What is the Biggest Need?

Abe Frohman · October 24, 2007

Would the upgrade from Murton to Abreu be worth the price? Abreu will be turning 34 and had an OPS of .814 this year, while Murton just turned 26 and had an OPS of .791. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Murton out performed Abreu next season.

Huh? Abreu is a guy who will probably score 100 runs, hit 20 HR, drive in 100, walk 100 times, and steal 30 bases. I wouldn't be upset with Murton starting in RF every day, but to expect him to compete with those numbers isn't very realistic.

I do agree with you on the argument that it might not be worth it, as Abreu is going to demand anywhere from $10-15 million - money that can be spent elsewhere. The Cubs are RH heavy in the lineup, though. Need some LH power, and another solid starter would be good.

nilodnayr · October 24, 2007

Would the upgrade from Murton to Abreu be worth the price? Abreu will be turning 34 and had an OPS of .814 this year, while Murton just turned 26 and had an OPS of .791. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Murton out performed Abreu next season.

Bah, beat me to it...

I love Abreu, but thats more for what he previously did than what hes going to do in the future. Hes essentially regressed to a bit better version of Murton. Abreu hasn't IsoP'ed over 200 since 2004. Its going to be hard to match the upgrade you could realistically get at SS by upgrading in the OF. It would require a Bonds/Dunn/A. Jones.

VanceJergins · October 24, 2007

Would the upgrade from Murton to Abreu be worth the price? Abreu will be turning 34 and had an OPS of .814 this year, while Murton just turned 26 and had an OPS of .791. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Murton out performed Abreu next season.

Huh? Abreu is a guy who will probably score 100 runs, hit 20 HR, drive in 100, walk 100 times, and steal 30 bases. I wouldn't be upset with Murton starting in RF every day, but to expect him to compete with those numbers isn't very realistic.

I do agree with you on the argument that it might not be worth it, as Abreu is going to demand anywhere from $10-15 million - money that can be spent elsewhere. The Cubs are RH heavy in the lineup, though. Need some LH power, and another solid starter would be good.

The only things he did last year that are on your list are score over 100 and knock in over 100 and he was on the Yankees which helped. I definitely think Murton will be able to compete with the numbers Abreu puts up for the remainder of his career. He'll probably never be as good as Abreu was during his prime, but Abreu is past his prime.

CyHawk_Cub · October 24, 2007

Biggest need is an owner, and ASAP.

Followed closely by a new GM

apete6 · October 24, 2007

We need one more bat. I don't think it matters if it comes from CF, RF, or SS as long as it is in one of those areas. We can live with what we have in-house at any of those positions as long as one is greatly upgraded.

I'd love to trade for Renteria or Tejeda if possible as I think that would do the most good.

However, signing Bonds and shifting Soriano to right might do the trick as well.

I'd kick the tires on Andruw Jones for CF.

If Arod opts out, he's obviously the direction to go.

I'd also be happy with Fukudome.

We haven't won the WS in almost 100 years, why not sign Satan himself (Bonds) to captain the ship towards baseball hell? Brilliant. Sign me up. If there's anywhere Bonds can still play the outfield, its Wrigley...

Then trade Jones & Gallagher for Renteria + prospect. Here is your lineup:

Soriano RF

Renteria SS

Lee 1B

Bonds LF (Murton when Bonds needs rest)

Ramirez 3B

DeRosa 2B

Soto C

Pie CF

The only thing is, if you trade Jones, you need someone on the bench who can play CF if/when Pie is sucking. (Pagan???)

Abe Frohman · October 24, 2007

Huh? Abreu is a guy who will probably score 100 runs, hit 20 HR, drive in 100, walk 100 times, and steal 30 bases. I wouldn't be upset with Murton starting in RF every day, but to expect him to compete with those numbers isn't very realistic.

I do agree with you on the argument that it might not be worth it, as Abreu is going to demand anywhere from $10-15 million - money that can be spent elsewhere. The Cubs are RH heavy in the lineup, though. Need some LH power, and another solid starter would be good.

The only things he did last year that are on your list are score over 100 and knock in over 100 and he was on the Yankees which helped. I definitely think Murton will be able to compete with the numbers Abreu puts up for the remainder of his career. He'll probably never be as good as Abreu was during his prime, but Abreu is past his prime.

Those things I listed are just about Abreu's career averages. You can expect something in the neighborhood. He and Murton aren't really comparable statistic/ability wise - but Murton isn't a terrible option for RF (depending on what the Cubs want to spend).

