WSCR Rumor?

[HoopsCubs]

Screw it... just put Fukudome in CF, and let Zambrano play RF on his off days. He'd hit above Theriot in the order!

 

Deal!

 

I do get the strong sense that Hendry is not done yet.

[questionmarkgrace]

I say trade hill while his value is at its peak. Dont wait until he becomes Zito 07 or worse. Besides at best you're looking at Al Lieter here. Hill lacks quality secondary pitches, has controll problems, gives up the long ball in a small park, throws too many pitches, and lacks mental toughness.

 

 

Bedard are you kidding? this guy regularly faces the thoughest line ups in the toughest division in baseball and has been very successful. Getting Brian Roberts for a few prospects as well makes this a no brainer.

[Rob]

I say trade hill while his value is at its peak. Dont wait until he becomes Zito 07 or worse. Besides at best you're looking at Al Lieter here. Hill lacks quality secondary pitches, has controll problems, gives up the long ball in a small park, throws too many pitches, and lacks mental toughness.

 

Ok, first off, let's throw out that ridiculous mental toughness shtick. Nobody in here is out on the mound with him, so let's not pretend we know what's going on.

 

Secondly, how do you figure those comparisons besides a lefty with a good curve? At any rate, Hill's value is likely going to go up as his strikeout rate catches up to his minor league rate.

 

Third, of our main 4 starters (Z, Lilly, Hill, and Marquis), Hill threw the next-to-least number of pitches per plate appearance. Only Marquis threw fewer per at bat.

 

And Finally, Hill had a significantly lower than league average BB/9.

 

I just can't figure out your logic behind these thoughts.

[Sammy Sofa]

I say trade hill while his value is at its peak. Dont wait until he becomes Zito 07 or worse. Besides at best you're looking at Al Lieter here. Hill lacks quality secondary pitches, has controll problems, gives up the long ball in a small park, throws too many pitches, and lacks mental toughness.

 

 

Bedard are you kidding? this guy regularly faces the thoughest line ups in the toughest division in baseball and has been very successful. Getting Brian Roberts for a few prospects as well makes this a no brainer.

 

It's ironic that people are clamoring for dumping valuable chunks of our team for Bedard, a young pitcher already with a significant and chronic injury history, while others are celebrating gleefully the release of the "weak" Mark Prior.

[nilodnayr]

Hills opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 730

Bedards opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 744

 

 

hey questionmarkgrace....see above

[E.J.]

Hills opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 730

Bedards opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 744

 

 

hey questionmarkgrace....see above

 

I don't think we should trade Hill for Bedard, but I also don't think it's fair to compare these numbers. Bedard pitched in the much tougher AL East.

[nilodnayr]

Hills opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 730

Bedards opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 744

 

 

hey questionmarkgrace....see above

 

I don't think we should trade Hill for Bedard, but I also don't think it's fair to compare these numbers. Bedard pitched in the much tougher AL East.

 

Um, thats what the stat above debunks (at least for 2007). Tougher by 014 OPS points.

 

Thats not the OPS allowed by the pitchers I'm quoting. Thats the total OPS of the batters they face (ie the OPS those batters have for the year). It shows that Hill basically faced the same quality of hitters that Bedard faced.

[mul21]

Hills opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 730

Bedards opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 744

 

 

hey questionmarkgrace....see above

 

I don't think we should trade Hill for Bedard, but I also don't think it's fair to compare these numbers. Bedard pitched in the much tougher AL East.

 

Um, thats what the stat above debunks (at least for 2007). Tougher by 014 OPS points.

 

Thats not the OPS allowed by the pitchers I'm quoting. Thats the total OPS of the batters they face (ie the OPS those batters have for the year). It shows that Hill basically faced the same quality of hitters that Bedard faced.

 

OK, that does make Hill look better then. It did appear that you were pointing out the OPS against and not the total OPS of batters faced.

[questionmarkgrace]

come on, al east hitters are equivilent to those of the NL central? Thats absurd.

 

As for his mental toughness. I point toward his era with men on base, his inability to make adjustments in high pressure situations and his tendency to give up the long ball. You may see that as something else, but I see it as being rex grossmanesque ie cant take the pressure.

 

Also assuming that his k rate will equal that of his minor league record is ignorant. Double A and Triple A hitters usually have trouble hitting curve balls and breaking balls. Good major leaguers dont.

 

His stuff just isnt that great. His curve is good but 88-90mph fastball with out another secondary pitch isnt going to work in his favor. I say trade him now before he gets worse. You and I both know that the league makes adjustments they'll do the same with him and he has nothing else is his repotoire to throw them off. Trade him while he still has value.

[E.J.]

Hills opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 730

Bedards opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 744

 

 

hey questionmarkgrace....see above

 

I don't think we should trade Hill for Bedard, but I also don't think it's fair to compare these numbers. Bedard pitched in the much tougher AL East.

