Evaluating the trading chips

[craig]

I think the Cubs are in kind of a good spot and kind of a bad spot in terms of trade chips. Obviously a "chip" that good for getting Kendall or Stairs is different from a chip for wigginton which is in a different world from the kind of chips to get Linebrink or Greinke or Johan Santana or Teix or Dunn or Griffey.

 

The Cubs have a lot of value variety, and a fair quantity of guys who you could include in a Wigginton-scale trade without missing much.

 

Gallagher, Mateo, Petrick, Roquet, Veal, Cherry, Rapada, Cotts, and even Hart or Holliman could have varying degrees of value. None of those are guys we couldn't live without, if we got somebody useful in exchange. Obviousy Cotts, Hart, and Holliman are pretty long shots to ever help us. But Gallagher, Mateo, Petrick, Roquet Veal, and Cherry are all guys who could become useful for us if we keep them and they progress, perhaps extremely useful. If somebody wants an arm or two, we have at least some to offer, and it's not the end of the world.

 

I think Roquet might be of surprising value. BA talked him up as throwing pretty hard. Not sure if it's really true. But his results this year are really good, and not inconsistent with him throwing hard enough to be a potential 8th inning guy. Miniscule ERA, high K's, zero HR's, strong GB/FB ratio. A reliever who keeps the ball in the park and K's a lot of guys, lots to like there. Walks could be lower, but they aren't unacceptable. Being an unfamiliar name who we didn't draft, I doubt Hendry would cry about losing him or get attacked by fans the way he might if he traded Veal or Gallagher.

 

For players, Pie, Murton, Cedeno, Soto, Patterson, Kroeger, Moore, Fox, those are all guys who have varying potential to become major leaguers. The odds of some of them ever becoming solid big-league regular starters varies a lot, but there is some range of guys you could use depending on how good the guy you were trading for was.

 

Part of the problem is that several of them are of value to us. Most of the better ones are essentially unblocked, and we may need them ourselves to fill our own holes long-term. A trade could reverse that, of course; if you trade for an established starting shortstop or catcher, than you could include Cedeno or Soto because they'd immediately be blocked. Or if you get a solid starting outfielder, then Murton is immediately blocked and becomes expendable. Sometimes those kinds of trades are the ones that work best, actually. Non-contender trades their proven but salaried catcher for your Soto; they have an immediate replacement. But a lot of those guys I don't really want to trade because I think they might well be useful starters for us next year and beyond.

 

To me, I'd be leary of including any of Pie, Murton, Cedeno, or Soto. Any one of them could be starting for us next April. Or, frankly, perhaps even this October.

 

Patterson, Moore, Kroeger, Fox, those guys seem unlikely to me to ever be asset starters. If you can get somebody for Eric that's useful, hopefully now and next year too, I wouldn't mind a lot. We've already got DeRosa, Fontenot, and Theriot all clogging up 2B. Patterson might someday be better, but that's iffy, and if he is, it may not be by much.

 

Kroeger I wonder about. He's new to us, and obviously was a castoff this winter. Is this a guy who might actually be a big-league starting outfielder? Based on this year only, I'd think why not? But given his history, I wonder if he has much trade value if any?

[seanimal]

I think Griffey is much more likely than Dunn. Dunn is way under appreciated by other clubs and somewhat over appreciated by his own club. Griffey, on the other hand, hasn't seen his value this high since the glory days of the turn of the century. Krivsky would be an absolute moron to not deal him this summer. The caveat being that he is already a complete idiot, which is only one non-trade away from being an absolute moron.

[Cubfan_N_nebraska]

Cedeno is a good chip to use if the other team thinks he can finally produce in the majors. Leave Petrick alone use Hill or Marshall. Marshall before Hill. Petrick may not play a role in the bullpen this year but I feel he can really make an impact next year and the years to come.

[CubinNY]

Cedeno is a good chip to use if the other team thinks he can finally produce in the majors. Leave Petrick alone use Hill or Marshall. Marshall before Hill. Petrick may not play a role in the bullpen this year but I feel he can really make an impact next year and the years to come.

Theriot might be a better trade value than Cedeno. He's got the Ecstein factor in triplicate. And I think Cedeno will be a better player long term.

