Lance Berkman

[Lockes Eye Scar]

.254/.400/.349

 

WTF? How is this possible?

[Rob]

.254/.400/.349

 

WTF? How is this possible?

 

He was on my fantasy team. Of course he's doing badly.

[Garwilly]

.254/.400/.349

 

WTF? How is this possible?

 

1 double and 5 hr's this season.

[jersey cubs fan]

Did he pull a Scott Eyre and foolishly work out this offseason?

[sunnydoo]

.254/.400/.349

 

WTF? How is this possible?

 

Its kind of the same thing that is going on with DLee and ARam, although many on this board dont believe that it exists.

 

Teams have a choice to pitch to either Berkman or CLee when playing Houston. Most opt to go after CLee and pitch around Berkman, which is why is OBP is so out of whack with his batting average. Because his BA is so low in comparison to OBP as opposed to say a DLee (although DLee is definitely a better hitter) shows a little lack of patience in going after bad balls, especially since your Career OBP numbers are typically higher. And if you arent getting good pitches to hit, you cant really tag them for extra base hits.

 

However with Pence coming on strong for Houston and beginning to protect CLee in the 5 hole...pretty soon most teams arent going to have the option to choose to go after Berkman or CLee with less than 2 outs. An option that the Cubs do not have at the moment, and the Astros didnt have until Pence showed up from nowhere. Lane has been 100% awful this season (171/182), while Barrett has only been horrendously bad (244/294).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

.254/.400/.349

 

WTF? How is this possible?

 

Its kind of the same thing that is going on with DLee and ARam, although many on this board dont believe that it exists.

 

Teams have a choice to pitch to either Berkman or CLee when playing Houston. Most opt to go after CLee and pitch around Berkman, which is why is OBP is so out of whack with his batting average. Because his BA is so low as opposed to DLee (although DLee is definitely a better hitter) shows a little lack of patience in going after bad balls, especially since your Career OBP numbers are typically higher. And if you arent getting good pitches to hit, you cant really tag them for extra base hits.

 

However with Pence coming on strong for Houston and beginning to protect CLee in the 5 hole...pretty soon most teams arent going to have the option to choose to go after Berkman or CLee with less than 2 outs. An option that the Cubs do not have at the moment, and the Astros didnt have until Pence showed up from nowhere. Lane has been 100% awful this season (171/182), while Barrett has only been horrendously bad (244/294).

 

So you think the reason Lee hasn't hit for as much power is that teams are pitching around him?

 

And as it relates to Berkman, why didn't this happen before when there was nobody around him(compared to Lee now)?

[sunnydoo]

So you think the reason Lee hasn't hit for as much power is that teams are pitching around him?

 

I think much of it is that. You look at the pitches he is driving for his extra base hits this year and they are typically down and away that he is driving to right. Teams are really keeping things away from him high and plate to in where he typically hits the snot out of the baseball to left.

 

I will grant you that some of the pitches he has hit to right this year may have gone out in years past. His wrist strength isnt probably all the way back yet, but hopefully it will show up in the not too distant future.

 

And as it relates to Berkman, why didn't this happen before when there was nobody around him(compared to Lee now)?

 

Jeff Bagwell. You could go after him or Bagwell. Bagwell was the easier choice, especially after his shoulder injury.

[TruffleShuffle]

.254/.400/.349

 

WTF? How is this possible?

 

Its kind of the same thing that is going on with DLee and ARam, although many on this board dont believe that it exists.

 

Teams have a choice to pitch to either Berkman or CLee when playing Houston. Most opt to go after CLee and pitch around Berkman, which is why is OBP is so out of whack with his batting average. Because his BA is so low in comparison to OBP as opposed to say a DLee (although DLee is definitely a better hitter) shows a little lack of patience in going after bad balls, especially since your Career OBP numbers are typically higher. And if you arent getting good pitches to hit, you cant really tag them for extra base hits.

 

However with Pence coming on strong for Houston and beginning to protect CLee in the 5 hole...pretty soon most teams arent going to have the option to choose to go after Berkman or CLee with less than 2 outs. An option that the Cubs do not have at the moment, and the Astros didnt have until Pence showed up from nowhere. Lane has been 100% awful this season (171/182), while Barrett has only been horrendously bad (244/294).

