2009 Draft Discussion Thread

[Outshined_One]

Turner has the biggest bonus demands, though. He wants Porcello money so he could slide a bit. Of course Detroit, Boston and the Yankees pick before the Cubs so it probably won't matter.

 

Top 10 First Baseman (including Ackley at 1B): http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-preview/2009/268145.html

 

Turner has also played his way into Top 5 consideration, from what I've been reading lately. Now, granted, Porcello was similarly considered to be a potential Top 5 pick. However, unlike Porcello in 2007, I don't think there are guys comparable to Wieters/Vitters/Moustakas/Parker/etc. in this draft. Considering the upper tier of this draft has been so in flux with flawed pitchers and flawed hitters, it'll be harder for teams in the Top 5/Top 10 to pass on Turner than it was in 2007 when teams passed on Porcello left and right.

[Guest]

I think top-5 might be stretching it based on what I've read online (obvious disclaimer: I am no expert). BA had him as the 6th best righty overall (behind Starsburg, White, Gibson, Scheppers and Crow) and Shelby Miller/Zack Wheeler are also very highly thought of prep righties. Plus there are the two top prep lefties who could be rated as highly as Turner (Matzek and Purke) and a few position players (Ackley, Green and Tate).

 

But either way, with pitching being such a strength in comparison to position players in this draft, there might be a chance a good pitcher slips.

[UK1679666180]

For those able to watch or record their DVR from their computer, Strasburg will be pitching on TV in about 50 minutes on the CBS college network (Channel 613 for DirecTV).

[Outshined_One]

I think top-5 might be stretching it based on what I've read online (obvious disclaimer: I am no expert). BA had him as the 6th best righty overall (behind Starsburg, White, Gibson, Scheppers and Crow) and Shelby Miller/Zack Wheeler are also very highly thought of prep righties. Plus there are the two top prep lefties who could be rated as highly as Turner (Matzek and Purke) and a few position players (Ackley, Green and Tate).

 

But either way, with pitching being such a strength in comparison to position players in this draft, there might be a chance a good pitcher slips.

 

Turner's been skyrocketing up the boards with his performances lately. Hitting 98 and striking out more than 2 batters an inning is quite the feat for someone his age.

 

Link

 

The routine has paid dividends this season. After Monday's 4-0 win over Clayton in the Class 3, District 5 playoffs, Turner is 7-1 with a 0.40 ERA. He has allowed 19 hits in 52 innings and has 105 strikeouts with only eight walks.

 

He points to his recent 18-strikeout, one-hitter against John Burroughs as possibly his best effort. But there are many to choose from, and he attributes the consistency to his regimen.

[RammyFanny]

For those able to watch or record their DVR from their computer, Strasburg will be pitching on TV in about 50 minutes on the CBS college network (Channel 613 for DirecTV).

Thanks for that. This will be my first time watching hm live.

[Guest]

Ask draft questions here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/chat/?1242864301

 

Chat is with Jerry Manuel in 52 minutes.

[TruffleShuffle]

BP did a mock draft:

 

31. Chicago Cubs

 

Another easy guess here, since the Cubs like Notre Dame guys, and this time, there's actually a guy worth the bonus, unlike Jeff Samardzija and Grant Johnson. With very good speed, center-field skills afield, and a smooth swing, outfielder A.J. Pollock has moved up from a second-round projection by showing a little power this year as well.

 

Selection: A.J. Pollock, OF, University of Notre Dame

[Guest]

Well, that's BA and BP with Pollock and PG Crosschecker went with Oklahoma State lefty Andrew Oliver.

 

Baseball America[/url]"]A.J. Pollock, Notre Dame, B-T: R-R

 

Pollock hasn't performed as well this spring as he did last summer in the Cape Cod League, where he was the MVP after finishing second in hitting (.377) and first in slugging (.556). While there's debate as to whether he's a true first-round talent, with a shortage of quality college hitters he should get selected in the bottom third of the round. Six-foot-1 and 200 pounds, Pollock stands out most for his athleticism and pure hitting ability from the right side. He has a simple approach, a quick bat and strong hands. Scouts do say he'll have to stop cheating out on his front side and stay back more on pitches in pro ball. Those who like Pollock say that the rest of his tools are solid, while those who don't say he doesn't have another plus tool and question his power. He projects as a 30 doubles/15 homers threat in the majors, and he's a slightly above-average runner who has plus speed once he gets going. Pollock also has good instincts and a solid arm in center field.

