BP's Nate Silver predicts Cubs sweep

[David]

I trust my feelings

He asked you to help him combat his pessimism - I don't think that channeling the ghost of managers past as your source of optimism is the way to do that. Have a heart and lie to the guy, or make something up.

 

He could just read the very well supported BP article referenced in this very thread.

[C.C.]

I trust my feelings

He asked you to help him combat his pessimism - I don't think that channeling the ghost of managers past as your source of optimism is the way to do that. Have a heart and lie to the guy, or make something up.

 

LOL.

 

Well here's to cubbiechris' feelings, at any rate.

 

 

Cheers!!!

[C.C.]

I trust my feelings

He asked you to help him combat his pessimism - I don't think that channeling the ghost of managers past as your source of optimism is the way to do that. Have a heart and lie to the guy, or make something up.

 

He could just read the very well supported BP article referenced in this very thread.

 

My feelings and my hunch are much more trust worthy then some stupid stats.

[jersey cubs fan]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

[CuseCubFan69]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

They're the sexy choice.

[CubmanPi]

I trust my feelings

He asked you to help him combat his pessimism - I don't think that channeling the ghost of managers past as your source of optimism is the way to do that. Have a heart and lie to the guy, or make something up.

 

He could just read the very well supported BP article referenced in this very thread.

 

My feelings and my hunch are much more trust worthy then some stupid stats.

 

That only works if you're a HOF 2nd baseman explaining why not to put much stock in that book Billy Beane wrote.

[David]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

Why?

[jersey cubs fan]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

They're the sexy choice.

 

And I don't understand why. The Cubs got their butts handed to them by every NL contender not named Milwaukee. I think they can win the series, but I don't see how they can be considered the favorite. Sure, the rest of the country seems to want to see the Cubs win, because of the story, but I don't see how that makes them the favorite.

[David]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

They're the sexy choice.

 

Eh. Maybe for ESPN, but BP wouldn't be picking them if they didn't really think they should win.

[CuseCubFan69]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

They're the sexy choice.

 

And I don't understand why. The Cubs got their butts handed to them by every NL contender not named Milwaukee. I think they can win the series, but I don't see how they can be considered the favorite. Sure, the rest of the country seems to want to see the Cubs win, because of the story, but I don't see how that makes them the favorite.

 

They have the bigger names and more veteran players.

[C.C.]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

Lou

[CuseCubFan69]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

They're the sexy choice.

 

Eh. Maybe for ESPN, but BP wouldn't be picking them if they didn't really think they should win.

 

True. Watch the DBacks play the "underdog" card to perfection.

[David]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

They're the sexy choice.

 

And I don't understand why. The Cubs got their butts handed to them by every NL contender not named Milwaukee. I think they can win the series, but I don't see how they can be considered the favorite. Sure, the rest of the country seems to want to see the Cubs win, because of the story, but I don't see how that makes them the favorite.

 

Have you seen the Diamondbacks' roster? I'm pretty sure they have Augie Ojeda getting regular PT.

 

The run differential thing has been played to death, so I won't even go there, but yea....

[jersey cubs fan]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

Why?

 

They aren't that good.

[David]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

Why?

 

They aren't that good.

 

The Diamondbacks are worse.

[Soul]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

Why?

 

They aren't that good.

 

The Diamondbacks are worse.

 

I want to believe that, but the records tell a different story. And I don't think anyone could argue the DBacks had it rougher in the West.

 

I'm with goons. I think we can win the series, but it will be a fairly tough task and we need to play good Cub baseball throughout.

[kente777]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

Why?

 

They aren't that good.

 

The Diamondbacks are worse.

 

I want to believe that, but the records tell a different story. And I don't think anyone could argue the DBacks had it rougher in the West.

 

I'm with goons. I think we can win the series, but it will be a fairly tough task and we need to play good Cub baseball throughout.

 

You could always say there are many keys to the series, but I truly believe Z is the Cubs key to a division series win. He pitches well, the Cubs win the series.

[nilodnayr]

The Cubs should be favorites to go to the series because they have the best #2 and #3 starters and a #1 starter that can be utterly dominant and negate the other teams #1 starter. Additionally, they have a pretty good pen and a pretty good lineup. They don't have the best Ace, the best pen, nor the best lineup, but they do have depth and balance. All the other NL teams have glaring flaws, mostly #2, #3, and #4 SPs.

[David]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

Why?

 

They aren't that good.

 

The Diamondbacks are worse.

 

I want to believe that, but the records tell a different story. And I don't think anyone could argue the DBacks had it rougher in the West.

 

I'm with goons. I think we can win the series, but it will be a fairly tough task and we need to play good Cub baseball throughout.

