SORIANO HAS ARRIVED!

[CubColtPacer]

For those who want Soriano moved, the other big question becomes-who does the team bat leadoff?

Theriot only has a .330 OBP overall, and since May 3rd has put up a line of .228/.296/.307 (114 AB's)-that's certainly not a player you want at the top of the order.

Murton would be an ok option-he's putting up a .261/.341/.348 line. He's only going to play half the time though anyway, especially when he's still 100 points in OPS behind Floyd.

Floyd would be a decent option as well-he's put up a .306/.364/.423 line. The same thing applies though-he's only going to play half the time, and who knows if that OBP/SLG combo is going to stay the way it is, or if it is going to start to shift towards SLG as the year goes along.

DeRosa and Pie are also options, but Pie is better served where he is right now (taking some of the pressure away) and DeRosa's OBP is falling.

 

Even if Soriano's numbers don't drop while moving him down in the order (which is doubtful, considering that he's a person who relies on comfort-look at his change both in leadoff and when Pie is on the team, and also his better numbers when he moved back to LF, along with not wanting to be an outfielder last year and then declaring that he doesn't want to be an infielder anymore now that he's used to outfield now), even if that's the case, the loss of production that the Cubs will have with losing at-bats by Soriano and by an inferior hitter taking more at-bats will counteract any more runs driven in by him in a lower spot.

 

There simply is not much to gain and too much to lose by moving him. At best, you get a balanced effect, and at worst, Soriano's production drops and its a disaster. Plus, the Cubs promised him he would bat leadoff, and they should stick to that promise unless there's a clear reason why they would be better moving him. Here, there's not.

 

Given how far (and quickly) Theriot has fallen, I'd hit him 7th or 8th and let Murton lead off. He's shown the ability to get on base at a .350-.360 clip, which is solid. All those concerned with his lack of power should have those concerns eased b/c he'd be hitting 1st, where power is less important. And Murton should be starting every day in RF anyway.

 

Actually, I'd start Murton every day in LF and put Soriano in RF, but that's a discussion for a different day. No telling what effect a move to RF and out of the top spot would have on our $136m egg-shelled-psyche star.

 

BTW - how does Soriano not wanting to move to the OF last year, then putting up career best #s, fit with your suggestion that his performance hinges on comfort? If his comfort dictated his offensive output, would he really have started last season with a .921 OPS in April and .977 in May?

 

I don't know how to explain that exactly other than to say that he adjusted a lot better to being an OF than to moving down in the order. That's why he insisted on being a leadoff hitter, and he insisted on being an OF when he signed. He may have been reluctant to go to the OF originally (probably because it was something he had never done before), but he was on board with it quickly when he experienced it. He spent a full season at both the #3 and #5 spots in the order-so the chance of him changing his mind after he got to be in those spots is already gone.

 

As far as Murton playing everday, the loss of production that the team is going to get by playing him over Floyd everyday (at least right now while Floyd has been much better than him) would make it a lateral move overall.

[cubfan1955]

Last I checked they are 27-33 and 5-5 in their last 10 games. If you want to call that winning fine. I don't.

 

They're 5-2 in the past week, and playing better than they've played in a long time. Soriano/ Pie are both thriving right where they are. But by all means let's screw with it just so people won't think we're stupid for batting a 40 homer guy at leadoff.

 

No thank you. Can we at least wait until we lose a few games in a row first? Just in case ?

So lets throw out the won/loss record for the whole year? If I remember correctly we got into this hole with Soriano mostly batting leadoff.

[Yestheydo]

Last I checked they are 27-33 and 5-5 in their last 10 games. If you want to call that winning fine. I don't.

 

They're 5-2 in the past week, and playing better than they've played in a long time. Soriano/ Pie are both thriving right where they are. But by all means let's screw with it just so people won't think we're stupid for batting a 40 homer guy at leadoff.

 

No thank you. Can we at least wait until we lose a few games in a row first? Just in case ?

So let throw out the won/loss record for the whole year. If I remember correctly we got into this hole with Soriano mostly batting leadoff.

