Steve Trachsel is here, like it or not

[A New Era]

Woah! Heh heh. I have alot of reading to do.

[Keener98]

You're blaming the poor pitching squarely on the defense? That's just not true. Suppan's been atrocious, Capuano sucked, and Dave Bush has been a little less than "okay." If you swapped our rotations, the Cubs would have the better one, because the Cubs rotation is actually good. The Crew's is terrible. We're not ahead of you in the standings because we play good defense, we're ahead because our starters are good and your's are bad.

 

Yea there isnt much the Brewers D can do on all those Hr's Capuano has been giving up.

[Ender]

You're blaming the poor pitching squarely on the defense? That's just not true. Suppan's been atrocious, Capuano sucked, and Dave Bush has been a little less than "okay." If you swapped our rotations, the Cubs would have the better one, because the Cubs rotation is actually good. The Crew's is terrible. We're not ahead of you in the standings because we play good defense, we're ahead because our starters are good and your's are bad.

 

Got any proof at all to back that up? Every fielding metric in the game points at the Brewers as having one of the worst defensive ball clubs in baseball. Every pitching stat that corresponds from year to year shows the Brewers pitching itself is as good as the Cubs.

 

The plus/minus system lists the Cubs as +54 and the Brewers as -40 which means as many as 94 extra plays have been made by the Cubs defense. This is why the Cubs have a BABIP against of .288 while the Brewers have a .319. The Cubs K/9 is 7.3 vs Brewers 7.1, BB/9 is 3.7 vs Brewers 3.1. HR/9 is 1.1 vs 1.0.

 

Yea there isnt much the Brewers D can do on all those Hr's Capuano has been giving up

 

The Cubs have given up more HR/G than the Brewers on the year so I hardly see your point. Capuano has been giving up a lot of HR's, Zambrano has been giving up a ton of BB's, those things are included in the overall stats.

[Roast]

If he pitches well, I hope we can get him for next year.

 

 

:shock:

 

Or...

 

we could not and say we did.

[jaydee]

Good to know the Brewers fielding is the only reason their pitching is horrible. Man, sometimes the internet produces such insane ideas you just have to laugh.

[Ender]

Good to know the Brewers fielding is the only reason their pitching is horrible. Man, sometimes the internet produces such insane ideas you just have to laugh.

 

Laugh all you want but at least I have some sort of statistical proof to back up my opinion instead of just looking at ERA and saying see here is my proof. I cannot believe in this day and age there are still people who judge pitching this way.

 

Thats not to say the Brewers have an amazing starting rotation. Sheets is an Ace, Gallardo is eventually a #1 or #2 most likely but Bush, Suppan, Capuano and Vargas are all #4/#5 starters. But the majority of the problems with the team's pitching this year compared to their 3 year averages is just how terrible the fielding is.

[jaydee]

Good to know the Brewers fielding is the only reason their pitching is horrible. Man, sometimes the internet produces such insane ideas you just have to laugh.

 

Laugh all you want but at least I have some sort of statistical proof to back up my opinion instead of just looking at ERA and saying see here is my proof. I cannot believe in this day and age there are still people who judge pitching this way.

 

Thats not to say the Brewers have an amazing starting rotation. Sheets is an Ace, Gallardo is eventually a #1 or #2 most likely but Bush, Suppan, Capuano and Vargas are all #4/#5 starters. But the majority of the problems with the team's pitching this year compared to their 3 year averages is just how terrible the fielding is.

 

So ERA isn't a statistic? What is so horrible about ERA, but so great about choosing a statistic which just ignores hits given up, and assumes that hits is a stat that the defense is entirely responsible for(which is a pretty simplistic view)?

[RammyFanny]

Good to know the Brewers fielding is the only reason their pitching is horrible. Man, sometimes the internet produces such insane ideas you just have to laugh.

 

Laugh all you want but at least I have some sort of statistical proof to back up my opinion instead of just looking at ERA and saying see here is my proof. I cannot believe in this day and age there are still people who judge pitching this way.

 

Thats not to say the Brewers have an amazing starting rotation. Sheets is an Ace, Gallardo is eventually a #1 or #2 most likely but Bush, Suppan, Capuano and Vargas are all #4/#5 starters. But the majority of the problems with the team's pitching this year compared to their 3 year averages is just how terrible the fielding is.

