18 STL April Wins = Franchise Record, 1st Place

[GhostRunner]

Someone please make me feel better by promising that this is a fluke and nothing more. Please re-affirm that baseball and the cosmos always "has a way" of evening things out, balancing the weights and making sure that things finish up as nature intended. And while you're at it, explain how Dave Duncan transforms a scrap-heap starter in Lohse into a #1 while awaiting the return of Mulder and Carpenter, and how this just flat out wasn't supposed to happen this way but here it is anyway. Also feel free to point out how absurd the thought of how everything "evens out" sounds when it comes from a fan of the century-of-misery Chicago Cubs.

 

Yeah, I know it's only April, but my blue blood is chilled at the moment, thinking about what may yet come. Lots has been said here before of Cardinals pixie dust and magic, but I'm more inclined to believe that "small birds perched on a bat" is a hieroglyph for "massive pain in a small bear's ass." It's worrying, to say the least. A month ago, all anyone figured was that there was one other giant (MIL) and one possible David (CIN) in the NL Central, with little thought given to what was surely a rebuilding season down in Mullet County, Missouri.

 

I'm probably over-reacting, but it still sucks.

[SouthSideRyan]

Unless the Cardinals taste the postseason chance here, and make a couple trades over the next couple months, you don't have to worry about them.

[sneakypower]

kip wells and looper had a good start last year too

 

theyre awful

[bhogg]

They played 2 more games this month than we did.

 

They are crappy.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm not worried.....yet.

[Laura]

Mulder's line tonight for the Memphis Redbirds:

 

3.2 IPs, 9H, 9R/7ER, 1K/1BB, 3HR. ERA -> 17.18

 

It might take him a while longer to rehab.

[JGalt73]

Enjoy... from BP...

 

Just a hair behind the Cubs in what was expected to be a rebuilding year, the Cardinals are doing it by throwing strikes. No NL pitching staff has walked fewer men than their 74, leading to the third-fewest runs allowed and second-best ERA in the league. Without overpowering stuff—165 strikeouts, a mere 11th in the league—Cards pitchers have been pounding the strike zone and taking their chances.

 

They’re winning this game of chance thanks to a strangely low home-run rate: just 19 allowed, third in the NL, in 243 1/3 innings. That number almost has to go up when you look at the pitchers on the staff. Just to pick on one guy, Kyle Lohse has thrown 34 1/3 innings without yielding a long ball. He has an ERA of 2.36 despite a 14/8 K/BB in that time. His G/F of 1.80 is out of whack with his career mark of 1.04. Lohse usually gives up a homer every seven or eight innings. Now, it’s possible this is a mid-career reinvention; it’s more likely that it’s 30 strange innings, and that he’ll go back to being Kyle Lohse shortly. The rest of the staff is similar—Braden Looper has allowed one homer in 26 2/3 innings; Ryan Franklin, of all people, none in 13 1/3 innings; Brad Thompson, one in 17 1/3 innings. These rates are unsustainable.

 

There’s a reason beyond the pitching staff for these figures. Clay Davenport noted last week that the Cards have played the weakest schedule in baseball. It’s weak largely because it’s been populated by teams that can’t hit. The Cards have played seven games against the Giants (.365 SLG, 14th in NL; 14 HR, last); six against the Astros (.410 SLG, seventh in NL); five against the Brewers (.385, 11th; almost all innings pitched by RHPs) and nine others against the Nationals, Rockies, Pirates, and Reds. The Cardinals have played 75 percent of their schedule against teams with below-average slugging percentages. When that changes, they’ll allow more home runs, more runs, and slip away from the top of the NL Central.

[C.C.]

Enjoy... from BP...

 

Just a hair behind the Cubs in what was expected to be a rebuilding year, the Cardinals are doing it by throwing strikes. No NL pitching staff has walked fewer men than their 74, leading to the third-fewest runs allowed and second-best ERA in the league. Without overpowering stuff—165 strikeouts, a mere 11th in the league—Cards pitchers have been pounding the strike zone and taking their chances.

