Marmol needs to be sharper...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

In your theory, any pitcher who has ever thrown 150+ innings as a starter could throw 140 innings as a reliever and suffer no consequences.

 

I do not know where the danger zone lies, but there has to be one. Being on the very edge of usage patterns compared to all relievers has to be risky. If there's no risk in relieving there would be no relievers that get hurt throwing.

 

No, because starters who aren't overworked get hurt all the time, and so do relievers who aren't overworked. I'm not saying that people who come from higher workloads are immune, I'm saying/theorizing they aren't a ticking bomb like some are making it out to be.

[Tyrant]

He's on the far edge of the extreme usage. If his usage hasn't been reckless, there's no such thing as reckless usage of relief pitchers, let alone very young ones.

 

Marmol will turn 26 this year. He's not 20 or 21, and he doesn't need to be protected like he's that young.

[fromthestretch]

I think you could say that as long as the player comes straight from a workload that is greater or similar to their current usage, that there's close to no such thing as reckless usage of a reliever.

 

I think that's rather absurd. 140 innings of starting every 5th day is not the same as 100 innings of relief work every other day.

 

I think you could say that the latter is significantly easier, as it pertains to injury prevention. When it comes to overuse, what's the cause of the injury? Fatigue leading to poor mechanics. When you've thrown more innings than that prior to the usage, and the usage isn't long enough to fatigue the arm and cause mechanical breakdown, then I don't think it's a particularly large risk(while noting the all pitchers are risks because pitching is unnatural, etc.).

 

In your theory, any pitcher who has ever thrown 150+ innings as a starter could throw 140 innings as a reliever and suffer no consequences.

 

I do not know where the danger zone lies, but there has to be one. Being on the very edge of usage patterns compared to all relievers has to be risky. If there's no risk in relieving there would be no relievers that get hurt throwing.

 

On top of that, if you know you're only going to throw an inning, you can air it out. If you know you're going out there to try to throw 6+ innings, you're probably going to pace yourself more. You also get more rest between outings as a starter.

 

Even if he doesn't get hurt, I'm a bit concerned about how effective he might be down the stretch.

[TheDude]

I think you could say that as long as the player comes straight from a workload that is greater or similar to their current usage, that there's close to no such thing as reckless usage of a reliever.

 

I think that's rather absurd. 140 innings of starting every 5th day is not the same as 100 innings of relief work every other day.

 

I think you could say that the latter is significantly easier, as it pertains to injury prevention. When it comes to overuse, what's the cause of the injury? Fatigue leading to poor mechanics. When you've thrown more innings than that prior to the usage, and the usage isn't long enough to fatigue the arm and cause mechanical breakdown, then I don't think it's a particularly large risk(while noting the all pitchers are risks because pitching is unnatural, etc.).

 

In your theory, any pitcher who has ever thrown 150+ innings as a starter could throw 140 innings as a reliever and suffer no consequences.

 

I do not know where the danger zone lies, but there has to be one. Being on the very edge of usage patterns compared to all relievers has to be risky. If there's no risk in relieving there would be no relievers that get hurt throwing.

 

I wasn't trying to theorize anything. I'm just stating that Marmol's style and movement is conducive to a high pitch count pitcher. It doesn't matter what role he fills (starter or reliever), trying to get him to be a more efficient pitcher is probably a waste of time, and possibly reduces his effectiveness breaking out of the zone.

 

So for Lou, plugging him in with a 4 run lead to get sharp isn't likely to do anything for him. To protect him from injury, he just needs to be free to throw his game with fewer appearances.

[Jon]

He's on the far edge of the extreme usage. If his usage hasn't been reckless, there's no such thing as reckless usage of relief pitchers, let alone very young ones.

 

Marmol will turn 26 this year. He's not 20 or 21, and he doesn't need to be protected like he's that young.

I don't believe he pitched at all in his life before 2003, when he threw 62 innings at Mesa. He wasn't made a starter until 2004. His career as a pitcher is still very young.

 

We probably can't find many comparable players to Marmol in terms of career path and usage pattern, but I wouldn't say there has to be a clearer risk of injury due to how he's currently being used in order to call it reckless. If Piniella continues to use him as much and as often in relatively unimportant situations, Marmol's risk for injury will be unnecessarily increased. How much it will be increased doesn't as much matter from a managerial point of view. The benefit doesn't outweigh the risk, whatever that may be.