 

So ERA isn't a statistic? What is so horrible about ERA, but so great about choosing a statistic which just ignores hits given up, and assumes that hits is a stat that the defense is entirely responsible for(which is a pretty simplistic view)?

 

+1

[inari]

Good to know the Brewers fielding is the only reason their pitching is horrible. Man, sometimes the internet produces such insane ideas you just have to laugh.

 

Laugh all you want but at least I have some sort of statistical proof to back up my opinion instead of just looking at ERA and saying see here is my proof. I cannot believe in this day and age there are still people who judge pitching this way.

 

Thats not to say the Brewers have an amazing starting rotation. Sheets is an Ace, Gallardo is eventually a #1 or #2 most likely but Bush, Suppan, Capuano and Vargas are all #4/#5 starters. But the majority of the problems with the team's pitching this year compared to their 3 year averages is just how terrible the fielding is.

 

Just about every statistic except the one you picked says the Brewers pitching is terrible (because it is).

[Ender]

Good to know the Brewers fielding is the only reason their pitching is horrible. Man, sometimes the internet produces such insane ideas you just have to laugh.

 

Laugh all you want but at least I have some sort of statistical proof to back up my opinion instead of just looking at ERA and saying see here is my proof. I cannot believe in this day and age there are still people who judge pitching this way.

 

Thats not to say the Brewers have an amazing starting rotation. Sheets is an Ace, Gallardo is eventually a #1 or #2 most likely but Bush, Suppan, Capuano and Vargas are all #4/#5 starters. But the majority of the problems with the team's pitching this year compared to their 3 year averages is just how terrible the fielding is.

 

So ERA isn't a statistic? What is so horrible about ERA, but so great about choosing a statistic which just ignores hits given up, and assumes that hits is a stat that the defense is entirely responsible for(which is a pretty simplistic view)?

 

ERA doesn't correlate from season to season, it has an extreme amount of noise in it. Look at Joe Blanton in 2005 and 2006, he pitched better in 2006 and had an ERA that was way higher. ERA is a combination of luck, how well you pitched, your home park, your bullpen and the defense behind you. The stats I pointed are mostly just controlled by the pitcher and show much stronger year to year correlation.

 

Even if you don't buy into something like BABIP the fielding metrics fully support the opinion.

 

Teams with very good plus/minus universally have better ERA's than FIP's. Those with very bad plus/minus universally have worse ERA's than FIP's. There is a very real correlation between fielding and ERA and that is pretty much out of the pitchers hands.

 

Capuano is a great example of a pitcher whose ERA doesn't really correspond with how he has pitched. 67% of his ground balls have been fielded for outs; the major league average is 75% so he obviously is giving up a lot more singles than he should. His bullpen has given up 3.904 runs more than expected on him.

 

Compare his 2005 to his 2007 and he's actually pitched better overall but in 2005 he had a 3.99 ERA! Thats not to say he's a 3.99 ERA pitcher, he was extremely lucky in 2005 and has been unlucky in 2007, his true ERA level is probably around a 4.60 or so both seasons. 2006 is the only good year in his career and that was driven by a big reduction in walks.

 

Just about every statistic except the one you picked says the Brewers pitching is terrible (because it is).

 

Every single stat except ERA disagrees with you and even if you are going to judge just by ERA they are roughly league average, not terrible.

 

Anyway its not worth it, since anything I say will be chalked up to me being a Brewer fan. If you want to have a really honest discussion about how to evaluate pitching we can do that, but I don't think that is where this thread is really going.

[Mizzou]

Capuano is a great example of a pitcher whose ERA doesn't really correspond with how he has pitched. 67% of his ground balls have been fielded for outs; the major league average is 75% so he obviously is giving up a lot more singles than he should.

I love how you say this like it's a fact. It couldn't possibly be that maybe the grounders that Capuano gives up are hit a lot harder than this major league average pitcher that your computer has calculated, could it?

 

Just because a pitcher gives up more ground ball hits than his peers, doesn't mean he's unlucky. It could, and likely does, mean that the hits he gives up are because he's not as good as the average pitcher.

[Keener98]

Good to know the Brewers fielding is the only reason their pitching is horrible. Man, sometimes the internet produces such insane ideas you just have to laugh.

 

Laugh all you want but at least I have some sort of statistical proof to back up my opinion instead of just looking at ERA and saying see here is my proof. I cannot believe in this day and age there are still people who judge pitching this way.

