2007 Cubs Minor League Wrap-Up

[Outshined_One]

With the Tennessee's loss, the Cubs' minor league affiliates have all wrapped up their seasons. It sucks that two teams lost out on the playoffs due to tiebreakers and that Tennessee suffered some tough losses in their playoff series. That said, a huge round of applause is in order for the minor league teams giving us another great season!

 

=D>

 

However, now comes the fun part...talent evaluation! Let the wild predictions, vaguely ad hominem attacks, and bickering begin!

[don_kessinger_was_good]

I figure 2007 draftees should be discussed separately, since the evidence is so brief to-date (though I love Thomas big-time).

 

Prospects that helped themselves the most in 2007:

Soto, Gallagher, Hart, Kroeger, Holliman, Hoffpauir, Pignatiello, Atkins, Papelbon, Roquet, Ceda

 

Biggest disappointments in 2007:

Dopirak, Harvey (both in perpetuity), Mateo, Cedeno (classic 4A), Samardzija

 

Prospects I'm sorry to see leave in 2007:

Blevins, Rapada

 

Most likely to be a difference-maker in the big leagues w/in 2 years:

Maybe Soto, maybe Pie, maybe Ceda

 

My top ten list (ignoring 07 draftees):

1. Soto

2. Pie

3. Gallagher

4. Kroeger

5. Patterson

6. Atkins

7. Colvin

8. Ceda

9. Samardzija

10. Petrick

Just missed: Papelbon, Holliman, Pignatiello

[Guest]

Biggest disappointments in 2007:

Dopirak, Harvey (both in perpetuity), Mateo, Cedeno (classic 4A), Samardzija

Veal

[CuseCubFan69]

I want to thank all of you that put so much time and effort into the minor league thread. I and I'm sure many others really appreciated it!

 

Thanks!

[CubinNY]

I want to thank all of you that put so much time and effort into the minor league thread. I and I'm sure many others really appreciated it!

 

Thanks!

Ditto. I am astounded by the knowledge displayed in this forum. I learn something new every day.

[nick23]

Is it too early to put Thomas and Donaldson on the list of players that helped themselves the most this season? I'm really excited about these two guys.

[YearofDaCubs]

Yes, a huge thank you to everyone. I love reading about our minor league system.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Biggest disappointments in 2007:

Dopirak, Harvey (both in perpetuity), Mateo, Cedeno (classic 4A), Samardzija

Veal

 

Oops. Obviously.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think Soto definitely helped himself the most this year, as he pretty much earned a starting job in 2008 after going into 2007 as a questionable backup. Not sure if Pie still qualifies, but he'd probably be atop my list, as he outperformed my expectations. It's very difficult for me to determine any sort of top 3, given the lack of true top-line talent. I think there's a good group of mid-tier guys though.

 

Colvin and Samardzija both disappointed me, even if the club probably was a bit overaggressive with their promotions. Colvin had some good numbers that will please many people, but his red flags are enormous. Veal was disappointing as well. All three, however, probably did enough to keep up hopes they can contribute in a positive way by 2009.

[Shawon12]

I want to add my thanks to Outshined, Raisin and everyone else who contributed to the Minor League forum. For me personally, this forum keeps NSBB at a higher level than all other sites.

[Outshined_One]

Thank you to everyone for your gratitude. Raisin may complain about the amount of work this is, but I enjoy it too much to do so. :D

 

I'll contribute plenty to this thread in good time, but for the moment, I would like to address Tyler Colvin. I've done a lot of thinking about his performance this season.

 

The guy has taken a pounding from this board pretty much from the moment he was drafted. At times, the criticism has been justified, but at other times, it's been completely overboard. I understand the Cubs have had difficulty developing good position players from their own system, but come on people, Colvin isn't nearly as bad as you've been making him out to be. He's actually...*GASP!* good!

 

In fact, I plan on making him my #1 overall prospect for this go-round.

 

Here are a few things about Colvin that I'd like to say in his defense...