 

And started to turn it around when he finally got what he wanted: Left field, leading off, with his friend Pie hitting behind him and playing next to him. Who knows if it will last? The only way to find out is by leaving them there, which Lou will, because he's not stupid enough to change something that's actually working for once.

[Exile on Waveland]

For those who want Soriano moved, the other big question becomes-who does the team bat leadoff?

Theriot only has a .330 OBP overall, and since May 3rd has put up a line of .228/.296/.307 (114 AB's)-that's certainly not a player you want at the top of the order.

Murton would be an ok option-he's putting up a .261/.341/.348 line. He's only going to play half the time though anyway, especially when he's still 100 points in OPS behind Floyd.

Floyd would be a decent option as well-he's put up a .306/.364/.423 line. The same thing applies though-he's only going to play half the time, and who knows if that OBP/SLG combo is going to stay the way it is, or if it is going to start to shift towards SLG as the year goes along.

DeRosa and Pie are also options, but Pie is better served where he is right now (taking some of the pressure away) and DeRosa's OBP is falling.

 

Even if Soriano's numbers don't drop while moving him down in the order (which is doubtful, considering that he's a person who relies on comfort-look at his change both in leadoff and when Pie is on the team, and also his better numbers when he moved back to LF, along with not wanting to be an outfielder last year and then declaring that he doesn't want to be an infielder anymore now that he's used to outfield now), even if that's the case, the loss of production that the Cubs will have with losing at-bats by Soriano and by an inferior hitter taking more at-bats will counteract any more runs driven in by him in a lower spot.

 

There simply is not much to gain and too much to lose by moving him. At best, you get a balanced effect, and at worst, Soriano's production drops and its a disaster. Plus, the Cubs promised him he would bat leadoff, and they should stick to that promise unless there's a clear reason why they would be better moving him. Here, there's not.

 

Given how far (and quickly) Theriot has fallen, I'd hit him 7th or 8th and let Murton lead off. He's shown the ability to get on base at a .350-.360 clip, which is solid. All those concerned with his lack of power should have those concerns eased b/c he'd be hitting 1st, where power is less important. And Murton should be starting every day in RF anyway.

 

Actually, I'd start Murton every day in LF and put Soriano in RF, but that's a discussion for a different day. No telling what effect a move to RF and out of the top spot would have on our $136m egg-shelled-psyche star.

 

BTW - how does Soriano not wanting to move to the OF last year, then putting up career best #s, fit with your suggestion that his performance hinges on comfort? If his comfort dictated his offensive output, would he really have started last season with a .921 OPS in April and .977 in May?

 

I don't know how to explain that exactly other than to say that he adjusted a lot better to being an OF than to moving down in the order. That's why he insisted on being a leadoff hitter, and he insisted on being an OF when he signed. He may have been reluctant to go to the OF originally (probably because it was something he had never done before), but he was on board with it quickly when he experienced it. He spent a full season at both the #3 and #5 spots in the order-so the chance of him changing his mind after he got to be in those spots is already gone.

 

As far as Murton playing everday, the loss of production that the team is going to get by playing him over Floyd everyday (at least right now while Floyd has been much better than him) would make it a lateral move overall.

 

Perhaps on the verge of being overly cynical, I'm guessing the reason Soriano was reluctant to move to OF was marketability. Soriano's production isn't an anomaly in the OF like it is as second. As an impending free agent, he was likely thinking about dollar signs. That no longer matters with his huge contract, and he now may enjoy LF more than 2B anyway (his production does seem tied to his spot in the order and/or his position in the field, for whatever reason).

[Yestheydo]

Perhaps on the verge of being overly cynical, I'm guessing the reason Soriano was reluctant to move to OF was marketability. Soriano's production isn't an anomaly in the OF like it is as second. As an impending free agent, he was likely thinking about dollar signs. That no longer matters with his huge contract, and he now may enjoy LF more than 2B anyway (his production does seem tied to his spot in the order and/or his position in the field, for whatever reason).

