2008 Commitment: 12 players/$81M

[HoopsCubs]

As we begin thinking about Cub trade scenarios and trade rumors at the deadline, we should all stay cognizant of the large payroll commitment the Cubs have in 2008.

 

Per my quick scan, they have 12 players under contract in 2008 for a whopping $81M. Those players are Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Lilly, Jones, Dempster, Marquis, Howry, Eyre, DeRosa, Blanco and Ohman.

 

That figure does not include pro-rated signing bonuses totalling in the neighborhood of $6M for many of those players. It also does not include up to $5M in potential payroll dedicated to 3 arbitration eligible guys: Prior, Cotts, Wuertz.

 

He is potentially looking at $92M committed to 15 players.

 

Along with the imminent sale, I think that hefty commitment will make it nearly impossible for Hendry to use his normal trading MO: taking on the contracts or arbitration eligible status lasting beyond the current season of productive players from smaller market teams. And if he can't do that, he will just not be able to trade for any good player at the deadline, who will be under Cub control beyond 2007. As for trading for imminent free agents (Hunter, Suzuki, Anduw Jones, Linebrink, etc...), who might be on the block, the Cubs probably don't have the farm system to compete with other teams in trading scenarios.

 

So, to repeat what we have all collectively said in several threads: his challenge at the deadline is to save money by dumping the likes of Jones, Howry, Eyre, DeRosa, Blanco and perhaps even Dempster. Even if he has to pick up two-thirds of those combined contract values, he could still save $9M in 2008 payroll, which will be huge for the coming offseason. Easier said than done, of course, but let's put on our thinking caps and figure this out.

 

Hoops

[RichHillIsABeast]

I'd get rid of Ohman if the right deal came along. We have a cheap replacement (Rapada) in the system.

[fromthestretch]

As we begin thinking about Cub trade scenarios and trade rumors at the deadline, we should all stay cognizant of the large payroll commitment the Cubs have in 2008.

 

Per my quick scan, they have 12 players under contract in 2008 for a whopping $81M. Those players are Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Lilly, Jones, Dempster, Marquis, Howry, Eyre, DeRosa, Blanco and Ohman.

 

That figure does not include pro-rated signing bonuses totalling in the neighborhood of $6M for many of those players. It also does not include up to $5M in potential payroll dedicated to 3 arbitration eligible guys: Prior, Cotts, Wuertz.

 

He is potentially looking at $92M committed to 15 players.

 

Along with the imminent sale, I think that hefty commitment will make it nearly impossible for Hendry to use his normal trading MO: taking on the contracts or arbitration eligible status lasting beyond the current season of productive players from smaller market teams. And if he can't do that, he will just not be able to trade for any good player at the deadline, who will be under Cub control beyond 2007. As for trading for imminent free agents (Hunter, Suzuki, Anduw Jones, Linebrink, etc...), who might be on the block, the Cubs probably don't have the farm system to compete with other teams in trading scenarios.

 

So, to repeat what we have all collectively said in several threads: his challenge at the deadline is to save money by dumping the likes of Jones, Howry, Eyre, DeRosa, Blanco and perhaps even Dempster. Even if he has to pick up two-thirds of those combined contract values, he could still save $9M in 2008 payroll, which will be huge for the coming offseason. Easier said than done, of course, but let's put on our thinking caps and figure this out.

 

Hoops

 

Don't forget that Floyd's option becomes guaranteed with 100 games started or 425 plate appearances this season.

[brinoch]

It probably wouldn't be all that tough to deal Dempster, frankly. Just look to a team with an injured/ineffective closer come late June. The only competition on the market is really Cordero -- and I'd be more wary of Cordero than Dempster.

 

I'd look to deal Howry and Eyre to whoever wants them for virtually whatever I can get. It probably wouldn't be impossible to trade Jones, one of them, and a prospect for another large contract player.

[frostwyrm]

As we begin thinking about Cub trade scenarios and trade rumors at the deadline, we should all stay cognizant of the large payroll commitment the Cubs have in 2008.

 

Per my quick scan, they have 12 players under contract in 2008 for a whopping $81M. Those players are Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Lilly, Jones, Dempster, Marquis, Howry, Eyre, DeRosa, Blanco and Ohman.

 

That figure does not include pro-rated signing bonuses totalling in the neighborhood of $6M for many of those players. It also does not include up to $5M in potential payroll dedicated to 3 arbitration eligible guys: Prior, Cotts, Wuertz.

 

He is potentially looking at $92M committed to 15 players.