 

 

Uh, this isn't the problem at all. Yes, Berkman is walking at a higher rate than last year, but he's always had good patience. Last year he had 74 extra base hits and 95 singles.... this year he has 6 extra base hits and 37 singles. Obviously his power has completely disappeared.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So you think the reason Lee hasn't hit for as much power is that teams are pitching around him?

 

I think much of it is that. You look at the pitches he is driving for his extra base hits this year and they are typically down and away that he is driving to right. Teams are really keeping things away from him high and plate to in where he typically hits the snot out of the baseball to left.

 

I will grant you that some of the pitches he has hit to right this year may have gone out in years past. His wrist strength isnt probably all the way back yet, but hopefully it will show up in the not too distant future.

 

And as it relates to Berkman, why didn't this happen before when there was nobody around him(compared to Lee now)?

 

Jeff Bagwell. You could go after him or Bagwell. Bagwell was the easier choice, especially after his shoulder injury.

 

I can't check right now, but is Lee walking any more than he has in previous years?

 

And you just contradicted yourself with Berkman/Bagwell. Berkman had less protection before and was pounding the ball. Now he's getting fewer pitches to hit because Lee's there? Doesn't make sense.

 

Lineup protection is pretty much a myth. People talk about it all the time, but for all the talk there is no tangible connection between it and performance.

[sunnydoo]

And you just contradicted yourself with Berkman/Bagwell. Berkman had less protection before and was pounding the ball. Now he's getting fewer pitches to hit because Lee's there? Doesn't make sense.

 

Lineup protection is pretty much a myth. People talk about it all the time, but for all the talk there is no tangible connection between it and performance.

 

Well if you recall though...Bagwell was the one driving the train. Kent batted cleanup and Berkman was the #5 hitter. Hidalgo or Ensberg followed Berkman.

 

So Lance was getting good pitches to hit because he was in the middle of the mess and perceived as the weak link.

 

And lineup protection is much less a myth than the loogy. I can honestly say having pitched some in the past that there are guys you go after and guys you dont. you are living in the fantasy realm if you dont look on deck and say i would rather face him with a man on than this guy at the plate and get tatooed.

 

And why challenge the hitter when you know you can get the next guy out at the plate? He may get himself out on a bad pitch, but worse case scenario is that you go after the next guy.

Edited May 29, 2007 by sunnydoo

[Lockes Eye Scar]

I wonder if he's hiding any injuries that are affecting his swing. I can't think of any other explanation for that kind of dip in power. Maybe if he was getting up there in age, but he's 31.

[seanimal]

I hate Fat Elvis

[Transmogrified Tiger]

And lineup protection is much less a myth than the loogy. I can honestly say having pitched some in the past that there are guys you go after and guys you dont. you are living in the fantasy realm if you dont look on deck and say i would rather face him with a man on than this guy at the plate and get tatooed.

 

And why challenge the hitter when you know you can get the next guy out at the plate? He may get himself out on a bad pitch, but worse case scenario is that you go after the next guy.

 

Even if this mindset is widespread, there's no evidence of it having any type of worthwhile effect.

[sunnydoo]

Even if this mindset is widespread, there's no evidence of it having any type of worthwhile effect.

 

Just because you cant account for it with math or see it, does not mean that it does not exist.

 

The recently discovered dark energy/matter comes to mind.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Even if this mindset is widespread, there's no evidence of it having any type of worthwhile effect.

 

Just because you cant account for it with math or see it, does not mean that it does not exist.

 

Semantics. There's no measurable effect. So even if it does exist, it doesn't matter.

[imb]

Even if this mindset is widespread, there's no evidence of it having any type of worthwhile effect.

 

Just because you cant account for it with math or see it, does not mean that it does not exist.

 

The recently discovered dark energy/matter comes to mind.

 

Hahaha, we're talking baseball here, not quantum physics.

 

If there was a relationship, it would show up in the numbers.

