Make it or break it season for Samardzija's Prospect Status?

[Mephistopheles]

Let's see. Let's call last year his first full season as a baseball player. Well sorta kinda maybe...he did not have an offseason of baseball related workouts. Let's face facts, Samardzija is already 23 years old and has struck out all of 82 guys in 171 innings as a professional. You don't need any fancy mathematics to tell you that's not very good. Still, given his raw pedigree, it's not surprising he didn't light up the hitters. Minor league hitters can hit a fastball...each and every one of them.

 

This year however, if Samardzija is truly going to be a real prospect we have to see tremendous strides across the board. He has to strike out 7 K/9 at a minimum and keep his GB rate over fifty percent. If he does not reach those goals, then he shouldn't be viewed as a solid prospect. If he shows some improvement, say K/9 around 5 flat, he's still nothing but your common prospect.

[Rob]

Let's see. Let's call last year his first full season as a baseball player. Well sorta kinda maybe...he did not have an offseason of baseball related workouts. Let's face facts, Samardzija is already 23 years old and has struck out all of 82 guys in 171 innings as a professional. You don't need any fancy mathematics to tell you that's not very good. Still, given his raw pedigree, it's not surprising he didn't light up the hitters. Minor league hitters can hit a fastball...each and every one of them.

 

This year however, if Samardzija is truly going to be a real prospect we have to see tremendous strides across the board. He has to strike out 7 K/9 at a minimum and keep his GB rate over fifty percent. If he does not reach those goals, then he shouldn't be viewed as a solid prospect. If he shows some improvement, say K/9 around 5 flat, he's still nothing but your common prospect.

 

The way I see it, Samardzija is such a unique case that we'd be doing a disservice to ourselves to try to put him on a schedule right away. Besides, nobody really thinks of him as a prospect... he's more of a pet project of Hendry and Wilken.

[craig]

The way I see it, Samardzija is such a unique case that we'd be doing a disservice to ourselves to try to put him on a schedule right away. Besides, nobody really thinks of him as a prospect... he's more of a pet project of Hendry and Wilken.

 

I agree with meph that this will be a huge year for Samardz, and we'll know tons more afterwards. It's possible to excuse things the first year. But if he's still K'ing nobody, allowing way too many HR's, and struggling in general after another year, the football excuse will run thin and he'll be on track for bust-hood. Or maybe he'll have much better command, both slider and change will be a lot better, and he'll have the same arm slot working for everything, resulting in much better deception, more K's, and fewer HR's. Maybe he'll look like a very legit rotation prospect. Most likely it will be something in between, not a great year, but not a horrible year either. Some progress, enough to keep the optimists hoping; but not enough to cynics off his case. Either way, we'll have a much better idea about him after the season.

 

I do agree that he's such a weird case that setting expectations, especially age-based ones, is tough. I also think that if he does end up reasonably successful, it's possible he may do so with a somewhat unusual profile. Of the big three stats, K's, HR's, and walks, I think there's a chance that he may be somewhat effective in spite of low K's by being an anti-HR and anti-walk guy. But, we'll see.

 

I completely disagree with the "nobody really thinks of him as a prospect... he's more of a pet project of Hendry and Wilken" line. I think he's very much a prospect. Like most meaningful prospects, he's a prospect with a good chance to fail. But he's got a not insignificant chance to be a meaningful player for the Cubs.

[badnews]

With Samardzija's money we could've signed Jordan Walden, Matt Latos, Lars Anderson, and still had money left over. Instead we signed Grant Johnson Version 2.

 

I'm trying to figure out who Samardzija's major league equivalent is. Is he on the fast track to becoming the next Scott Munter?

[Mephistopheles]

With Samardzija's money we could've signed Jordan Walden, Matt Latos, Lars Anderson, and still had money left over. Instead we signed Grant Johnson Version 2.

 

I'm trying to figure out who Samardzija's major league equivalent is. Is he on the fast track to becoming the next Scott Munter?

 

jason marquis

[craig]

jason marquis

 

Marquis is the poster-boy for the low-K groundballer who gives up plenty of HR's. A good match for 07 Sam. Low-K groundballers are supposed to offset the low K's by few HR's. But both Marquis and Sam gave up lots of them.

 

Hopefully another year and the HR's will drop a lot for Samardz. And the K's increase significantly, even if perhaps not as far as we'd like.

[Mephistopheles]

marquis also has good stuff, like samardzija. there are a lot of similarities between the two of them

[badnews]

What about Jason Johnson? I feel though we should find someone closer to Samardzija's frame. They're both 6-6 groundballers with questionable control and low K rates but higher gopher ball rates. The stuff isn't similar though, Johnson has an average fastball at best and relies more on a curveball than a slider.

[Ryno is God 23]

If he doesn't start to make strides in the rotation....how long before we see him working out of the pen?

[rawaction]

I've never been a big Samardzija fan. I've always been under the belief that his prospect status is not based on his ability to throw a mid-90s fastball, with good stuff but rather his ability to throw a mid-90s fastball, with good stuff and the atheticism to be a 1st round NFL drafted WR. I've always question whether Samardzija would be so highly thought of if he had played baseball full-time. It very well could be that his lack of full focus on college baseball covered up that he couldn't get hitters out over the long-term.

[CubinNY]

I've never been a big Samardzija fan. I've always been under the belief that his prospect status is not based on his ability to throw a mid-90s fastball, with good stuff but rather his ability to throw a mid-90s fastball, with good stuff and the atheticism to be a 1st round NFL drafted WR. I've always question whether Samardzija would be so highly thought of if he had played baseball full-time. It very well could be that his lack of full focus on college baseball covered up that he couldn't get hitters out over the long-term.

I endorse this post with the strongest possible recommendation.

