90 wins?

[David]

I did this back in 2004...so maybe I shouldn't even bother this year, but in this thread I'll try to keep track of how the Cubs have to do the rest of the way to reach 90 (and 95 and 100, just for the hell of it) as it gets more and more realistic.

 

I think the last time they won 90 in 162 games was in 89, although they definitely should've in 2004. It's a meaningless number, but it's sort of a milestone and I'd like to see the Cubs make it.

 

If they do, they're in the playoffs, more likely than not. Probably won't even need to get there to make it.

 

 

So....

 

as of 8/31

 

Cubs are 68-65

 

For

 

90 - need to go: 22-7 (barely doable...schedule allows for it, but will take lots of luck)

Edited September 1, 2007 by David

[UMFan83]

I did this back in 2004...so maybe I shouldn't even bother this year, but in this thread I'll try to keep track of how the Cubs have to do the rest of the way to reach 90 (and 95 and 100, just for the hell of it) as it gets more and more realistic.

 

I think the last time they won 90 in 162 games was in 89, although they definitely should've in 2004. It's a meaningless number, but it's sort of a milestone and I'd like to see the Cubs make it.

 

If they do, they're in the playoffs, more likely than not. Probably won't even need to get there to make it.

 

 

So....

 

as of 7/17

 

Cubs are 48-43

 

For

 

90 - need to go: 42-29 (doable?) - .591

 

95 - need to go: 47-24 (eh) - .661

 

100 - need to go: 52-19 (not happening) .732

 

If someone wants to throw in some facts about the remaining schedule (and the ease thereof), feel free. :)

 

Since I'm not at all superstitious, you guys can blame me if this winds up a jinx.

 

If we played at the same pace we've played since June 5th (26-12) for the rest of the season, we'd end up 97-65

[David]

That would be pretty sick. Super hard to sustain, though.

[CubmanPi]

If 97 wins were to happen, given all the talk of the current streak simply 'evening things out' after the first two months of the season, the way to then 'even things out' would be for the Cubs to lose the first two playoff games by so many runs that the mercy rule is invoked and the other team is awarded a 2-game sweep.

 

Either that or Milwaukee and StL both win 98 games.

[NCCubFan]

There's another thread about the remaining schedule, and I believe the Cubs have the easiest remaining schedule in the league (or maybe it was just within the division). A substantial majority of the remaining games are against teams with losing records. So I'd say the Cubs have a very good chance at winning 90 games and a halfway decent chance at 95. 100, not so much.

[third eye]

I often think of records needed to reach win milestones as well. Unfortunately the last few years it has been a pointless and frankly delusional exercise.

 

One team that really sticks out to me as a potential parallel is the 2004 braves. That was the first year I believe they were not favored to win the division (no parallel there, obviously). They had many new parts and it took the first couple of months for the team to find its identity. They languished below .500 and bottomed out at 33-39, only slightly better than where the Cubs hit bottom this year. At this point in that season, they had exactly the same record as the Cubs at 48-43. They managed to finish with 96 wins. It would seem nearly impossible for a team that far under .500 to go on an extended run like they did, but its been done before. And recent seasons have seen one team do it every year, so while that 95 win mark looks unattainable in a practical sense, it is not without precedent.

[David]

I often think of records needed to reach win milestones as well. Unfortunately the last few years it has been a pointless and frankly delusional exercise.

 

One team that really sticks out to me as a potential parallel is the 2004 braves. That was the first year I believe they were not favored to win the division (no parallel there, obviously). They had many new parts and it took the first couple of months for the team to find its identity. They languished below .500 and bottomed out at 33-39, only slightly better than where the Cubs hit bottom this year. At this point in that season, they had exactly the same record as the Cubs at 48-43. They managed to finish with 96 wins. It would seem nearly impossible for a team that far under .500 to go on an extended run like they did, but its been done before. And recent seasons have seen one team do it every year, so while that 95 win mark looks unattainable in a practical sense, it is not without precedent.

 

Good stuff. I was thinking about the similarities between that team and this one the other night.

[Ender]

There's another thread about the remaining schedule, and I believe the Cubs have the easiest remaining schedule in the league (or maybe it was just within the division). A substantial majority of the remaining games are against teams with losing records. So I'd say the Cubs have a very good chance at winning 90 games and a halfway decent chance at 95. 100, not so much.

 

Cubs were #1, Brewers #2 for easiest. Its probably swapped after this weekend since the Brewers came out with Colorado and Arizona and the Cubs came out with Houston and San Fran. Regardless they both have a joke of a schedule in the 2nd half so one of them will probably reach 90 wins.

[bhogg]

need to win 49 games first.

[inari]

Are we really at the point where most people in a thread are treating it almost as a given that we'll win around 90 games?

[third eye]

Are we really at the point where most people in a thread are treating it almost as a given that we'll win around 90 games?

 

Heck no. I don't think we are assuming anything. I'd be thrilled with 90 wins, but since that is a conventional barometer for a playoff team, I personally like to look at what level of play would be required to get there the rest of the way. On the upside, and as Davhern mentioned, for fun, it's interesting to look at how well they'd have to play to hit other round numbers of victories.