 

Along with the imminent sale, I think that hefty commitment will make it nearly impossible for Hendry to use his normal trading MO: taking on the contracts or arbitration eligible status lasting beyond the current season of productive players from smaller market teams. And if he can't do that, he will just not be able to trade for any good player at the deadline, who will be under Cub control beyond 2007. As for trading for imminent free agents (Hunter, Suzuki, Anduw Jones, Linebrink, etc...), who might be on the block, the Cubs probably don't have the farm system to compete with other teams in trading scenarios.

 

So, to repeat what we have all collectively said in several threads: his challenge at the deadline is to save money by dumping the likes of Jones, Howry, Eyre, DeRosa, Blanco and perhaps even Dempster. Even if he has to pick up two-thirds of those combined contract values, he could still save $9M in 2008 payroll, which will be huge for the coming offseason. Easier said than done, of course, but let's put on our thinking caps and figure this out.

 

Hoops

 

Your post is depressing. Hendry dumps all the guys you listed, creating multiple holes in an already hole-filled roster, just to get $9M. To make a significant improvement Hendry would have to get some mighty good bang for those bucks, and Hendry is not known for that. And what of 2009? IMO that's when things get really ugly even if you assume no major health issues or declining skills from the people already signed. Eating contracts and paying people to play for other teams in 2008 is going to make getting ready for 2009 a bigger challenge than it already is.

[jersey cubs fan]

They've got to rid themselves of Jones, Howry and Eyre, and probably one of Marquis or Dempster. With guys like Theriot, Fontenot and Patterson, they could save some more by dumping DeRosa. Then spend your money on a couple studs to help the remaining core, and fill in with youth everywhere else (maybe spend a million or two on bullpen help).

 

And for god's sake don't even let Floyd come close to those qualifiers.

[brinoch]

As we begin thinking about Cub trade scenarios and trade rumors at the deadline, we should all stay cognizant of the large payroll commitment the Cubs have in 2008.

 

Per my quick scan, they have 12 players under contract in 2008 for a whopping $81M. Those players are Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Lilly, Jones, Dempster, Marquis, Howry, Eyre, DeRosa, Blanco and Ohman.

 

That figure does not include pro-rated signing bonuses totalling in the neighborhood of $6M for many of those players. It also does not include up to $5M in potential payroll dedicated to 3 arbitration eligible guys: Prior, Cotts, Wuertz.

 

He is potentially looking at $92M committed to 15 players.

 

Along with the imminent sale, I think that hefty commitment will make it nearly impossible for Hendry to use his normal trading MO: taking on the contracts or arbitration eligible status lasting beyond the current season of productive players from smaller market teams. And if he can't do that, he will just not be able to trade for any good player at the deadline, who will be under Cub control beyond 2007. As for trading for imminent free agents (Hunter, Suzuki, Anduw Jones, Linebrink, etc...), who might be on the block, the Cubs probably don't have the farm system to compete with other teams in trading scenarios.

 

So, to repeat what we have all collectively said in several threads: his challenge at the deadline is to save money by dumping the likes of Jones, Howry, Eyre, DeRosa, Blanco and perhaps even Dempster. Even if he has to pick up two-thirds of those combined contract values, he could still save $9M in 2008 payroll, which will be huge for the coming offseason. Easier said than done, of course, but let's put on our thinking caps and figure this out.

 

Hoops

 

Don't forget that Floyd's option becomes guaranteed with 100 games started or 425 plate appearances this season.

 

He's on pace for what, 330 AB's -- maybe 350 PA if he's lucky? He only has 110 PA right now, so I think we're safe on that score. 100 GS is another story... he's started 25 games by my count (I could be wrong) with 111 games left in the season. If he starts 68% of the games over Murton, or if there is an injury to Soriano or Murton, he has a very good chance to make that. As things stand now, he's started about 50% of games.

[jersey cubs fan]

He's on pace for what, 330 AB's -- maybe 350 PA if he's lucky? He only has 110 PA right now, so I think we're safe on that score. 100 GS is another story... he's started 25 games by my count (I could be wrong) with 111 games left in the season. If he starts 68% of the games over Murton, or if there is an injury to Soriano or Murton, he has a very good chance to make that. As things stand now, he's started about 50% of games.

 

He's on pace for 400 AB, so it wouldn't take much to get up to 450 PA. As you said, if there's an injury to Murton, Jones or Soriano, or if Lou suddenly decides he needs Floyd hitting 4th everyday, then it becomes a scary issue.

