When should Cubs think about docking D-Lee's playing time?

[jdelaney5150]

I think it's a bit unfair to keep harping on his splits from May 1st through now. He had one of the most ridiculously excellent months ever in April (.371/.446/.705). That was obviously an anomaly so I understand tossing that out, but then he has an atrocious month in May (.234/.269/.411) which is just as clearly an anomaly the other way so I think it makes just as much sense to throw that one out too and just talk about what he's done from June 1st on.

 

And I don't put a lot of weight into the idea that he is now past his prime. Do you really think he has aged that much since April? Lee's overall numbers this year look pretty similar to his years in both 2004 and 2006, and he's rebounded each of those time. Certainly as you get older it gets harder and harder to rebound but, come on, as of today he's still only 32 and he's not a catcher! I do agree that it's evidence that as he is getting older you do have to adjust and give him some additional time off but that's what it should be: time off to rest. Not a reduction in playing time. Throw Ward into the mix until 9/1 to see if he can parlay Friday's performance into something useful, and then throw Hoffpauir into the mix once 9/1 rolls around and we'll see if he can emerge Soto-esque down the stretch. But still I think Lee should be starting 5 games a week (meaning 2 days of rest per week regardless if we play 6 or 7 games that week).

 

As for next year, I think there's a real good shot we'll see Lee in the 2-hole and probably a 50-50 shot that Theriot will move up to leadoff with Soriano moving to 3rd.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think it's a bit unfair to keep harping on his splits from May 1st through now. He had one of the most ridiculously excellent months ever in April (.371/.446/.705). That was obviously an anomaly so I understand tossing that out, but then he has an atrocious month in May (.234/.269/.411) which is just as clearly an anomaly the other way so I think it makes just as much sense to throw that one out too and just talk about what he's done from June 1st on.

 

And I don't put a lot of weight into the idea that he is now past his prime. Do you really think he has aged that much since April?

 

Whether you put a lot of weight on it or not, the prime age for position players is generally somewhere between 25-29, with a peak right around 26. Lee is clearly past his prime. It has nothing to do with aging past April. He wasn't that good before coming to the Cubs and he's returned to that level. Not bad, but not that good either. Sort of blah, given his position.

[9YRPLAN]

ive lurked on this board for the last few years, but i am certainly not here very often. why is everyone's opinion of hoffpauir so low? people say he cant hit lefties, doesnt have a position, is a AAAA player, etc...

 

we need to do something with him. he has a reasonable amount of trade value right now. he has hit at every level...the reason he's still in the minors is not because of his skill set...its because HES BEHIND DERREK LEE. maybe a greater baseball mind can help me understand the lack of hoff-love.

[Rob]

ive lurked on this board for the last few years, but i am certainly not here very often. why is everyone's opinion of hoffpauir so low? people say he cant hit lefties, doesnt have a position, is a AAAA player, etc...

 

we need to do something with him. he has a reasonable amount of trade value right now. he has hit at every level...the reason he's still in the minors is not because of his skill set...its because HES BEHIND DERREK LEE. maybe a greater baseball mind can help me understand the lack of hoff-love.

 

He's 28, and this is his 4th year in AAA. He was about average for a 1B in the hitter friendly PCL last year, but was no good the two years before that.

 

In short, he's too old to be taken seriously as a prospect, and we're probably seeing his peak season right now. Does that mean I'm against keeping him on the roster and giving DLee a few rests? No. But Hoffpauir isn't our 1B of the future, isn't the 1B of now, and has very little trade value due to his age. It's nothing against the guy... but he's probably not anything more than a backup.

[jdelaney5150]

I think it's a bit unfair to keep harping on his splits from May 1st through now. He had one of the most ridiculously excellent months ever in April (.371/.446/.705). That was obviously an anomaly so I understand tossing that out, but then he has an atrocious month in May (.234/.269/.411) which is just as clearly an anomaly the other way so I think it makes just as much sense to throw that one out too and just talk about what he's done from June 1st on.

 

And I don't put a lot of weight into the idea that he is now past his prime. Do you really think he has aged that much since April?