 

Um, thats what the stat above debunks (at least for 2007). Tougher by 014 OPS points.

 

Thats not the OPS allowed by the pitchers I'm quoting. Thats the total OPS of the batters they face (ie the OPS those batters have for the year). It shows that Hill basically faced the same quality of hitters that Bedard faced.

 

Sorry. I thought you were showing OPS against.

[nilodnayr]

come on, al east hitters are equivilent to those of the NL central? Thats absurd.

 

 

On the whole? Sure, AL east hitters are probably better than NL central hitters, thats not what the stat proves at all. The evidence shows that in 2007 Bedard and Hill faced about the same level of hitters. Theres a big difference between those two statements. Its absurd to ignore the facts.

[FergieJ31]

Hills opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 730

Bedards opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 744

 

What is the source for these numbers?

[nilodnayr]

Hills opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 730

Bedards opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 744

 

What is the source for these numbers?

 

Baseball Prospectus. I believe their stats page is only available to members.

[davearm2]

Hills opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 730

Bedards opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 744

 

 

hey questionmarkgrace....see above

 

I don't think we should trade Hill for Bedard, but I also don't think it's fair to compare these numbers. Bedard pitched in the much tougher AL East.

 

Um, thats what the stat above debunks (at least for 2007). Tougher by 014 OPS points.

 

Thats not the OPS allowed by the pitchers I'm quoting. Thats the total OPS of the batters they face (ie the OPS those batters have for the year). It shows that Hill basically faced the same quality of hitters that Bedard faced.

That's a flawed conclusion.

 

Go back to your numbers, and replace National League with "High School" and American League with "New York Yankees," and see if it still makes sense.

 

Basically you'd be concluding that high school hitters are the same quality as NYY hitters, since they had the same OPS.

 

Obviously the key element being ignored is the disparity in the quality of the pitching each group faces.

[jersey cubs fan]

Obviously the key element being ignored is the disparity in the quality of the pitching each group faces.

 

People want to believe that an AL pitchers numbers would look better in the NL because they'd be facing lesser hitters in the NL, and that NL hitters numbers would be worse in the AL because they'd be facing better pitchers.

 

I don't think you can have it both ways. People go beyond overboard in bringing up differences in the AL and NL. The main difference in pitcher numbers is the presence of the DH. Mediocre AL hitters don't just come to the NL and flourish because it's the NL.

[Hosak8]

Obviously the key element being ignored is the disparity in the quality of the pitching each group faces.

 

People want to believe that an AL pitchers numbers would look better in the NL because they'd be facing lesser hitters in the NL, and that NL hitters numbers would be worse in the AL because they'd be facing better pitchers.

 

I don't think you can have it both ways. People go beyond overboard in bringing up differences in the AL and NL. The main difference in pitcher numbers is the presence of the DH. Mediocre AL hitters don't just come to the NL and flourish because it's the NL.

 

The DH versus a pitcher is the biggest difference, as the top hitters in the NL absolutely equate to the top in the AL. Pujols, Cabrera, Holliday, etc stack up to ARod, Manny, Vlad, et al.

 

However, you cannot argue the fact that NL pitchers as a group usually end up with lower ERAs and WHIPs than their AL conunterparts.

[wilk]

Hint: Stop ignoring everything.

[jersey cubs fan]

Obviously the key element being ignored is the disparity in the quality of the pitching each group faces.

 

People want to believe that an AL pitchers numbers would look better in the NL because they'd be facing lesser hitters in the NL, and that NL hitters numbers would be worse in the AL because they'd be facing better pitchers.

 

I don't think you can have it both ways. People go beyond overboard in bringing up differences in the AL and NL. The main difference in pitcher numbers is the presence of the DH. Mediocre AL hitters don't just come to the NL and flourish because it's the NL.

 

The DH versus a pitcher is the biggest difference, as the top hitters in the NL absolutely equate to the top in the AL. Pujols, Cabrera, Holliday, etc stack up to ARod, Manny, Vlad, et al.

 

However, you cannot argue the fact that NL pitchers as a group usually end up with lower ERAs and WHIPs than their AL conunterparts.

 

Right, mostly because they have to face a DH instead of a pitcher. And while banged up guys have to take the day off in the NL, they can slide into DH in the AL.

[Guest]

Hills opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 730

Bedards opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 744

 

 

hey questionmarkgrace....see above

 

I don't think we should trade Hill for Bedard, but I also don't think it's fair to compare these numbers. Bedard pitched in the much tougher AL East.

 

Um, thats what the stat above debunks (at least for 2007). Tougher by 014 OPS points.