[brinoch]

They've got to rid themselves of Jones, Howry and Eyre, and probably one of Marquis or Dempster. With guys like Theriot, Fontenot and Patterson, they could save some more by dumping DeRosa. Then spend your money on a couple studs to help the remaining core, and fill in with youth everywhere else (maybe spend a million or two on bullpen help).

 

And for god's sake don't even let Floyd come close to those qualifiers.

 

Personally, I'd dump Izturis, Jones, Eyre, and Howry as soon as I could -- for whatever I could -- and I'd be hot on the phone to move DeRosa and Floyd on June 15.

 

Theriot replaces Izturis at SS with a call-up for Fontenot, Pie gets the call to replace Jones, and there are bullpen replacements a-plenty to be had either in the trades or from Iowa. Rapada comes to mind, for example. When DeRosa goes, bring up Patterson.

[brinoch]

He's on pace for what, 330 AB's -- maybe 350 PA if he's lucky? He only has 110 PA right now, so I think we're safe on that score. 100 GS is another story... he's started 25 games by my count (I could be wrong) with 111 games left in the season. If he starts 68% of the games over Murton, or if there is an injury to Soriano or Murton, he has a very good chance to make that. As things stand now, he's started about 50% of games.

 

He's on pace for 400 AB, so it wouldn't take much to get up to 450 PA. As you said, if there's an injury to Murton, Jones or Soriano, or if Lou suddenly decides he needs Floyd hitting 4th everyday, then it becomes a scary issue.

 

It's scary enough as it stands right now. Floyd needs to go.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Besides the players already mentioned, the Soriano contract is the killer. What an AWFUL deal that one is shaping up to be. We're on the hook forever for megamillions to a marginal player that can't get on base. Terrific. This contract will end up as Darren Dreifort, Jason Kendall type bad: only worse, because of the length.

 

Nice going away present, Jim Hendry, thanks!

[frostwyrm]

Shoulda just written off 2007. We could have had a real good team in 2008 and none of these financial headaches that will linger well into the next decade.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Besides the players already mentioned, the Soriano contract is the killer. What an AWFUL deal that one is shaping up to be. We're on the hook forever for megamillions to a marginal player that can't get on base. Terrific. This contract will end up as Darren Dreifort, Jason Kendall type bad: only worse, because of the length.

 

Nice going away present, Jim Hendry, thanks!

 

He's played less than 1/2 a season in Chicago.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Besides the players already mentioned, the Soriano contract is the killer. What an AWFUL deal that one is shaping up to be. We're on the hook forever for megamillions to a marginal player that can't get on base. Terrific. This contract will end up as Darren Dreifort, Jason Kendall type bad: only worse, because of the length.

 

Nice going away present, Jim Hendry, thanks!

 

Soriano has the 2nd best OBP of his career right now, it's the 2nd worst SLG and IsoP of his career that are disappointing from him.

[Rusch33]

Carlos Beltran struggled big time in his first year in New York.

 

Batted about 260 with 16 homers.

[jersey cubs fan]

Carlos Beltran struggled big time in his first year in New York.

 

Batted about 260 with 16 homers.

 

He did struggle offensively. But there are key differences, he was 3 years younger than Soriano is now, still in his prime. There was reasonable hope for improvement. Beltran also hit for average and drew walks, putting up a far better OBP than Soriano did up to that point, indicating a very solid approach at the plate that was not prone to the same type of problems that Soriano is prone to. In the season before he came to NY, Beltran had a k/bb of 101/92. Soriano, at his best last year, was 160/67. Beltran's isolated patience was far more indicative of a player with a good future.

 

Furthermore, Beltran was a terrific natural CF. Soriano is a shaky converted corner OF with no fallback position. Beltran's contract will be run out at a much younger age as well.

 

Bottom line:

 

Beltran was better, signed younger, was much more likely to sustain quality play, added value via his defense - both in terms of quality and the position he played, and isn't guaranteed big money as deep into his career.

[TruffleShuffle]

As we begin thinking about Cub trade scenarios and trade rumors at the deadline, we should all stay cognizant of the large payroll commitment the Cubs have in 2008.

 

Per my quick scan, they have 12 players under contract in 2008 for a whopping $81M. Those players are Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Lilly, Jones, Dempster, Marquis, Howry, Eyre, DeRosa, Blanco and Ohman.

 

That figure does not include pro-rated signing bonuses totalling in the neighborhood of $6M for many of those players. It also does not include up to $5M in potential payroll dedicated to 3 arbitration eligible guys: Prior, Cotts, Wuertz.

 

He is potentially looking at $92M committed to 15 players.