 

He's their 5th best CF in the draft. Meh.

[Guest]

BA's top 25 catchers: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-preview/2009/268142.html

BA's top 5 second baseman (no 1st rounders): http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-tracker/2009/268147.html

BA's top 15 shortstops: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-preview/2009/268150.html

BA's top 5 third baseman: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-tracker/2009/268146.html

BA's top 25 CFs: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-preview/2009/268149.html

BA's top 10 corner OFs (no 1st rounders): http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-preview/2009/268148.html

 

These are all the guys they value in the first 5-6 rounds at that position as of right now.

[Guest]

It’s still too early to get a good sense of how far first-round talents might drop because of signability. As of now, the three most likely candidates for a significant plunge are Cartersville (Ga.) HS outfielder Donavan Tate, Westminster Christian Academy (St. Louis) righthander Jacob Turner and Klein HS (Spring, Texas) lefty Matthew Purke.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=876

[Guest]

Only 1 Cubs related question from the chat:

 

Jon (Lexington, KY): Any chance James Paxton slides to the Cubs and would they take him?

 

John Manuel: Paxton definitely could be there at 31. He's a tough guy to get a read on. At his best, he's got sick stuff, but how often has he been at his best? How can a lefty who throws up to 97 and at times has good command of both his fastball and average-to-plus curve have a roughly 6.50 ERA in college? You can make a case for him in the first 15 picks, because he's Canadian & has a fresh arm, turns 21 in November (making very young for a college draft pick) and has a special arm. But he also has never made it through a full season without some kind of physical setback, including a mild knee issue this year. I don't think he'll be there at 31, but he's not a lock to be off the board at that stage.

 

Andy (Philly): Who will slide in a similar way to Tim Melville did a year ago?

 

John Manuel: Jim Callis gave some good candidates on the Draft Blog today, and Jacob Turner -- this year's Melville as the top pitcher in Missouri and also a UNC signee -- is the best candidate. I could see Kentrail Davis being a tough sign considering he had a difficult year and is tough to profile but is in a thin, thin year for college bats. I could see Chris Dwyer of Clemson falling; he's got more leverage than the average bear as a 21-year-old freshman and he's been erratic. Robert Stock is another; he'd be a 20 year old senior. If he doesn't get what he was expecting he could definitely return for another year at USC.

[Guest]

Ask draft questions here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/chat/?1242864301

 

Chat is with Jerry Manuel in 52 minutes.

 

Why is the Mets' manager doing a Baseball America chat? :wink:

[Guest]

On another note, is Davis High's Cody Keefer on any of those lists?

 

Are any UCD guys anywhere - Ty Kelly would probably be the only one who might be on there.

[Guest]

On another note, is Davis High's Cody Keefer on any of those lists?

 

Are any UCD guys anywhere - Ty Kelly would probably be the only one who might be on there.

 

After a quick look at it, I don't believe so.

[Guest]

On another note, is Davis High's Cody Keefer on any of those lists?

 

Are any UCD guys anywhere - Ty Kelly would probably be the only one who might be on there.

 

After a quick look at it, I don't believe so.

 

Thanks for looking.

[UK1679666180]

On another note, is Davis High's Cody Keefer on any of those lists?

 

Are any UCD guys anywhere - Ty Kelly would probably be the only one who might be on there.

 

Kelly and Suiter are projected to go in the middle rounds and Scoma in the later rounds/senior sign.

 

Keefer will likely go to in the early to mid rounds 10-20, although signability might be an issue (UCLA)

[Mephistopheles]

Boras clients:

 

RHP Stephen Strasburg, San Diego St

OF Dustin Ackley, North Carolina

SS Grant Green, Southern California

RHP Jacob Turner, Westminster Christian Academy (St. Louis, Missouri)

OF Donavan Tate, Cartersville HS (Georgia)

LHP Andy Oliver, Oklahoma State

LHP James Paxton, Kentucky

 

Kentrail Davis is also a Scott Boras client.

