We won't win with Wood

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm kind of curious (and I'm not using this to argue against using the best reliever in a setup/fireman role, I agree with that thought) how often a closer faces each group of hitters.

 

I keep seeing the "closer facing the 7-8-9 hitters" argument, but is that really any more likely than the closer facing the 1-2-3 or 3-4-5 hitters?

 

Again, it makes no difference in my opinion, I still feel that the best reliever should be used in the most important role (i.e. fireman). I'm just curious.

 

I think that was more of an example why the 9th isn't always the most important inning. I would guess it's roughly normally distributed between all 9 lineup possibilities.

[dew1679666265]

I'm kind of curious (and I'm not using this to argue against using the best reliever in a setup/fireman role, I agree with that thought) how often a closer faces each group of hitters.

 

I keep seeing the "closer facing the 7-8-9 hitters" argument, but is that really any more likely than the closer facing the 1-2-3 or 3-4-5 hitters?

 

Again, it makes no difference in my opinion, I still feel that the best reliever should be used in the most important role (i.e. fireman). I'm just curious.

 

I think that was more of an example why the 9th isn't always the most important inning. I would guess it's roughly normally distributed between all 9 lineup possibilities.

 

Probably, I've just seen 7-8-9 v 3-4-5 hitter situation argued many times on the board, as if it happened all the time.

[Fred Hornkohl]

I'm kind of curious (and I'm not using this to argue against using the best reliever in a setup/fireman role, I agree with that thought) how often a closer faces each group of hitters.

 

I keep seeing the "closer facing the 7-8-9 hitters" argument, but is that really any more likely than the closer facing the 1-2-3 or 3-4-5 hitters?

 

Again, it makes no difference in my opinion, I still feel that the best reliever should be used in the most important role (i.e. fireman). I'm just curious.

 

I think that was more of an example why the 9th isn't always the most important inning. I would guess it's roughly normally distributed between all 9 lineup possibilities.

 

Probably, I've just seen 7-8-9 v 3-4-5 hitter situation argued many times on the board, as if it happened all the time.

 

If this helps.... this is a distribution by batting order of 9th inning plate appearances.....

 

03/31 - 05/17       PA
batting 1st          9
batting 2nd         11
batting 3rd         14
batting 4th         10
batting 5th         12
batting 6th         12
batting 7th         11
batting 8th         15
batting 9th         11

[dew1679666265]

I'm kind of curious (and I'm not using this to argue against using the best reliever in a setup/fireman role, I agree with that thought) how often a closer faces each group of hitters.

 

I keep seeing the "closer facing the 7-8-9 hitters" argument, but is that really any more likely than the closer facing the 1-2-3 or 3-4-5 hitters?

 

Again, it makes no difference in my opinion, I still feel that the best reliever should be used in the most important role (i.e. fireman). I'm just curious.

 

I think that was more of an example why the 9th isn't always the most important inning. I would guess it's roughly normally distributed between all 9 lineup possibilities.

 

Probably, I've just seen 7-8-9 v 3-4-5 hitter situation argued many times on the board, as if it happened all the time.

 

If this helps.... this is a distribution by batting order of 9th inning plate appearances.....

 

03/31 - 05/17       PA
batting 1st          9
batting 2nd         11
batting 3rd         14
batting 4th         10
batting 5th         12
batting 6th         12
batting 7th         11
batting 8th         15
batting 9th         11

 

You're a great man Fred! Always coming through for us helpless bad-at-stats people. :D

 

So, if I'm reading this right, a closer will typically face some combination that includes the 3rd hitter or 8th hitter the most.

 

But, I'm not sure anything can be conclusively drawn from it.

[Fred Hornkohl]

I'm kind of curious (and I'm not using this to argue against using the best reliever in a setup/fireman role, I agree with that thought) how often a closer faces each group of hitters.

 

I keep seeing the "closer facing the 7-8-9 hitters" argument, but is that really any more likely than the closer facing the 1-2-3 or 3-4-5 hitters?

 

Again, it makes no difference in my opinion, I still feel that the best reliever should be used in the most important role (i.e. fireman). I'm just curious.

 

I think that was more of an example why the 9th isn't always the most important inning. I would guess it's roughly normally distributed between all 9 lineup possibilities.

 

Probably, I've just seen 7-8-9 v 3-4-5 hitter situation argued many times on the board, as if it happened all the time.

 

If this helps.... this is a distribution by batting order of 9th inning plate appearances.....

 

03/31 - 05/17       PA
batting 1st          9
batting 2nd         11
batting 3rd         14
batting 4th         10
batting 5th         12
batting 6th         12
batting 7th         11
batting 8th         15
batting 9th         11

 

You're a great man Fred! Always coming through for us helpless bad-at-stats people. :D

 

So, if I'm reading this right, a closer will typically face some combination that includes the 3rd hitter or 8th hitter the most.

 

But, I'm not sure anything can be conclusively drawn from it.

 

Yeah, but you've got a mean of 11.67 and a std dev of just under 2.... so, there's no real conclusion to draw. This is a pretty flat distribution.