 

They’re winning this game of chance thanks to a strangely low home-run rate: just 19 allowed, third in the NL, in 243 1/3 innings. That number almost has to go up when you look at the pitchers on the staff. Just to pick on one guy, Kyle Lohse has thrown 34 1/3 innings without yielding a long ball. He has an ERA of 2.36 despite a 14/8 K/BB in that time. His G/F of 1.80 is out of whack with his career mark of 1.04. Lohse usually gives up a homer every seven or eight innings. Now, it’s possible this is a mid-career reinvention; it’s more likely that it’s 30 strange innings, and that he’ll go back to being Kyle Lohse shortly. The rest of the staff is similar—Braden Looper has allowed one homer in 26 2/3 innings; Ryan Franklin, of all people, none in 13 1/3 innings; Brad Thompson, one in 17 1/3 innings. These rates are unsustainable.

 

There’s a reason beyond the pitching staff for these figures. Clay Davenport noted last week that the Cards have played the weakest schedule in baseball. It’s weak largely because it’s been populated by teams that can’t hit. The Cards have played seven games against the Giants (.365 SLG, 14th in NL; 14 HR, last); six against the Astros (.410 SLG, seventh in NL); five against the Brewers (.385, 11th; almost all innings pitched by RHPs) and nine others against the Nationals, Rockies, Pirates, and Reds. The Cardinals have played 75 percent of their schedule against teams with below-average slugging percentages. When that changes, they’ll allow more home runs, more runs, and slip away from the top of the NL Central.

 

That makes me feel better...

[wolf stansson]

Wins in the bank...

[cubweiser03]

Yeah the last parargraph from Sheehan is good perspective on their numbers, I hadnt paid that close attention. Ive looked at Wellemeyer and the IP/K numbers do look good though. I havent seen him pitch yet though, i want to see him besides the numbers.

[haltz]

Yeah the last parargraph from Sheehan is good perspective on their numbers, I hadnt paid that close attention. Ive looked at Wellemeyer and the IP/K numbers do look good though. I havent seen him pitch yet though, i want to see him besides the numbers.

The last paragraph from Sheehan sucks. He denounces things based on sample size (he's right here) then uses a POS sample size that encompasses a bunch of games where the Cardinals are the opponents. Not that it would really change much. Those aren't powerhouses, but it's still pretty stupid if he wants to put numbers on it.

 

If you want to feel better about this, note that the Cardinals have never once (since 1956 anyway) played 29 games in April, and only a handful of times (recently) more than 25, so this wins-counting record is dumb. They've had plenty of comparable starts before, and you just need to go back to Aug 6th to Sep 6th of last year to find a better stretch of games.

 

But it happened, and it bodes well for them having an actual shot this year. Something that looked like it wouldn't be the case a month ago. They aren't going to automatically, magically play worse than expected originally because they played well for a month though.

[wekse]

your first place st. louis cardinals....[expletive] i hate baseball.

[chitowngui]

guys.. its not coincidence the pitching is good.. duncan works wonders. look at their world series win a couple of years ago.. duncan made weaver look like cy young. cards will be here until at least july.

[BCVM22]

your first place st. louis cardinals....[expletive] i hate baseball.

 

A good series this weekend and hopefully we can wash that sentence out of our mouths for a while, if not for good.

[SouthSideRyan]

guys.. its not coincidence the pitching is good.. duncan works wonders. look at their world series win a couple of years ago.. duncan made weaver look like cy young. cards will be here until at least july.

 

In the physical sense yes, the Cards will be here til July. In the sense of hanging around in the race, I don't think the Cubs and Brewers have that kind of choke job in them.

[chitowngui]

[-X :shock:

 

I don't think the Cubs and Brewers have that kind of choke job in them.

[Yeti]

oh good, there's my chicken....still breathing...

[SouthSideRyan]

[-X :shock:

 

I don't think the Cubs and Brewers have that kind of choke job in them.