 

Wins and losses aren't the best predictive statistic. Look at all the rest of their numbers. They paint an entirely different picture.

 

The 98 Cubs also won 90 games (albeit in 163 games). Mediocre teams sometimes luck into good/great records.

 

I think this is a case of the Cubs having played a bit better than their record and the D'Backs playing significantly worse than theirs. Pythagoras agrees.

 

All this means nothing though. They could sweep us, we could sweep them..or it could be a hard fought series. All the numbers can give us is what the most likely outcomes are.

[jaxxradio]

I think the Cubs win this series in four. I give all the respect in the world to Arizona. Lets face it, there is a reason why this team finished with the best record in the National League.

 

That being said, their solid defense takes a hit with Orlando Hudson out, the rotation is questionable after Webb and the offense doesn't scare anyone.

 

As long as the Cubs aren't down after six innings, they should be in good shape. If the Cubs offense doesn't produce, it will become a battle of the bullpens and, with all due respect to Marmol and Howry, the Diamond Backs have a better 'pen, especially in the closers role.

 

One thing that worries me about the post-season (not so much in this series, but IF the Cubs move on) is the lack of a shutdown lefty specialist. I am going to cringe everytime Lou goes to Eyre or Ohman to face a Ryan Howard, Todd Helton or (dare we dream) Big Papi or Travis Hafner.

 

BTW.. I am on record... it will be a Cubs-Indians World Series.

[Guest]

BTW.. I am on record... it will be a Cubs-Indians World Series.

 

I think you're a smidge biased w/ those two teams. :)

[radarluv1]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

Why?

 

They aren't that good.

 

The Diamondbacks are worse.

 

I want to believe that, but the records tell a different story. And I don't think anyone could argue the DBacks had it rougher in the West.

 

I'm with goons. I think we can win the series, but it will be a fairly tough task and we need to play good Cub baseball throughout.

 

you had to feel a little funny when you typed that

[BigbadB]

I think the Cubs win this series in four. I give all the respect in the world to Arizona. Lets face it, there is a reason why this team finished with the best record in the National League.

 

That being said, their solid defense takes a hit with Orlando Hudson out, the rotation is questionable after Webb and the offense doesn't scare anyone.

 

As long as the Cubs aren't down after six innings, they should be in good shape. If the Cubs offense doesn't produce, it will become a battle of the bullpens and, with all due respect to Marmol and Howry, the Diamond Backs have a better 'pen, especially in the closers role.

 

One thing that worries me about the post-season (not so much in this series, but IF the Cubs move on) is the lack of a shutdown lefty specialist. I am going to cringe everytime Lou goes to Eyre or Ohman to face a Ryan Howard, Todd Helton or (dare we dream) Big Papi or Travis Hafner.

 

BTW.. I am on record... it will be a Cubs-Indians World Series.

 

I'm still scratching my head over the Scott Hairston trade. First off, why trade him? He's like Mark DeRosa. Good bat off the bench, can play multiple positions, and would be a tremendous upgrade over Augie Ojeda.

 

And they traded him to San Diego, of all places. They traded him to a team that was battling with Arizona for a playoff spot.

 

It didn't come back to bite them, but it sure could have.

 

Personally, I'm glad Scott Hairston isn't on their roster.

[nilodnayr]

I'm still scratching my head over the Scott Hairston trade. First off, why trade him? He's like Mark DeRosa. Good bat off the bench, can play multiple positions, and would be a tremendous upgrade over Augie Ojeda.

 

And they traded him to San Diego, of all places. They traded him to a team that was battling with Arizona for a playoff spot.

 

It didn't come back to bite them, but it sure could have.

 

Personally, I'm glad Scott Hairston isn't on their roster.

 

Because 26 yr old career minor league relievers are impossible to find? Leo Rosales has good #s, but seriously.

[XZero771679666304]

I really don't understand how so many people are putting the Cubs as favorites.

 

Why?

 

They aren't that good.

 

That may be true, but this is a no contest on paper.

 

 

 

Arizona is dead last in the NL in AVG and OBP, and 14th in Runs scored and 13th in OPS.

 

The Cubs' team AVG is almost 20 points higher, as is their OPS. The Cubs team ERA is lower, runs allowed lower and strikeouts higher. Their OPS allowed is much lower. The bullpen ERA and OPS allowed are both well lower, and strikeouts much higher.

 

That may not be worth much, but it really isn't hard to see why the Cubs are favored when you compare rosters and stats. Statistically speaking the Cubs have better pitching and hitting and virtually equal fielding.

 

 

 

Having said that, I would not be the least bit surprised to see the Cubs lose. Nor would I be surprised to see the Cubs sweep.