[Mephistopheles]

I think top-5 might be stretching it based on what I've read online (obvious disclaimer: I am no expert). BA had him as the 6th best righty overall (behind Starsburg, White, Gibson, Scheppers and Crow) and Shelby Miller/Zack Wheeler are also very highly thought of prep righties. Plus there are the two top prep lefties who could be rated as highly as Turner (Matzek and Purke) and a few position players (Ackley, Green and Tate).

 

But either way, with pitching being such a strength in comparison to position players in this draft, there might be a chance a good pitcher slips.

 

It's plausible that Jake Turner is top five among the players in the draft, but throwing in the money considerations for him, it's a bit of a reach. He's not significantly better than any of the other two or three top high school righties, if he's better at all. He's certainly not worth the difference in the bonus.

[Guest]

On another note, is Davis High's Cody Keefer on any of those lists?

 

Are any UCD guys anywhere - Ty Kelly would probably be the only one who might be on there.

 

Kelly and Suiter are projected to go in the middle rounds and Scoma in the later rounds/senior sign.

 

Keefer will likely go to in the early to mid rounds 10-20, although signability might be an issue (UCLA)

 

Thanks Ping. I'd heard stuff about a couple teams liking Keefer from the guy who wrote about DHS baseball for the paper but I didn't know what that means. He's also a big time homer so he could have thought the scouts were a little higher on Keefer than the scouts actually are. From what he was writing it sounded as if Keefer could go in the top-5 rounds but I didn't think he was quite that good.

 

As for the UCD guys, I had no idea on where they could possibly go, though it's not as if they have that many guys who could get drafted due to age and talent.

[UK1679666180]

He could go higher as all it takes is one scout to really like him, usually when there are guesses as to which round a guy will go, unless it's obvious, it's a well kept secret by the scouts.

[Guest]

Jonathan Mayo mocks the top 10:

 

1. Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State

2. Seattle Mariners: Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, North Carolina

3. San Diego Padres: Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Alex White, RHP, North Carolina

5. Baltimore Orioles: Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth Cats

6. San Francisco Giants: Michael Trout, OF, Millville Senior HS, N.J.

7. Atlanta Braves: Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS, Dallas, Ga.

8. Cincinnati Reds: Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri

9. Detroit Tigers: Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif.

10. Washington Nationals: Chad Jenkins, RHP, Kenesaw State

 

No Donvan Tate or Jacob Turner in the top 10.

 

Story on how the economy might affect the draft: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090519&content_id=4819680&vkey=draft2009&fext=.jsp

[Guest]

I think top-5 might be stretching it based on what I've read online (obvious disclaimer: I am no expert). BA had him as the 6th best righty overall (behind Starsburg, White, Gibson, Scheppers and Crow) and Shelby Miller/Zack Wheeler are also very highly thought of prep righties. Plus there are the two top prep lefties who could be rated as highly as Turner (Matzek and Purke) and a few position players (Ackley, Green and Tate).

 

But either way, with pitching being such a strength in comparison to position players in this draft, there might be a chance a good pitcher slips.

 

It's plausible that Jake Turner is top five among the players in the draft, but throwing in the money considerations for him, it's a bit of a reach. He's not significantly better than any of the other two or three top high school righties, if he's better at all. He's certainly not worth the difference in the bonus.

 

That's what I was thinking. There seems to be a plethora of prep arms at the top of this year's draft, making it easier for a guy like Turner to fall. Of course, the Tigers, Red Sox and Yankees all draft ahead of the Cubs and we're not even sure if the Cubs would spend a lot of money so that's all false hope on my part.

[Guest]

http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/05/24/2009-mlb-mock-draft

 

31) Chicago Cubs - Drew Storen RHP, Stanford

 

The Cubs have been on one of the most college-heavy teams in recent drafts, and figure to continue the trend this June. Storen is the top reliever on most boards (including mine), featuring a fastball that touches 96 mph with good life as well as a big slurvey breaking ball that projects as plus. What really separates Storen from most college relievers is his advanced command -- he has only walked 4.9% of batters faced this year. Storen should provide a quick, and fairly safe, return on investment.

 

Blah.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Please not another college reliever in the first.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'll be really pissed if we take a college reliever in the first round. I'd even prefer a toolsy high school outfielder over a college reliever.