[sunnydoo]

Hahaha, we're talking baseball here, not quantum physics.

 

*Obligatory Quote on quantum physics, love and baseball.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Annie Savoy: These are the ground rules. I hook up with one guy a season. Usually takes me a couple weeks to pick the guy - kinda my own spring training. And, well, you two are the most promising prospects of the season so far, so I just thought we should kinda get to know each other.

Crash Davis: Time out. Why do you get to choose?

Annie Savoy: What?

Crash Davis: Why do you get to choose? I mean, why don't I get to choose, why doesn't he get to choose?

Annie Savoy: Well, actually, nobody on this planet ever really chooses each other. I mean, it's all a question of quantum physics, molecular attraction, and timing. Why, there are laws we don't understand that bring us together and tear us apart. Uh, it's like pheromones. You get three ants together, they can't do dick. You get 300 million of them, they can build a cathedral.

[Crash laughs]

Ebby Calvin LaLoosh: So is somebody going to go to bed with somebody or what?

Annie Savoy: Honey, you are a regular nuclear meltdown. You better cool off. Ha ha, ha ha!

[to Crash]

Annie Savoy: Oh, where are you going?

Crash Davis: After 12 years in the minor leagues, I don't try out. Besides, uh, I don't believe in quantum physics when it comes to matters of the heart.

Annie Savoy: What do you believe in, then?

Crash Davis: Well, I believe in the soul, the [expletive], the $##!#%, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.

[pause]

Crash Davis: Goodnight.

Annie Savoy: Oh my. Crash...

Ebby Calvin LaLoosh: Hey, Annie, what's all this molecule stuff?

[TruffleShuffle]

Even if this mindset is widespread, there's no evidence of it having any type of worthwhile effect.

 

Just because you cant account for it with math or see it, does not mean that it does not exist.

 

Even if your argument is that he's being pitched around more, that really doesn't explain this:

 

2006: Percent of hits that were extra base hits: 43.7%

Percent of ball in play that were extra base hits: 13.6%

 

2007: Percent of hits that were extra base hits: 14.0%

Percent of ball in play that were extra base hits: 3.5%

 

 

His SLG% is lower than Neifi Perez, for God's sakes.

[sunnydoo]

Even if your argument is that he's being pitched around more, that really doesn't explain this:

 

2006: Percent of hits that were extra base hits: 43.7%

Percent of ball in play that were extra base hits: 13.6%

 

2007: Percent of hits that were extra base hits: 14.0%

Percent of ball in play that were extra base hits: 3.5%

 

Actually it illustrates my point perfectly.

 

If the guy isnt getting good pitches to hit, then he cant do anything with power associated.So instead of being able to drive the ball somewhere, he is just able to flip it out into the voids. Bad pitches are hard to hit, thats why they are bad.

 

Also pressing and swinging at bad pitches get you more outs because you will lack the ability to get them somewhere. So your % will go down from that as well. Again bad pitches are bad.

 

Thats why i hate people like Vlad Guerrero. So disgusting with what he can do at the plate. There are no bad pitches for him. Terrific waste hitter.

[TruffleShuffle]

Even if your argument is that he's being pitched around more, that really doesn't explain this:

 

2006: Percent of hits that were extra base hits: 43.7%

Percent of ball in play that were extra base hits: 13.6%

 

2007: Percent of hits that were extra base hits: 14.0%

Percent of ball in play that were extra base hits: 3.5%

 

Actually it illustrates my point perfectly.

 

If the guy isnt getting good pitches to hit, then he cant do anything with power associated.So instead of being able to drive the ball somewhere, he is just able to flip it out into the voids. Bad pitches are hard to hit, thats why they are bad.

 

Also pressing and swinging at bad pitches get you more outs because you will lack the ability to get them somewhere. So your % will go down from that as well. Again bad pitches are bad.

 

Thats why i hate people like Vlad Guerrero. So disgusting with what he can do at the plate. There are no bad pitches for him. Terrific waste hitter.