 

Whether you put a lot of weight on it or not, the prime age for position players is generally somewhere between 25-29, with a peak right around 26. Lee is clearly past his prime. It has nothing to do with aging past April. He wasn't that good before coming to the Cubs and he's returned to that level. Not bad, but not that good either. Sort of blah, given his position.

 

First of all, a peak does not mean a precipitous drop immediately follows. A slow decline closely resembling a plateau into a player's mid-30s is far more likely unless there is a catastrophic injury that occurs. You might have made that argument with Lee before last season but I think that's hardly the case now.

 

I guess it also depends on what you mean by "not that good." I don't think there's any question that his numbers this year still put him as one of the top 10 offensive first basemen in all of baseball. I think you may be allowing yourself to be skewed because 3 of the ones ahead of him (Berkman, Pujols, and Fielder) all play in our division.

 

Now, if you're talking about his numbers being blah for a number 3 hitter you have a better case.

 

Still, anyone ready to write the eulogy on Lee's offensive prowess (and I'm not saying you're doing that) is being premature in my opinion. Really, we're talking about a guy who had a horrible May and was bad for half of July but has been solid otherwise. His numbers so far in August AVG and OBP-wise (.280/.393) are good; it's just the slugging that's down. This is not anything new with him. With the exception of 2005, he's had extended periods every year where his power disappears. When asked about it, his response is always the same: "I'm just not elevating the ball" when his power is gone and "I AM elevating the ball" when he's on a good streak. His prodigious GIDPs this year, while extremely painful and frustrating, are at least proof that he is still hitting the ball hard. When he either 1) starts striking out at a much higher rate than his average, 2)starts hitting a lot of lazy pop-ups, or 3) starts hitting a lot of Juan Pierre-esque soft grounders that's when I'll start to be worried that maybe he's on the decline. None of those is the case right now.

[haltz]

I don't think there's any question that his numbers this year still put him as one of the top 10 offensive first basemen in all of baseball.

Sure there is. He's EqA is almost exactly average for a first baseman this year. He is still, however, a plus defender (which makes him an above average player) and very likely a better hitter than his rate stats show this year.

 

Replacing him with Hoffpauir would be a pretty stupid knee-jerk reaction to what probably amounts to random variation for both. I don't know what kind of defender Micah is, but even if he is a .301 EqA hitter like his translation shows despite avoiding walks like the plague, it's probably not that big of an upgrade.

 

What is the point of sitting the proven, high-ceiling, high-paid, still above-average first baseman when the team is pretty much a mortal lock for the playoffs? You want to give all your regulars a breather now and then down the stretch, that's fine. Any other reason is stupid.

[Gingerballs Lives]

I think it's clear that there is only one reasonable solution to the Lee Conundrum:

 

 

Todd Walker

[jdelaney5150]

OK, so baseball prospectus has him ranked as 13 based on EQA, EQR, RAR, RAP, and RARP. While I definitely believe in the value of statistics, I don't think they are infallible as I would definitely take Lee over Giambi, Delgado, Pena, and Jackson (who are all ranked ahead of him).

 

Interesting side note: Soriano actually ranks 15th among left fielders based on the same measurements.

[haltz]

Just RARP. I didn't say those were true talent rankings (in fact I said I think he's better than this), just that this year he has a .278 EqA and all 1B have combined to put up a .277 EqA.

[Rob]

OK, so baseball prospectus has him ranked as 13 based on EQA, EQR, RAR, RAP, and RARP. While I definitely believe in the value of statistics, I don't think they are infallible as I would definitely take Lee over Giambi, Delgado, Pena, and Jackson (who are all ranked ahead of him).

 

Interesting side note: Soriano actually ranks 15th among left fielders based on the same measurements.

 

It's not exactly surprising. Soriano has missed 8 weeks.

[UMFan83]

I think it's clear that there is only one reasonable solution to the Lee Conundrum:

 

 

Todd Walker

 

I miss TWalk

[jdelaney5150]

OK, so baseball prospectus has him ranked as 13 based on EQA, EQR, RAR, RAP, and RARP. While I definitely believe in the value of statistics, I don't think they are infallible as I would definitely take Lee over Giambi, Delgado, Pena, and Jackson (who are all ranked ahead of him).

 

Interesting side note: Soriano actually ranks 15th among left fielders based on the same measurements.