 

1) When he was drafted, most people thought Colvin would end up being a LF/1B type of player because he lacks the defensive prowess to effectively patrol CF and he does not have the arm for RF. However, for most of this season, Colvin has spent significant time all over the OF, namely CF. Thus far, I've heard nothing but compliments on his abilities out there. From the sound of things, he is more than capable of being an everyday CF.

 

2) One of the most common criticisms about Colvin is his plate discipline. I'll get to the BB part of it in a moment, but the K part needs to be addressed. I get the sense that people see Colvin as if he's going to turn into some horrifying strikeout machine in the majors. Want to know something? His strikeout rate is comparable to, if not better than, some of the top hitting prospects right now.

 

I'm not a fan of measuring strikeouts as a way of determining a prospect's potential success level. Hitters like Albert Pujols and Barry Bonds who have freakish K/BB numbers and are major power threats are rare. Meanwhile, guys like Brian Dopirak and Ryan Harvey have flamed out more because of the fact they can't take a walk than anything else. Look at the minor league numbers of Ryan Howard and Nick Swisher, both of whom struck out quite a noteworthy amount in their minor league careers. Yet, they've become successful major leaguers at the plate. It's not an aberration for a guy to post high strikeout numbers in the minors and go on to have a very good career.

 

Here's my point. I'm not worried about Colvin's strikeouts. He's managed to put up reasonably decent numbers at Daytona and Tennessee against pitchers who have decent breaking balls. Stop fussing over his Ks already.

 

3) His BABIP in Tennessee and Daytona have not been so unreasonable to make me think he's a career .240 with a horseshoe up his rear.

 

4) Hey, look at that! A 77% success rate with stole bases, with a total of 17 on the season! It'd be nice to have an outfielder with some speed who isn't a complete nitwit on the basepaths for once.

 

In essence, he has the potential to at least become a league average player. Only two things bug me about him...

 

1) The walk rate. This sucker has been covered ad nauseam and I really don't need to cover it any more. It's his biggest problem, but if he becomes even mediocre at it, he'll stick in the majors as a starter somewhere. If he keeps this up...it'll be interesting to see how his career goes.

 

2) This one you don't hear much about, but Colvin's power is something which will merit watching next season. This problem is also a distant second to problem #1. The Cubs talked about Colvin as a "late bloomer" in the power department when they drafted him, as memory serves me, and power is traditionally one of the last tools to develop. Still, if he's going to play in the OF, I'd like to see some more power output from him.

 

So, that's my take on Colvin. If you disagree, you can just go drop the soap for all I care. :P

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't have a problem with K's, if they are accompanied by a fair amount of other things. The problem with Colvin isn't just that he strikes out a lot, or just that he doesn't walk, or just that he doesn't really produce a heck of a lot, it's that he's not especially productive and strikes out and doesn't walk at all. You can't seperate the K and BB and say his K's are acceptable and all he needs to work on is the walk. His K/BB together are a huge red flag. I'm fairly confident in him being able to make the majors and look like he has a clue. But the big red flags provide tremendous doubt that he'll ever be more than a decent average, weak OBP, mediocre SLG bottom of the order hitter.

[the splendid splinter]

Thank you to everyone for your gratitude. Raisin may complain about the amount of work this is, but I enjoy it too much to do so. :D

 

I'll contribute plenty to this thread in good time, but for the moment, I would like to address Tyler Colvin. I've done a lot of thinking about his performance this season.

 

The guy has taken a pounding from this board pretty much from the moment he was drafted. At times, the criticism has been justified, but at other times, it's been completely overboard. I understand the Cubs have had difficulty developing good position players from their own system, but come on people, Colvin isn't nearly as bad as you've been making him out to be. He's actually...*GASP!* good!

 

In fact, I plan on making him my #1 overall prospect for this go-round.

 

Here are a few things about Colvin that I'd like to say in his defense...

 

1) When he was drafted, most people thought Colvin would end up being a LF/1B type of player because he lacks the defensive prowess to effectively patrol CF and he does not have the arm for RF. However, for most of this season, Colvin has spent significant time all over the OF, namely CF. Thus far, I've heard nothing but compliments on his abilities out there. From the sound of things, he is more than capable of being an everyday CF.