 

Along with the imminent sale, I think that hefty commitment will make it nearly impossible for Hendry to use his normal trading MO: taking on the contracts or arbitration eligible status lasting beyond the current season of productive players from smaller market teams. And if he can't do that, he will just not be able to trade for any good player at the deadline, who will be under Cub control beyond 2007. As for trading for imminent free agents (Hunter, Suzuki, Anduw Jones, Linebrink, etc...), who might be on the block, the Cubs probably don't have the farm system to compete with other teams in trading scenarios.

 

So, to repeat what we have all collectively said in several threads: his challenge at the deadline is to save money by dumping the likes of Jones, Howry, Eyre, DeRosa, Blanco and perhaps even Dempster. Even if he has to pick up two-thirds of those combined contract values, he could still save $9M in 2008 payroll, which will be huge for the coming offseason. Easier said than done, of course, but let's put on our thinking caps and figure this out.

 

Hoops

 

Hoops, I don't think there's a lot to figure out here. It's a matter of teams getting desperate and overpaying at the trade deadline - in this case, overpaying would be taking on another year or two of a bad contract. DeRosa certainly has value, but I'd be somewhat surprised if the Cubs deal him. I could see a team picking up more than half of the Howry/Jones contracts, and all of Dempster's contract. Blanco doesn't have a lot of value unless you find a playoff team with a significant injury risk at catcher. Eyre has rendered himself completely worthless; that's one that the Cubs just have to eat.

 

What's frustrating is that the Cubs have such a large number of players with little trade value. Dempster and Howry (if he gets things back together) have probably the most value of people who can be traded, and that's not saying much. Still, I have little confidence in what we'd end up getting back, given Hendry's poor track record of evaluating talent.

 

I have no idea how to fill the void at SS. There are no good SS on the market this offseason, and there isn't a good solution from within. The Cubs might be best served to bite the bullet with Theriot for next year. If the Cubs draft Wieters, I think it's possible to look toward the following lineup in the not-too-distant future:

 

C Wieters

1B Lee

2B Patterson

SS Theriot

3B Ramirez

LF Soriano

CF Pie

RF Murton

 

Util DeRosa

Backup C Soto

BN Moore

BN Fontenot

 

 

SP Zambrano (if resigned)/Prior (if surgery was successful)

SP Hill

SP Lilly

SP Marquis

SP Marshall/Veal/Gallagher

 

RP Guzman

RP Wuertz

RP Ohman

RP Rapada

RP Cotts/Cherry

CL Marmol

 

 

That's a team with some high-priced players, but also some good low-priced options from within. But, the Cubs actually have to commit to giving guys like Pie, Patterson, a starting pitcher, and some of the relievers a chance to work through the rough patches in the big leagues. If they keep trying to fill needs with knee-jerk, overly expensive signings of "proven" talent, then they'll descend even further into salary hell.

 

There are certainly worse positions to be in that the one the Cubs are in now. But it will take some good decision-making (gulp) to put a good team on the field in the next 2-3 years.

[CubColtPacer]

He's on pace for what, 330 AB's -- maybe 350 PA if he's lucky? He only has 110 PA right now, so I think we're safe on that score. 100 GS is another story... he's started 25 games by my count (I could be wrong) with 111 games left in the season. If he starts 68% of the games over Murton, or if there is an injury to Soriano or Murton, he has a very good chance to make that. As things stand now, he's started about 50% of games.

 

He's on pace for 400 AB, so it wouldn't take much to get up to 450 PA. As you said, if there's an injury to Murton, Jones or Soriano, or if Lou suddenly decides he needs Floyd hitting 4th everyday, then it becomes a scary issue.

 

How is he on pace for 400 AB's? He has 104 AB's through 51 games-that's a pace of 330.4 AB's on the season, and he's on pace for just over 362 PA's on the season. He'd have to start playing just about everyday for the rest of the season in order to reach the 450 mark at this point.

[Balsa]

Why oh why couldn't we have spent the money earlier and signed Beltran???

 

I think missing him and signing Soriano will be the two biggest mistakes for the Cubs the next eight or so years.

[TruffleShuffle]

Why oh why couldn't we have spent the money earlier and signed Beltran???

 

I think missing him and signing Soriano will be the two biggest mistakes for the Cubs the next eight or so years.

 

not signing Vlad was a huge mistake too

[SouthSideRyan]

Anyone have a clue who's going to catch for us next year? A small part of me hopes we start Blanco or somebody like him just to quiet the defensive catcher crowd. Kinda like how Barrett quieted the "this team needs some fire" crowd last year.

 

Not like we're gonna win anyways.

[JeffH]

Why oh why couldn't we have spent the money earlier and signed Beltran???

