney had elbow bone spur surgery about a month ago and is expected to miss most of 2009.

[Guest]

The Knoxville News-Sentinel makes some guesses on the Tennessee roster (not too many surprises here). Nick Gates thinks the double play combo will be Tony Thomas and Darwin Barney. He also thinks Steve Clevenger and Blake Lalli will be the catchers and Jim Adduci will be one of the outfielders.

 

On Cashner:

 

Andrew Cashner, Chicago's No. 1 pick - 19th overall - out of Texas Christian, sustained an injury during training camp and is behind. The former college closer could start the season in Daytona, but the wait would be worth it for Tennessee fans. The Cubs spent $1.5 million on the 6-foot-5 right-hander who touched 99 mph with his fastball last season.

 

Gates speculates that the opening rotation could include Jay Jackson, James Russell, Alex Maestri and Jeremy Papelbon. On Jay Jackson:

 

"He could skip a level," Fleita said.

 

He also goes with Casey Lambert, Marcos Mateo and Blake Parker in the pen (Parker as closer).

 

Really, the only surprises he mentions would be Jackson starting the season with Tennessee. And Maestri starting.

[wvcbxl]

And Maestri starting.

 

I found that surprising too, since I thought that idea had been abandoned.

I'll believe it when I see it though.

 

For those who understand a bit of Italian, Alessandro has a blog 8-)

[Guest]

I don't know how much info the Smokies beat writer would have at his disposal but I can't imagine he's privy to too much before the Smokies actually show up in Kodak - especially with a week more before rosters are officially set.

[Wrigley Rat]

Thanks for the list, Wrigley. Good speculation.

 

Obviously the lower you get, the more speculative. And everything hinges on injuries.

 

Some thoughts where my expectation differs a bit:

 

1. I expect that Chris Archer will be pitching rotation, whether at Peoria or daytona. I think they scouted his stuff pretty favorably. While it's doubtful that his control will improve enough to pitch big-league rotation, I think they'll keep giving him the opportunity and the innings for at least a while longer.

 

2. I was under the impression that Bristow had some kind of surgery. I'll be surprised (pleasantly) if he appears on any full-season rotation this summer.

 

3. Muldowny also had surgery, just recently. Not sure how invasive that needed to be. But I wouldn't expect to see him before summertime, and then probably in Arizona first.

Thanks Craig -

Archer in the rotation would definitely make some sense with how high the Cubs are on him - not sure why I've had him earmarked for the pen so solidly. I wasn't aware of Bristow's injury, so that does change things quite a bit. I knew Muldowney would be out for awhile, but didn't know it would probably be the whole season. Good info everyone!

[Guest]

1. I expect that Chris Archer will be pitching rotation, whether at Peoria or daytona. I think they scouted his stuff pretty favorably. While it's doubtful that his control will improve enough to pitch big-league rotation, I think they'll keep giving him the opportunity and the innings for at least a while longer.

 

I hope Archer starts in Daytona. The control was bad but he did get 8.3 K/9 and a sub 4.5 ERA at low-A Lake County. He'd benefit more from going to high-A than repeating at low-A.

[craig]

1. I expect that Chris Archer will be pitching rotation, whether at Peoria or daytona. I think they scouted his stuff pretty favorably. While it's doubtful that his control will improve enough to pitch big-league rotation, I think they'll keep giving him the opportunity and the innings for at least a while longer.

 

I hope Archer starts in Daytona. The control was bad but he did get 8.3 K/9 and a sub 4.5 ERA at low-A Lake County. He'd benefit more from going to high-A than repeating at low-A.

 

Not to quibble, but just to share a perspective. I don't think it matters much whether he's in A+ or A-, in terms of his development. He'll play all season at age 20, and for a kid who walked 84 guys in 115 innings, I think it's safe to assume it's going to be a number of years before he's contributing in the majors regardless of whether he opens at A- or A+. Unless he has an extraordinary progression he's going to be doing some level-repeating sooner or later.

 

The plate is the same distance and the same shape whether he's in A- or A+. His actual improvement depends on him; can he locate his pitches more consistently or not? That's independent of whether it's an A- or A+ hitter standing in the box facing him. So to large degree, I really don't care at all which level he begins at.

 

Well, I'd rather Daytona. Because we're thin on A+/AA-appropriate pitchers, so I'd rather he started there and there was an opportunity for somebody to emerge at Peoria. If Suarez or Antigua or Belliview or I can't guess who is able to start and succeed at Peoria because Archer is starting and succeeding at Daytona instead, fabulous. And if Archer does start at Daytona, that would be good in that it would probably imply that he looked reasonably favorable in camp (good). If he promotes to Daytona and iimproves his numbers, that will also obviously be better proof of progress than if he simply improves his numbers at Peoria.

 

But as for Archer's actual development, I think it's probably independent of A level. If he's got it in him to get better, he'll get better regardless of which level. And if he doesn't, he'll be too wild a wildman regardless of level.