[CubbieBum]

Marmol is on pace for 85 appearances. Not that many when you consider the following ...

 

Howry had 84 in 2006 for us and 79 the year before

Wuertz of all people had 75 in 2005 for us

 

In fact we've had at least one pitcher have 75 appearances in every season 2003. And if you are thinking of saying the person changed constantly because the guys arm got worn out I give you Salomon Torres. Here is what he did the first three years he was a full time relief pitcher.

 

Pitched in at least 78 games every year including 94 in 2006. Overall he averaged just over 85 games a year or the pace Marmol is currently on. Each year he pitched more than 90 innings averaging just over 93 a year. Every year his ERA was 3.28 or lower. So far this year he has pitched a grand total of 2.2 innings less than Marmol with an ERA under 2.5.

 

Can every pitcher handle a heavy workload? Of course not but some can especially the ones that used to be starters. Marmol so far has seemed like one of the ones who can handle more. I'm sick of the continuing trend of babying pitchers. I'm not saying throw every pitcher a lot but the ones that handle it should get the extra work if they are really good. It especially bothers me with starters. Everyone made a big stink about Sabathia getting 241 innings last year and how it would hurt him for years to come. Maddux pitched more than that 7 times including three straight seasons with 263+ and led the league in innings 5 straight times. During the 90's Cox had three or four of starters pitching 220+. In 97 Maddux pitched 233 innings and was only 8th in the league in innings pitched.

 

Again not every pitcher can handle heavy workloads but most of the great ones can and I don't think anyone hear will say Marmol isn't great ... rant complete.

[Soul]

He's on the far edge of the extreme usage. If his usage hasn't been reckless, there's no such thing as reckless usage of relief pitchers, let alone very young ones.

 

Marmol will turn 26 this year. He's not 20 or 21, and he doesn't need to be protected like he's that young.

I don't believe he pitched at all in his life before 2003, when he threw 62 innings at Mesa. He wasn't made a starter until 2004. His career as a pitcher is still very young.

 

We probably can't find many comparable players to Marmol in terms of career path and usage pattern, but I wouldn't say there has to be a clearer risk of injury due to how he's currently being used in order to call it reckless. If Piniella continues to use him as much and as often in relatively unimportant situations, Marmol's risk for injury will be unnecessarily increased. How much it will be increased doesn't as much matter from a managerial point of view. The benefit doesn't outweigh the risk, whatever that may be.

 

Especially since the benefit of putting him in a 6-0 ballgame is pretty much nil. Hard to outweigh risk when you're running on a zero benefit.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

We probably can't find many comparable players to Marmol in terms of career path and usage pattern, but I wouldn't say there has to be a clearer risk of injury due to how he's currently being used in order to call it reckless. If Piniella continues to use him as much and as often in relatively unimportant situations, Marmol's risk for injury will be unnecessarily increased. How much it will be increased doesn't as much matter from a managerial point of view. The benefit doesn't outweigh the risk, whatever that may be.

 

To clarify, that's a slightly different argument. I'm certainly not saying to send Marmol out in any and every situation, I didn't want him out there yesterday and definitely wasn't happy when he started the 8th.

[jersey cubs fan]

Well Marmol's ERA is over 4 in his last eight appearances and what exactly are you guys complaining about? Everyone has been harping about Marmol being overused and now you're going to complain when Lou says he wants to get Marmol's pitch count down.

 

Lou is insinuating he has to use Marmol frequently to keep him sharp, so he'll throw more strikes and keep his pitch counts down per at bat. The problem is Marmol's lack of sharpness is quite possibly due to the absurd overuse the past year. He's pretending he's got some sort of impossible task of balancing the rest Marmol needs with the frequency he needs.

 

I don't know. Marmol as a starter had major issues with pitch count. I can't recall a time in his pro career he was ever a guy that would be termed efficient. A lot of people around here advocate moving him back into the rotation, but I'd be surprised if could turn out to be more than a 5 inning starter.

 

He's just a high pitch count guy anyway. I don't think he's going to get sharper and Lou's best bet is to just use him less frequently.

 

That's my theory. It's all well and good to say he needs to throw fewer pitches, but the guy is an extremely high K rate pitcher, and that means more pitches. The only real option is to stop throwing him every other day, stop throwing him with 5 runs leads, and stop being such a hard headed moron about it. When you can play a game without needing Marmol, that's a good thing.

