Should we be worried about a decline from Z?

[inari]

His K count for the last few years has been plummeting.

 

2006 210

2007 177

2008 138 (pace)

 

However, he's also on pace to walk 70, which would be his best total over a full season. And his home run rates have sunk down, as he is on pace for 14 this year (compared to 21, 20, and 23 the last three years). He has also been worse at preventing contact than previous years, as this is the first year he has not appeared near the top of the hits allowed/9 IP leaderboard.

 

So, what is to be made of Z? Is he on the decline or somehow redefining himself as a pitcher?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The good news is Carlos isn't getting lucky with all those extra balls in play from fewer K's, walks, and home runs. His BABIP, LD%, and batted ball types are all pretty similar to recent years.

[CuseCubFan69]

Has he decreased his pitches per batter? Has his velocity dropped?

[inari]

The good news is Carlos isn't getting lucky with all those extra balls in play from fewer K's, walks, and home runs. His BABIP, LD%, and batted ball types are all pretty similar to recent years.

 

But what can that be attributed to? It's just really tough to imagine that he truly has changed the way he pitches and found success.

[anabiono]

Z has been solid all season. He has really been able to get his emotional outbreaks under control for the most part. I think he is just maturing.

[fromthestretch]

Has he decreased his pitches per batter? Has his velocity dropped?

 

Pitches per plate appearance for Big Z

2002: 3.96

2003: 3.76

2004: 3.91

2005: 3.90

2006: 3.95

2007: 3.98

2008: 3.73

[CuseCubFan69]

Has he decreased his pitches per batter? Has his velocity dropped?

 

Pitches per plate appearance for Big Z

2002: 3.96

2003: 3.76

2004: 3.91

2005: 3.90

2006: 3.95

2007: 3.98

2008: 3.73

 

 

Thanks grass. So he seems to finding the plate more often and is getting hit more often and the ball in theory is getting hit as hard as in the past. I think this might not be a bad thing as long as he hasn't changed his velo and is now throwing less pitches.

[mul21]

Wasn't there talk earlier this year of him making a concious effort to not throw as hard and therefore get more movement on his pitches? I have to think that would have something to do with missing less bats due to a decrease in velocity but the contact that is made isn't as solid because of the added movement.

[UMFan83]

I think he's maturing as a pitcher. He said it himself this year that he was becoming a pitcher as opposed to a thrower. He's also getting a lot of effectiveness out of his sinker, something he hasn't done since 2003-2004

[Peoriaman]

No.

[Sammy Sofa]

Getting someone to hit into an out has the same result as a strikeout.

 

FYI.

[inari]

Meph's take would be awesome right about now.

[CuseCubFan69]

Getting someone to hit into an out has the same result as a strikeout.

 

FYI.

 

It depends what you think if the same result is just the hitter or including the possible base runners when that out occurs.

[Sammy Sofa]

Getting someone to hit into an out has the same result as a strikeout.

 

FYI.

 

It depends what you think if the same result is just the hitter or including the possible base runners when that out occurs.

 

Semantics, get thee to a nunnery.

[CuseCubFan69]

Getting someone to hit into an out has the same result as a strikeout.

 

FYI.

 

It depends what you think if the same result is just the hitter or including the possible base runners when that out occurs.

 

Semantics, get thee to a nunnery.

 

You just wrote it like it was an absolute and I corrected you much like you did him.

[Sammy Sofa]

Getting someone to hit into an out has the same result as a strikeout.

 

FYI.

 

It depends what you think if the same result is just the hitter or including the possible base runners when that out occurs.

 

Semantics, get thee to a nunnery.

 

You just wrote it like it was an absolute and I corrected you much like you did him.

 

In the sense that a out is achieved, yes, it is an absolute. In response to the general idea that less strikeouts = declining Z, I totally stand by it.

[XZero771679666304]

Meph's take would be awesome right about now.

 

IIRC, Meph predicted Carlos would have an ERA over 4 in 2008, so I am guessing he some sort of bad trend.

[CuseCubFan69]

Getting someone to hit into an out has the same result as a strikeout.

 

FYI.

 

It depends what you think if the same result is just the hitter or including the possible base runners when that out occurs.

 

Semantics, get thee to a nunnery.

 

You just wrote it like it was an absolute and I corrected you much like you did him.

 

In the sense that a out is achieved, yes, it is an absolute. In response to the general idea that less strikeouts = declining Z, I totally stand by it.

 

I suppose it is semantics but I read this statement "Getting someone to hit into an out has the same result as a strikeout" as something different and I did ask you if you were just talking about the hitters result.

 

What I'd like to see is if Z is missing the plate less when he throws a ball.

[fromthestretch]

Wasn't there talk earlier this year of him making a concious effort to not throw as hard and therefore get more movement on his pitches? I have to think that would have something to do with missing less bats due to a decrease in velocity but the contact that is made isn't as solid because of the added movement.

 

I remember him saying something to that effect. IIRC, he alluded to the fact that it was something Maddux had talked to him about.

[Soul]

He's probably trying to keep his arm healthy. That's a good thing right?

[chuckywang]

Aren't those stats what you expect given Z's conversations with Maddux?

 

High K guys also walk a lot of guys ... it's the nature of power pitching. Z looks to be moving away from that.

[fromthestretch]

One other thing that Z has improved this year is his home run rate. He's getting back to the 2002-2004 Zambrano that did a good job keeping the ball in the yard. Not that he was giving up a ton of homers the past few years, but he's definitely improved in that area this season.

[CuseCubFan69]

One other thing that Z has improved this year is his home run rate. He's getting back to the 2002-2004 Zambrano that did a good job keeping the ball in the yard. Not that he was giving up a ton of homers the past few years, but he's definitely improved in that area this season.

 

I wonder if that's because he's not behind hitters or is hitting his spots better....could be both I suppose.

[Jehrico]

Z isn't trying to strike everyone out before. He's also keeping his pitch counts down as a result and going longer in games. Remember when Z would hit 100 pitches in the 5th inning every other start? He doesn't do that much anymore.

[SABR Gamer]

This could have been said already, but yeah, I don't think we need to worry about a decline from Z. I think this is just him really mastering pitching, his walks are way down and his strikeouts are down a little, but that's because he has learned he doesn't need to strike everyone out. If you get a guy down 1-2 or 0-2, you can just pitch to contact and give him something that there's no chance he can do anything with it. In the past Z might get ahead and then try to strike him out and get it to 3-2 and then walk him or strike him out, but now he's learning that an 0-2 groundout is just as good and that he doesn't need to strike him out. I don't think Z is declining, I think he's getting better.