 

Caveat: I do sometimes think level matters for pitchers, in a case-by-case way. If a guy needs to work on his offspeed stuff, placing him either too high or too low can be a problem. (Too high a level: my breaking stuff and change are getting killed; I'll just throw fastballs= bad for development. Too low a level: I'm dominating here, I'm great as is, I don't need to work on anything = bad for development. Or, I can dominate here with my fastball, why mess around with this lousy change? = bad for development.) Likewise depending on personality, level can matter. Some guys need to be challenged and get bored if they are succeeding too easily; other guys need confidence and are damaged if they are getting roughed up too much.

[Wrigley Rat]

Arizona Phil weighs in:

WRIGLEY RAT: Brad Snyder can definitely play CF. He has plus-speed (especially for a big guy) and can cover a lot of ground, and he has an outstanding arm (he made a throw yesterday on the fly from in front of thc warning track in straight-away CF to 3B). He also has plus power. Very toolsy guy. But he's not a very good hitter. Lots & lots of swings & misses. He looks confused a lot of times when at bat. He appears to be the type of athlete where maybe baseball wasn't his first sport (reminds me a bit of when Michael Jordan decided he wanted to play baseball).

 

Depending on whether So Taguchi accepts an assignment at AAA, I would say the Iowa startimg outfield will be Deeds-Fuld-Snyder LF-CF-RF, with Taguchi as the 4th OF. Otherwise, Dubois could make the squad as a 1B-LF (but I think he will will probably get released) or Bobby Scales (who appears to be in decline) as a multi-positional 3B-2B-1B-LF-RF. Also, Jake Fox should get some reps in LF (the more I see him play 1B, the more I think he can't play there, either).

 

The starting infield should be Fox-Spears-Blanco-Reynolds 1B-2B-SS-3B, with Esteban German and Luis Rivas the back-ups (Reynolds should play some 1B, too). And then Welington Castillo & Mark Johnson should be the catchers (Jake Fox is still the emergency 3rd catcher), with Shawn McGill probably assigned to Daytona and Chris Robinson released .

 

Matt Matulia is still on the Iowa roster and he travels with the squad, but he has been the 1st base coach lately. I suspect the Cubs wil deactivate him by plaing him on the minor league 7-day inactive/DL list, and keep him around as a player-coach (coaching intern) as they have in the past with Casey Kopitzke and Issmael Salas and others. Matulia and I-Cubs Manager Bobby Dickerson have a good relationship, and Matulia is the type of guy the Cubs might project as a future minor league manager or instructor.

 

The Cubs like to have one "organizational player" (in other words, somebody making less than $20,000) at AA or AAA signed to a player contract who can be reactivated short-term in case an infielder or outfielder at Iowa or Tennessee goes down with a relatively minor injury, so that they don't need to go out and sign a free-agent just for a week or two. This player takes BP and fielding practice, but otherwise is not active and is used as a 1st base coach until he's needed.

 

BTW, the position players at Tennessee will probably be Wright-Robnett-Adduci LF-CF-RF, Canzler-Thomas-Barney-M. Smith 1B-2B-SS-3B, with Justin Sellers (2B-SS-3B) and Matt Camp (2B-SS-OF) the utility guys. And then Blake Lalli (C-1B-3B), Robinson Chirinos (C-2B-3B), and Steve Clevenger (C-1B) will allternate at catcher. The one "wild card" is OF Brandon Guyer, who could get jumped all the way from Boise to AA, but might get squeezed out by the roster crunch at Tennessee and end up at Daytona. But Guyer is now a Top 10 prospect in my book. He reminds me a lot of Eric Byrnes.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/2009/04/01/i-cubs-get-thumped-river-cats#comment-129098

[Guest]

Good to see Smith in Tennessee.

 

By the way, AZ Phil is wrong on Guyer. He was at Peoria last season, not Boise.

[Guest]

http://cubs.scout.com/2/852953.html

 

Rhee ahead of schedule, might make a team by the end of May or early June.

[Wrigley Rat]

http://cubs.scout.com/2/852953.html

 

Rhee ahead of schedule, might make a team by the end of May or early June.

Anything else of interest from that article? I haven't subscribed to that one, but respect Steve Holley's notes.

[Guest]

http://cubs.scout.com/2/852953.html

 

Rhee ahead of schedule, might make a team by the end of May or early June.

Anything else of interest from that article? I haven't subscribed to that one, but respect Steve Holley's notes.

 

Lee is expected to recover from TJS in time to join one of the short-season teams. You already saw that Gian Guzman was converted to pitcher.

 

And this quote:

 

Fleita was asked to sum up the overall state of the Cubs’ system in a few words.

 

“I’m real happy with our pitching,” he said. “I think we’ve got a few catchers in the pipeline, and I think we’re starting to become a little more athletic with some of our players … the Junior Lake’s, the Ryan Flaherty’s, the Marwin Gonzalez’s and the Starlin Castro's. I think we’re starting to become a little more athletic with some of our players … the Junior Lake’s, the Ryan Flaherty’s, the Marwin Gonzalez’s and the Starlin Castro’s. I’d like to see us become a little more athletic in the outfield. That’s where I would have us at a low point.”

