2007 Cubs Pick Discussion

[Brendan]

 

I've heard good things about his plate discipline.

 

It seems awful tough to judge plate discipline amongst HS hitters - even an area with immense talent like Los Angeles - because hitters can beat up on lesser pitchers and also are more likely to get intentionally walked.

 

I'd have preferred Wieters, Porcello or Parker but I certainly can't complain. It's a good pick at 3.

 

I think a lot of the people who think Vitters will bust are just saying that because of the Cubs poor development of position players and the fact the Cubs passed on Wieters. I hope Vitters can stick at 3B, his defense is the thing I'm most concerned about.

 

it seems to me that wieters high value is predicated on his remaining at catcher, which doesn't sound like a lock anyway.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think a lot of the people who think Vitters will bust are just saying that because of the Cubs poor development of position players and the fact the Cubs passed on Wieters.

 

And? That's the point. The Cubs don't develop hitters.

[jjgman21]

Using outstanding hitting tools at the plate, Vitters was named the Most Valuable Player of the Cape Cod All-Star Game last summer...Widely considered the best high school hitter available...Has a compact swing that will develop power down the road with strong ability to get the bat on the ball with consistency...Right-handed hitter who can handle any type of pitch like Vladimir Guerrero. Has amazing instincts and is very polished...Has the arm strength to play third in the big leagues, but will need to develop in the field. Could eventually land in the outfield if defensive skill at third doesn't progress..Brother Christian was drafted by Oakland in 2006.

 

This could be good or very bad.

 

That's a huge red flag for me. The guy isn't going to learn plate discipline with the Cubs, and he isn't going to handle those pitches against pros. If we have another 4:1 K:BB guy on our hands, he won't help at all.

 

FWIW Keith Law and espn.com has his plate discipline graded out higher than Dominquez, Moustakas and Heyward (although they were just raving about his discipline earlier).

 

in the Baseball Analysts article he lists his biggest influence on developing his baseball skills as his father, and talks also about his brother, who was an A's draft pick. if the fruit doesn't fall far from the tree, I have a feeling he has a good idea about the strikezone.

[Derwood]

i hear he has tremendous leaping ability

[Guest]

I think a lot of the people who think Vitters will bust are just saying that because of the Cubs poor development of position players and the fact the Cubs passed on Wieters.

 

And? That's the point. The Cubs don't develop hitters.

 

Don't see how Moustakas or Heyward or other bats would be more preferable then. Even Wieters would have to be developed somewhat.

 

And I just *don't* see the Magadan comparison. I think you're confusing Doolittle with Vitters, Vance.

[Bruce Miles]

From what I've been told by baseball people, "scouting" is more important than "development" in the scouting and development combo. In other words, you're not going to take a so-so prospect and "develop" him into something great because you have great "development" people. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing. Just passing along the gist of a recent coversation. Maybe it's one of those "duh" things.

[YearofDaCubs]

From what I've been told by baseball people, "scouting" is more important than "development" in the scouting and development combo. In other words, you're not going to take a so-so prospect and "develop" him into something great because you have great "development" people. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing. Just passing along the gist of a recent coversation. Maybe it's one of those "duh" things.

Bruce, what are your thoughts on this pick? Or what have you been hearing about Vitters?

[USSoccer]

From what I've been told by baseball people, "scouting" is more important than "development" in the scouting and development combo. In other words, you're not going to take a so-so prospect and "develop" him into something great because you have great "development" people. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing. Just passing along the gist of a recent coversation. Maybe it's one of those "duh" things.

 

Yeah, but if it was a Cubs "baseball person" telling you that, it might not mean as much, you know?

[Guest]

From what I've been told by baseball people, "scouting" is more important than "development" in the scouting and development combo. In other words, you're not going to take a so-so prospect and "develop" him into something great because you have great "development" people. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing. Just passing along the gist of a recent coversation. Maybe it's one of those "duh" things.

 

Yeah, but if it was a Cubs "baseball person" telling you that, it might not mean as much, you know?

 

On a really broad scale, you get a better player, even if you don't develop properly he's more likely to succeed than a worse player. You get a worse player but can get a lot out of him, it might not lead to the best results.

[jersey cubs fan]

From what I've been told by baseball people, "scouting" is more important than "development" in the scouting and development combo. In other words, you're not going to take a so-so prospect and "develop" him into something great because you have great "development" people. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing. Just passing along the gist of a recent coversation. Maybe it's one of those "duh" things.

 

I would think this is true. But on the other hand, you could take a good prospect and ruin him with improper development.

[cubfan]

This could turn into a "Which came first, the chicken or the egg argument" The Cubs should not draft position players high because they do not develop them well. The Cubs do not develop good position players because they do not draft them high. I know the Cubs have had some bad luck with a few position players they have drafted but they have been focusing on pitchers more. At some point it could become a self fulfilling prophecy. You have to trust your scouts and take the best player you can.

[jersey cubs fan]

This could turn into a "Which came first, the chicken or the egg argument" The Cubs should not draft position players high because they do not develop them well. The Cubs do not develop good position players because they do not draft them high. I know the Cubs have had some bad luck with a few position players they have drafted but they have been focusing on pitchers more. At some point it could become a self fulfilling prophecy. You have to trust your scouts and take the best player you can.

 

I don't believe you should completely ignore a category. Not all high school hitters are created equal. I'm fine with taking them, I just think if you take one early in the first the guy's got to be a superstud, with realistic star upside. Not Tim Wallach ability.

[1908]

A couple of comments about Vitters from today's BP draft chat.

 

Baseball Prospectus[/url]"]Kevin Goldstein (11:38:31 AM PST): Cubs just popped Josh Vitters -- and Rany isn't happy. I spoke to Rany this morning, and he wanted Vitters to the Royals, noting that he's nearly a full-year younger than Moustakas. Great pick.