Abreu would be a GIANT improvement for the Cubs RF situation. BUT after a little more research - he really isn't as dangerous against LHP, and the Cubs need to improve against LHP.

muntjack · October 24, 2007

Does Kemp + Kershaw trump Hill/Marmol/Pie/Murton? I'm not so sure.

What is our ultimate goal here?

Will the NL central be weak again?

If so, is our offense good enough to get 88-90 wins IF we add a #1 starter?

If that's the case, then a #1 starter should be our top priority, as that is what will give us the best chance to make a run once we're in the playoffs.

nilodnayr · October 25, 2007

Huh? Abreu is a guy who will probably score 100 runs, hit 20 HR, drive in 100, walk 100 times, and steal 30 bases. I wouldn't be upset with Murton starting in RF every day, but to expect him to compete with those numbers isn't very realistic.

I do agree with you on the argument that it might not be worth it, as Abreu is going to demand anywhere from $10-15 million - money that can be spent elsewhere. The Cubs are RH heavy in the lineup, though. Need some LH power, and another solid starter would be good.

The only things he did last year that are on your list are score over 100 and knock in over 100 and he was on the Yankees which helped. I definitely think Murton will be able to compete with the numbers Abreu puts up for the remainder of his career. He'll probably never be as good as Abreu was during his prime, but Abreu is past his prime.

Those things I listed are just about Abreu's career averages. You can expect something in the neighborhood. He and Murton aren't really comparable statistic/ability wise - but Murton isn't a terrible option for RF (depending on what the Cubs want to spend).

Abreu would be a GIANT improvement for the Cubs RF situation. BUT after a little more research - he really isn't as dangerous against LHP, and the Cubs need to improve against LHP.

And why on God's green earth would you think Abreu will perform at his career averages in 2008 and beyond?

nilodnayr · October 25, 2007

Does Kemp + Kershaw trump Hill/Marmol/Pie/Murton? I'm not so sure.

What is our ultimate goal here?

Will the NL central be weak again?

If so, is our offense good enough to get 88-90 wins IF we add a #1 starter?

If that's the case, then a #1 starter should be our top priority, as that is what will give us the best chance to make a run once we're in the playoffs.

Yes, Kemp + Kershaw > Hill/Marmol/Pie/Murton

Our ultimate goal is to put the best team on the field.

Yes, the NL Central will be weak, but the Brewers are going to be better.

Who is this "#1" starter you are speaking of. Santana is not a realistic option.

rawaction · October 25, 2007

Cubs biggest need is a middle of the order hitter. Arod would obviously be the ultimate. But there are plenty of options to fill the SS/RF/CF positions. My realistic goal would be to greatly upgrade 1 position, while managing to upgrade another, making the team better all-around. I believe this can be done relatively cheaply w/ SS the likely high priced position. Any combo of Renteria/Church, Furcal/Ethier, Tejada/Baldelli would likely make the team better in 2 spots.

October 25, 2007

More offense, please. The pitching staff is fine and shouldn't be a priority at all.

Have a seat, Neifi · October 25, 2007

There's very little point in paying $10-15 million for an OPS+ of 114 (from someone who will be 34 on Opening Day) when you can pay $440k for an OPS+ of 100 (and who will be 26 on Opening Day). Plus, one of these players is like to regress as they age, while the other is entering his prime.

nilodnayr · October 25, 2007

Cubs biggest need is a middle of the order hitter. Arod would obviously be the ultimate. But there are plenty of options to fill the SS/RF/CF positions. My realistic goal would be to greatly upgrade 1 position, while managing to upgrade another, making the team better all-around. I believe this can be done relatively cheaply w/ SS the likely high priced position. Any combo of Renteria/Church, Furcal/Ethier, Tejada/Baldelli would likely make the team better in 2 spots.

Baldelli would be a good gamble. The DRays outfield is set with Crawford, Upton, and Young for 2008. Baldelli could DH, but at this point, I think they are fed up with the uncertainty. We should be able to get him for a decent pitching prospect. Hes due 2.25M in 2008 and 6M (4M buyout) next.

Abe Frohman · October 25, 2007

And why on God's green earth would you think Abreu will perform at his career averages in 2008 and beyond?

Why wouldn't he? Because he'll be 33-34? He pretty much hit his averages last year, despite a terrible start. Even scored a career high in runs. Look at his numbers in 2007, they were right around the median for his career.

nilodnayr · October 25, 2007

And why on God's green earth would you think Abreu will perform at his career averages in 2008 and beyond?