 

2) One of the most common criticisms about Colvin is his plate discipline. I'll get to the BB part of it in a moment, but the K part needs to be addressed. I get the sense that people see Colvin as if he's going to turn into some horrifying strikeout machine in the majors. Want to know something? His strikeout rate is comparable to, if not better than, some of the top hitting prospects right now.

 

I'm not a fan of measuring strikeouts as a way of determining a prospect's potential success level. Hitters like Albert Pujols and Barry Bonds who have freakish K/BB numbers and are major power threats are rare. Meanwhile, guys like Brian Dopirak and Ryan Harvey have flamed out more because of the fact they can't take a walk than anything else. Look at the minor league numbers of Ryan Howard and Nick Swisher, both of whom struck out quite a noteworthy amount in their minor league careers. Yet, they've become successful major leaguers at the plate. It's not an aberration for a guy to post high strikeout numbers in the minors and go on to have a very good career.

 

Here's my point. I'm not worried about Colvin's strikeouts. He's managed to put up reasonably decent numbers at Daytona and Tennessee against pitchers who have decent breaking balls. Stop fussing over his Ks already.

 

3) His BABIP in Tennessee and Daytona have not been so unreasonable to make me think he's a career .240 with a horseshoe up his rear.

 

4) Hey, look at that! A 77% success rate with stole bases, with a total of 17 on the season! It'd be nice to have an outfielder with some speed who isn't a complete nitwit on the basepaths for once.

 

In essence, he has the potential to at least become a league average player. Only two things bug me about him...

 

1) The walk rate. This sucker has been covered ad nauseam and I really don't need to cover it any more. It's his biggest problem, but if he becomes even mediocre at it, he'll stick in the majors as a starter somewhere. If he keeps this up...it'll be interesting to see how his career goes.

 

2) This one you don't hear much about, but Colvin's power is something which will merit watching next season. This problem is also a distant second to problem #1. The Cubs talked about Colvin as a "late bloomer" in the power department when they drafted him, as memory serves me, and power is traditionally one of the last tools to develop. Still, if he's going to play in the OF, I'd like to see some more power output from him.

 

So, that's my take on Colvin. If you disagree, you can just go drop the soap for all I care. :P

Well put Outshined! At 21 yrs old where most guys his age would be just starting at Boise tops, he competed very well at Tennessee/Daytona. Personally I think he's got the whole ball of wax, including an arm as some (scouts have described as avg or better). Pretty sure he had well over 10 assists which isnt the complete way of grading an arm but his arm strength and accuracy sounds like its at least avg or better. Also Outshined I'll pass on the soap !!

[the splendid splinter]

Is it too early to put Thomas and Donaldson on the list of players that helped themselves the most this season? I'm really excited about these two guys.

Its never to early and they are close to Top 10 if not on the back side and Wyatt and Wright are in the Top 20 possibly, along with Russell and Acosta.

[rawaction]

I like Colvin. I'm very pleasantly surprised his defense has turned out to be as good as it is. The power, I don't see as much of a problem. He did hit 35 doubles and 15 HRs in less than 500 ABs. Again, that's in 2 tough leagues for power. I think he can hit for a decent amount of power in the majors (15-20 HRs). The lack of BBs is disturbing. Next year will be a big year for him, as he should repeat AA. His walk rate decreased in the jump for high A to AA. He doesn't strike out at an alarming rate, maybe a little over what you want from a guy that doesn't have big time run producing power.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Is it too early to put Thomas and Donaldson on the list of players that helped themselves the most this season? I'm really excited about these two guys.

Its never to early and they are close to Top 10 if not on the back side and Wyatt and Wright are in the Top 20 possibly, along with Russell and Acosta.

 

Thomas is in my top 10, absolutely. I just wanted to focus on guys that were here a year ago at this time.

[Guest]

Is it too early to put Thomas and Donaldson on the list of players that helped themselves the most this season? I'm really excited about these two guys.