[frostwyrm]

I'm all for dumping Murton. There's no way the Cubs view him as a longterm RF and LF is locked up for the next 8 years. In light of how little faith management has in him he should have been traded in the offseason. Soto should be shopped too since he's doing well in AAA and the Cubs seem determined to start any warm body at C instead of him.

 

I'm all for getting value for Murton, but just dumping him for the sake of dumping him?

 

He has to be moved now. He doesn't belong in the minors and he's not in the Cubs' plans for the future as a starter. He's more valuable as trade bait than as a bench player who mostly just faces lefties, which is about all he can hope for with the Cubs.

[CoolHandLuke]

I think the Cubs are in kind of a good spot and kind of a bad spot in terms of trade chips. Obviously a "chip" that good for getting Kendall or Stairs is different from a chip for wigginton which is in a different world from the kind of chips to get Linebrink or Greinke or Johan Santana or Teix or Dunn or Griffey.

 

The Cubs have a lot of value variety, and a fair quantity of guys who you could include in a Wigginton-scale trade without missing much.

 

Gallagher, Mateo, Petrick, Roquet, Veal, Cherry, Rapada, Cotts, and even Hart or Holliman could have varying degrees of value. None of those are guys we couldn't live without, if we got somebody useful in exchange. Obviousy Cotts, Hart, and Holliman are pretty long shots to ever help us. But Gallagher, Mateo, Petrick, Roquet Veal, and Cherry are all guys who could become useful for us if we keep them and they progress, perhaps extremely useful. If somebody wants an arm or two, we have at least some to offer, and it's not the end of the world.

 

I think Roquet might be of surprising value. BA talked him up as throwing pretty hard. Not sure if it's really true. But his results this year are really good, and not inconsistent with him throwing hard enough to be a potential 8th inning guy. Miniscule ERA, high K's, zero HR's, strong GB/FB ratio. A reliever who keeps the ball in the park and K's a lot of guys, lots to like there. Walks could be lower, but they aren't unacceptable. Being an unfamiliar name who we didn't draft, I doubt Hendry would cry about losing him or get attacked by fans the way he might if he traded Veal or Gallagher.

 

For players, Pie, Murton, Cedeno, Soto, Patterson, Kroeger, Moore, Fox, those are all guys who have varying potential to become major leaguers. The odds of some of them ever becoming solid big-league regular starters varies a lot, but there is some range of guys you could use depending on how good the guy you were trading for was.

 

Part of the problem is that several of them are of value to us. Most of the better ones are essentially unblocked, and we may need them ourselves to fill our own holes long-term. A trade could reverse that, of course; if you trade for an established starting shortstop or catcher, than you could include Cedeno or Soto because they'd immediately be blocked. Or if you get a solid starting outfielder, then Murton is immediately blocked and becomes expendable. Sometimes those kinds of trades are the ones that work best, actually. Non-contender trades their proven but salaried catcher for your Soto; they have an immediate replacement. But a lot of those guys I don't really want to trade because I think they might well be useful starters for us next year and beyond.

 

To me, I'd be leary of including any of Pie, Murton, Cedeno, or Soto. Any one of them could be starting for us next April. Or, frankly, perhaps even this October.

 

Patterson, Moore, Kroeger, Fox, those guys seem unlikely to me to ever be asset starters. If you can get somebody for Eric that's useful, hopefully now and next year too, I wouldn't mind a lot. We've already got DeRosa, Fontenot, and Theriot all clogging up 2B. Patterson might someday be better, but that's iffy, and if he is, it may not be by much.

 

Kroeger I wonder about. He's new to us, and obviously was a castoff this winter. Is this a guy who might actually be a big-league starting outfielder? Based on this year only, I'd think why not? But given his history, I wonder if he has much trade value if any?

 

You may not have the highest post count, but I can't recall ever seeing a post from you that wasn't very insightful. Thanks for being a great poster!

[SouthSideRyan]

Don't remember seeing this posted in minor league forum, but who's eligible for Rule 5 next year that may be at risk of being drafted if not rostered? I'm thinking with the depth of our system, that there may not be anybody out there, but just something to consider.