[Tyrant]

He's on the far edge of the extreme usage. If his usage hasn't been reckless, there's no such thing as reckless usage of relief pitchers, let alone very young ones.

 

Marmol will turn 26 this year. He's not 20 or 21, and he doesn't need to be protected like he's that young.

I don't believe he pitched at all in his life before 2003, when he threw 62 innings at Mesa. He wasn't made a starter until 2004. His career as a pitcher is still very young.

 

Couldn't that argument be spun the other way? Maybe he's less susceptible to injury because he doesn't have years and years of mileage on his arm.

[Soul]

He's on the far edge of the extreme usage. If his usage hasn't been reckless, there's no such thing as reckless usage of relief pitchers, let alone very young ones.

 

Marmol will turn 26 this year. He's not 20 or 21, and he doesn't need to be protected like he's that young.

I don't believe he pitched at all in his life before 2003, when he threw 62 innings at Mesa. He wasn't made a starter until 2004. His career as a pitcher is still very young.

 

Couldn't that argument be spun the other way? Maybe he's less susceptible to injury because he doesn't have years and years of mileage on his arm.

 

Nobody really knows what will happen to Marmol's arm. But if you pitch him at league-high innings (for a reliever) and his arm falls off? You can bet Lou will feel the heat for that, especially if nobody materializes to pick up the slack and we start dropping games because of it.

[jersey cubs fan]

He's on the far edge of the extreme usage. If his usage hasn't been reckless, there's no such thing as reckless usage of relief pitchers, let alone very young ones.

 

Marmol will turn 26 this year. He's not 20 or 21, and he doesn't need to be protected like he's that young.

 

I'm not asking for the Joba rules here. I'm talking about not putting him on the extreme edge of reliever usage, which is where he's been since coming up last year.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think you could say that as long as the player comes straight from a workload that is greater or similar to their current usage, that there's close to no such thing as reckless usage of a reliever.

 

I think that's rather absurd. 140 innings of starting every 5th day is not the same as 100 innings of relief work every other day.

 

I think you could say that the latter is significantly easier, as it pertains to injury prevention. When it comes to overuse, what's the cause of the injury? Fatigue leading to poor mechanics. When you've thrown more innings than that prior to the usage, and the usage isn't long enough to fatigue the arm and cause mechanical breakdown, then I don't think it's a particularly large risk(while noting the all pitchers are risks because pitching is unnatural, etc.).

 

In your theory, any pitcher who has ever thrown 150+ innings as a starter could throw 140 innings as a reliever and suffer no consequences.

 

I do not know where the danger zone lies, but there has to be one. Being on the very edge of usage patterns compared to all relievers has to be risky. If there's no risk in relieving there would be no relievers that get hurt throwing.

 

I wasn't trying to theorize anything. I'm just stating that Marmol's style and movement is conducive to a high pitch count pitcher. It doesn't matter what role he fills (starter or reliever), trying to get him to be a more efficient pitcher is probably a waste of time, and possibly reduces his effectiveness breaking out of the zone.

 

So for Lou, plugging him in with a 4 run lead to get sharp isn't likely to do anything for him. To protect him from injury, he just needs to be free to throw his game with fewer appearances.

 

I was talking about TT's theory that reliever innings are fine as long as they are fewer innings than a guy has thrown as a starter. I was not responding to anything you wrote.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Marmol is on pace for 85 appearances. Not that many when you consider the following ...

 

Howry had 84 in 2006 for us and 79 the year before

Wuertz of all people had 75 in 2005 for us

 

In fact we've had at least one pitcher have 75 appearances in every season 2003. And if you are thinking of saying the person changed constantly because the guys arm got worn out I give you Salomon Torres. Here is what he did the first three years he was a full time relief pitcher.

 

Pitched in at least 78 games every year including 94 in 2006. Overall he averaged just over 85 games a year or the pace Marmol is currently on. Each year he pitched more than 90 innings averaging just over 93 a year. Every year his ERA was 3.28 or lower. So far this year he has pitched a grand total of 2.2 innings less than Marmol with an ERA under 2.5.

 

Can every pitcher handle a heavy workload? Of course not but some can especially the ones that used to be starters. Marmol so far has seemed like one of the ones who can handle more. I'm sick of the continuing trend of babying pitchers. I'm not saying throw every pitcher a lot but the ones that handle it should get the extra work if they are really good. It especially bothers me with starters. Everyone made a big stink about Sabathia getting 241 innings last year and how it would hurt him for years to come. Maddux pitched more than that 7 times including three straight seasons with 263+ and led the league in innings 5 straight times. During the 90's Cox had three or four of starters pitching 220+. In 97 Maddux pitched 233 innings and was only 8th in the league in innings pitched.

