BP's Nate Silver predicts Cubs sweep

[Rob]

I'm still scratching my head over the Scott Hairston trade. First off, why trade him? He's like Mark DeRosa. Good bat off the bench, can play multiple positions, and would be a tremendous upgrade over Augie Ojeda.

 

And they traded him to San Diego, of all places. They traded him to a team that was battling with Arizona for a playoff spot.

 

It didn't come back to bite them, but it sure could have.

 

Personally, I'm glad Scott Hairston isn't on their roster.

 

Because 26 yr old career minor league relievers are impossible to find? Leo Rosales has good #s, but seriously.

 

Ones projected to have an OPS over 800 are hard to find.

[nilodnayr]

I'm still scratching my head over the Scott Hairston trade. First off, why trade him? He's like Mark DeRosa. Good bat off the bench, can play multiple positions, and would be a tremendous upgrade over Augie Ojeda.

 

And they traded him to San Diego, of all places. They traded him to a team that was battling with Arizona for a playoff spot.

 

It didn't come back to bite them, but it sure could have.

 

Personally, I'm glad Scott Hairston isn't on their roster.

 

Because 26 yr old career minor league relievers are impossible to find? Leo Rosales has good #s, but seriously.

 

Ones projected to have an OPS over 800 are hard to find.

 

To be fair it was 844. Byrnes was owned.

[TruffleShuffle]

well, the d'backs have a chance to sweep

[Omar]

Game 1 was practice, right?

[imb]

thanks a lot silver, you dick

[hardcorecubfan]

OOps, so much for that prediction

[jersey cubs fan]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

Why?

 

They aren't that good.

 

That may be true, but this is a no contest on paper.

 

 

I still don't understand how people could have possibly thought things like this before last night.

[Soul]

So is Will Carrol going to put out an article today apologizing to all Cub fans for being wrong?

 

Just wondering. I'm guessing not.

[Soul]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

Why?

 

They aren't that good.

 

That may be true, but this is a no contest on paper.

 

 

I still don't understand how people could have possibly thought things like this before last night.

 

Me either, and the fact that it came from BP makes me want to re-evaluate their credibility. It was a stupid prediction from the very beginning and should never have been entertained, much less by BP.

[SouthSideRyan]

So is Will Carrol going to put out an article today apologizing to all Cub fans for being wrong?

 

Just wondering. I'm guessing not.

 

Phil Nevin.

[David]

So is Will Carrol going to put out an article today apologizing to all Cub fans for being wrong?

 

Just wondering. I'm guessing not.

 

It was Nate Silver...

 

Oh, and in the actual article he said that the most probable outcome was Cubs in 4, (probably) losing game one. He just said "F it" and went with the sweep prediction for the hell of it.

 

Adjusting those numbers for home-field advantage and plugging them into the log5 formula, we come up with the following basic estimates of win probability:

 

Game 1 Cubs (Zambrano) 47% at Diamondbacks (Webb) 53%

Game 2 Cubs (Lilly) 59% at Diamondbacks (Davis) 41%

Game 3 Diamondbacks (Hernandez) 33% at Cubs (Hill) 67%

Game 4 Diamondbacks (Owings) 33% at Cubs (Zambrano) 67%

Game 5 Cubs (Lilly) 47% at Diamondbacks (Webb) 53%

 

These numbers, in turn, produce the following outcomes for the series:

 

Diamondbacks Win in 3 7.0% Cubs Win in 3 18.8%

Diamondbacks Win in 4 10.2% Cubs Win in 4 28.9%

Diamondbacks Win in 5 18.5% Cubs Win in 5 16.5%

Diamondbacks Total 35.7% Cubs Total 64.3%

 

That strikes me as about right. The Cubs have the much better offense, and frankly if Jason Marquis is excised, their edge in the rotation might be nearly as large. Even the D'backs’ home-field advantage is questionable, since the Cubs have a lot of roots in the Phoenix area, and might get as much of a third of a crowd to support them, as well as the royal treatment at the local strip joints. The other thing to notice is that most of the times the Cubs win this series, they’re going to do so in three or four games, since Game Five involves going up against Brandon Webb in ‘Zona, the only permutation where the Cubs aren’t favored. Although the best wager would be Cubs in four, I am going to go out on a little bit of a limb and predict a Cubs sweep.

[Soul]

So is Will Carrol going to put out an article today apologizing to all Cub fans for being wrong?

 

Just wondering. I'm guessing not.

 

It was Nate Silver...

 

Oh, and in the actual article he said that the most probable outcome was Cubs in 4, losing game one. He just said "F it" and went with the sweep prediction for the hell of it.