 

Thats not to say the Brewers have an amazing starting rotation. Sheets is an Ace, Gallardo is eventually a #1 or #2 most likely but Bush, Suppan, Capuano and Vargas are all #4/#5 starters. But the majority of the problems with the team's pitching this year compared to their 3 year averages is just how terrible the fielding is.

 

So ERA isn't a statistic? What is so horrible about ERA, but so great about choosing a statistic which just ignores hits given up, and assumes that hits is a stat that the defense is entirely responsible for(which is a pretty simplistic view)?

 

ERA doesn't correlate from season to season, it has an extreme amount of noise in it. Look at Joe Blanton in 2005 and 2006, he pitched better in 2006 and had an ERA that was way higher. ERA is a combination of luck, how well you pitched, your home park, your bullpen and the defense behind you. The stats I pointed are mostly just controlled by the pitcher and show much stronger year to year correlation.

 

Even if you don't buy into something like BABIP the fielding metrics fully support the opinion.

 

Teams with very good plus/minus universally have better ERA's than FIP's. Those with very bad plus/minus universally have worse ERA's than FIP's. There is a very real correlation between fielding and ERA and that is pretty much out of the pitchers hands.

 

Capuano is a great example of a pitcher whose ERA doesn't really correspond with how he has pitched. 67% of his ground balls have been fielded for outs; the major league average is 75% so he obviously is giving up a lot more singles than he should. His bullpen has given up 3.904 runs more than expected on him.

 

Compare his 2005 to his 2007 and he's actually pitched better overall but in 2005 he had a 3.99 ERA! Thats not to say he's a 3.99 ERA pitcher, he was extremely lucky in 2005 and has been unlucky in 2007, his true ERA level is probably around a 4.60 or so both seasons. 2006 is the only good year in his career and that was driven by a big reduction in walks.

 

Just about every statistic except the one you picked says the Brewers pitching is terrible (because it is).

 

Every single stat except ERA disagrees with you and even if you are going to judge just by ERA they are roughly league average, not terrible.

 

Anyway its not worth it, since anything I say will be chalked up to me being a Brewer fan. If you want to have a really honest discussion about how to evaluate pitching we can do that, but I don't think that is where this thread is really going.

 

Capuano has sucked because hes giving up Hr's at an alarming rate.

[Illini Iceman]

Good to know the Brewers fielding is the only reason their pitching is horrible. Man, sometimes the internet produces such insane ideas you just have to laugh.

 

Laugh all you want but at least I have some sort of statistical proof to back up my opinion instead of just looking at ERA and saying see here is my proof. I cannot believe in this day and age there are still people who judge pitching this way.

 

Thats not to say the Brewers have an amazing starting rotation. Sheets is an Ace, Gallardo is eventually a #1 or #2 most likely but Bush, Suppan, Capuano and Vargas are all #4/#5 starters. But the majority of the problems with the team's pitching this year compared to their 3 year averages is just how terrible the fielding is.

 

So ERA isn't a statistic? What is so horrible about ERA, but so great about choosing a statistic which just ignores hits given up, and assumes that hits is a stat that the defense is entirely responsible for(which is a pretty simplistic view)?

 

ERA doesn't correlate from season to season, it has an extreme amount of noise in it. Look at Joe Blanton in 2005 and 2006, he pitched better in 2006 and had an ERA that was way higher. ERA is a combination of luck, how well you pitched, your home park, your bullpen and the defense behind you. The stats I pointed are mostly just controlled by the pitcher and show much stronger year to year correlation.

 

Even if you don't buy into something like BABIP the fielding metrics fully support the opinion.

 

Teams with very good plus/minus universally have better ERA's than FIP's. Those with very bad plus/minus universally have worse ERA's than FIP's. There is a very real correlation between fielding and ERA and that is pretty much out of the pitchers hands.

 

Capuano is a great example of a pitcher whose ERA doesn't really correspond with how he has pitched. 67% of his ground balls have been fielded for outs; the major league average is 75% so he obviously is giving up a lot more singles than he should. His bullpen has given up 3.904 runs more than expected on him.

 

Compare his 2005 to his 2007 and he's actually pitched better overall but in 2005 he had a 3.99 ERA! Thats not to say he's a 3.99 ERA pitcher, he was extremely lucky in 2005 and has been unlucky in 2007, his true ERA level is probably around a 4.60 or so both seasons. 2006 is the only good year in his career and that was driven by a big reduction in walks.

 

Just about every statistic except the one you picked says the Brewers pitching is terrible (because it is).

