The Cubs Pitching

[kente777]

Wow....the Cubs are first in all of MLB with a .245 BAA. They also have the 5th lowest ERA in baseball.

 

Hmmm.....we could actually have a chance in the playoffs if our pitching keeps it up.

[UMFan83]

Wow....the Cubs are first in all of MLB with a .245 BAA. They also have the 5th lowest ERA in baseball.

 

Hmmm.....we could actually have a chance in the playoffs if our pitching keeps it up.

 

How are the splits broken up? I don't know, but completely guessing I would assume that they were very good in April and May, ok in June, bad in July and August, and improving in September.

[Rob]

I'm just worried that Lou is going to insist on making Marquis the 3rd starter in the playoffs, just so that we don't have Lilly and Hill going back to back.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Wow....the Cubs are first in all of MLB with a .245 BAA. They also have the 5th lowest ERA in baseball.

 

Hmmm.....we could actually have a chance in the playoffs if our pitching keeps it up.

 

How are the splits broken up? I don't know, but completely guessing I would assume that they were very good in April and May, ok in June, bad in July and August, and improving in September.

 

CUBS                 IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
04/02 - 04/30     220.0  190   91   88   81  176   26  3477  3.31  7.20  1.06  1.23  3.60
05/01 - 05/30     244.0  231  129  123   97  203   30  3960  3.58  7.49  1.11  1.34  4.54
06/01 - 06/30     251.3  227  121  107   86  225   32  4032  3.08  8.06  1.15  1.25  3.83
07/01 - 07/31     229.3  201   88   83   97  174   21  3764  3.81  6.83  0.82  1.30  3.26
08/01 - 08/31     246.7  246  137  128  121  211   33  4206  4.41  7.70  1.20  1.49  4.67
09/01 - 09/16     151.3  144   74   71   55  120   15  2400  3.27  7.14  0.89  1.31  4.22

totals           1342.7 1239  640  600  537 1109  157 21839  3.60  7.43  1.05  1.32  4.02

[CubColtPacer]

Wow....the Cubs are first in all of MLB with a .245 BAA. They also have the 5th lowest ERA in baseball.

 

Hmmm.....we could actually have a chance in the playoffs if our pitching keeps it up.

 

How are the splits broken up? I don't know, but completely guessing I would assume that they were very good in April and May, ok in June, bad in July and August, and improving in September.

 

In ERA for all of MLB (I'm using everybody because the initial poster did) the Cubs are:

 

7th in April

16th in May

4th in June

1st in July

18th in August

9th in September

 

If you were talking about BAA for MLB:

4th in April

8th in May

1st in June

1st in July

8th in August

6th in September

 

So April, August, and September were as you remembered it with May, June, and July being different.

[CubColtPacer]

I'm just worried that Lou is going to insist on making Marquis the 3rd starter in the playoffs, just so that we don't have Lilly and Hill going back to back.

 

If the Cubs stick with 4 starters, does it matter that much on who is the 3rd starter? Besides, it's not like Marquis and Hill have been a ton different this year. Hill has been better, but not by so much to say that Marquis starting the game before Hill would be terrible, and it could be argued that Marquis is pitching more consistently well than Hill is down the stretch.

[TheDude]

Even when the Cubs had bad overall pitching numbers in recent years, the team BAA has been exceptional. The Cubs management loves swing and miss pitchers. High K teams have low BAA, it's just one of those natural compliments.

 

But low BAA is not indicative of low base runners allowed. Because high K pitchers tend toward high walks also. And those walks have a tendency to score.

 

I would say the Cubs have a top 5 staff in MLB, especially when they have a lead. But it does have a few holes.

[Mephistopheles]

walks are more desirable than hits. A single scores just as much as a walk. Don't make it seem otherwise and I am teaching you this.

[Derwood]

walks are more desirable than hits. A single scores just as much as a walk. Don't make it seem otherwise and I am teaching you this.

 

regardless, the Cubs are tied for 4th in the majors in team WHIP, so the walks aren't skewing anything

[XZero771679666304]

walks are more desirable than hits. A single scores just as much as a walk. Don't make it seem otherwise and I am teaching you this.

 

That's common sense. But pitchers have a much greater degree of control over how many walks they give up than how many hits. Ideally, you'd like the staff to give away fewer baserunners.

[XZero771679666304]

walks are more desirable than hits. A single scores just as much as a walk. Don't make it seem otherwise and I am teaching you this.

 

regardless, the Cubs are tied for 4th in the majors in team WHIP, so the walks aren't skewing anything

 

You can certainly look at it that way, but you can also see that the staff could be even better.

[Mephistopheles]

Not necessarily because if you lower strikeouts to lower walks then you raise hits. So you're back at square one. Since walks are more desirable than hits, you would likely take the higher walk rate. Although there's a trade-off sensitivity specifically you need dBB/dK if walk rate is a function of strikeout rate among other things for a given pitcher.

[bukie]

Cubs are 6th in MLB in OBA.

 

Here are the splits by month:

April - 6th

May - 17th

June - 2nd

July - 5th

August - 23rd

September - 5th

 

Simply too many walks by the pitchers. Especially in May and August. Too many walks for the pitchers, not enough walks for the hitters. Same tune, different year.

[David]

Cubs are 6th in MLB in OBA.

 

Here are the splits by month:

April - 6th

May - 17th

June - 2nd

July - 5th

August - 23rd

September - 5th

 

Simply too many walks by the pitchers. Especially in May and August. Too many walks for the pitchers, not enough walks for the hitters. Same tune, different year.

 

6th in MLB isn't really that bad, is it (not that I disagree with the rest of your point)?

[Mephistopheles]

6th in MLB is a loaded statistic. Thats good for what? 5th in the NL? Thats above average but not great.

[David]

6th in MLB is a loaded statistic. Thats good for what? 5th in the NL? Thats above average but not great.

 

Looks like 3rd, but a valid point.

[CubColtPacer]

6th in MLB is a loaded statistic. Thats good for what? 5th in the NL? Thats above average but not great.

 

3rd in the NL. There are only 4 NL teams in the top 10 of that statistic.

[XZero771679666304]

Not necessarily because if you lower strikeouts to lower walks then you raise hits. So you're back at square one. Since walks are more desirable than hits, you would likely take the higher walk rate. Although there's a trade-off sensitivity specifically you need dBB/dK if walk rate is a function of strikeout rate among other things for a given pitcher.

 

Well, that's assuming that a higher walk rate is inherent to a strikeout pitcher. While that's often the case, I don't think it is necessarily so. Mark Prior (when he was healthy) was a prime example. You don't have to sacrifice k's to lower your BB rate.

 

Ted Lilly is another example. His k/bb is well above his career average this year, and his baa is well below. This may be a result of moving to the NL, but the differences are pretty drastic.

Edited September 17, 2007 by XZero77

[David]

Not necessarily because if you lower strikeouts to lower walks then you raise hits. So you're back at square one. Since walks are more desirable than hits, you would likely take the higher walk rate. Although there's a trade-off sensitivity specifically you need dBB/dK if walk rate is a function of strikeout rate among other things for a given pitcher.

 

Well, that's assuming that a higher walk rate is inherent to a strikeout pitcher. While that's often the case, I don't think it is necessarily so. Mark Prior (when he was healthy) was a prime example. You don't have to sacrifice k's to lower your BB rate.

 

Mark Prior was a rare breed, though. I think it's pretty fair to say that high walk rates are inherent in strikeout pitchers, by and large.

[XZero771679666304]

Not necessarily because if you lower strikeouts to lower walks then you raise hits. So you're back at square one. Since walks are more desirable than hits, you would likely take the higher walk rate. Although there's a trade-off sensitivity specifically you need dBB/dK if walk rate is a function of strikeout rate among other things for a given pitcher.

 

Well, that's assuming that a higher walk rate is inherent to a strikeout pitcher. While that's often the case, I don't think it is necessarily so. Mark Prior (when he was healthy) was a prime example. You don't have to sacrifice k's to lower your BB rate.

 

Mark Prior was a rare breed, though. I think it's pretty fair to say that high walk rates are inherent in strikeout pitchers, by and large.

 

Rare, but not unique. If you look at the ML strikeout leaders, there are plenty on pace for well under 100 walks.

[C.C.]

I asked Buster Olney a question on today's chat:

 

CC (Chicago): What is Larry Rothschild reputation in the baseball world. It seems he's doing a outstanding job with the Cubs this year.

 

SportsNation Buster Olney: (1:35 PM ET ) CC: Great reputation, smart guy.

[Coach C]

Cubs are 6th in MLB in OBA.

 

Here are the splits by month:

April - 6th

May - 17th

June - 2nd

July - 5th

August - 23rd

September - 5th

 

Simply too many walks by the pitchers. Especially in May and August. Too many walks for the pitchers, not enough walks for the hitters. Same tune, different year.

 

No, last year, the Cubs were really walking everybody like crazy. I even recall several times where the Cubs walked home the runner in the 9th or the extras.

 

Not to mention, that I should say that sometimes those walks statistic is sometimes skewed, becuase of the pitiful umpiring. We all know that there were some pitches that were really close in the middle of the plate, where the homeplate umpire just didn't say anything, other than "Ball 4, take your base."

[Vanilla Ice]

I'm just worried that Lou is going to insist on making Marquis the 3rd starter in the playoffs, just so that we don't have Lilly and Hill going back to back.

 

If he is worried about that, why wouldnt he let Lilly start game 1, Zambrano game 2, and hill game 3

[Fred Hornkohl]

Here's a comparison of this year's pitching staff vs. last year's.

 

        - - 2006 - -    - - 2007 - -
        CUBS  Oppnt     CUBS  Oppnt

ERA     4.781  3.901    4.019  4.167
IP     1430.7 1446.7   1343.7 1339.0
H        1396   1497     1240   1405
R         834    716      639    686
ER        760    627      600    620
BB        687    395      539    468
K        1250    928     1110    959
HR        210    166      157    130
BB/9     4.32   2.46     3.61   3.15
K/9      7.86   5.77     7.43   6.45
HR/9     1.32   1.03     1.05   0.87
WHIP     1.46   1.31     1.32   1.40
# Pit   24619  22583    21861  21704
#P/IP    17.2   15.6     16.3   16.2

[jersey cubs fan]

Not to mention, that I should say that sometimes those walks statistic is sometimes skewed, becuase of the pitiful umpiring. We all know that there were some pitches that were really close in the middle of the plate, where the homeplate umpire just didn't say anything, other than "Ball 4, take your base."

 

What's that now?