Its never to early and they are close to Top 10 if not on the back side and Wyatt and Wright are in the Top 20 possibly, along with Russell and Acosta.

 

Hrm, you're much higher on Wyatt than I am.

[the splendid splinter]

Is it too early to put Thomas and Donaldson on the list of players that helped themselves the most this season? I'm really excited about these two guys.

Its never to early and they are close to Top 10 if not on the back side and Wyatt and Wright are in the Top 20 possibly, along with Russell and Acosta.

 

Hrm, you're much higher on Wyatt than I am.

True Cf and can hit some and takes his walks, but Raisin your probably right, but Ill bet he's close to top 30 baseball americas list.

[Outshined_One]

I have to figure out who qualifies as a rookie and who doesn't. Guys like Pie, Gallagher, and Soto will figure into matters, but if they don't qualify, I won't put them on my Top 10 Prospect list.

 

Out of the latest crop of draftees, I expect Vitters and Donaldson to make my list with Thomas likely just missing the cut due to his defensive issues.

[Guest]

I have to figure out who qualifies as a rookie and who doesn't. Guys like Pie, Gallagher, and Soto will figure into matters, but if they don't qualify, I won't put them on my Top 10 Prospect list.

 

Out of the latest crop of draftees, I expect Vitters and Donaldson to make my list with Thomas likely just missing the cut due to his defensive issues.

 

Fontenot and Pie are rookies; Fox, Fuld, Gallagher, Hart, Mateo, Patterson, Petrick, Pignatiello and Soto are still eligible to be rookies next season.

Edited September 12, 2007 by CaliforniaRaisin

[Guest]

By the way, for those of you who like BA's league top-20 prospect lists, this year they're trying to get a DSL (and maybe a VSL or combo) top prospect list too.

[Mephistopheles]

colvin will never be anything better than a .275 eqa CO with average defense. sometimes he will be stuck in cf where his defense is well below average. he will be alright against righties but will be thoroughly manhandled by southpaws.

 

in otherwords. he's a white jacque jones at best.

[CubColtPacer]

colvin will never be anything better than a .275 eqa CO with average defense. sometimes he will be stuck in cf where his defense is well below average. he will be alright against righties but will be thoroughly manhandled by southpaws.

 

in otherwords. he's a white jacque jones at best.

 

How can you say that when everyone who has seen him in CF this year describes his defense as well above average?

[cubweiser03]

Soto:

It goes without say that Soto had an awesome year. Sure he has now repeated AAA 3 times but its not like hes 27 doing this. I thought last year he had a pretty good year at 23YO, this year he added the power. Legit.

 

Colvin:

If it wasnt for his 1st round pick auro i dont think he would be much of a prospect. He's not much of one in my book. As pointed out previously his BB/K ratio is Terrible. Bad BB/K ratios are a red flag, his is the red flag with the black square in the middle. I understand he has the 'tools' and i have yet to see him play but man those tools better start to exhibit themselves very quickly.

 

Donaldson:

Im not sure how much of a prospect this kid is but man he put up some great #s at Boise. Unlike Colvin this kid has great BB/K ratio (37/34) AND hits for average. Alright yes Donaldson is the same age as Colvin and is 21YO in Boise so its not like hes 18/19. His ISOD of .124 is great, but its another to do it with a batting average of .346, thats really awesome. Nice pop in the bat too.

 

Ceda:

Peoria=46IP/14H. What the hell is that?!

66ks too.

 

Gallagher:

Another good year in the minors, especially Iowa. Great HR/IP ratio. Sure he struggled in MLB but after seeing him pitch i like his fastball and really like his tight/hard curve.

[jersey cubs fan]

colvin will never be anything better than a .275 eqa CO with average defense. sometimes he will be stuck in cf where his defense is well below average. he will be alright against righties but will be thoroughly manhandled by southpaws.

 

in otherwords. he's a white jacque jones at best.

 

How can you say that when everyone who has seen him in CF this year describes his defense as well above average?

 

99% of people who see Jeter play SS say he's great defensively.