 

Adjusting those numbers for home-field advantage and plugging them into the log5 formula, we come up with the following basic estimates of win probability:

 

Game 1 Cubs (Zambrano) 47% at Diamondbacks (Webb) 53%

Game 2 Cubs (Lilly) 59% at Diamondbacks (Davis) 41%

Game 3 Diamondbacks (Hernandez) 33% at Cubs (Hill) 67%

Game 4 Diamondbacks (Owings) 33% at Cubs (Zambrano) 67%

Game 5 Cubs (Lilly) 47% at Diamondbacks (Webb) 53%

 

These numbers, in turn, produce the following outcomes for the series:

 

Diamondbacks Win in 3 7.0% Cubs Win in 3 18.8%

Diamondbacks Win in 4 10.2% Cubs Win in 4 28.9%

Diamondbacks Win in 5 18.5% Cubs Win in 5 16.5%

Diamondbacks Total 35.7% Cubs Total 64.3%

 

That strikes me as about right. The Cubs have the much better offense, and frankly if Jason Marquis is excised, their edge in the rotation might be nearly as large. Even the D'backs’ home-field advantage is questionable, since the Cubs have a lot of roots in the Phoenix area, and might get as much of a third of a crowd to support them, as well as the royal treatment at the local strip joints. The other thing to notice is that most of the times the Cubs win this series, they’re going to do so in three or four games, since Game Five involves going up against Brandon Webb in ‘Zona, the only permutation where the Cubs aren’t favored. Although the best wager would be Cubs in four, I am going to go out on a little bit of a limb and predict a Cubs sweep.

 

OK, Nate Silver then. As an organization though, if you're going to have one writer put out "high-horse" crap that basically slams a fan base, then shouldn't you be willing on the other side to admit mistakes when they are made, especially if it was based not on the numbers and stats you are known for, but a "F-it" decision (i.e. not in character) -?

 

I just think when you're going to go down that road you need to be willing to be humble when it comes down the other way. Far be it for me to defend White Sox fans, and I thought Will's article was funny, but it's kind of B.S. when you ignore your failings (again, as an organization) if you're going to do that.

[SouthSideRyan]

Short Rest Z a 67% chance against Owings seems high.

[SouthSideRyan]

I just think when you're going to go down that road you need to be willing to be humble when it comes down the other way. Far be it for me to defend White Sox fans, and I thought Will's article was funny, but it's kind of B.S. when you ignore your failings (again, as an organization) if you're going to do that.

 

Will Carroll humble??

 

The best part about Carroll's gloating is that he pretty much has nothing to do with PECOTA. And the "I predicted Phil Nevin too bitches!" at the end was ludicrous. Acting like a petulant child.

[Roast]

Short Rest Z a 67% chance against Owings seems high.

 

Hell, he only threw 85 pitches his last time out, he should be fine :roll:

[David]

 

OK, Nate Silver then. As an organization though, if you're going to have one writer put out "high-horse" crap that basically slams a fan base, then shouldn't you be willing on the other side to admit mistakes when they are made, especially if it was based not on the numbers and stats you are known for, but a "F-it" decision (i.e. not in character) -?

 

I just think when you're going to go down that road you need to be willing to be humble when it comes down the other way. Far be it for me to defend White Sox fans, and I thought Will's article was funny, but it's kind of B.S. when you ignore your failings (again, as an organization) if you're going to do that.

 

We'll have to agree to disagree. In the article he says what the numbers say the most likely outcome is. He concedes that his prediction is only the second most likely outcome (so, not THAT far out on a limb). The final prediction means little, IMO. The substance of the article is what matters.

[jaxxradio]

California Raisin.. you think I am a tad bit biased on the tams?? lol

 

In all seriousness, last night was what I thought it would be. Arizona gets a win with Webb and their bullpen outdueling Z and the Cubbies pen. IMHO, the Cubs will win the next three games and move on. That being siad, tonight's game is HUGE. If Arizona wins tonight, they win the thing in five.

 

Hopefully, you Cub fans will root for your suffering brethren in Cleveland tonight (I know 59 years isn't as much as 99 years, but NO Cleveland sports team has won a title since 1964.. talk about jinxed).

[jersey cubs fan]

I just think when you're going to go down that road you need to be willing to be humble when it comes down the other way. Far be it for me to defend White Sox fans, and I thought Will's article was funny, but it's kind of B.S. when you ignore your failings (again, as an organization) if you're going to do that.

 

Will Carroll humble??

 

The best part about Carroll's gloating is that he pretty much has nothing to do with PECOTA. And the "I predicted Phil Nevin too bitches!" at the end was ludicrous. Acting like a petulant child.

 

I have no idea what people are talking about now.