Why wouldn't he? Because he'll be 33-34? He pretty much hit his averages last year, despite a terrible start. Even scored a career high in runs. Look at his numbers in 2007, they were right around the median for his career.

Well if you are measuring his performance by runs scored, then I don't know what to tell you except for the fact that he doesn't exactly have 100% control over that.

Yes, this will be Abreu's 34 yr old season, typically players decline at this age, and frankly hes already started the decline. He hasn't posted an IsoP over 200 nor an OPS over 908 since 2004 (his career averages). Last year they were 162 and 814. Not exactly near his career average. Abreu is a fine player, don't get me wrong. But to expect him to perform like he did at his peak (99-02) is just foolish. Hes not that player anymore. However, he'd still be a premier FA on the marketplace and would command a salary in 7 digits for multiple years. Bottom line, he won't be 7 digits better than Matt Murton.

seanimal · October 25, 2007

I'm liking Vance's Bonds idea. An OF of Soriano/Pie/Bonds/Murton would be sick. Especially when Pie breaks the learning curve and starts doing to ML pitching what he did to AAA pitching.

Bonds would sit enough to still give Big Murt some playing time, that is, as long as Lou doesn't get all Angel Pagan on us.

Let Cedeno get his shot at SS, and I think with all this stuff combined we could probably compete with the Crew next year, though, barring major changes, I can see them improving at least 5 games next year.

haltz · October 25, 2007

Well if you are measuring his performance by runs scored, then I don't know what to tell you except for the fact that he doesn't exactly have 100% control over that.

That's putting it mildly. He had easily the worst offensive year of his career, since he became a full-time player. He just so happened to play 158 games for a 970-run offense.

VanceJergins · October 25, 2007

I'm liking Vance's Bonds idea. An OF of Soriano/Pie/Bonds/Murton would be sick. Especially when Pie breaks the learning curve and starts doing to ML pitching what he did to AAA pitching.

Bonds would sit enough to still give Big Murt some playing time, that is, as long as Lou doesn't get all Angel Pagan on us.

Let Cedeno get his shot at SS, and I think with all this stuff combined we could probably compete with the Crew next year, though, barring major changes, I can see them improving at least 5 games next year.

Bonds is just about the only player I couldn't root for even if he was a Cub....I just couldn't do it, no matter how much he helped us. I'd sooner cheer for Jim Edmonds.

muntjack · October 25, 2007

Santana is not a realistic option.

As realistic as ARod or Bonds. Hasn't Johan said he wants out?

I'm really surprised how confident everyone is with the rotation.

Hill's results could easily improve considering his peripherals, but:

-Lilly had a career year in many respects. Will he have a 174/55 K/BB ratio again?

-Marquis' post all-star ERA was 5.73

-Z was up and down all year. Unless his BB/9 drastically improves, shouldn't we expect more of the same?

-Marshall should have kept the #5 spot, but as of now that's up in the air.

A back end of the rotation with Marquis and ??? has me concerned.

Rob · October 25, 2007

-Marshall should have kept the #5 spot, but as of now that's up in the air.

A back end of the rotation with Marquis and ??? has me concerned.

The problem with this line of thinking is that we are assuming we'll act stupid and not install Marshall as the #5.

muntjack · October 25, 2007

assuming we'll act stupid

You're a fan of the Chicago Cubs, correct?

nilodnayr · October 25, 2007

Santana is not a realistic option.

As realistic as ARod or Bonds. Hasn't Johan said he wants out?

I'm really surprised how confident everyone is with the rotation.

Hill's results could easily improve considering his peripherals, but:

-Lilly had a career year in many respects. Will he have a 174/55 K/BB ratio again?

-Marquis' post all-star ERA was 5.73

-Z was up and down all year. Unless his BB/9 drastically improves, shouldn't we expect more of the same?

-Marshall should have kept the #5 spot, but as of now that's up in the air.

A back end of the rotation with Marquis and ??? has me concerned.

Our farm system does not have the high quality talent to get Santana. Thats why hes not realistic. ARod and Bonds would only take $. We don't know whats going on with the sale, so budget is still in the air. Hendry thinks it will be a bit more than last year and at least the same, but even to bring everyone back, with escalating contracts, payroll will be higher. Someone like Tejada or Renteria are realistic options.