 

Yeah it's outrageous to think the 2 vastly more talented teams won't both simultaneously blow it because after all they can't tell people to count the ringz!! lol goat

[jaydee]

It is going to beautiful when the cards realize they suck, and nose dive in the standings.

[wolf stansson]

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/

in the game thread last night somebody remarked that albert’s go-ahead double wasn’t all that impressive, just a groundball with eyes; the same might be said of kennedy’s hit that tied the game back in the 2d inning. that, it turns out, is something we need to keep an eye on. per Baseball-Reference’s splits, the cardinal offense leads the league in seeing-eye rollers: they’re batting .276 on groundballs, nearly 50 points higher than the league average (.228). a 20-point bulge might be sustainable over a full season, but 50 points? not gonna happen. just ask yourself --- is adam kennedy really going to hit .329 all year? he’s hitting .250 on groundballs so far this year, vs a career average on grounders of .192. and kennedy hits a lot of groundballs . . . . . this is a red flag for an offense that so far hasn’t exhibited a whole lot of weapons other than the groundball through the hole; the cards rank 12th in the nl in both homers and stolen bases. they’re due a few additional homers from glaus and duncan, and those might help make up the difference when the groundballs stop hopping through as frequently. but even with the benefit of all those groundball hits, the cardinals rank just 9th in the league in scoring; there’s a danger they’ll sink several spots below that.

 

corollary: the cardinal defense is gobbling up grounders at a stupendous rate, holding opponents to a .184 average, or 44 points better than league average. this is unsustainable as well, but it’s less of a problem; the cardinals can afford to give up a few more singles as long as they continue to avoid walks and homeruns. unlike the middle-of-pack offense, the pitching currently ranks near the top of the league; it can lose a little altitude and still remain superior.

[wekse]

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/

in the game thread last night somebody remarked that albert’s go-ahead double wasn’t all that impressive, just a groundball with eyes; the same might be said of kennedy’s hit that tied the game back in the 2d inning. that, it turns out, is something we need to keep an eye on. per Baseball-Reference’s splits, the cardinal offense leads the league in seeing-eye rollers: they’re batting .276 on groundballs, nearly 50 points higher than the league average (.228). a 20-point bulge might be sustainable over a full season, but 50 points? not gonna happen. just ask yourself --- is adam kennedy really going to hit .329 all year? he’s hitting .250 on groundballs so far this year, vs a career average on grounders of .192. and kennedy hits a lot of groundballs . . . . . this is a red flag for an offense that so far hasn’t exhibited a whole lot of weapons other than the groundball through the hole; the cards rank 12th in the nl in both homers and stolen bases. they’re due a few additional homers from glaus and duncan, and those might help make up the difference when the groundballs stop hopping through as frequently. but even with the benefit of all those groundball hits, the cardinals rank just 9th in the league in scoring; there’s a danger they’ll sink several spots below that.

 

corollary: the cardinal defense is gobbling up grounders at a stupendous rate, holding opponents to a .184 average, or 44 points better than league average. this is unsustainable as well, but it’s less of a problem; the cardinals can afford to give up a few more singles as long as they continue to avoid walks and homeruns. unlike the middle-of-pack offense, the pitching currently ranks near the top of the league; it can lose a little altitude and still remain superior.

 

just stop it.

[wolf stansson]

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/

in the game thread last night somebody remarked that albert’s go-ahead double wasn’t all that impressive, just a groundball with eyes; the same might be said of kennedy’s hit that tied the game back in the 2d inning. that, it turns out, is something we need to keep an eye on. per Baseball-Reference’s splits, the cardinal offense leads the league in seeing-eye rollers: they’re batting .276 on groundballs, nearly 50 points higher than the league average (.228). a 20-point bulge might be sustainable over a full season, but 50 points? not gonna happen. just ask yourself --- is adam kennedy really going to hit .329 all year? he’s hitting .250 on groundballs so far this year, vs a career average on grounders of .192. and kennedy hits a lot of groundballs . . . . . this is a red flag for an offense that so far hasn’t exhibited a whole lot of weapons other than the groundball through the hole; the cards rank 12th in the nl in both homers and stolen bases. they’re due a few additional homers from glaus and duncan, and those might help make up the difference when the groundballs stop hopping through as frequently. but even with the benefit of all those groundball hits, the cardinals rank just 9th in the league in scoring; there’s a danger they’ll sink several spots below that.

