Jones to get more chances, Pie losing out

[NewUserName]

Jacque Jones posted an .886 OPS v. RHP in 2006 and has a career .825 OPS v. RHP. That's a considerable asset if it's coming from your centerfielder. Indeed, only 3 qualifying MLB center-fielders have an OPS over .886 (Pence, Hunter, and Granderson) and only four more are between .825 and .886 (Rowand, Ichiro, Sizemore, and Suzuki). Twenty MLB center-fielders are below .825, including Beltran, Lofton, Mathews, Jr., Hall, Dejesus, Vernon Wells, Cameron, Church, Winn, Crisp, Andruw Jones, Chris Young, and Damon.

 

Jones obviously has had a terrible year to date. And he's not a reasonable option in a corner spot. But to describe Jones as "known quantity of suck" when he's being contemplated as this team's CF is both disingenuous and wrong. Obviously, he should never ever start against LHP, but he's more than a credible option in CF against RHP.

 

 

Wow you can use past performance to get Jacque Jones in the lineup but past performance wasnt good enough for Matt Murton.

 

I actually agree with you to a point. It is that since Jones will not be traded unless the Cubs eat a good portion of the salary, I think it would be a worthwhile gamble to start playing him against RHers. He will be a better hitter than Pagan. If he produces than I would trade him the minute you can not have to pay over half of his remaining salary. If he doesnt than just bite the bullet and either DFA him or trade him for whatever meaningless prospect you can get.

 

Also it is one thing to say that Jones had a higher OPS than all those players currently have. You didnt figure in defense in one of the 3 most important defensive positions.

[anabiono]

too bad billy beane doesn't want him

[CubColtPacer]

Just to add this note to the thread that I saw this morning:

 

The Padres, in talks with the Cubs last month, asked about center fielder Felix Pie, a sign that the Padres aren't certain they will re-sign Mike Cameron, who is eligible for free agency in November. The Cubs made it known that Pie is as untouchable as it gets.

 

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20070707-9999-1s7padnotes.html

[Warren Brusstar]

Jacque Jones posted an .886 OPS v. RHP in 2006 and has a career .825 OPS v. RHP. That's a considerable asset if it's coming from your centerfielder. Indeed, only 3 qualifying MLB center-fielders have an OPS over .886 (Pence, Hunter, and Granderson) and only four more are between .825 and .886 (Rowand, Ichiro, Sizemore, and Suzuki). Twenty MLB center-fielders are below .825, including Beltran, Lofton, Mathews, Jr., Hall, Dejesus, Vernon Wells, Cameron, Church, Winn, Crisp, Andruw Jones, Chris Young, and Damon.

 

Jones obviously has had a terrible year to date. And he's not a reasonable option in a corner spot. But to describe Jones as "known quantity of suck" when he's being contemplated as this team's CF is both disingenuous and wrong. Obviously, he should never ever start against LHP, but he's more than a credible option in CF against RHP.

 

 

Wow you can use past performance to get Jacque Jones in the lineup but past performance wasnt good enough for Matt Murton.

 

I actually agree with you to a point. It is that since Jones will not be traded unless the Cubs eat a good portion of the salary, I think it would be a worthwhile gamble to start playing him against RHers. He will be a better hitter than Pagan. If he produces than I would trade him the minute you can not have to pay over half of his remaining salary. If he doesnt than just bite the bullet and either DFA him or trade him for whatever meaningless prospect you can get.

 

Also it is one thing to say that Jones had a higher OPS than all those players currently have. You didnt figure in defense in one of the 3 most important defensive positions.

 

1. By both Fielding Runs above Replacement and Rate, Jones is an above average defensive center-fielder, both this year and over the course of his career.

 

2. Where did I ever say that past performance should be ignored as to Murton? I've said no such thing. In any event, even if we assume that Jones and Murton are equally like to post an .850 OPS v. RHP (and past performace says that Jones is a better hitter v. RHP than Murton is), there's a substantial difference between a CF that posts an .850 OPS and a corner outfielder that posts an .850 OPS. (And my original post acknowledges that --- Jones is a credible option in CF, but should not be considered in a corner)

 

3. That's not to say that signing Jones or Floyd was a good idea in the first place.

[anabiono]

oh thank you god

 

THANK YOU GOD!!!!!!

 

hey...i have a question for you guys...

 

i have only been to chicago once, when i was 10...i drove past wrigley field...

 

well, i was invited to go to chicago in early august to see pearl jam at lollapallooza and then to see the cubs and mets at wrigley...however, last week my car started acting up, and yesterday i had to shell out 1100 dollars for that crap...so, long story short...i can't go now...