[dew1679666265]

I'm kind of curious (and I'm not using this to argue against using the best reliever in a setup/fireman role, I agree with that thought) how often a closer faces each group of hitters.

 

I keep seeing the "closer facing the 7-8-9 hitters" argument, but is that really any more likely than the closer facing the 1-2-3 or 3-4-5 hitters?

 

Again, it makes no difference in my opinion, I still feel that the best reliever should be used in the most important role (i.e. fireman). I'm just curious.

 

I think that was more of an example why the 9th isn't always the most important inning. I would guess it's roughly normally distributed between all 9 lineup possibilities.

 

Probably, I've just seen 7-8-9 v 3-4-5 hitter situation argued many times on the board, as if it happened all the time.

 

If this helps.... this is a distribution by batting order of 9th inning plate appearances.....

 

03/31 - 05/17       PA
batting 1st          9
batting 2nd         11
batting 3rd         14
batting 4th         10
batting 5th         12
batting 6th         12
batting 7th         11
batting 8th         15
batting 9th         11

 

You're a great man Fred! Always coming through for us helpless bad-at-stats people. :D

 

So, if I'm reading this right, a closer will typically face some combination that includes the 3rd hitter or 8th hitter the most.

 

But, I'm not sure anything can be conclusively drawn from it.

 

Yeah, but you've got a mean of 11.67 and a std dev of just under 2.... so, there's no real conclusion to draw. This is a pretty flat distribution.

 

Yep, believe you're (and by extension SSR) right. Interesting.

[TruffleShuffle]

what a bum

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think we might need to trade for a closer if we hope to win the division. Maybe we could go after one with experience. Would Gagne, Isringhousen, or Borowksi be available?

[Soul]

Damn our Sham Closer. Damn him to hell.

[RynoRules]

I think we might need to trade for a closer if we hope to win the division. Maybe we could go after one with experience. Would Gagne, Isringhousen, or Borowksi be available?

 

Or go into the scrap pile for Roberto Hernandez or Jose Mesa. Hell, while we are at it let's look for Thigpen, Rojas, Mark Davis, or Alejandro Pena.

 

This thread is one of many in recent weeks that is an absolute pile of dung.

[erik316wttn]

I think we might need to trade for a closer if we hope to win the division. Maybe we could go after one with experience. Would Gagne, Isringhousen, or Borowksi be available?

 

Or go into the scrap pile for Roberto Hernandez or Jose Mesa. Hell, while we are at it let's look for Thigpen, Rojas, Mark Davis, or Alejandro Pena.

 

This thread is one of many in recent weeks that is an absolute pile of dung.

 

What's Antonio Alfonseca doing these days?

[BCVM22]

What's Antonio Alfonseca doing these days?

 

Amusing himself by sitting and counting to 12 on his hands.

Edited May 18, 2008 by BCVM22

[SouthSideRyan]

What's Antonio Alfonseca doing these days?

 

Amusing himself by sitting and counting to 11 (10.5?) on his hands.

 

12, unless you're saying he can't count that high.

[BCVM22]

12, unless you're saying he can't count that high.

 

Forgot he was extra finger-equipped on both hands.

[Fred Hornkohl]

CUBS are 17-5 in games when Kerry Wood pitches.

[Tracer Bullet]

CUBS are 17-5 in games when Kerry Wood pitches.

 

Strikes me as a relatively low percentage for a closer, actually.

 

[note: I fully support Wood as closer and have been happy with his performance; just making an observation]

[NCCubFan]

CUBS are 17-5 in games when Kerry Wood pitches.

 

Strikes me as a relatively low percentage for a closer, actually.

I disagree, since some of those games the Cubs were already losing when he came in. If that were the percentage in actual save situations that would be different.

[David]

CUBS are 17-5 in games when Kerry Wood pitches.

 

Strikes me as a relatively low percentage for a closer, actually.

I disagree, since some of those games the Cubs were already losing when he came in. If that were the percentage in actual save situations that would be different.

 

I think he's just saying that in general, it would seem to be a low winning percentage for games in which a given team's closer appears, given that they're coming in with a 9th inning lead the vast majority of the time.

 

The stat struck me the same way.

[jersey cubs fan]

CUBS are 17-5 in games when Kerry Wood pitches.

 

Strikes me as a relatively low percentage for a closer, actually.

I disagree, since some of those games the Cubs were already losing when he came in. If that were the percentage in actual save situations that would be different.

 

I think he's just saying that in general, it would seem to be a low winning percentage for games in which a given team's closer appears, given that they're coming in with a 9th inning lead the vast majority of the time.

 

The stat struck me the same way.

 

But closers appear in non-closing situations relatively frequently, whether it be tied games, or blowouts. I'm not sure if that's a low percentage or not. Just looking at the list of guys with most saves, Rodriguez has only appeared in one Angels loss. Sherrill has been in 1, Nathan has been in 3. Lyon has been in 1.

 

It looks like most closers have only appeared in 1-3 of their team's losses. The interesting thing with Wood is he's only been bad in 2 of those 5 losses. In 3 of them he did not give up a run or factor in the decision. They were just "getting some work in" situations or extra innings losses somebody else took the fall for.