 

I've been thinking this would explain why he got off to such a great start and had such a great season last year. There's WAY less to think about in left.

[Sammy Sofa]

Is it a safe assumption for people to think that Soriano is going to have as many homers or XBH's if he moves to 4th or 5th in the lineup? I understand the appeal of wanting those big shots later on, but what about the numbers that seem to indicate he doesn't hit as well when not at the top? This is what I'm talking about when I'm confused as to which argument has more merit.

[TB_11]

OK, I've seen the arguments for and against Soirano in terms of whether or not he's been a better career hitter in the leadoff spot.

 

Which is right?

The right thing is to try to maximize your run scoring potential and gain victories over the opposition. I believe scoring more runs achieves this and I think the Cubs would score more runs with Soriano batting 5th than with JJ hitting there. (JJ should be on the bench or gone anyway but that's another thread.)

 

Even if that means Soriano losing out on PAs? In the NL, a player batting 5th would have 60-70 less PAs in a given year than a player batting 1st.

 

Yes and for the same reason that no team has their best hitter leading off (not that Soriano is our best hitter, but he's certainly hitting like it right now). You don't want your best hitter coming up on the heels of your 2 worst hitters (8th and P here). Same reason so many people were upset with Dusty for putting Corey, Neifi, etc in front of Lee in 05. You don't put a .500+ SLG guy right behind the worst hitters on your team. It's stupid. How many leadoff hitters in the history of the game were among the league-leaders in HRs and SLG. Soriano was in the top 5 and top 10, respectively last year. If he produces like that, you don't want to waste that power by hitting him after Izturis and the pitcher.

 

With ARam out, Soriano should hit 4th (just like he hit 3rd w/ Lee out). Even with ARam back, I'd hit Soriano 4th, but 5th would still be better than 1st. Let him hit with guys on base, as long as he can keep up this .900 OPS stuff.

 

Many would argue, and with sound backup, that the bolded statement is wrong.

 

One study took a look at the 2000 Blue Jays, which featured a lineup that had similar characteristics to the Cubs lineup, and had Shannon Stewart and his .319/.363/.518 line batting first. According to this study's results, batting your players in descending order of OBP or OPS looks to be the best option. I would imagine looking at an NL lineup that had a pitcher batting ninth would produce similar results, although to a lesser degree.

[Jon]

i'm pleasantly surprised, soriano has been very good so far.

 

though i wonder if he can sustain his .377 babip.

That's due to regress, but I've seen more outrageous BABIP and for longer (BP Upton).

I'm not sure "regress" is the right word, though. Crash might be more accurate. Even last year his BABIP was .302.

 

Soriano has never been a high BA guy. In fact, his BA last year was .277. His career high in 2002 was an even .300. Once his BABIP starts to drop, hopefully he'll become a little more patient. His IsoD is .027 lower than it was last year, which will need some improvement over the full season, and his IsoP .041 lower. The challenge for him will be to see if he can continue to put up good numbers when some of those balls start not to drop for hits.

 

 

Personally, I'm just hoping for a few good seasons out of Soriano. I don't think there's any way he lives up to his contract in any of the 8 seasons (when looking at the contract divided evenly across the seasons instead of the way it's backloaded right now), so I can only keep my fingers crossed that something good happens very soon with this team. Even with the possibilities of market inflation down the road, it doesn't look pretty.

 

The way he's hitting this year, he should have a higher BA he has put up historically. His LD% is 22.1% this year, which translates roughly to a BABIP of .340. Over the last three years he's put up LD% of 18.7%, 19.0%, and 19.6%. While his BABIP is due to regress, it shouldn't drop to just .300 if he keeps on hitting like he has.

He also had equally high (or higher) LD%s in '02 and '03 while with the Yankees, but his BABIP was never close to what it is now. He may very well be a different hitter now, but I don't see how he's going to be able to sustain it.

 

Also right now, he seems to have a very strange GB/FB thing going on along with his LD%

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/847_OF_season_full_9_20070609.png

 

Maybe he's becoming a different hitter than he has at any other point in his career, but I don't think that's likely.