 

boy this is really a reach. And as has been mentioned before, this year he's had Carlos Lee behind him the entire year, whereas last year he was backed up mostly by either Morgan Ensberg, Aubrey Huff or Luke Scott. Certainly Carlos Lee is viewed as the most dangerous hitter in that group.

[TruffleShuffle]

I'm also curious how Barry Bonds has managed to hit all those homers in SF the past several years with the likes of Benito Santiago, JT Snow, Andres Galarraga, Edgardo Alfonso, Jeffrey Hammonds, Jose Cruz Jr. and Pedro Feliz in the 5-hole.

[sunnydoo]

boy this is really a reach. And as has been mentioned before, this year he's had Carlos Lee behind him the entire year, whereas last year he was backed up mostly by either Morgan Ensberg, Aubrey Huff or Luke Scott. Certainly Carlos Lee is viewed as the most dangerous hitter in that group.

 

Carlos Lee's slugging % is 497 lifetime and has been around 540 the last couple of seasons.

 

Berkman's is 557 lifetime and has cycled from a high of 621 last season to a 515 a few years ago.

 

Berkman (switch hitter) is also more difficult to deal with b/c he bats left handed (most of the time)as opposed to the right handed Lee, so he has that advantage as well.

 

As for last year, Phil Garner is a very very sneaky guy. A fellow Tennessean, he has the name Old Scrap Iron for a reason. He was hiding Berkman last season. He was continually changing his lineup, keeping a hot hitter behind Berkman. That way, you had to decide against pitching to Berkman vs. someone who was hot. Ensberg who backed him up until June was hitting .329 in the month of april and down eventually to 265 by the end of may. Garner then moved in Preston Wilson and dropped Berkman to the 4 hole. Then it was Huff and Lane for the rest of the year. Just about anyone who backed up Berkman, had a significant jump in their avg. immediately following the move. Altogether pretty sly.

 

As for Bonds, #1 Kent was there for his 73 hr season. #2 he has extraordinary talent even before the steroids. His swing, motion, reflexes and hands maybe in the top 10 of all time. They are lightning quick. The trouble has been his legs the last few years. He is just a talented guy and if he gets anything to hit, then he is going to hit it. All the steroids did was put more pop in the bat.

[TruffleShuffle]

boy this is really a reach. And as has been mentioned before, this year he's had Carlos Lee behind him the entire year, whereas last year he was backed up mostly by either Morgan Ensberg, Aubrey Huff or Luke Scott. Certainly Carlos Lee is viewed as the most dangerous hitter in that group.

 

Carlos Lee's slugging % is 497 lifetime and has been around 540 the last couple of seasons.

 

Berkman's is 557 lifetime and has cycled from a high of 621 last season to a 515 a few years ago.

 

Berkman (switch hitter) is also more difficult to deal with b/c he bats left handed (most of the time)as opposed to the right handed Lee, so he has that advantage as well.

 

As for last year, Phil Garner is a very very sneaky guy. A fellow Tennessean, he has the name Old Scrap Iron for a reason. He was hiding Berkman last season. He was continually changing his lineup, keeping a hot hitter behind Berkman. That way, you had to decide against pitching to Berkman vs. someone who was hot. Ensberg who backed him up until June was hitting .329 in the month of april and down eventually to 265 by the end of may. Garner then moved in Preston Wilson and dropped Berkman to the 4 hole. Then it was Huff and Lane for the rest of the year. Just about anyone who backed up Berkman, had a significant jump in their avg. immediately following the move. Altogether pretty sly.

 

OPS behind berkman was just about the same, or slightly lower, last year than it is this year

[sunnydoo]

OPS behind berkman was just about the same, or slightly lower, last year than it is this year

 

I really dont like talking about OPS b/c it is 2 stats wrapped into 1 and isnt very specific. Is it the OBP or the Slugging % that is down, and what are the numbers? It makes a big difference.

[SouthSideRyan]

OPS behind berkman was just about the same, or slightly lower, last year than it is this year

 

I really dont like talking about OPS b/c it is 2 stats wrapped into 1 and isnt very specific. Is it the OBP or the Slugging % that is down, and what are the numbers? It makes a big difference.

 

First you say which is more important to have behidn you.