 

I would have liked him much better had he been a 19 year old instead of a 21 year old.

 

In 171 IP in A and AA he's given up 199 hits and struck out 82. Those aren't good numbers. They look even worse considering the competition.

[jersey cubs fan]

I've never been a big Samardzija fan. I've always been under the belief that his prospect status is not based on his ability to throw a mid-90s fastball, with good stuff but rather his ability to throw a mid-90s fastball, with good stuff and the atheticism to be a 1st round NFL drafted WR. I've always question whether Samardzija would be so highly thought of if he had played baseball full-time. It very well could be that his lack of full focus on college baseball covered up that he couldn't get hitters out over the long-term.

I endorse this post with the strongest possible recommendation.

 

I would have liked him much better had he been a 19 year old instead of a 21 year old.

 

In 171 IP in A and AA he's given up 199 hits and struck out 82. Those aren't good numbers. They look even worse considering the competition.

 

That has been my assumption for a while, and will be until proven wrong.

 

Hendry has really thrown a ton of money around the past couple years without nearly enough to show for it. While it would be nice if the new owner cans him, my biggest fear is the new guy will see all the money wasted on mediocrity, and decide he can spend a lot less while getting the same results.

[The Voice of Reason]

I predict when it's all said and done Samardzija will have had a successful career

 

 

 

 

 

as a wider receiver in the NFL.

[biittner77]

I predict when it's all said and done Samardzija will have had a successful career

 

 

 

 

 

as a wider receiver in the NFL.

 

By the time the Cubs give up on him- assuming he busts- he won't have many prime years to have anything more than a Meh NFL career.

[Derwood]

considering how much money they've invested in him, it's unlikely they give up on him any time soon, right? mistakes were made, but this isn't an organization known for admitting to them

[The Voice of Reason]

I predict when it's all said and done Samardzija will have had a successful career

 

 

 

 

 

as a wider receiver in the NFL.

 

By the time the Cubs give up on him- assuming he busts- he won't have many prime years to have anything more than a Meh NFL career.

 

If he stays to the end of his contract, he'll be 26 - not that old for a possession receiver in the NFL. My guess is that they Cubs and him will come to a buyout agreement long before that enabling him to join the NFL.

[jersey cubs fan]

considering how much money they've invested in him, it's unlikely they give up on him any time soon, right? mistakes were made, but this isn't an organization known for admitting to them

 

I used to think that. But Hendry didn't take long to give up on Jacque Jones or Cesar Izturis, and reportedly has given up on Marquis. If Samardzija doesn't get any better, I could see them souring on him soon. And if a new owner brings in new management, there's no longer a tie to the kid. The player could also decide to give up in a couple years and salvage a football career if it's at all possible while he's still young.

[craig]

My friend on a different board is friends with a Baltimore scout who scouts the Cubs and has for years. He's spent extensive time at the cub camp each of the past several springs, so the fact that he's been at the Cub camp for over a week and has some more days left is nothing special and doesn't prove anything regarding Roberts trade.

 

But my friend passed on the following comment re Samardz:

 

"I have been told that Samardzija has hit 99 several times this spring. His fastball has a late break downwards that should bring him a lot of groundballs, but the break probably isn't sharp enough to gather a lot of strikeouts. .... Look for him to work mostly on improving his slider this year." Nothing new or surprising here, I know.

 

The report on hitting some 99's is encouraging. There was talk about upper 90's late in junior year, even though that hadn't been normal earlier in college. Last spring there was upper-90's velocity (including on TV broadcast). But once the minor league season rolled, it was only low-90's. So I have wondered a bit whether the big velocity was something of a myth, or whether he'd already worn down his arm and we'd never see serious speed again, or what. But if he's again hitting 99's, that would suggest his arm is uncompromised and he still does have plus-plus velocity. meph has comped Marquis, with merit; but if Marquis ever did approach 99, it was long before his Cub days. So in that scouting regard Samardz may be at a different level.

 

The comment about the fastball movement has good explanatory power for the puzzle with Samardz. The puzzle to me has always been: why do some scouts like him so much, when he doesn't have any K-stuff that makes anybody miss bats? That his late-sinking fastball is good enough to impress scouts but not good enough to miss bats really seems to explain that puzzle nicely. (That, and touching 99).

 

We'll see how things go with the slider and the change this year. I can understand why scouts would be pretty keen on a guy who can touch 99 and has good sinking break on his fastball. But for most big-league pitchers, most K's come on breaking stuff, or high fastballs, not on low fastballs. If his slider and change get better (or he really does incorporate a splitter that works), at least some K's should follow. But if he never gets any K's, that will probably reflect that his slider/change aren't progressing much.

 

The fast sinking GB fastball remains the key piece. And still gives some basis for the hope that he'll become a GB factory who can justify low K's with low HR's. Last year he did give up his share of HR's. Will be interesting to see how that goes this year, too. Where do the HR's come from, and will they always? If he always gives up HR's and never gets K's, the future is blah. Are the HR's the result of hanging sliders and no-deception changeups? If both of those pitches get better, will the HR's sink to an excellent asset, while the K's improve somewhat towards mediocre? Are the HR's the result of fastballs that don't locate; when he gets them up the movement vanishes and it's fast batting practice? Don't know. For some guys, HR's always stick with them, it's a function of their stuff. Others, it's really a matter of their command, and if/when the command gets better, the HR's can drop off sharply. Hopefully Samardz is in that latter class.

[craig]

Followup post:

 

"By the way, I was told that even though he has made great strides since last year, he is extremely raw. "At this point, he just doesn't know how to pitch". When I asked what this meant, he said that he is still pitching to the strike zone rather than to a specific spot."

[YearofDaCubs]

Good stuff, thanks for posting.