[Tracer Bullet]

OK, I've seen the arguments for and against Soirano in terms of whether or not he's been a better career hitter in the leadoff spot.

 

Which is right?

The right thing is to try to maximize your run scoring potential and gain victories over the opposition. I believe scoring more runs achieves this and I think the Cubs would score more runs with Soriano batting 5th than with JJ hitting there. (JJ should be on the bench or gone anyway but that's another thread.)

 

Even if that means Soriano losing out on PAs? In the NL, a player batting 5th would have 60-70 less PAs in a given year than a player batting 1st.

 

Yes and for the same reason that no team has their best hitter leading off (not that Soriano is our best hitter, but he's certainly hitting like it right now). You don't want your best hitter coming up on the heels of your 2 worst hitters (8th and P here). Same reason so many people were upset with Dusty for putting Corey, Neifi, etc in front of Lee in 05. You don't put a .500+ SLG guy right behind the worst hitters on your team. It's stupid. How many leadoff hitters in the history of the game were among the league-leaders in HRs and SLG. Soriano was in the top 5 and top 10, respectively last year. If he produces like that, you don't want to waste that power by hitting him after Izturis and the pitcher.

 

With ARam out, Soriano should hit 4th (just like he hit 3rd w/ Lee out). Even with ARam back, I'd hit Soriano 4th, but 5th would still be better than 1st. Let him hit with guys on base, as long as he can keep up this .900 OPS stuff.

 

Many would argue, and with sound backup, that the bolded statement is wrong.

 

One study took a look at the 2000 Blue Jays, which featured a lineup that had similar characteristics to the Cubs lineup, and had Shannon Stewart and his .319/.363/.518 line batting first. According to this study's results, batting your players in descending order of OBP or OPS looks to be the best option. I would imagine looking at an NL lineup that had a pitcher batting ninth would produce similar results, although to a lesser degree.

 

I could fully support a lineup that put guys in order of descending OBP (though if you have 2 very similar OBPs, logic tells me the higher SLG goes second, but the kids at Harvard might be able to convince me otherwise). But Soriano will not finish the year leading the Cubs in OBP. If he repeats last year, hopefully he's no higher than 4th or 5th...and by golly, where would that put him in the lineup...

[cubfan1955]

Last I checked they are 27-33 and 5-5 in their last 10 games. If you want to call that winning fine. I don't.

 

They're 5-2 in the past week, and playing better than they've played in a long time. Soriano/ Pie are both thriving right where they are. But by all means let's screw with it just so people won't think we're stupid for batting a 40 homer guy at leadoff.

 

No thank you. Can we at least wait until we lose a few games in a row first? Just in case ?

So let throw out the won/loss record for the whole year. If I remember correctly we got into this hole with Soriano mostly batting leadoff.

 

And started to turn it around when he finally got what he wanted: Left field, leading off, with his friend Pie hitting behind him and playing next to him. Who knows if it will last? The only way to find out is by leaving them there, which Lou will, because he's not stupid enough to change something that's actually working for once.

They've turned nothing around. Don't let a mini streak of playing decently fool you. I do believe you are right that Lou will leave him in the leadoff spot. Not because he's not stupid enough to make the change though...rather because he's not smart enough to make the change.

[Sammy Sofa]

SORIANO HAS LEFT THE BUILDING!

[Lockes Eye Scar]

0-19 since his three HR game.

[sweetpeteman]

He needs a night off, but that lineup will really suck.

[soccer10k]

He needs a night off, but that lineup will really suck.

 

No Soriano and no Ramirez would be ugly.

[badnews]

Why do people keep complaining to move Soriano down in the lineup? Soriano IS NOT a middle of the order hitter.

 

First of all, he's a far better hitter in the leadoff spot than anywhere else in the lineup according to his career numbers.