 

It's not exactly surprising. Soriano has missed 8 weeks.

 

My knowledge of the some of the more advanced stats is admittedly limited, but I don't believe that would affect a player's RARP. It's a measure of what you do with the plate appearances you have, not your cumulative stats. Otherwise I have no idea how Daniel Murphy, with 49 plate appearances, could be ranked ahead of Carl Crawford, with 480.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

OK, so baseball prospectus has him ranked as 13 based on EQA, EQR, RAR, RAP, and RARP. While I definitely believe in the value of statistics, I don't think they are infallible as I would definitely take Lee over Giambi, Delgado, Pena, and Jackson (who are all ranked ahead of him).

 

Interesting side note: Soriano actually ranks 15th among left fielders based on the same measurements.

 

It's not exactly surprising. Soriano has missed 8 weeks.

I don't believe games played would have an impact on any of those calculations

[mul21]

Just a random observation: It doesn't look to me like Lee's stance is quite as open as it has been in years past. He's still getting around on the inside pitch but hasn't been able to drive it or elevate it at all, hence the 8 million ground balls to the SS. Just an idea, don't know if it has any merit or not.

[mikec9971]

How come everyone one on this site thinks they can manage the cubs better then Lou? Has anyone on this site coached a level above high school? How far over .500 do they need to be for you to realize they dont need to change anything?

[Tracer Bullet]

How come everyone one on this site thinks they can manage the cubs better then Lou? Has anyone on this site coached a level above high school? How far over .500 do they need to be for you to realize they dont need to change anything?

huh

[UMFan83]

How come everyone one on this site thinks they can manage the cubs better then Lou? Has anyone on this site coached a level above high school? How far over .500 do they need to be for you to realize they dont need to change anything?

 

This board wouldn't exist if we all blindly trusted Lou, Jim and the Cubs management. Wouldn't that be fun?

[SouthSideRyan]

How come everyone one on this site thinks they can manage the cubs better then Lou? Has anyone on this site coached a level above high school? How far over .500 do they need to be for you to realize they dont need to change anything?

huh

 

Search function is awesome.

[Tracer Bullet]

How come everyone one on this site thinks they can manage the cubs better then Lou? Has anyone on this site coached a level above high school? How far over .500 do they need to be for you to realize they dont need to change anything?

huh

 

Search function is awesome.

 

I just went to his profile b/c I hadn't recalled seeing him before, but he had 4 posts. Struck me as odd that his 3rd post was telling the Cubs to ditch Howry while his 4th was lambasting the entire Board for saying we know how to manage the Cubs.

[David]

How come everyone one on this site thinks they can manage the cubs better then Lou? Has anyone on this site coached a level above high school? How far over .500 do they need to be for you to realize they dont need to change anything?

huh

 

I love it.

[CubinNY]

I don't agree with the dude's sentiment at all, but that doesn't mean this thread isn't completely out of control. They've been pitching Lee away for most of the season. He's taken those and hit singles with them. No big deal. I'd like for him to hit for more power, but I'd like Jennifer Aniston to quit dating rockstars and actors and check me out, too.

 

The thing I worry most about Lee is that he seems to have slider bat speed.

[CuseCubFan69]

I think it would be a win-win situation to get Ward some more AB's to keep him in a decent groove while getting Lee a little more rest. I'd like to see a start every 10 days or so for Ward.

[Tracer Bullet]

I don't agree with the dude's sentiment at all, but that doesn't mean this thread isn't completely out of control. They've been pitching Lee away for most of the season. He's taken those and hit singles with them. No big deal. I'd like for him to hit for more power, but I'd like Jennifer Aniston to quit dating rockstars and actors and check me out, too.

 

The thing I worry most about Lee is that he seems to have slider bat speed.

 

The thread may be ridiculous. The attitude is ridiculouser.

[questionmarkgrace]

I think the point is we dont want a repeat of the 07 playoffs. Lee in the three hole pumping out groundballs is not going to get us to the WS. He needs to start hitting or sitting. Either way Hoffpauir has shown us he deserves to be up here. His numbers in 60 games played at iowa are crazy. Bring up the Hoff and let Lee "freshen up" and hopefully he gets his head straight.

[Sammy Sofa]

Maybe he needs to start smacking or slacking.