 

BUT, i want my friend to bring me back something from wrigley...

 

what would be a good thing to get?

 

I was thinking of getting a PIE shirt...not a jersey...but a shirt...but...i don't want to get a pie shirt if he is going to be traded...or never given a bloody chance...but...i don't know...

 

besides that, since you guys have been all around the friendly confines...what should i be thinking about him bringing back for me?

 

thanks

[CubinNY]

When Pie gets sent back down and if Murton doesn't get sent up, I'll wager better OPS from AAA than MLB in the outfield.

[anabiono]

soriano can only do so much you know

 

 

:lol:

[Danny82]

Do these guys realize that hitters don't come out of the gate blazing from the minors? There is an adjustment period (which can be somewhat lengthy).

Aye. They should talk to Alex Gordon.

 

And Hunter Pence. And Ryan Braun. And Mike Fontenot. And Reggie Wiltis. And Josh Hamilton. And Troy Tulowitzki....

[Danny82]

To sit him for Jones and/or Pagan is just stupid.

It's certainly not stupid to sit Pie for Pagan against lefties.

[Tracer Bullet]

Jacque Jones posted an .886 OPS v. RHP in 2006 and has a career .825 OPS v. RHP. That's a considerable asset if it's coming from your centerfielder. Indeed, only 3 qualifying MLB center-fielders have an OPS over .886 (Pence, Hunter, and Granderson) and only four more are between .825 and .886 (Rowand, Ichiro, Sizemore, and Suzuki). Twenty MLB center-fielders are below .825, including Beltran, Lofton, Mathews, Jr., Hall, Dejesus, Vernon Wells, Cameron, Church, Winn, Crisp, Andruw Jones, Chris Young, and Damon.

 

Jones obviously has had a terrible year to date. And he's not a reasonable option in a corner spot. But to describe Jones as "known quantity of suck" when he's being contemplated as this team's CF is both disingenuous and wrong. Obviously, he should never ever start against LHP, but he's more than a credible option in CF against RHP.

 

Jones's career #s against RHP are better than average (he had 1 great year and a really good year last year) - I'll give you that. That said, it's not really fair to compare all those guys' current year performances to Jones's career (which includes his peak, which he is clearly past) and on top of that, taking out all his ABs against LHP. Are you really telling me you'd rather have Jones, or Jones in a platoon with Pagan, over any of the guys you listed above? Other than Crisp, who would probably struggle to catch a ball that he himself tossed into the air, I'd take all of those players over Jones (and I'd probably even take Crisp).

 

Jones is not a good player. He's had some good years against RHP in the past (he's also been quite bad against all pitchers in some years, not just this year). In '05 he had a .814 OPS against RHP (.775 in '04; .834 in '03). Given that he's started terribly this year, are we thinking it's more likely that he'll suddenly regain the .886 OPS form or closer to the .775 OPS form?

 

Yes, if you could guarantee, or even if it were a safe bet that Jones would put up an .825-ish OPS against RHP in CF this year (though let's be honest, JJ's a terrible CF), I'd say JJ in a platoon would probably be our best option. But I'm not convinced you're going to get anywhere near an .825 OPS out of Jones this year, against any pitchers. 185 ABs isn't a great sample size, but you're asking for a 200-point jump in OPS in the 2nd half. I don't think my characterization was disingenuous or wrong.

[Danny82]

The games played by Jones so far in those 185 at bats are a "sunk cost" so to speak. We would just need him to hit in the 825 range for the rest of the season, not hit high enough to bring his season average to that level (although that would be nice), for him to help the team. It's what he can do for the team from here on out that matters, wouldn't you agree?

[Tracer Bullet]

To sit him for Jones and/or Pagan is just stupid.

It's certainly not stupid to sit Pie for Pagan against lefties.

 

Really?

 

Pagan has a .742 OPS against LHP this year, right? and .596 against LHP last year, right? Pie may not match those #s, but frankly I don't care. In 50 ABs, Pagan has a .281 OBP against LHP. Whatever Pie's #s are, the difference between them and Pagan's #s is less significant than getting our best position prospect regular ABs. I don't want Pie to be in a platoon, I want him to play every day and see all pitchers and learn to hit them. If Lou isn't prepared to do that, we need to send him to AAA (which is probably dumb b/c our CFs are so bad, that we might as well let Pie learn at this level and take advantage of his great defense).

 

So, to reiterate, playing Jones or Pagan over Pie is just stupid.