 

On a sidenote, no other MLB closer has appeared in more games than Wood, making you wonder if it's really necessary for Lou to be finding non-save situations for Wood to work in.

[Lefty]

CUBS are 17-5 in games when Kerry Wood pitches.

 

Misleading stat of the day. Sort of like teams' records with 100 yard rushers.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I'm kind of curious (and I'm not using this to argue against using the best reliever in a setup/fireman role, I agree with that thought) how often a closer faces each group of hitters.

 

I keep seeing the "closer facing the 7-8-9 hitters" argument, but is that really any more likely than the closer facing the 1-2-3 or 3-4-5 hitters?

 

Again, it makes no difference in my opinion, I still feel that the best reliever should be used in the most important role (i.e. fireman). I'm just curious.

 

I think that was more of an example why the 9th isn't always the most important inning. I would guess it's roughly normally distributed between all 9 lineup possibilities.

 

Probably, I've just seen 7-8-9 v 3-4-5 hitter situation argued many times on the board, as if it happened all the time.

 

If this helps.... this is a distribution by batting order of 9th inning plate appearances.....

 

03/31 - 05/17       PA
batting 1st          9
batting 2nd         11
batting 3rd         14
batting 4th         10
batting 5th         12
batting 6th         12
batting 7th         11
batting 8th         15
batting 9th         11

 

You're a great man Fred! Always coming through for us helpless bad-at-stats people. :D

 

So, if I'm reading this right, a closer will typically face some combination that includes the 3rd hitter or 8th hitter the most.

 

But, I'm not sure anything can be conclusively drawn from it.

 

Yeah, but you've got a mean of 11.67 and a std dev of just under 2.... so, there's no real conclusion to draw. This is a pretty flat distribution.

the only logical conclusion is that you're always gonna face the 3rd and 8th hitters in the 9th

[Fred Hornkohl]

I'm kind of curious (and I'm not using this to argue against using the best reliever in a setup/fireman role, I agree with that thought) how often a closer faces each group of hitters.

 

I keep seeing the "closer facing the 7-8-9 hitters" argument, but is that really any more likely than the closer facing the 1-2-3 or 3-4-5 hitters?

 

Again, it makes no difference in my opinion, I still feel that the best reliever should be used in the most important role (i.e. fireman). I'm just curious.

 

I think that was more of an example why the 9th isn't always the most important inning. I would guess it's roughly normally distributed between all 9 lineup possibilities.

 

Probably, I've just seen 7-8-9 v 3-4-5 hitter situation argued many times on the board, as if it happened all the time.

 

If this helps.... this is a distribution by batting order of 9th inning plate appearances.....

 

03/31 - 05/17       PA
batting 1st          9
batting 2nd         11
batting 3rd         14
batting 4th         10
batting 5th         12
batting 6th         12
batting 7th         11
batting 8th         15
batting 9th         11

 

You're a great man Fred! Always coming through for us helpless bad-at-stats people. :D

 

So, if I'm reading this right, a closer will typically face some combination that includes the 3rd hitter or 8th hitter the most.

 

But, I'm not sure anything can be conclusively drawn from it.

 

Yeah, but you've got a mean of 11.67 and a std dev of just under 2.... so, there's no real conclusion to draw. This is a pretty flat distribution.

the only logical conclusion is that you're always gonna face the 3rd and 8th hitters in the 9th

 

That is neither logical, nor accurate. Is my sarcasm detector broken or something ?? :scratch:

[David]

Considering the source, yes.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

That is neither logical, nor accurate. Is my sarcasm detector broken or something ?? :scratch:

must be

[Tracer Bullet]

CUBS are 17-5 in games when Kerry Wood pitches.

 

Strikes me as a relatively low percentage for a closer, actually.

I disagree, since some of those games the Cubs were already losing when he came in. If that were the percentage in actual save situations that would be different.

 

I think he's just saying that in general, it would seem to be a low winning percentage for games in which a given team's closer appears, given that they're coming in with a 9th inning lead the vast majority of the time.

 

The stat struck me the same way.

 

But closers appear in non-closing situations relatively frequently, whether it be tied games, or blowouts. I'm not sure if that's a low percentage or not. Just looking at the list of guys with most saves, Rodriguez has only appeared in one Angels loss. Sherrill has been in 1, Nathan has been in 3. Lyon has been in 1.

 

It looks like most closers have only appeared in 1-3 of their team's losses. The interesting thing with Wood is he's only been bad in 2 of those 5 losses. In 3 of them he did not give up a run or factor in the decision. They were just "getting some work in" situations or extra innings losses somebody else took the fall for.

 

On a sidenote, no other MLB closer has appeared in more games than Wood, making you wonder if it's really necessary for Lou to be finding non-save situations for Wood to work in.

 

David's interpretation was right. I wasn't commenting on Wood's performance, it just seemed like a low percentage (esp given the team's overall winning %). And my other thought was the same as jersey's last comment - that seems like a lot of non-save situations, though I didn't even look into how it compared to other closers. For a guy with a history of arm trouble, I'd err on the side of fewer non-save outings.