[David]

I just think when you're going to go down that road you need to be willing to be humble when it comes down the other way. Far be it for me to defend White Sox fans, and I thought Will's article was funny, but it's kind of B.S. when you ignore your failings (again, as an organization) if you're going to do that.

 

Will Carroll humble??

 

The best part about Carroll's gloating is that he pretty much has nothing to do with PECOTA. And the "I predicted Phil Nevin too bitches!" at the end was ludicrous. Acting like a petulant child.

 

I have no idea what people are talking about now.

 

I think they're talking about his F-U article to the White Sox after they went the 72-90 (or whatever it was) that Pecota projected. I guess some Sox players had made some smart ass remarks in early spring when the projections came out.

 

But I have no clue what the Phil Nevin stuff is.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

I think they're talking about his F-U article to the White Sox after they went the 72-90 (or whatever it was) that Pecota projected. I guess some Sox players had made some smart ass remarks in early spring when the projections came out.

 

But I have no clue what the Phil Nevin stuff is.

 

Following him taking shots at the Sox he closed with Phil Nevin says hi! I'm not sure if it was an actual article or a blog entry or what. I had no clue what he was talking about. Someone at BTF pointed out that in his injury reports a few years back during spring training he gave Nevin a red light(high risk of injury). Nevin went on to get injured like a week later.

 

Will Carroll is gloating about predicting that somebody has a high risk of getting injured 4 years ago.

[Brian]

Yeah I'm missing the Nevin stuff too, I thought maybe he had some sort of insane year that I missed but he retired like I thought, and If he's gloating that he predicted an old guy retiring than congrats I guess.

 

[edit - just got beat by the real explanation.]

[nilodnayr]

 

I think they're talking about his F-U article to the White Sox after they went the 72-90 (or whatever it was) that Pecota projected. I guess some Sox players had made some smart ass remarks in early spring when the projections came out.

 

But I have no clue what the Phil Nevin stuff is.

 

Following him taking shots at the Sox he closed with Phil Nevin says hi! I'm not sure if it was an actual article or a blog entry or what. I had no clue what he was talking about. Someone at BTF pointed out that in his injury reports a few years back during spring training he gave Nevin a red light(high risk of injury). Nevin went on to get injured like a week later.

 

Will Carroll is gloating about predicting that somebody has a high risk of getting injured 4 years ago.

 

Well he could have said "Mark Prior says hi", that would have been a lot worse.

[treebird]

 

I think they're talking about his F-U article to the White Sox after they went the 72-90 (or whatever it was) that Pecota projected. I guess some Sox players had made some smart ass remarks in early spring when the projections came out.

 

But I have no clue what the Phil Nevin stuff is.

 

Following him taking shots at the Sox he closed with Phil Nevin says hi! I'm not sure if it was an actual article or a blog entry or what. I had no clue what he was talking about. Someone at BTF pointed out that in his injury reports a few years back during spring training he gave Nevin a red light(high risk of injury). Nevin went on to get injured like a week later.

 

Will Carroll is gloating about predicting that somebody has a high risk of getting injured 4 years ago.

 

in fairness, it wasn't just a red light. he picked nevin out as one guy most likely to suffer a major injury and miss most or all of the season, and nevin was hurt a few days later.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Will Carroll is gloating about predicting that somebody has a high risk of getting injured 4 years ago.

 

in fairness, it wasn't just a red light. he picked nevin out as one guy most likely to suffer a major injury and miss most or all of the season, and nevin was hurt a few days later.

 

He separated his shoulder diving for a ball in the OF, unless Carroll had some sort of info leading him to think Nevin had a shoulder that couldn't handle diving on it, I'm not buying it. Nevermind the fact that he's crowing about something he predicted 4 years ago as evidence of don't you dare question the almighty Will

[treebird]

 

Will Carroll is gloating about predicting that somebody has a high risk of getting injured 4 years ago.

 

in fairness, it wasn't just a red light. he picked nevin out as one guy most likely to suffer a major injury and miss most or all of the season, and nevin was hurt a few days later.

 

He separated his shoulder diving for a ball in the OF, unless Carroll had some sort of info leading him to think Nevin had a shoulder that couldn't handle diving on it, I'm not buying it. Nevermind the fact that he's crowing about something he predicted 4 years ago as evidence of don't you dare question the almighty Will

 

I agree that Carroll is too pompous for his own (or anyone's) good, and that it's silly to still be bragging about this prediction.

 

However, it was a pretty impressive call. Here's his quote --

 

I'll either look like a genius or moron with this, but I expect Nevin to have some sort of season-ending injury in the early stages of the season

 

And he did cite his shoulder as the body part to be feared.

 

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