Cubs SPs 2007 BABIP

[hankp101]

I was just looking at some data and the Cubs starters allowed really low batting averages on balls in play. .293 for Marshall, .278 for Hill, .275 for Marquis, .273 for Zambrano and .270 for Lilly. I think I remember reading that the league average is generally just over .300. Doesn't it appear that we got some really good luck in that department? Should this be a big warning sign heading into '08, or do you guys think that the solid defense the Cubs played last year, pitcher characteristics, and the fact the NL Central wasn't very good are sufficient to explain the bulk of this?

[seanimal]

Has defensive quality shown to have a significant impact on BABIP?

[CubColtPacer]

That's a very interesting question. My guess is that most of it is that the Cubs have put together a rotation that typically allows a low BABIP is the main root of that. Look at these splits:

 

Z:

04: .284

05: .258

06: .265

07: .275

 

Lilly:

02: .241

03: .303

04: .272

05: .301

06: .300

07: .272

 

Hill:

06 (AAA): .286

06 (MLB): .261

07 (MLB): .280

 

Marquis:

04: .305

05: .268

06: .292

07: .280

 

Marshall

06: .288

07: .295

 

I had to use different data because Hill and Marshall have very little data. I also extended Lilly's data out 2 years to show that he has had now 3 lower BABIP seasons.

 

These pitchers have tended to come in with very good BABIP's. Now, pitchers like Lilly and Marquis could have a .300 BABIP season once again next year, although last year for either of them wasn't a complete aberration. Z, Hill, and Marshall were very consistent with their prior career (I threw Hill MLB 2005 out because he was throwing so much differently then).

 

What should benefit those 2 pitchers that may expect a regression in BABIP though is the Cubs defense next year. However good the Cubs defense was last year, with the addition of Fukudome, Soto, and Pie over Floyd, Kendall, and Jones should add quite a bit of help to that defensive ranking. With the combination of the typically low rating for all the pitchers and the great defense behind them, I think the BABIPs for the Cubs pitchers will not regress much at all, and may improve for pitchers like Z.

[FergieJ31]

Either the BABIP was a statistical fluke or it was the result of a demonstrated repeatable skill. I think late movement on pitches is a factor behind lower-than-average OppBABIP, in addition to good defense and field positioning. Cubs pitchers are certainly above average at missing bats, and a low OppBABIP is indicative of a lot of near-missed bats (choppers, weak grounders, pop-ups, etc)

 

But ... and I think I'll get flamed for this but I'll say it anyway ... having watched or listened to a good chunk of the 2007 year, I think the Cubs were definitely in the black in the luck department on the whole (whatever luck means). It's some karmic payback for the abysmal luck they had during the prior few ^H^H^H^H 99 years.

[Mephistopheles]

Has defensive quality shown to have a significant impact on BABIP?

 

Uh, yes.

 

The five most important statistics affecting WHIP are

 

1. Defense

2. Infield Fly Rate (a repeatable skill!)

3. Groundball Rate (a higher GB rate = higher BABIP!)

4. Knuckleballness.

5. Park Factors

 

 

League BABIP runs around .300 each year, but for the Cubs park/league it should run a little lower than that. Really the only guy who statistically does fine BABIP wise is Mr. Zambrano. He appears to be one of the rare few who controls it decently. Lilly, Hill not so much. especially not marquis

[SouthSideRyan]

When you say knuckleballness is that simply whether a guy throws a knuckleball or not? Or is it how similar a guy is to a knuckleballer, i.e. late/significant movement on pitches?

[Mephistopheles]

a guy who throws it most of the time

[seanimal]

What repeatable skill influences infield fly rates?

[Mephistopheles]

A few pitchers can repeat it. Usually your pitchers that live in on the high side of the strike zone. Barry Zito is one of them. His BABIP magic is real. It's relatively rare. Rich Hill might actually possess it. Lilly to a lesser extent.

[seanimal]

A combination of the up-and-out curve with the fastball or primarily one over the other that would tend to cause that?

[AlwaysaCub]

The Cubs as a team had the third highest defensive efficiency in the MLB, .712, behind only the Blue Jays and the BoSox. The defense converted balls in play into outs at a very high rate, so of course all the BABIPs for our pitcher would be slightly better than normal.

 

http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204024

 

Now as to the question about whether that's a fluke...I can't say. Aramis Ramirez was apparently a +20 3b, which is quite out of line with everything else he's ever done.

