BP's Nate Silver predicts Cubs sweep

[JGalt73]

Link.

 

"Although the best wager would be Cubs in four, I am going to go out on a little bit of a limb and predict a Cubs sweep."

[inari]

Most of the ESPN guys are predicting a Cubs series win as well.

[Soul]

And this makes me even more nervous...

[David]

Most of the ESPN guys are predicting a Cubs series win as well.

 

Of course, you could argue that BP and ESPN are on opposite ends of the credibility spectrum.

[Post Count Padder]

Most of the ESPN guys are predicting a Cubs series win as well.

 

Of course, you could argue that BP and ESPN are on opposite ends of the credibility spectrum.

I wouldn't usually mention them in the same sentence.

[bukie]

So, basically he says the D-backs are a statistical anomaly. This we know.

[kente777]

I like the article.....

 

Cubs in 4!

[Guest]

Most of the ESPN guys are predicting a Cubs series win as well.

 

Of course, you could argue that BP and ESPN are on opposite ends of the credibility spectrum.

 

Exactly, I'd much rather have BP on my side. :)

[Wilson A2000]

Pitching and defense is what works in the playoffs. Ask the Yankees of years past. AZ has a decent amount of this. I don't think the series will be as easy as some think. The Cubs are going to have to beat Webb twice, a tough task.

[C.C.]

I thought I was the only one predicting a sweep. I agree Cubs sweep and the only challenge they'll have is tomorrow night.

[Soul]

So, basically he says the D-backs are a statistical anomaly. This we know.

 

Yep. And people have been pointing out this statistical anomaly for months now, saying it means the DBacks will fade (myself included). Yet they keep winning.

 

It just means very little at this point. Sometimes teams can buck the probabilities, it happens.

[moorecg]

I like the article.....

 

Cubs in 4!

 

I'd be fine with either result...I'm going to both games!

[C.C.]

Pitching and defense is what works in the playoffs. Ask the Yankees of years past. AZ has a decent amount of this. I don't think the series will be as easy as some think. The Cubs are going to have to beat Webb twice, a tough task.

 

 

Once. It won't go long enough to see him twice.

[Wilson A2000]

The Cubs did beat Webb, but he pitched well, only giving up two runs in seven innings. With that said, Webb has been far from spectacular lately. I hope that Z can settle down on the mound. In 03, he was pitching near 100 MPH, but didn't have the sink. He is much more effective when he can throw a 90 MPH sinker and drop in that splitter. When Z was on a roll, the splitter was quite effective. But you have to get ahead in the count to use it.

[David]

Pitching and defense is what works in the playoffs. Ask the Yankees of years past. AZ has a decent amount of this. I don't think the series will be as easy as some think. The Cubs are going to have to beat Webb twice, a tough task.

 

People like to say this a lot. The truth is, though, sometimes good pitching wins, and sometimes good offense wins. It's a short series. There's no telling how the games will play out. The game of baseball doesn't suddenly change because it's the playoffs or because the calendar says October. Sure, a team with 2 or 3 good pitchers, and then a dropoff (in their rotation), is better off in the playoff format, but that's pretty much the situation the Cubs find themselves in, anyway.

 

Granted, the weather has an effect, but we're playing in Arizona, and hell, the forecast for Saturday is 81 degrees and sunny. :shock:

 

That aside, the Cubs pitching is better anyway.

[David]

So, basically he says the D-backs are a statistical anomaly. This we know.

 

Yep. And people have been pointing out this statistical anomaly for months now, saying it means the DBacks will fade (myself included). Yet they keep winning.

 

It just means very little at this point. Sometimes teams can buck the probabilities, it happens.

 

Doesn't change the fact that looking ahead, they should still not be as good as they actually performed.

 

If you flip a coin heads 10 times in a row, the odds of flipping heads don't become any better or worse for the 11th. A long streak of bucking the probabilities means little in terms of predicting whether that streak will continue.

Edited October 2, 2007 by David

[Soul]

Pitching and defense is what works in the playoffs. Ask the Yankees of years past. AZ has a decent amount of this. I don't think the series will be as easy as some think. The Cubs are going to have to beat Webb twice, a tough task.

 

People like to say this a lot. The truth is, though, sometimes good pitching wins, and sometimes good offense wins. It's a short series. There's no telling how the games will play out. The game of baseball doesn't suddenly change because it's the playoffs or because the calendar says October. Sure, a team with 2 or 3 good pitchers, and then a dropoff (in their rotation), is better off in the playoff format, but that's pretty much the situation the Cubs find themselves in, anyway.

