The White Sox' achilles heel

[TruffleShuffle]

People forgot about this because they'd overperformed in the first half, but that pitching staff was supposed to be pretty weak this year. But danks and floyd have pitched better than expected, and contreras has also thrown pretty well. but a look at their peripherals suggests that there has been a fair amount of good luck involved - anomalously-low home run rates for fly ball pitchers, and good fortune on balls in play.

 

Since the ASB, the white sox pitching has the following line... not including the 12 runs that KC hung on them today:

 

5.39 ERA, 122.0 IP, 134 H, 83 R, 73 ER, 41 BB, 90 K, .275 BAA, .815 OPSa, 1.52 WHIP

 

they can still make the playoffs obviously, but it might be in spite of their pitching. their lack of frontline starters also makes them a pretty big underdog in the playoffs.

[javy knows my name]

I definitely agree with this, and I think a big reason for the dropoff in pitching is a corresponding dropoff in defense, especially in the infield. They played way over their heads defensively for the first couple of months and are now coming back to earth, showing to be a very beatable team.

[TruffleShuffle]

I definitely agree with this, and I think a big reason for the dropoff in pitching is a corresponding dropoff in defense, especially in the infield. They played way over their heads defensively for the first couple of months and are now coming back to earth, showing to be a very beatable team.

 

their outfield defense is also really bad now. quentin is below average, griffey isn't even average for a corner outfielder, so he's terrible in CF, and dye is okay in RF.

[haltz]

Dye's been only a bit below average, but he posted a -55 plus/minus over the last two years. That could be the worst defensive outfield ever assembled.

 

Danks has been pretty good. His FIP matches his ERA and his xFIP is only .40 off (because he has gotten somewhat lucky on HR/FB), and he's totally changed his GB/FB profile this year. I don't see how Contreras has been lucky. His ERA is worse than his peripherals suggest. You're correct about Floyd.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The Sox are similar to the Brewers in that they live and die with the home run ball. If you have a ground ball pitcher or the winds blowing in, they're in trouble.

[shnsajax]

I was amazed at the Angels run differnce looking at that yesterday. They don't rely on the hr ball but seem to have a small margin for error.

[Wilson A2000]

The Sox are similar to the Brewers in that they live and die with the home run ball.

 

Which is weird that they went out and got an old, slow, home-run hitter in Griffey whose stats are not too different from Konerko's and Swisher's. But Griffey has had a good last month.

[TruffleShuffle]

Dye's been only a bit below average, but he posted a -55 plus/minus over the last two years. That could be the worst defensive outfield ever assembled.

 

Danks has been pretty good. His FIP matches his ERA and his xFIP is only .40 off (because he has gotten somewhat lucky on HR/FB), and he's totally changed his GB/FB profile this year. I don't see how Contreras has been lucky. His ERA is worse than his peripherals suggest. You're correct about Floyd.

 

i guess i hadn't looked at contreras' stats lately... his home run rate was really low earlier in the year, but i guess he's been throwing some BP lately.

 

as for danks, i'm not convinced that he's as good as he has been this year. his GB/FB ratio was about 1.5 early in the year, but in july it was even, and he gave up 5 home runs on the month. he's better than he showed last year, but as he gets up toward and past 150 innings, i think that he'll struggle to get as much sink on the ball and he's going to give up more hard hit balls and home runs. just a hunch.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

The White Sox' achilles heel

 

The Royals, apparently.

[Soul]

The Sox are similar to the Brewers in that they live and die with the home run ball.

 

Which is weird that they went out and got an old, slow, home-run hitter in Griffey whose stats are not too different from Konerko's and Swisher's. But Griffey has had a good last month.

 

They're hoping for lightning in a bottle offensively. The Konerko/Swisher struggles at the plate have caused no end of frustration for that organization.

[SouthSideRyan]

Konerko's struggles aren't a huge shock to me, I'm really surprised with how Swisher is hitting.

[EightyTwo]

Dye's been only a bit below average, but he posted a -55 plus/minus over the last two years. That could be the worst defensive outfield ever assembled.

 

Danks has been pretty good. His FIP matches his ERA and his xFIP is only .40 off (because he has gotten somewhat lucky on HR/FB), and he's totally changed his GB/FB profile this year. I don't see how Contreras has been lucky. His ERA is worse than his peripherals suggest. You're correct about Floyd.