[Danny82]

Hmmm...I misread Pagan's splits. For some reason, I thought Pagan was better from the right side than from the left.

 

That said, Pie's OPS against lefties is .277. I repeat. 277!!!! Not OBP, OPS.

 

I think it's safe to say that you are underselling the difference.

 

I think Pie should be starting against righties, for sure, but I think it's quite silly to say it's stupid to sit him against lefties.

Edited July 7, 2007 by Danny82

[Tracer Bullet]

The games played by Jones so far in those 185 at bats are a "sunk cost" so to speak. We would just need him to hit in the 825 range for the rest of the season, not hit high enough to bring his season average to that level (although that would be nice), for him to help the team. It's what he can do for the team from here on out that matters, wouldn't you agree?

 

If my econ memory serves, I'm not sure the concept of "sunk cost" really applies. But I get your point.

 

But I didn't say JJ needed to raise his OPS for the year up to .825, I said he'd have to play at an OPS level 200 points higher than his current OPS against RHP (roughly .634). To raise his OPS for the year up to his career average, he'd have to play about 400 OPS points higher than he's currently playing. Possible, but certainly not likely (or even reasonable to expect).

[Tracer Bullet]

Hmmm...I misread Pagan's splits. For some reason, I thought Pagan was better from the right side than from the left.

 

Nope - pretty much sucks against everyone.

[Danny82]

Hmmm...I misread Pagan's splits. For some reason, I thought Pagan was better from the right side than from the left.

 

Nope - pretty much sucks against everyone.

 

I edited my post to include how awful Pie is against lefties in the discussion. FYI.

[frostwyrm]

To sit him for Jones and/or Pagan is just stupid.

It's certainly not stupid to sit Pie for Pagan against lefties.

 

Really?

 

Pagan has a .742 OPS against LHP this year, right? and .596 against LHP last year, right? Pie may not match those #s, but frankly I don't care. In 50 ABs, Pagan has a .281 OBP against LHP. Whatever Pie's #s are, the difference between them and Pagan's #s is less significant than getting our best position prospect regular ABs. I don't want Pie to be in a platoon, I want him to play every day and see all pitchers and learn to hit them. If Lou isn't prepared to do that, we need to send him to AAA (which is probably dumb b/c our CFs are so bad, that we might as well let Pie learn at this level and take advantage of his great defense).

 

So, to reiterate, playing Jones or Pagan over Pie is just stupid.

 

Pagan is the option that's really stupid. You could make a case that Jones has to play to boost his trade value but Pagan is just a low-ceiling prospect with no trade value. Having Pie lose starts to Pagan is indefensible.

[Danny82]

To sit him for Jones and/or Pagan is just stupid.

It's certainly not stupid to sit Pie for Pagan against lefties.

 

Really?

 

Pagan has a .742 OPS against LHP this year, right? and .596 against LHP last year, right? Pie may not match those #s, but frankly I don't care. In 50 ABs, Pagan has a .281 OBP against LHP. Whatever Pie's #s are, the difference between them and Pagan's #s is less significant than getting our best position prospect regular ABs. I don't want Pie to be in a platoon, I want him to play every day and see all pitchers and learn to hit them. If Lou isn't prepared to do that, we need to send him to AAA (which is probably dumb b/c our CFs are so bad, that we might as well let Pie learn at this level and take advantage of his great defense).

 

So, to reiterate, playing Jones or Pagan over Pie is just stupid.

 

Pagan is the option that's really stupid. You could make a case that Jones has to play to boost his trade value but Pagan is just a low-ceiling prospect with no trade value. Having Pie lose starts to Pagan is indefensible.

I think I could make a pretty good case that sitting a player with a .277 OPS against lefties is good for the team. We are in a race for the playoffs after all.

[Tracer Bullet]

Hmmm...I misread Pagan's splits. For some reason, I thought Pagan was better from the right side than from the left.

 

Nope - pretty much sucks against everyone.

 

I edited my post to include how awful Pie is against lefties in the discussion. FYI.

 

Really b/c now if I want to dispute that, I have to jump back 2 posts. Why didn't you just make a new post w/ those stats?

[killthegoat06]

NOONONOOOOOOO

 

 

I guess Jones isn't going anywhere. :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

[Danny82]

Hmmm...I misread Pagan's splits. For some reason, I thought Pagan was better from the right side than from the left.

 

Nope - pretty much sucks against everyone.

 

I edited my post to include how awful Pie is against lefties in the discussion. FYI.

 

Really b/c now if I want to dispute that, I have to jump back 2 posts. Why didn't you just make a new post w/ those stats?

