BP Ranks Cubs 4th in Baseball

[JGalt73]

The Cubs are 4th on the BP pre-season Hit List with a projected 93 wins...

 

The NL Central still forecasts as the league's weakest division (with a combined .495 winning percentage), but the Cubs look to have raised the bar beyond last year's 85-win division title. The addition of Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome gives the lineup four 30.0+ VORP hitters at its heart, and even if there's too much Ryan Theriot here for anyone's good, Geovany Soto and Felix Pie should provide upgrades if Lou Piniella leaves well enough alone. All eyes will be on Kerry Wood in his new guise as closer, but the supporting cast is strong enough to pick up the slack if he's limited by health.

 

42.7% Chance at NL Central

11.1% Wildcard

53.8% Playoffs

[javy knows my name]

FWIW (which is absolutely nothing), John Kruk picked us to win the World Series. I would really rather he didn't do that, but would instead just go away.

[witty alias]

Buster Olney picked the Cubs to win the WS, too.

[RynoRules]

I think we are still one bat away. Wouldn"t hurt to have another SP too.

[TruffleShuffle]

Buster Olney picked the Cubs to win the WS, too.

 

i thought he picked the indians to beat the cubs.

[B]

FWIW (which is absolutely nothing), John Kruk picked us to win the World Series. I would really rather he didn't do that, but would instead just go away.

 

Remember when he picked Randy Johnson to win 30 games for the Yankees.

[mcgoobs]

I think we are still one bat away. Wouldn"t hurt to have another SP too.

 

GlenAllen Hill is clean now, and always just a phone call away.

 

In a best case scenario the Cubs starting pitchers prove very durable and one of Marshall/Dempster/Marquis/Lieber/Gallagher turns into another infield bat or CF.

[Lockes Eye Scar]

FWIW (which is absolutely nothing), John Kruk picked us to win the World Series. I would really rather he didn't do that, but would instead just go away.

 

Remember when he picked Randy Johnson to win 30 games for the Yankees.

 

another one of his gems this year was Ryan Zimmerman hitting 50 HR

[Guest]

FWIW (which is absolutely nothing), John Kruk picked us to win the World Series. I would really rather he didn't do that, but would instead just go away.

 

Remember when he picked Randy Johnson to win 30 games for the Yankees.

 

another one of his gems this year was Ryan Zimmerman hitting 50 HR

He's on pace to hit 162...

[Dallas Green]

They didn't project that many wins in my copy of the BP book, so I wonder what changed?

[JGalt73]

They didn't project that many wins in my copy of the BP book, so I wonder what changed?

 

Here's the methodology...

We here at Baseball Prospectus are determined to put our best foot forward when it comes to predicting the 2008 season, and the foundation of our predictions is PECOTA. Once we've taken Nate Silver's basic projections, our staff adjusts for expected playing time, and then Clay Davenport plugs the revised numbers into his his Postseason Odds Report generator. The rankings presented at the end of each capsule (percentage chance of winning the division/wild card/reaching the postseason) are based on Clay's odds. If you note a disconnect between the projected winning percentage and the Average Won-Loss record, don't adjust your screen--the records are derived from Clay running a million seasons for the team, while the winning percentage is a club's projected third-order winning percentage. Keep in mind that not every last-minute development--Kelvim Escobar's injury, for example--was accounted for in these odds.

[Soul]

I'm officially worried. There hasn't been a time I can remember when everyone predicts us to win, and we actually do.

[Roast]

I'm officially worried. There hasn't been a time I can remember when everyone predicts us to win, and we actually do.

Well, considering we haven't won in 100 years.... :lol:

[C.C.]

Too many people are predicting us to win. Makes me nervous.

[Soul]

I'm officially worried. There hasn't been a time I can remember when everyone predicts us to win, and we actually do.

Well, considering we haven't won in 100 years.... :lol:

 

Oh, a wise guy eh? :D

[TheDude]

18 of 19 ESPNs contributers to their post-season predictions have the Cubs taking the division. The one guy who didn't has the Cubs in the wild card. So 100% have them in the playoffs.

 

3 of them have the Cubs in the World Series. Additionally, Kruk and Ravich, who are not among the 19 contributers for the web site article, both picked the Cubs to take the whole thing.

 

I think there is some subconscious marketing symmetry happening with many of these media folks, getting wrapped up the 100 year anniversary, "how perfect would that be" story.

 

There is no question that again the Cubs have a good team. This season reminds me so far of 2004, and there is more good than bad. And the bad is more nitpicky than anything else. So go Cubs go!

[rocket]

i know it betrays my sabremetrics love, but the cubs simply don't make the playoffs for 2 years in a row. it just doesn't happen.

[nolanwood]

i know it betrays my sabremetrics love, but the cubs simply don't make the playoffs for 2 years in a row. it just doesn't happen.

 

 

Exactly. If the Cubs miraculously made the playoffs in back to back years, then I suppose anything is possible, including a visit to the World Series. I see another stacked team that gets hit with a plethora of freak injuries.

[jersey cubs fan]

i know it betrays my sabremetrics love, but the cubs simply don't make the playoffs for 2 years in a row. it just doesn't happen.

 

But the people running the Cubs are some of the same baseball geniuses that miraculously led the Cubs to back to back .500 seasons a few years back, so anything is possible.

[rawaction]

This is 2004 all over again. Zambrano and Hill will be injured all season long. Derrek Lee will beaned in the head and be a shadow of his former self the rest of the season, before leaving early the final day of the season. Soriano and Scott Eyre will get into verbal spats with Len and Bob causing them to get fired. The Cubs finally trade for Brian Roberts at the last minute on July 31 and still collapse at the end of the season, falling short of the playoffs.

[CuseCubFan69]

Cowards! The Cubs will do just fine and I don't care how many "experts" have them winning.

[JGalt73]

I'm glad to know I'm not the only one scared when even the stats savvy guys have us winning...

 

Chicago Cubs (94-68, 795 RS, 677 RA). The Cubs don’t have a leadoff hitter, so adding Brian Roberts would be worth a bit more than the models suggest. The switch-hitter with OBP would really help a lineup that lists to the right side. As good as the 2003 and 1998 teams were, this is the best Cubs team in a very long time. They’ll score, they’ll strike out a bunch of guys, and the defense is pretty good. The Cubs aren’t just NL Central good; the Cubs are MLB good.

[Lefty]

I think 60 starts from Marquis and Dempster will be hard to overcome.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think 60 starts from Marquis and Dempster will be hard to overcome.

 

I have a feeling they either won't make 60 combined starts (most likely) or if they do, it will be because they surprised on the upside.

[Lefty]

I think 60 starts from Marquis and Dempster will be hard to overcome.

 

..if they do, it will be because they surprised on the upside.

 

Hard to imagine, but I guess I should view it as free call option on these guys.