 

BSmith (11:40:47 AM PST): Cubs fans around Chicago have been asking me why the Cubs would pass on Wieters, a future catcher, for Vitters. The answer I always give is to trust Tim Wilken, who has believed for a long time that Vitters has better future power than Wieters. Wilken has been right a lot of times, and even if Wieters has a little more value behind the plate, his cost and Vitters' offensive profile made Wilken's choice.

[Bruce Miles]

I've heard good things about Vitters. I was tipped off yesterday that they'd likely take him if he was there. So I went with him as the favorite in my Cubs Notes today. Wilken seemed to really like him.

[Guest]

48: C Josh Donaldson, Auburn:

 

Josh Donaldson, c (National rank: 74)

School: Auburn. Class: Jr.

B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 202. Birthdate: 12/8/85.

Scouting Report: After a prolific high school career in Mobile, Ala., where Donaldson played football and basketball and starred as a shortstop and pitcher, he has developed into a dependable, steady player for the Tigers. He played third base as a freshman in 2005, began catching as a sophomore and boosted his reputation with a strong showing in the Cape Cod League last summer. A right thumb injury limited his action behind the plate as a junior, but he had not missed a game dating back to his freshman season. He's a work in progress defensively, but shows passable catch-and-throw skills with a solid-average arm. He's a hitter first, and has relied on plus bat speed and an aggressive approach to pace Auburn in several offensive categories, including double-digit home runs in back to back years. His swing is unorthodox, and a hard front step that triggers his swing should be toned down to improve his timing and balance. He's susceptible to good breaking balls. But Donaldson can murder good fastballs, and did it with wood last summer when he hit .302 with 15 extra-base hits. He'll go off the board as early as the supplemental round and no later than the third round.

[Guest]

Donaldson really helped himself with a strong Cape Cod season last summer, but there are concerns about whether he'll be able to catch up to better velocities with the loop in his swing. He may improve with more experience as a full-time catcher, but his arm is below average and he does not profile as a premium catch-and-throw guy. Some see a switch to the infield -- he's played third in college -- but he may make for a good backup catcher who plays the game the right way.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

With Burgess and Harvey on the board, we take a scrub like Donaldson.

 

Read this...

 

Donaldson really helped himself with a strong Cape Cod season last summer, but there are concerns about whether he'll be able to catch up to better velocities with the loop in his swing. He may improve with more experience as a full-time catcher, but his arm is below average and he does not profile as a premium catch-and-throw guy. Some see a switch to the infield -- he's played third in college -- but he may make for a good backup catcher who plays the game the right way.

 

So with potential high ceiling guys like Harvey and Burgess, we take a guy who might make a good "back-up" catcher.

 

WTF is up with the Cubs! :evil:

[RichHillIsABeast]

I've heard good things about Vitters. I was tipped off yesterday that they'd likely take him if he was there. So I went with him as the favorite in my Cubs Notes today. Wilken seemed to really like him.

 

Any idea how big of a factor slot money was for our first round selection?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

More on Donaldson...

 

He has shown some ability to hit, but front-foot hitting causes loop in swing.

 

Donaldson's arm was below average, with less-than-stellar times to second base.

 

Great. He can't really hit and he's not great behind the plate, but wait....

 

Donaldson has excellent instincts and plays the game the right way.

 

Well, great. We drafted the David Eckstein of catchers.

[YearofDaCubs]

So needs work as a catcher and is aggressive? I don't know about this one.

[UK1679666180]

Donaldson is a first-rate defender at third base, but his profile plays better behind the plate and he began a successful conversion to catching a year ago, successfully completing the transition this year. He ranks as one of the nation’s elite college catchers and there is an outside chance he could slip into the back end of the first round. He established more of a comfort zone at his new position this spring, while polishing his receiving skills. By most accounts, he has a solid-average arm with pop times consistently under 2.0 seconds, but some scouts say his arm strength is below average and he makes up the for the deficiency with quick feet. His athleticism, offensive upside, work ethic and take-charge ability are all considered the strengths of his game. He has impressive bat speed and either led Auburn or was second in every key offensive category this spring—hitting (.348), home runs (10), RBIs (50) and on-base percentage (.448). While his speed is a non-factor at his new position, he runs well for a catcher and stole 17 bases in 20 attempts. More than raw speed, he has good base-running instincts—an aptitude that serves the rest of his game well.

[RichHillIsABeast]

With Burgess and Harvey on the board, we take a scrub like Donaldson.

 

Read this...

 

Donaldson really helped himself with a strong Cape Cod season last summer, but there are concerns about whether he'll be able to catch up to better velocities with the loop in his swing. He may improve with more experience as a full-time catcher, but his arm is below average and he does not profile as a premium catch-and-throw guy. Some see a switch to the infield -- he's played third in college -- but he may make for a good backup catcher who plays the game the right way.

 

So with potential high ceiling guys like Harvey and Burgess, we take a guy who might make a good "back-up" catcher.

 

WTF is up with the Cubs! :evil:

 

These types of "scouting reports" were unflattering towards Colvin last season. I also think money/signability is a huge factor this season for the Cubs. The Trib just isn't going to pony up and PO Selig, who has to approve the sale of the club.

[Jazz]

how cubbish would it be for vitters to flop, and this guy to become a major league starting 3B?

[RichHillIsABeast]

So needs work as a catcher and is aggressive? I don't know about this one.

 

.100 IsoD this season.

[RichHillIsABeast]

how cubbish would it be for vitters to flop, and this guy to become a major league starting 3B?

 

No, it would be Cubbish for both to flop. :lol: