Listening to the CWS announcers discuss win probability is

[Mephistopheles]

hilarious for people who actually know how it's formulated. These guys can't be more ignorant. I can hope they expand the service to MLB games with run expectancy and run frequency as well.

[UK1679666180]

I don't have a complete grasp of the stat, but if it is what I assume it to be....

 

I probably wouldn't value it much, but since I'm not 100% of the meaning of the stat, I'm indifferent to it.

 

I would like to see greater play by play data in all baseball games.

[Mephistopheles]

From a saber POV there's not much use to WPA. For in game finite managing it's fairly useful. Basically it's just saying if all the teams are average given this situation team X will win this percentage of time. Because it uses all the data its making the average team assumption. Of course this is completely worthless. When you have say 34% chance to win with a runner on second in the 8th with Bonds up. The system says not to walk him. Bonds =/= average.

 

Of course this can all be adjusted for in the computer, and they've done it.

[UK1679666180]

From a saber POV there's not much use to WPA. For in game finite managing it's fairly useful. Basically it's just saying if all the teams are average given this situation team X will win this percentage of time. Because it uses all the data its making the average team assumption. Of course this is completely worthless. When you have say 34% chance to win with a runner on second in the 8th with Bonds up. The system says not to walk him. Bonds =/= average.

 

Of course this can all be adjusted for in the computer, and they've done it.

 

That's what I assumed as far as leveling the playing field which takes away from the stat as far as applying to an individual game.

 

Everyone knows that if Oregon St. is up 6-1 in the 3rd against Coppin St., that's prob. higher than the 92% than ESPN flashed on the screen and much less if the roles were reversed.

 

I'd love to know what that ASU little lefty's production has been with two strikes on RH'ed batters, see how effective that 60 changeup has been. He's been knocked around tonight though.

[Mephistopheles]

im not watching, is it ike davis?

[UK1679666180]

im not watching, is it ike davis?

 

Flores started and gave up 2 in the 1st and was pulled for Satow. They don't get much smaller than Satow and not much better w/the change either.

[Guest]

im not watching, is it ike davis?

 

Flores started and gave up 2 in the 1st and was pulled for Satow. They don't get much smaller than Satow and not much better w/the change either.

 

Satow's change is impressive, it pissed me off when he was fooling the UCLA hitters a few months ago with all that soft stuff.

[UK1679666180]

im not watching, is it ike davis?

 

Flores started and gave up 2 in the 1st and was pulled for Satow. They don't get much smaller than Satow and not much better w/the change either.

 

Satow's change is impressive, it pissed me off when he was fooling the UCLA hitters a few months ago with all that soft stuff.

 

He'll probably have an interesting trek thru the minors like Mil's Demaria (except LH'ed).

[Coach C]

Here's the Brewers win probability, when they're trailing 5-4, bases are loaded, no outs.

 

75%

 

Here's the Cubs win probability, when they're trailing 5-3, bases are loaded, no outs.

 

25%

 

Really, it's not that hard to figure out the win probabilites. :D

[sunnydoo]

I don't have a complete grasp of the stat, but if it is what I assume it to be....

 

I probably wouldn't value it much, but since I'm not 100% of the meaning of the stat, I'm indifferent to it.

 

I would like to see greater play by play data in all baseball games.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-one-about-win-probability/

 

and about the play by play, not only has MLB stepped up to the plate to embrace technology with pbp they are boldly going beyond recording speeds for almost all changes of the ball, measuring pitching and swings by degree, as well as opening all this info to the public. Some of it will surely be used by the video game people, but its still cool to think about that which we have not yet developed in terms of formula.

 

Whereas today we may be impressed by a 98 MPH fastball, we may find out later on that the correct arm release angle would be 9 degrees (just as an example). I like all of this b/c it should help prove one of my theories that the recent spate of arm injuries isnt necessarily overuse or incorrect mechanics, but the lowering of the mound to produce more runs for hitters. Think baseball should definitely jack them back up a couple of feet.

[NCCubFan]

Before reading this thread I didn't know if CWS meant College World Series or Chicago White Sox. :D

[erik316wttn]

What was our win prob before it all went to hell in Game 6?

[snoodmonger]

What was our win prob before it all went to hell in Game 6?

 

do you really want to know? I sure as hell don't.

[pitchcs]

I think win probabilities are really stupid.

 

I don't have a good reason for thinking that other than the fact that baseball is a game and it's never over till the last out. Why even mention the 'odds' of winning? So when a team doesn't you can say "Oh my God, they had a 65% chance of winning and blew it!"

 

Dumb.

[Mephistopheles]

I think win probabilities are really stupid.

 

I don't have a good reason for thinking that other than the fact that baseball is a game and it's never over till the last out. Why even mention the 'odds' of winning? So when a team doesn't you can say "Oh my God, they had a 65% chance of winning and blew it!"

 

Dumb.

 

lol....i seriously hoping that was an attempt of trying to be funny and sarcastic.

[pitchcs]

I think win probabilities are really stupid.

 

I don't have a good reason for thinking that other than the fact that baseball is a game and it's never over till the last out. Why even mention the 'odds' of winning? So when a team doesn't you can say "Oh my God, they had a 65% chance of winning and blew it!"

 

Dumb.

 

lol....i seriously hoping that was an attempt of trying to be funny and sarcastic.

 

Umm, no....win probabilities are dumb.

[shnsajax]

I personally blame the WSOP for this while the game is going on.

[Chocolate Milk]

Listening to the CWS announcers discuss win probability is

 

boring?

[sethuel1]

I think win probabilities are really stupid.

 

I don't have a good reason for thinking that other than the fact that baseball is a game and it's never over till the last out. Why even mention the 'odds' of winning? So when a team doesn't you can say "Oh my God, they had a 65% chance of winning and blew it!"

 

Dumb.

 

lol....i seriously hoping that was an attempt of trying to be funny and sarcastic.

 

Umm, no....win probabilities are dumb.

also math