 

I think missing him and signing Soriano will be the two biggest mistakes for the Cubs the next eight or so years.

 

not signing Vlad was a huge mistake too

 

Tejada.

[wrigley23]

you guys make it sound so easy. dump this guy. move derosa, etc. what you are missing is that no one else wants them & they sure don't want to take on the salary. you have to have a willing participant here & the orioles/pirates can only be had so many times.

[Amazing_Grace]

As we begin thinking about Cub trade scenarios and trade rumors at the deadline, we should all stay cognizant of the large payroll commitment the Cubs have in 2008.

 

Per my quick scan, they have 12 players under contract in 2008 for a whopping $81M. Those players are Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Lilly, Jones, Dempster, Marquis, Howry, Eyre, DeRosa, Blanco and Ohman.

 

That figure does not include pro-rated signing bonuses totalling in the neighborhood of $6M for many of those players. It also does not include up to $5M in potential payroll dedicated to 3 arbitration eligible guys: Prior, Cotts, Wuertz.

 

He is potentially looking at $92M committed to 15 players.

 

Along with the imminent sale, I think that hefty commitment will make it nearly impossible for Hendry to use his normal trading MO: taking on the contracts or arbitration eligible status lasting beyond the current season of productive players from smaller market teams. And if he can't do that, he will just not be able to trade for any good player at the deadline, who will be under Cub control beyond 2007. As for trading for imminent free agents (Hunter, Suzuki, Anduw Jones, Linebrink, etc...), who might be on the block, the Cubs probably don't have the farm system to compete with other teams in trading scenarios.

 

So, to repeat what we have all collectively said in several threads: his challenge at the deadline is to save money by dumping the likes of Jones, Howry, Eyre, DeRosa, Blanco and perhaps even Dempster. Even if he has to pick up two-thirds of those combined contract values, he could still save $9M in 2008 payroll, which will be huge for the coming offseason. Easier said than done, of course, but let's put on our thinking caps and figure this out.

 

Hoops

 

I agree with this post 100%. The Cubs should save as much money as they can.

 

I would trade one of Lilly/Marquis. If they're still pitching well, they have some value, and you may be able to find a team willing to take most of their contract (meaning the Cubs don't have to pay more than half the deal). Dealing Marquis is the more likely, and probably more prudent, option.

 

I would keep DeRosa. 3/13 isn't that bad considering what we gave to Neifi to be a supersub. At worst, DeRosa is a much better version of Neifi. At best, we can use him to fill in whatever position seems weakest out of RF or 2b.

 

I would trade Z, but only if the Cubs get a ML ready prospect at P, C, or SS. The other positions are covered either by prospects we have in the system, or cheap players we have now. If they can't get that, then the only other thing to consider would be using Z as leverage to force another team to take on one of our worst contracts (Jones, Dempster, Eyre).

 

If Barrett starts hitting, he may have some value to an AL team that needs a backup catcher. If you get a decent offer, you take it. Blanco has very very little value unless perhaps Z improves with him as his personal catcher. Then he can be packaged in that deal.

 

Of Howry, Dempster, and Eyre, Howry's contract is the worst but he's also probably the most likely of the three not to stink. It wouldn't be terrible to keep him, but if someone is willing to take most (over 3M) of his contract contract, I think you have to deal him. Dempster is probably moveable if the Cubs pick up 2 or 3 of his 5M next year. No sane GM would trade for Scott Eyre making league minimum at this point, let alone Scott Eyre making 4M. There's really no choice here but to try to option him to AAA and let him go if he refuses.

 

I deal Jones to whoever is willing to pay half of his 6M next season for a bag of baseballs and some 'Just for Men' for all the extra gray Lou will have after this season. It's worth the Cubs paying 3M to get him out of the way of Pie and Murton even if they get nothing.

 

Best case scenario, if we're able to do most of what I suggest, the Cubs save around 3M on Dempster, 3M on Jones, 3M-4M on Marquis, and another 3M on Howry. That's only about 12M. It's a sorry commentary on Hendry but that's about as good as the Cubs can do. Of those guys, I think Dempster is the only guy where the Cubs might conceivably find someone to take his whole contract.

 

That said, I feel the chances of this happening are about zero. If the Cubs are within 5 games of first place at the break, Hendry will do nothing and hope they rebound, or he'll make the situation worse by trading for some other overpaid veteran. He's trying to save his job and very likely his future in baseball. For him there is no tomorrow.

[NewUserName]

I would trade Marquis as soon as he is eligible to be traded. His trade value will never be higher.