 

Why do you care? Seriously. I had already made the edit by the time I saw your reply. Big deal. I was telling you out of courtesy.

[Soul]

they sure stuck to their guns on the whole "pie is here and here to stay, he's our everyday centerfielder"... how long did that last, like 2 weeks?

 

Didn't take me long to learn that most of what Lou says is complete BS.

 

How so? He was the everyday centerfielder. Then he started to suck terribly. You'd rather Lou play Dusty and keep underperformers in the lineup everyday just because he made some statement weeks ago? Everything is contingent on performance, period. You suck, you sit.

 

Lou's been more consistent on this than just about any manager I've ever seen on the North Side. Eyre, Jones, Pie, Izzy.....all have grabbed bench and hard because they weren't cutting it.

 

I'm so tired of this argument. Lou's been around long enough that he should know that all players, regardless of quality, go through bad stretches. You can't bench every player if he hits a slump. That's stupid.

 

Pie's not in a slump, he's just not good enough yet. There's a difference, in his case.

 

And I couldn't care less how 'tired' you get of an argument.

Edited July 7, 2007 by Soul

[Tracer Bullet]

To sit him for Jones and/or Pagan is just stupid.

It's certainly not stupid to sit Pie for Pagan against lefties.

 

Really?

 

Pagan has a .742 OPS against LHP this year, right? and .596 against LHP last year, right? Pie may not match those #s, but frankly I don't care. In 50 ABs, Pagan has a .281 OBP against LHP. Whatever Pie's #s are, the difference between them and Pagan's #s is less significant than getting our best position prospect regular ABs. I don't want Pie to be in a platoon, I want him to play every day and see all pitchers and learn to hit them. If Lou isn't prepared to do that, we need to send him to AAA (which is probably dumb b/c our CFs are so bad, that we might as well let Pie learn at this level and take advantage of his great defense).

 

So, to reiterate, playing Jones or Pagan over Pie is just stupid.

 

Pagan is the option that's really stupid. You could make a case that Jones has to play to boost his trade value but Pagan is just a low-ceiling prospect with no trade value. Having Pie lose starts to Pagan is indefensible.

I think I could make a pretty good case that sitting a player with a .277 OPS against lefties is good for the team. We are in a race for the playoffs after all.

 

Really? B/c it's 32 ABs, so I'd like to hear this "good case" you're going to build for sitting our #1 prospect, who is 22, for a non-prospect like Pagan, who hits LHP terribly. You realize if Pie goes 3/4 with 3 singles against a LHP in his next game, his OPS jumps like 150 points? Maybe Pie can't hit LHP and never has been able to in his career (I don't know what his MiLB splits are), but again - you're not replacing him with a great hitter. It's hard to say what the difference b/t Pagan and Pie is against LHP b/c you don't really have enough of a sample at the ML level to know how good Pie is. But again, if the choice is Pie against all pitchers, learning to hit, and getting regular ABs, or sitting him in favor of crap like Pagan, he should play every day. I don't really think Pie is going to OPS .277 against LHP if he faced them regularly, so whatever the difference is between Pagan and Pie, the 3 ABs they're going to get at the bottom of the order isn't going to make a lot of difference in our playoff chase.

 

But please, make your "good case" - I'm all ears.

Edited July 7, 2007 by yanrslatr

[Yestheydo]

The games played by Jones so far in those 185 at bats are a "sunk cost" so to speak. We would just need him to hit in the 825 range for the rest of the season, not hit high enough to bring his season average to that level (although that would be nice), for him to help the team. It's what he can do for the team from here on out that matters, wouldn't you agree?

 

They're not going to agree, their minds are made up. Jacque Jones bad. Period. Bad in Minnesota. Bad when he signed. Bad last year. (Even though he was pretty good, he will always be bad bad bad). Very bad this year. He'll be bad til the end of time, no matter what, forever and ever amen. It is by definition impossible for Jacque Jones to ever do anything good. Wouldn't you agree? =;

[Tracer Bullet]

Hmmm...I misread Pagan's splits. For some reason, I thought Pagan was better from the right side than from the left.

 

Nope - pretty much sucks against everyone.

 

I edited my post to include how awful Pie is against lefties in the discussion. FYI.

 

Really b/c now if I want to dispute that, I have to jump back 2 posts. Why didn't you just make a new post w/ those stats?

 

Why do you care? Seriously. I had already made the edit by the time I saw your reply. Big deal. I was telling you out of courtesy.

 

b/c if you're having a discussion/argument, it's annoying to go back to edited posts rather than have the other side reply with a new post. Not a big deal.