 

His career numbers:

 

Bases empty - .863 OPS

Runners on - .799 OPS

RISP - .770

RISP/2 outs - .740

Bases loaded - .742

 

Why would ANYONE with ANY intelligence want a guy who folds "faster than Superman on laundry day" hitting in the middle of their lineup? Oh yeah, that sounds good to me! Let's whine about Lou being too dumb to make the move, nevermind the Rangers wasted years trying to make a middle of the order hitter out of Soriano and all they got was an .807 OPS stooge. In 2005, when he had 104 RBIs, he had an .887 OPS with the bases empty, and a .733 OPS with RISP. RISP and 2 outs? .597 OPS. That's who I want coming up in that situation, a guy with Cesar Izturis numbers!

 

So supporters of moving Soriano down in the lineup, be quiet, you have no case at all, you're only exposing your ignorance.

 

As for Soriano "showing up" well, he got 3 home runs off two horrid pitchers, now he's not doing anything, I still say he's a waste of money.

[cubfan1955]

Why do people keep complaining to move Soriano down in the lineup? Soriano IS NOT a middle of the order hitter.

 

First of all, he's a far better hitter in the leadoff spot than anywhere else in the lineup according to his career numbers.

 

His career numbers:

 

Bases empty - .863 OPS

Runners on - .799 OPS

RISP - .770

RISP/2 outs - .740

Bases loaded - .742

 

Why would ANYONE with ANY intelligence want a guy who folds "faster than Superman on laundry day" hitting in the middle of their lineup? Oh yeah, that sounds good to me! Let's whine about Lou being too dumb to make the move, nevermind the Rangers wasted years trying to make a middle of the order hitter out of Soriano and all they got was an .807 OPS stooge. In 2005, when he had 104 RBIs, he had an .887 OPS with the bases empty, and a .733 OPS with RISP. RISP and 2 outs? .597 OPS. That's who I want coming up in that situation, a guy with Cesar Izturis numbers!

 

So supporters of moving Soriano down in the lineup, be quiet, you have no case at all, you're only exposing your ignorance.

 

As for Soriano "showing up" well, he got 3 home runs off two horrid pitchers, now he's not doing anything, I still say he's a waste of money.

WOW! The Grand Master of baseball knowledge has spoken.

 

If you took the time to read everything posted in this thread you'll see where that myth was debunked. So stop showing your ignorance and hoping to see more of JJ batting with runners on base.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

WOW! The Grand Master of baseball knowledge has spoken.

 

If you took the time to read everything posted in this thread you'll see where that myth was debunked. So stop showing your ignorance and hoping to see more of JJ batting with runners on base.

 

That was far from "debunking a myth". Jon gave an alternative explanation for the way those splits broke down(career year in Washington, not very good in Texas, not enough ABs in other spots), but I think that ignores that his spot in the order could very likely be a causal factor in that. After 4 teams in 4 divisions in both leagues, I think it would be foolish to cast it aside altogether.

[jersey cubs fan]

WOW! The Grand Master of baseball knowledge has spoken.

 

If you took the time to read everything posted in this thread you'll see where that myth was debunked. So stop showing your ignorance and hoping to see more of JJ batting with runners on base.

 

That was far from "debunking a myth". Jon gave an alternative explanation for the way those splits broke down(career year in Washington, not very good in Texas, not enough ABs in other spots), but I think that ignores that his spot in the order could very likely be a causal factor in that. After 4 teams in 4 divisions in both leagues, I think it would be foolish to cast it aside altogether.

 

I think it's foolish to pay any attention to it. He's done better in different spots at different points in his career. He's not a leadoff hitter. But he's going to hit leadoff for the next few years until he loses a step and then toward the end of the contract he'll be a 5th hitter. So we might as well get used to it.

[badnews]

Debunked? That's pretty generous. It's a fact. The situational hitting numbers aren't small sample sizes; in fact, they're quite large. What more proof do you need? Soriano is a bad clutch hitter. Putting a guy who is a bad clutch hitter in the meat of your order where he's going to see the most men on base (and he does worse with men on base) is unquestionably foolish and ignorant. What part of this is difficult to understand? It's well established - he's not clutch, he "steps it down" with men on base.

 

And then to toss a fallacy in there like "Well, I guess you must want Jacque Jones in there!" No, that's not what it means. That's just a weak attempt to salvage a weak argument.