 

Every single stat except ERA disagrees with you and even if you are going to judge just by ERA they are roughly league average, not terrible.

 

Anyway its not worth it, since anything I say will be chalked up to me being a Brewer fan. If you want to have a really honest discussion about how to evaluate pitching we can do that, but I don't think that is where this thread is really going.

 

Capuano has sucked because hes giving up Hr's at an alarming rate.

 

Yeah, he even gave up two to the Cubs in one inning which is a pretty amazing feat since that is usually about a week's worth for them.

[seanimal]

Well this thread should put an end to the debate as to whether or not there are a bunch of 'sabermetric drones' on this board.

 

lol @ ERA.

[abuck1220]

so marshall is officially being skipped. what a crock.

[Soul]

so marshall is officially being skipped. what a crock.

 

Why? I don't understand why. Might it not actually give him a chance to rest and come back stronger?

[abuck1220]

so marshall is officially being skipped. what a crock.

 

Why? I don't understand why.

 

because trachsel is not good. that's why.

[Magnetic Curses]

so marshall is officially being skipped. what a crock.

 

Why? I don't understand why.

 

because trachsel is not good. that's why.

 

i don't think marshall is good, either. i'd look to deal him in the offseason to make room for gallagher. get something for him while he still has some perceived value. i don't see a future for marshall in the cub organization.

 

if trachsel can finish up with around a 4 run era, i think the deal works out.

 

i'm really lukewarm about the trade. i'm not at all excited about it, but i'm not outraged.

[VanceJergins]

so marshall is officially being skipped. what a crock.

 

Why? I don't understand why.

 

because trachsel is not good. that's why.

 

Marshall has been averaging less than 75 pitches per start the past month. It really seems like he needs a break. I'd rather see what Gallagher's got, but I think giving Trachsel a couple starts in Marshall's place is a good thing. I just hope that if Trachsel sucks it up they'll give Marshall the spot back after a couple times through the rotation.

[Soul]

so marshall is officially being skipped. what a crock.

 

Why? I don't understand why.

 

because trachsel is not good. that's why.

 

Marshall has been averaging less than 75 pitches per start the past month. It really seems like he needs a break. I'd rather see what Gallagher's got, but I think giving Trachsel a couple starts in Marshall's place is a good thing. I just hope that if Trachsel sucks it up they'll give Marshall the spot back after a couple times through the rotation.

 

I thought Steve had been better lately.

 

Anyway my main interest in this is to give Sean a little recharge, not to replace him entirely with Steve Trachsel. But, maybe they'll do exactly that, and I won't be real happy with it.

[Mephistopheles]

Keep in mind that Trachsel pitching "better" included all of eight strikeouts in thirty-eight innings.

[Keener98]

so marshall is officially being skipped. what a crock.

 

Why? I don't understand why.

 

because trachsel is not good. that's why.

 

Marshall has been averaging less than 75 pitches per start the past month. It really seems like he needs a break. I'd rather see what Gallagher's got, but I think giving Trachsel a couple starts in Marshall's place is a good thing. I just hope that if Trachsel sucks it up they'll give Marshall the spot back after a couple times through the rotation.

 

Lou has taken Marshall out numerous times this year when Marshall wasnt struggling at all. Him averaging 75 pitches is out of his control since Lou seems to have a very quick hook when it comes to Marshall.

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

Lou has taken Marshall out numerous times this year when Marshall wasnt struggling at all. Him averaging 75 pitches is out of his control since Lou seems to have a very quick hook when it comes to Marshall.

 

You're right about the quick hook, but Marshall is averaging 84.8 pitches per start.

[haltz]

This is why the Cubs have a BABIP against of .288 while the Brewers have a .319.

The Brewers defense is obviously awful, but all five of the Cubs starters probably have some control over their BABIP to varying degrees. The only one with a career number higher than .288 is Lilly at .290. FIP does some slight under and overrating when it comes to BABIP. It doesn't look like there's much skill here among the Brewers rotation.

 

The Cubs have given up more HR/G than the Brewers on the year so I hardly see your point. Capuano has been giving up a lot of HR's, Zambrano has been giving up a ton of BB's, those things are included in the overall stats.

Five more, and there's a park factor here.

[hardcorecubfan]

everyone is talking about a marshal rest, I understand and hope that he is used as a spot starter for everyone so they can all have an extra day of rest but it is Zambrano that definetly needs a rest.