 

Thats not the OPS allowed by the pitchers I'm quoting. Thats the total OPS of the batters they face (ie the OPS those batters have for the year). It shows that Hill basically faced the same quality of hitters that Bedard faced.

 

Does that factor in how many times Hill and Bedard faced each hitter?

 

By that I mean, if Bedard faces a guy with a OPS of 1.000 25 times and a guy with an OPS of .700 once, do each of those factor in evenly (i.e. (.700+1.000)/2 = .850) or is it weighted (i.e. (1.000*25 + .700*1)/26 = .988). I would assume it's the latter because the former is pretty much meaningless but I want to be sure.

[nilodnayr]

Hills opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 730

Bedards opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 744

 

 

hey questionmarkgrace....see above

 

I don't think we should trade Hill for Bedard, but I also don't think it's fair to compare these numbers. Bedard pitched in the much tougher AL East.

 

Um, thats what the stat above debunks (at least for 2007). Tougher by 014 OPS points.

 

Thats not the OPS allowed by the pitchers I'm quoting. Thats the total OPS of the batters they face (ie the OPS those batters have for the year). It shows that Hill basically faced the same quality of hitters that Bedard faced.

 

Does that factor in how many times Hill and Bedard faced each hitter?

 

By that I mean, if Bedard faces a guy with a OPS of 1.000 25 times and a guy with an OPS of .700 once, do each of those factor in evenly (i.e. (.700+1.000)/2 = .850) or is it weighted (i.e. (1.000*25 + .700*1)/26 = .988). I would assume it's the latter because the former is pretty much meaningless but I want to be sure.

 

Its a weighted average.

[nilodnayr]

Hills opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 730

Bedards opposing batters OPS in 2007 = 744

 

 

hey questionmarkgrace....see above

 

I don't think we should trade Hill for Bedard, but I also don't think it's fair to compare these numbers. Bedard pitched in the much tougher AL East.

 

Um, thats what the stat above debunks (at least for 2007). Tougher by 014 OPS points.

 

Thats not the OPS allowed by the pitchers I'm quoting. Thats the total OPS of the batters they face (ie the OPS those batters have for the year). It shows that Hill basically faced the same quality of hitters that Bedard faced.

That's a flawed conclusion.

 

Go back to your numbers, and replace National League with "High School" and American League with "New York Yankees," and see if it still makes sense.

 

Basically you'd be concluding that high school hitters are the same quality as NYY hitters, since they had the same OPS.

 

Obviously the key element being ignored is the disparity in the quality of the pitching each group faces.

 

Ok, how about I 'normalize' and list the OPS of all the AL East starters(note, again this is not OPS against)

 

O's

Cabrera-767

Trax-762

Burres-761

Guthrie-758

Bedard-744

 

BoSox

Schilling-775

Wakefeild-767

Dice-K-762

Tavarez-758

Beckett-757

 

Yanks

Clemens-768

Muss-765

Hughes-764

Wang-761

Pettite-759

 

Rays

Hammel-785

Shields-768

Sonny-765

Jackson-759

Kaz-752

 

Jays

Halladay-775

Marcum-770

Towers-770

McGowan-759

Litsch-763

Burnett-759

Edited December 13, 2007 by nilodnayr

[fromthestretch]

As for his mental toughness. I point toward his era with men on base, his inability to make adjustments in high pressure situations and his tendency to give up the long ball. You may see that as something else, but I see it as being rex grossmanesque ie cant take the pressure.

 

I see it as your eyes deceiving you.

 

Opponents hit .228/.296/.396 with runners on and .229/.302/.382 with men in scoring position against Hill. Overall they hit .235/.305/.394 against him for the season. I'd say that pretty much shows the pressure doesn't get to him with runners on base.

 

Curveball pitchers are going to give up the long ball occasionally. As long as he's not putting guys on ahead of those home runs, the damage will be limited.

[abuck1220]

 

As for his mental toughness. I point toward his era with men on base

 

 

great stuff, really. you think the reason his era with men on base is higher than his era with the bases empty is because...there's men on base?? that's like saying he gives up more grand slams when the bases are loaded than he does when the bases are empty or he gives up more stolen bases when there's guys on base.

 

average against with men on base: .228

average against with the bases empty: .239

[jersey cubs fan]

 

As for his mental toughness. I point toward his era with men on base

 

 

great stuff, really. you think the reason his era with men on base is higher than his era with the bases empty is because...there's men on base?? that's like saying he gives up more grand slams when the bases are loaded than he does when the bases are empty or he gives up more stolen bases when there's guys on base.

 

average against with men on base: .228

average against with the bases empty: .239

 

Numbers don't tell the whole story.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What's even more staggering is that I'm pretty sure the vast majority of pitchers have worse numbers with men on base just because of the nature of the situation. Throwing from the stretch, good hitters coming after one another, etc.