[David]

Updated as of 7/18's game

[MustangMike]

I did this back in 2004...so maybe I shouldn't even bother this year, but in this thread I'll try to keep track of how the Cubs have to do the rest of the way to reach 90 (and 95 and 100, just for the hell of it) as it gets more and more realistic.

 

I think the last time they won 90 in 162 games was in 89, although they definitely should've in 2004. It's a meaningless number, but it's sort of a milestone and I'd like to see the Cubs make it.

 

If they do, they're in the playoffs, more likely than not. Probably won't even need to get there to make it.

 

 

So....

 

as of 7/18

 

Cubs are 49-44

 

For

 

90 - need to go: 41-28 (doable?) - .594

 

95 - need to go: 46-23 (eh) - .666

 

100 - need to go: 51-18 (not happening) .739

 

If someone wants to throw in some facts about the remaining schedule (and the ease thereof), feel free. :)

 

Since I'm not at all superstitious, you guys can blame me if this winds up a jinx.

 

EDIT - Updated

 

I think this team will reach 90 wins, but not 95, with no major injuries. My wonder is if Milwaukee will go away. Their young talent seems hungry, it'll help that sheets is hurt.

[jersey cubs fan]

My early season prognostication had 87-89 on the upper edge. I think 90 is entirely possible, but still a bit of a reach. I think they are a great bet to reach the 84/85 win mark set by Vegas. It's really going to be a roller coaster down the stretch. It's possible 85 could still win it, although it's more probable they will need 90+ for the division as well as the wild card.

 

If they remain a top 3 run prevention team, and improve upon their 8th place run scoring standing (9th in OPS, 10th in OBP), I think a 92/93 win season isn't out of the question. But I just don't see 95 as a possibility, given their early struggles. They are bound to have another setback or two.

 

Replace one of their black hole positions with an above average producer and it might be enough to push them into the 6th or 7th best run scoring team in the NL, and grab the NL Central crown.

[David]

Updated with today's result

[brinoch]

My early season prognostication had 87-89 on the upper edge. I think 90 is entirely possible, but still a bit of a reach. I think they are a great bet to reach the 84/85 win mark set by Vegas. It's really going to be a roller coaster down the stretch. It's possible 85 could still win it, although it's more probable they will need 90+ for the division as well as the wild card.

 

If they remain a top 3 run prevention team, and improve upon their 8th place run scoring standing (9th in OPS, 10th in OBP), I think a 92/93 win season isn't out of the question. But I just don't see 95 as a possibility, given their early struggles. They are bound to have another setback or two.

 

Replace one of their black hole positions with an above average producer and it might be enough to push them into the 6th or 7th best run scoring team in the NL, and grab the NL Central crown.

 

I think the starting pitching is likely to regress a bit, though I suspect the bullpen will get a bit better with the addition of Wood and the return of Dempster. I'm very worried about Marquis and Marshall.

 

To my mind, the Cubs need an upgrade in the offense. I don't see anything on the horizon for SS or C and if they aren't going to play Murton, they might as well make a deal for an CF/RF. The guys who might be available and who are worth it are guys like Adam Dunn (.908 OPS), Ken Griffey, Jr. (.954 OPS), Torii Hunter (.881 OPS), and Eric Byrnes (.860 OPS).

[David]

Yea, a Griffey (or Dunn) deal would hit the spot.

 

Soriano

Theriot/Cedeno

Lee

Aramis

Griffey

DeRosa

Pie

Kendall

 

 

Not that bad.

[TruffleShuffle]

Yea, a Griffey (or Dunn) deal would hit the spot.

 

Soriano

Theriot/Cedeno

Lee

Aramis

Griffey

DeRosa

Pie

Kendall

 

 

Not that bad.

 

that'll be the lineup when the day after they trade for griffey; the next day you can take him out and put floyd/ward in there after griffey blows out his knee or shreds his hammy three innings into his cub debut.

[David]

that'll be the lineup when the day after they trade for griffey; the next day you can take him out and put floyd/ward in there after griffey blows out his knee or shreds his hammy three innings into his cub debut.

 

Hey, now.

 

That negative crap doesn't happen to us anymore. Haven't you been paying attention? [-X

[David]

Updated

[NCCubFan]

Updated

I think it's coming pretty close to time you can remove the question mark from doable for 90 wins.

[David]

Updated

I think it's coming pretty close to time you can remove the question mark from doable for 90 wins.

 

I think you're right.

[third eye]

Updated

I think it's coming pretty close to time you can remove the question mark from doable for 90 wins.

 

I think you're right.

 

If a trade for Griffey or Dunn is in the works, you might have to move the "Doable?" to the 95 win mark. Though, I'm pretty sure I said something similar after the Nomar and Mcgriff trades. *crosses fingers, knocks on wood*

[Ender]

Updated

I think it's coming pretty close to time you can remove the question mark from doable for 90 wins.

 

I think you're right.

 

Two weeks after every ball stops bouncing the cubs way is when you remove the question mark. Most teams that go on a month long hot streak follow it up with a week or two of blech, the Mets did, the Brewers did, the Braves did, the Red Sox did. After that week or two you get the real picture of the teams W/L record.

[hawkcub]

Maybe the Cubs Bleh was the first 2 month of the season.