 

Forget about the smaller sample size for leadoff vs. #5, etc. The large situational sample size speaks for itself.

[cubfan1955]

Believe any foolishness you want. A hitter will hit given the opportunities.

[Careless]

Why do people keep complaining to move Soriano down in the lineup? Soriano IS NOT a middle of the order hitter.

 

First of all, he's a far better hitter in the leadoff spot than anywhere else in the lineup according to his career numbers.

 

His career numbers:

 

Bases empty - .863 OPS

Runners on - .799 OPS

RISP - .770

RISP/2 outs - .740

Bases loaded - .742

 

Why would ANYONE with ANY intelligence want a guy who folds "faster than Superman on laundry day" hitting in the middle of their lineup? Oh yeah, that sounds good to me! Let's whine about Lou being too dumb to make the move, nevermind the Rangers wasted years trying to make a middle of the order hitter out of Soriano and all they got was an .807 OPS stooge. In 2005, when he had 104 RBIs, he had an .887 OPS with the bases empty, and a .733 OPS with RISP. RISP and 2 outs? .597 OPS. That's who I want coming up in that situation, a guy with Cesar Izturis numbers!

 

So supporters of moving Soriano down in the lineup, be quiet, you have no case at all, you're only exposing your ignorance.

 

As for Soriano "showing up" well, he got 3 home runs off two horrid pitchers, now he's not doing anything, I still say he's a waste of money.

It's amusing because most of the "clutch doesn't exist" people agree with you that he should hit 1st based on his career numbers

(because I'm going to sleep, let me recap: sabr people have never, as far as I know, done a clutch pitching+clutch hittign study that factored both in at once. every time someone mentions clutch studies here it's hitting and ignores pitching entirely. maybe it's happened, but you'd never know it from reading posts on this board.

[badnews]

I've read some of those studies, and none of them ever address some simple facts, like some players, over their career, do better with the bases empty than with RISP, and some do worse. I think the studies I've seen have explored different facets of "clutch." But it's a fact. Some players improve more from their "standard" line with RISP, and some do worse. That is a fact; it is not debatable.

 

There are different facets. For example, you can be productive in Close and Late situations but still hit worse with RISP than with the bases empty.

 

So far this year, it works out much like the career stats say it should. Soriano is a .323 hitter with a .927 OPS leading off an inning, with none on and none out, he's a .333 hitter, .949 OPS hitter, none on, 1/2 out, .312 BA, .956 OPS hitter. With runners on base, he's a .250 hitter with a .707 OPS this year.

 

Forget about trying to make him something he's not already.

 

Look at Casey Blake's situational stats year by year. Look at his 2005, and marvel at possibly the worst clutch hitting year by any player, ever. Then tell me it's a myth.

[Mephistopheles]

I've read some of those studies, and none of them ever address some simple facts, like some players, over their career, do better with the bases empty than with RISP, and some do worse. I think the studies I've seen have explored different facets of "clutch." But it's a fact. Some players improve more from their "standard" line with RISP, and some do worse. That is a fact; it is not debatable.

 

So 10 posts into your NSBB career you want to be me, but unlike me you're completely wrong.

[badnews]

Well, with a refutation like that, how can I argue?

 

If you want to judge post counts instead of each post on its own merits, you can do so.

 

But what I stated is a fact. How is not? To argue against that would be to say that every player in baseball history has the same differentiation between their overall OPS, their bases empty OPS, and their runners on OPS. Which is clearly not the case.

 

I'm just curious, did you actually read my post, or did you just decide you didn't like the way I phrased it and decided to pick an argument? Because what I said was a fact is a fact, not an opinion - I'm not completely wrong about it, and there are examples to prove I'm not. All I have to prove is that not every player improves as much in a situation, say, runners on, to prove that I'm right, whereas you would have to improve in the situational stats that every player has the exact same variations, which you can't prove, because they don't.

[Mephistopheles]

i don't need to read it lol. of course some players do -- due to chance. you have no argument.