 

Again not every pitcher can handle heavy workloads but most of the great ones can and I don't think anyone hear will say Marmol isn't great ... rant complete.

 

Maddux might not be a good example to use here, as he consistently throws 2.5 to 3.0 fewer pitches per inning than the average pitcher. The net effect of this when Maddux throws 263 innings, he's throwing about the same number of pitches as an average pitcher does in approximately 230 innings.

[TruffleShuffle]

guillermo mota pitched 105 relief innings in 2003 and 97 in 2004. he was excellent, with a WHIP close to 1.00 and a solid K-rate. since then he's struggled with injuries and has a WHIP averaging close to 1.4.

 

oscar villareal was #2 in relief innings in 2003. he spent most of 2004 and 2005 injured, and hasn't been particularly effective since 2003.

 

jim brower threw 193 relief innings in 2003-04. he was ineffective in 2005 and has spent the better part of the last three years bouncing between the minors and majors.

 

octavio dotel was ridden as hard as any middle reliever in the game during the early 2000s. he has struggled mightily with injuries since then.

 

scott proctor threw almost 190 innings in 2005-06. he's been awful this year, and his peripherals are way down since throwing 102.3 innings in 2005.

 

history has not been kind to middle relievers who have thrown 90+ innings for their teams. hopefully carlos will be healthy through this season, but it'd be unwise to count on him as a bullpen anchor beyond that.

[TruffleShuffle]

Relief pitches thrown, 2003:

Steve Sparks - 1624

Guillermo Mota - 1578

Juan Rincon - 1498

David Weathers - 1489

Oscar Villarreal - 1485

Francisco Cordero - 1474

Brad Lidge - 1397

Travis Harper - 1388

Keith Foulke - 1358

Braden Looper - 1352

 

2004:

Scot Shields - 1721

B.J. Ryan - 1612

Guillermo Mota - 1605

Kevin Gregg - 1537

Chad Cordero - 1515

Paul Quantrill - 1498

Justin Duchscherer - 1492

Octavio Dotel - 1476

Brad Lidge - 1475

Jim Brower - 1456

Juan Rincon - 1406

 

2005:

Scot Shields - 1509

Ugueth Urbina - 1443

Salomon Torres - 1420

Gary Majewski - 1420

Andy Sisco - 1403

Ryan Vogelsong - 1397

Ryan Madson - 1373

Lance Cormier - 1370

Brian Fuentes - 1338

Justin Duchscherer - 1335

Mike Wuertz - 1328

Juan Rincon - 1321

 

2006:

Scott Proctor - 1594

Jon Rauch - 1594

Ron Villone - 1482

Salomon Torres - 1476

Geoff Geary - 1470

Joaquin Benoit - 1449

Joel Zumaya - 1425

Aaron Heilman - 1413

Ruddy Lugo - 1398

Todd Wellemeyer - 1358

 

2007:

Heath Bell - 1533

Kevin Gregg - 1496

Saul Rivera - 1484

Scott Proctor - 1478

Joel Peralta - 1394

Carlos Villanueva - 1382

Jon Rauch - 1381

Jason Grilli - 1376

Aaron Heilman - 1362

Joaquin Benoit - 1355

Scot Shields - 1328

 

2008:

Joel Hanrahan - 762

Franquelis Osoria - 726

Carlos Marmol - 706

J.P. Howell - 697

Saul Rivera - 693

Brian Bass - 673

Aaron Heilman - 671

Sean Green - 664

Renyel Pinto - 664

Matt Guerrier - 641

Blaine Boyer - 639

[Tyrant]

Scot Shields seems to have done OK for himself after throwing a billion pitches as a reliever.

[TruffleShuffle]

agreed. roger clemens threw a ton of innings at a young age and he's one of the best pitchers ever. therefore, pitch counts or usage patterns are not important for starters or relievers.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

guillermo mota pitched 105 relief innings in 2003 and 97 in 2004. he was excellent, with a WHIP close to 1.00 and a solid K-rate. since then he's struggled with injuries and has a WHIP averaging close to 1.4.