 

Granted, the weather has an effect, but we're playing in Arizona, and hell, the forecast for Saturday is 81 degrees and sunny. :shock:

 

That aside, the Cubs pitching is better anyway.

 

I know it wasn't technically a playoff game, but SD's superior pitching didn't help them last night, which would seem to support your point.

 

Never know, sometimes a good pitcher will put in a bad performance. Last night it happened to SD twice. That said, I'm pretty worried about Webb. At least he's not a lefty.

[BigSlick]

Pitching and defense is what works in the playoffs. Ask the Yankees of years past. AZ has a decent amount of this. I don't think the series will be as easy as some think. The Cubs are going to have to beat Webb twice, a tough task.

 

Or we don't? We don't have to force a game 5.

 

This will be an interesting series, I fear for a Dempster meltdown in a crucial game.

[Soul]

So, basically he says the D-backs are a statistical anomaly. This we know.

 

Yep. And people have been pointing out this statistical anomaly for months now, saying it means the DBacks will fade (myself included). Yet they keep winning.

 

It just means very little at this point. Sometimes teams can buck the probabilities, it happens.

 

Doesn't change the fact that looking ahead, they should still not be as good as they actually performed.

 

If you flip a coin heads 10 times in a row, the odds of flipping heads don't become any or better for the 11th. A long streak of bucking the probabilities means little in terms of predicting whether that streak will continue.

 

...unless there's something not being accounted for in the model.

[AlwaysaCub]

Pitching and defense is what works in the playoffs. Ask the Yankees of years past. AZ has a decent amount of this. I don't think the series will be as easy as some think. The Cubs are going to have to beat Webb twice, a tough task.

 

People like to say this a lot. The truth is, though, sometimes good pitching wins, and sometimes good offense wins. It's a short series. There's no telling how the games will play out. The game of baseball doesn't suddenly change because it's the playoffs or because the calendar says October. Sure, a team with 2 or 3 good pitchers, and then a dropoff (in their rotation), is better off in the playoff format, but that's pretty much the situation the Cubs find themselves in, anyway.

 

Granted, the weather has an effect, but we're playing in Arizona, and hell, the forecast for Saturday is 81 degrees and sunny. :shock:

 

That aside, the Cubs pitching is better anyway.

 

And so is our defense. They don't have O-dog anymore. I think I'd take their defender over ours in center and behind the plate. Everywhere else is even or to our advantage.

[Twiggy]

GO CUBS GO!

[Roast]

I am really really hoping the Dbacks get swept. Not only because we are playing them, but moreso because if they somehow pull this out of their you-know-whats and win it all....The media will have a field day with the "stats dont mean anything. LOOK at what the D-backs did. They used heart, grit, moxy, and chemistry to win it all."

[David]

I am really really hoping the Dbacks get swept. Not only because we are playing them, but moreso because if they somehow pull this out of their you-know-whats and win it all....The media will have a field day with the "stats dont mean anything. LOOK at what the D-backs did. They used heart, grit, moxy, and chemistry to win it all."

 

Meh. They could've done the same with last year's Cardinals. Plus, the mainstream media, for the most part, acts like sabermetrics don't even exist. So that sentiment really wouldn't prevail among them, anyway.

[Rob]

I am really really hoping the Dbacks get swept. Not only because we are playing them, but moreso because if they somehow pull this out of their you-know-whats and win it all....The media will have a field day with the "stats dont mean anything. LOOK at what the D-backs did. They used heart, grit, moxy, and chemistry to win it all."

 

Let's be completely honest here; they will anyway.

 

No matter which team wins, it will be attributed to pitching, defense, and manufacturing runs. In the case of those things that the winning team didn't do especially well, the phrase will include the words "just enough".

[Soul]

I am really really hoping the Dbacks get swept. Not only because we are playing them, but moreso because if they somehow pull this out of their you-know-whats and win it all....The media will have a field day with the "stats dont mean anything. LOOK at what the D-backs did. They used heart, grit, moxy, and chemistry to win it all."

 

Meh. They could've done the same with last year's Cardinals. Plus, the mainstream media, for the most part, acts like sabermetrics don't even exist. So that sentiment really wouldn't prevail among them, anyway.

 

Yeah, I fully expect many analysts to point to the grit and grind of the vets as a large factor no matter who wins the World Series. It's much easier to do that than look at actual stats.