[Wrigley Rat]

Thanks! Interesting to hear Marwin Gonzalez' name mixed in with Lake, Castro, and Flaherty. I know Gonzalez had a nice winter, but didn't know if that was real or a fluke.

[Guest]

I don't like the thought of Adduci blocking Guyer if he belongs at AA.

[craig]

cal, I also don't pay for Holley's material. How expensive is that, and is it pretty good? I'd also appreciate highlight info from there. (Or feedback on how worthwhile it might be to pay, for a guy on a very tight budget...)

 

Wrigley and cal, thanks for a lot of interesting info. The farm rosters and who pitches rotation is always really interesting with some surprises.

 

Glad to hear Guzman is switching to pitching, couldn't hit. Glad to hear Marwin Gonzalez mentioned in the "athletic" class. When guys are tabbed as athletic, then if they ever hit I can take them seriously.

 

Guyer seems to have had a good spring, that's very encouraging. I hope it carries over into the actual year. Phil mentions having him in his top-10 at this point. If he starts at AA, that would be pretty impressive, would mean he's had a strong spring, and then if he produces you'd know you've got a prospect. But I don't have a problem with him at Daytona.... as long as he produces there.

 

Stunned to see Latham released, obviously not based on performance. (1.98 ERA last year with peripherals that were similarly intriguing.) That Acosta was off-field stuff was pretty obvious from the start.

 

Fleita is gush, so having him talk optimistically about the pitching may not mean much, but it's still encouraging. His comment about lack of athleticism in the outfield, that's pretty obvious.

 

No real surprises in Phil's forecast for the AA/AAA rosters. If Guyer were to make it, that would be the fun surprise. The other surprise, which is not a surprise at this point, is Castillo at Iowa. Given the spring he's had it's no longer a surprise; but if you'd asked me back in December, I'd almost certainly have assumed that he'd be opening at AA again.

 

That provides a nice opportunity for Clevenger. With Castillo at AA, Clevenger would have had limited AA work. But now he'll have the chance to be the primary catcher and catch as much as his performance merits.

 

Obviously most of AA/AAA positions are roster-fillers, not a lot of surprises or suspense there. The A assignments and the rotation assignments will probably have more surprises.

[TruffleShuffle]

guyer is one of the few cub prospects that i find interesting.

[Wrigley Rat]

The other surprise, which is not a surprise at this point, is Castillo at Iowa. Given the spring he's had it's no longer a surprise; but if you'd asked me back in December, I'd almost certainly have assumed that he'd be opening at AA again.

 

That provides a nice opportunity for Clevenger. With Castillo at AA, Clevenger would have had limited AA work. But now he'll have the chance to be the primary catcher and catch as much as his performance merits.

I think that is the only real reason Castillo is in AAA. I had him tentatively pegged to go to AA again, but Clevenger deserves a bunch of AB's at catcher. Since the talent at AA and AAA is nearly the same, I guess it's not that big of a deal. It may also make Castillo more attractive to team's wanting to trade for him if he is successful in Iowa. The best he can be for the Cubs is a cheap backup.

[craig]

Agree, it will give Clevenger a nice and needed opportunity. BA had Clevenger as our #11 prospect, so it stands to reason that his development does merit consideration.

 

I just didn't expect that would be important enough or that Castillo would be advanced enough to be in AAA. Castillo is 21; has played in less than 200 minor league games; has supposedly only been catching for a couple of years after being moved off 1B; by several accounts (ask ping about this) is not a very advanced receiver at this point (has too many passed balls and balls he could stop that he doesn't); and last year he had a .720 OPS. Given how young and unpolished he is, I just assumed it would make sense to start him at AA, no rush.

 

But, perhaps he's developing faster than expected? That would be wonderful. Perhaps it's just about Clevenger, as you suggest. And perhaps they simply believe that Castillo is advanced enough so that he really can be the #3 catcher, the guy who'll get called up if Soto or Hill get DL'd.

 

Soto of course played three full seasons at iowa, IIRC. So perhaps they feel that what worked well for Geo is good for Castillo too. Perhaps catching some of the more experienced guys at AAA might be better for him, more breaking balls etc. and simply more experienced and wiser pitchers who can teach him more. His hitting might also benefit from being exposed to all the AAA junkball stuff thrown by a lot of the AAAA pitchers he'll see. And as you say, they may simply figure that AA/AAA are pretty similiar, so why not when it helps Clev.

 

I do agree with you, talented young catchers are not abundant. If Castillo could be really productive at AAA, he'd turn into a very useful trade piece. Clevenger, being the LH guy and with no power, he projects more as a backup. So if both were to develop well and become successful major leaguers, trading Castillo for serious value while keeping Clevenger as a career backup would make more sense.