[hankp101]

Defensive efficiency is just 1-BABIP, so I guess it is really a question of whether defensive efficiency/BABIP is something that should be attributed primarily to a defense, to a pitcher, or perhaps to dumb luck. The rest of the NL Central didn't fare as well as the Cubs, so at least anecdotally it doesn't appear to be attributable to the quality of opponents faced. It's probably some sort of a combination of defense, repeatable pitching skills and luck; I just hope it turns out in this case to be more from the first 2 categories, and less due to luck.

[mdwilla]

these BABIPS will only improve with Fuko ,Pie,Soto all playing full time next season. Adding Roberts or Greene would make my head spin.

[Mephistopheles]

not really but w/e

[Ender]

Using the plus/minus system the Cubs had the 4th best fielding in the NL with a +52. The Brewers as a comparison had the 3rd worst with a -48. That means in theory at least that the Cubs made 100 more plays defensively than the Brewers would have which equals roughly 80 runs or 8 Wins. Which of course is the playoffs vs 2nd place.

 

Now the pitchers also have a plus/minus stat that relates to things like infield flies, groundballs etc and the Cubs were also 3rd in the NL in that stat which suggests the pitching as a whole SHOULD have a lower than normal BABIP even without the defense taken into account.

 

As for it being repeatable, that is pretty hard to say. Lee is a good 1B, Theriot scouts like an average defensive player but was above average last year. Aramis has been below average his entire career and was above average last year. My guess is the IF defense regresses this year. However the OF defense should be pretty good if scouting reports on Fukudome are accurate.

[XZero771679666304]

Using the plus/minus system the Cubs had the 4th best fielding in the NL with a +52. The Brewers as a comparison had the 3rd worst with a -48. That means in theory at least that the Cubs made 100 more plays defensively than the Brewers would have which equals roughly 80 runs or 8 Wins. Which of course is the playoffs vs 2nd place.

 

Now the pitchers also have a plus/minus stat that relates to things like infield flies, groundballs etc and the Cubs were also 3rd in the NL in that stat which suggests the pitching as a whole SHOULD have a lower than normal BABIP even without the defense taken into account.

 

As for it being repeatable, that is pretty hard to say. Lee is a good 1B, Theriot scouts like an average defensive player but was above average last year. Aramis has been below average his entire career and was above average last year. My guess is the IF defense regresses this year. However the OF defense should be pretty good if scouting reports on Fukudome are accurate.

 

You are right about Theriot. But Ramirez has been getting better each year, and Lee had a down year in 2007. If Pie actually gets much time, that will help a lot. Felix is a stellar defender. I am going to reserve judgment on Kosuke.

[javy knows my name]

Using the plus/minus system the Cubs had the 4th best fielding in the NL with a +52. The Brewers as a comparison had the 3rd worst with a -48. That means in theory at least that the Cubs made 100 more plays defensively than the Brewers would have which equals roughly 80 runs or 8 Wins. Which of course is the playoffs vs 2nd place.

 

Now the pitchers also have a plus/minus stat that relates to things like infield flies, groundballs etc and the Cubs were also 3rd in the NL in that stat which suggests the pitching as a whole SHOULD have a lower than normal BABIP even without the defense taken into account.

 

As for it being repeatable, that is pretty hard to say. Lee is a good 1B, Theriot scouts like an average defensive player but was above average last year. Aramis has been below average his entire career and was above average last year. My guess is the IF defense regresses this year. However the OF defense should be pretty good if scouting reports on Fukudome are accurate.

Unless Hendry becomes somehow incapacitated for the rest of the offseason, I think there is about a 10% chance of this happening. I refuse to believe Lee is declining at first base, and Aramis' great defensive year last year will at least be repeated, as he's gotten significantly better every year. Not to mention the almost certainty that Hendry will overpay for some solid defensive second basemen to neutralize Derosa :evil:

[biittner77]

I can't remember does BABIP include HRs?

[imb]

I can't remember does BABIP include HRs?

 

A home run isn't a ball in play, so no.

[biittner77]

I can't remember does BABIP include HRs?

 

A home run isn't a ball in play, so no.

 

So is there a correlation between giving up a lot of HRs and a lower BABIP? Without looking it up, last year seemed like Zambrano gave up a lot of HRs yet his BABIP still went up 10 points.