 

oscar villareal was #2 in relief innings in 2003. he spent most of 2004 and 2005 injured, and hasn't been particularly effective since 2003.

 

jim brower threw 193 relief innings in 2003-04. he was ineffective in 2005 and has spent the better part of the last three years bouncing between the minors and majors.

 

octavio dotel was ridden as hard as any middle reliever in the game during the early 2000s. he has struggled mightily with injuries since then.

 

scott proctor threw almost 190 innings in 2005-06. he's been awful this year, and his peripherals are way down since throwing 102.3 innings in 2005.

 

history has not been kind to middle relievers who have thrown 90+ innings for their teams. hopefully carlos will be healthy through this season, but it'd be unwise to count on him as a bullpen anchor beyond that.

 

Mota threw 194 innings the previous 4 seasons combined before throwing 201 those two seasons. Same thing with Proctor. 156 IP in '03-'04, 188 in '05-'06.

 

Jim Brower is a journeyman who was not particularly good in his heavy use years and was 32 in 2005.

 

Dotel had his best 3 years following his year of heaviest use, and got hurt at age 31.

 

Villareal is the best example, but his minor league usage was such: 64 IP, 63, 141, 148, then 98 at the MLB level.

 

 

And even beyond the examples, relievers gain and lose effectiveness all the time independent of injury. You can find similar fluctuations among healthy relievers if they didn't get thrown into trash heap after a poor season.

[dew1679666265]

Just out of curiosity, does anybody have any idea how many pitches Marmol has thrown this season as compared to other relievers with similar workloads?

[rawaction]

This is a pretty interesting topic. There's really no right or wrong answer, unfortunately. Kerry Wood had the worst mechanics and got hurt. Prior had supposedly the best mechanics and got hurt. Zambrano's mechanics lie somewhere in between and he has been pushed past the threshold several times over the year, yet he has not been hurt. Every pitcher reacts differently to different workloads. John Smoltz is on the opposite end of his career of Marmol, but listens to his body more than any pitcher I can ever remember. He doesn't feel he can throw 100 pitches every 5 days, but is very comfortable (would be w/o injury and has been in the past) taking the ball for 1 inning, and occasionally 2, a few times a week.

 

I see reason to be concerned about Marmol's past usage. But it is clear that Lou was concerned too and is taking the proper steps to combat this. However, I don't think there's any way you can assume or predict he will get injured because of some arbitrary number such as 85 appearances or 100 relief innings.

[CubColtPacer]

Just out of curiosity, does anybody have any idea how many pitches Marmol has thrown this season as compared to other relievers with similar workloads?

 

He's 3rd overall in pitches thrown in relief work.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?split=128&league=mlb&season=2008&seasonType=2&sort=pitches&type=pitch3&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&state=0&college=0&country=0&hand=a&pos=all

[badger1679666666]

Just out of curiosity, does anybody have any idea how many pitches Marmol has thrown this season as compared to other relievers with similar workloads?

 

He's 3rd overall in pitches thrown in relief work.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?split=128&league=mlb&season=2008&seasonType=2&sort=pitches&type=pitch3&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&state=0&college=0&country=0&hand=a&pos=all

 

But he doesn't average a huge number of pitches per IP at least. Not even in the top 200 @ 16.5/IP. He has a lot of quick low-stress innings.

[CubbieBum]

Just out of curiosity, does anybody have any idea how many pitches Marmol has thrown this season as compared to other relievers with similar workloads?

 

He's 3rd overall in pitches thrown in relief work.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?split=128&league=mlb&season=2008&seasonType=2&sort=pitches&type=pitch3&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&state=0&college=0&country=0&hand=a&pos=all

 

But he doesn't average a huge number of pitches per IP at least. Not even in the top 200 @ 16.5/IP. He has a lot of quick low-stress innings.

 

yet have this thread is dedicated to how Marmol's style of pitching causes high pitch counts

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just out of curiosity, does anybody have any idea how many pitches Marmol has thrown this season as compared to other relievers with similar workloads?

 

He's 3rd overall in pitches thrown in relief work.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?split=128&league=mlb&season=2008&seasonType=2&sort=pitches&type=pitch3&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&state=0&college=0&country=0&hand=a&pos=all

 

But he doesn't average a huge number of pitches per IP at least. Not even in the top 200 @ 16.5/IP. He has a lot of quick low-stress innings.

 

To be fair, he jumps up to 81st when you make the minimum 20 IP.