 

What about the Glenallen Hill, Jose Hernandez, Sammy Sosa outfield that the Cubs used for a time in 1998? :shock:

[Jehrico]

Dye's been only a bit below average, but he posted a -55 plus/minus over the last two years. That could be the worst defensive outfield ever assembled.

 

Danks has been pretty good. His FIP matches his ERA and his xFIP is only .40 off (because he has gotten somewhat lucky on HR/FB), and he's totally changed his GB/FB profile this year. I don't see how Contreras has been lucky. His ERA is worse than his peripherals suggest. You're correct about Floyd.

 

What about the Glenallen Hill, Jose Hernandez, Sammy Sosa outfield that the Cubs used for a time in 1998? :shock:

Sammy was a pretty damned good right fielder back in those days. Hernandez was mediocre. The WSox outfield is a bit worse than our 98 outfield.

[SouthSideRyan]

Glenallen-Sosa-Rodriguez

[Amie]

I definitely agree with this, and I think a big reason for the dropoff in pitching is a corresponding dropoff in defense, especially in the infield. They played way over their heads defensively for the first couple of months and are now coming back to earth, showing to be a very beatable team.

 

their outfield defense is also really bad now. quentin is below average, griffey isn't even average for a corner outfielder, so he's terrible in CF, and dye is okay in RF.

 

 

I agree, and already they are using Griffey as the DH. I didn't think it would take long, heck there is no was he can play that center field in KC, let alone in some of the other American League parks. I guess Kenny felt making any move was better then no move at all..

 

Didn't make much sense..

[imb]

i cant believe that dye is anything less than miserable in the field, i've never seen anyone move so slow

[RedFlash]

Dye's been only a bit below average, but he posted a -55 plus/minus over the last two years. That could be the worst defensive outfield ever assembled.

 

Danks has been pretty good. His FIP matches his ERA and his xFIP is only .40 off (because he has gotten somewhat lucky on HR/FB), and he's totally changed his GB/FB profile this year. I don't see how Contreras has been lucky. His ERA is worse than his peripherals suggest. You're correct about Floyd.

 

What do you expect from the "All DH OF" of the White Sox?

[brinoch]

i cant believe that dye is anything less than miserable in the field, i've never seen anyone move so slow

 

Moises Alou.

[NewUserName]

Dye's been only a bit below average, but he posted a -55 plus/minus over the last two years. That could be the worst defensive outfield ever assembled.

 

Danks has been pretty good. His FIP matches his ERA and his xFIP is only .40 off (because he has gotten somewhat lucky on HR/FB), and he's totally changed his GB/FB profile this year. I don't see how Contreras has been lucky. His ERA is worse than his peripherals suggest. You're correct about Floyd.

 

What about the Glenallen Hill, Jose Hernandez, Sammy Sosa outfield that the Cubs used for a time in 1998? :shock:

 

I think in 86 the Cubs had a starting OF of a really old Gary Mathews, a really old Jerry Mumphrey and Keith Moreland.

[imb]

i cant believe that dye is anything less than miserable in the field, i've never seen anyone move so slow

 

Moises Alou.

 

i've got to think that moises is faster than dye... or at least was, I haven't watched a mets game in ever.

 

The other day I saw a flyball get hit three steps behind dye - not a liner either, a flyball - and it got over his head. he moved so slow i thought espn had the tape on rewind

[SouthSideRyan]

i cant believe that dye is anything less than miserable in the field, i've never seen anyone move so slow

 

Moises Alou.

 

i've got to think that moises is faster than dye... or at least was, I haven't watched a mets game in ever.

 

The other day I saw a flyball get hit three steps behind dye - not a liner either, a flyball - and it got over his head. he moved so slow i thought espn had the tape on rewind

 

Moises hasn't been in a Mets game in forever.

[danonwaveland]

I think in 86 the Cubs had a starting OF of a really old Gary Mathews, a really old Jerry Mumphrey and Keith Moreland.

 

Thanks a lot! I'm gonna have nightmares for the next week!

 

________________________________________________

Sandberg>Mazeroski>Morgan

[inari]

Side note, I heard John Danks talk for the first time last night. He has a huge lisp.

[TruffleShuffle]

this thread is awfully ironic now that jose contreras left tonight's game with, yes, a ruptured achilles.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

this thread is awfully ironic now that jose contreras left tonight's game with, yes, a ruptured achilles.

 

that sounds painful. At his age, this could end his career. I don't know too many 50-yr-olds that can recover from that.