 

corollary: the cardinal defense is gobbling up grounders at a stupendous rate, holding opponents to a .184 average, or 44 points better than league average. this is unsustainable as well, but it’s less of a problem; the cardinals can afford to give up a few more singles as long as they continue to avoid walks and homeruns. unlike the middle-of-pack offense, the pitching currently ranks near the top of the league; it can lose a little altitude and still remain superior.

 

just stop it.

Hey now, that was supposed to be for your benefit.

 

Edit - Guess what wekse, my man? Now you can order Bernie's BEST OF book!! https://www.thepost-dispatchstore.com/ProductDetail.cfm?PID=1187

[wekse]

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/

in the game thread last night somebody remarked that albert’s go-ahead double wasn’t all that impressive, just a groundball with eyes; the same might be said of kennedy’s hit that tied the game back in the 2d inning. that, it turns out, is something we need to keep an eye on. per Baseball-Reference’s splits, the cardinal offense leads the league in seeing-eye rollers: they’re batting .276 on groundballs, nearly 50 points higher than the league average (.228). a 20-point bulge might be sustainable over a full season, but 50 points? not gonna happen. just ask yourself --- is adam kennedy really going to hit .329 all year? he’s hitting .250 on groundballs so far this year, vs a career average on grounders of .192. and kennedy hits a lot of groundballs . . . . . this is a red flag for an offense that so far hasn’t exhibited a whole lot of weapons other than the groundball through the hole; the cards rank 12th in the nl in both homers and stolen bases. they’re due a few additional homers from glaus and duncan, and those might help make up the difference when the groundballs stop hopping through as frequently. but even with the benefit of all those groundball hits, the cardinals rank just 9th in the league in scoring; there’s a danger they’ll sink several spots below that.

 

corollary: the cardinal defense is gobbling up grounders at a stupendous rate, holding opponents to a .184 average, or 44 points better than league average. this is unsustainable as well, but it’s less of a problem; the cardinals can afford to give up a few more singles as long as they continue to avoid walks and homeruns. unlike the middle-of-pack offense, the pitching currently ranks near the top of the league; it can lose a little altitude and still remain superior.

 

just stop it.

Hey now, that was supposed to be for your benefit.

 

Edit - Guess what wekse, my man? Now you can order Bernie's BEST OF book!! https://www.thepost-dispatchstore.com/ProductDetail.cfm?PID=1187

 

i know what you're trying to do by posting that, you can't fool me brah.

 

does it come with crumbs scaped straight from the side of his mouth? if not, i want no part of that book.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The nagging thing about the Cardinals is that it's easy to look at their players and say they are underperforming, but they don't show any of the normal underlying causes of an overperform. They aren't getting lucky run distribution, which would show in their Pythagorean record. Their pitchers are showing good peripherals, which is really scary.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The nagging thing about the Cardinals is that it's easy to look at their players and say they are underperforming, but they don't show any of the normal underlying causes of an overperform. They aren't getting lucky run distribution, which would show in their Pythagorean record. Their pitchers are showing good peripherals, which is really scary.

 

Meh. Lohse did the same thing last April then got torched the rest of the year. Looper had a similar start last year as well and wilted under the workload. Wellemeyer's given up 6 HR already, and should fall off if everyone realizes that he can't throw anything besides his straight-as-an-arrow fastball for a strike(I swear I yelled this at the TV a dozen times last night). Also, on the whole I think their opponents have helped their numbers as well, we were the first team they'd played over 32 games that was in the upper half of the NL in OPS.