5/1 Cubs (Lilly) at Pitt (Armas) resumes 5/2 at 11:30 am CT

[badgercub]

*Warning: I am going to sound like a nerd in this post.*

 

It's actually not unusual for a playoff team to finish April 3 or more games under .500. According to the Statistics class I'm taking, things are unusual only if they occur less than 5% of the time. :P

 

because then they would be more than 2 standard deviations from the norm. correct?

[otis89]

*Warning: I am going to sound like a nerd in this post.*

 

It's actually not unusual for a playoff team to finish April 3 or more games under .500. According to the Statistics class I'm taking, things are unusual only if they occur less than 5% of the time. :P

 

because then they would be more than 2 standard deviations from the norm. correct?

 

Correct.

[badgercub]

*Warning: I am going to sound like a nerd in this post.*

 

It's actually not unusual for a playoff team to finish April 3 or more games under .500. According to the Statistics class I'm taking, things are unusual only if they occur less than 5% of the time. :P

 

because then they would be more than 2 standard deviations from the norm. correct?

 

Correct.

 

I guess my studying in school paid off. Plus I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Greetings one and all from beautiful Segovia, TX !!

 

Worthless stats of the day for Tuesday............

 

CUBS are 0-3 on Tuesdays

CUBS are 0-1 vs. Pittsburgh

CUBS are 8-12 vs. the NLC Division

CUBS are 4-3 when they've lost their last 1 game(s) in a row

CUBS are 0-1 when they've First game game(s) in a row

CUBS are 6-6 when they've lost their previous game

CUBS are 5-4 at night

CUBS are 6-5 on the road

CUBS are 9-12 against right handers

CUBS are 2-5 when CSN broadcasts the game

CUBS are 10-5 when they get a quality start.... 0-9 when they don't

CUBS are 2-7 when the opponenent gets a quality start.... 8-7 when they don't

CUBS are 9-7 when they score first in the game.... 1-7 when they don't

CUBS are 3-7 when they score in the first inning.... 7-7 when they don't

CUBS are on a pace to win 68 games this year..... compared to 66 last year and 79 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to score 756 runs this year..... compared to 716 last year and 703 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to hit 128 homeruns this year..... compared to 166 last year and 194 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to draw 466 walks this year..... compared to 395 last year and 419 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to strike out 1094 times this year..... compared to 928 last year and 920 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to steal 81 bases this year..... compared to 121 last year and 64 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to ground into 122 double plays this year..... compared to 135 last year and 129 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to commit 74 errors this year..... compared to 104 last year and 100 in '05

CUBS are scoring 4.67 runs per game...... compared to 4.42 last year and 4.34 in '05

CUBS are seeing 3.71 pitches per plate appearance...... compared to 3.68 last year and 3.61 in '05

CUBS are drving in 19.8% of their runners on base...... compared to 20.0% last year and 18.4% in '05

CUBS are scoring 0.366 runs per baserunner...... compared to 0.370 last year and 0.365 in '05

CUBS are getting extra base hits at a 34.9% rate...... compared to 32.3% last year and 35.8 in '05

 

 

CUBS are 2-3 when Lilly starts

Lilly is 5 of 5 in quality starts

Lilly's ERA pitching to Barrett is 2.08.... pitcheng to Blanco it's 2.57

CUBS score 4.67 R/G overall.... 3.40 R/G when Lilly pitches

CUBS hit 0.79 HR/G overall.... 0.20 HR/G when Lilly pitches

 

CUBS' offensive support of Lilly.....

 

04/02 - 04/30      AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
CUBS w/Lilly      167   17   42    7    0    1   52   16   15   35  0.251  0.317  0.311  0.628
CUBS overall      859  112  232   58    4   19  355  106   69  162  0.270  0.326  0.413  0.739

 

Lilly's starts this year (2-2)

 

Lilly                   IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
04/04  vs. Cincy       7.0    3    1    1    1    9    0   101  1.29 11.57  0.00  0.57  1.29
04/09  vs. Houst       6.0    6    3    3    1    5    0    90  1.50  7.50  0.00  1.17  4.50
04/15  vs. Cincy       6.0    2    1    1    1   10    0   101  1.50 15.00  0.00  0.50  1.50
04/20  vs. St. L       7.0    4    2    2    2    6    1   100  2.57  7.71  1.29  0.86  2.57
04/25  vs. Milw        7.0    6    2    1    0    3    0   100  0.00  3.86  0.00  0.86  1.29

Home                  26.0   18    8    7    4   24    1   391  1.38  8.31  0.35  0.85  2.42
Road                   7.0    3    1    1    1    9    0   101  1.29 11.57  0.00  0.57  1.29

Day                   26.0   18    8    7    4   24    1   391  1.38  8.31  0.35  0.85  2.42
Nite                   7.0    3    1    1    1    9    0   101  1.29 11.57  0.00  0.57  1.29

season totals         33.0   21    9    8    5   33    1   492  1.36  9.00  0.27  0.79  2.18

 

CUBS bullpen load during the last week.......

 

              Mon        Sun        Sat        Fri        Thur       Wed        Tue           Totals
             20 Apr     29 Apr     28 Apr     27 Apr     26 Apr     25 Apr     24 Apr
             @ Pitts    no game    @ St. L.   @ St. L.   no game    vs Milw    vs Milw 
pitcher        IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit        IP Pit

Cotts                                          0.0   3                                        0.0   3
Dempster                                       1.7  26                                        1.7  26
Eyre                                                                            1.0  23       1.0  23
Guzman                                                                                               
Howry                                                                1.0  15                  1.0  15
Ohman                               1.0   8    0.0   3                                        1.0  11
Wuertz        1.0   9                          0.7  11               1.0  19                  2.7  39
Cherry                              1.0  12                                     1.3  19       2.3  31


Totals        1.0   9               2.0  20    2.3  43               2.0  34    2.3  42       9.7 148

 

CUBS' season series vs. Pittsburgh this year (0-0).....

 

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter         Opp Starter
24  Mon 04/30  @ Pittsburgh    N   2- 3  Hill            Duke          
25  Tue 05/01  @ Pittsburgh    N    -    Lilly           Armas         
26  Wed 05/02  @ Pittsburgh         -    Marquis         Snell         
30  Tue 05/08    Pittsburgh    N    -    Marquis         Gorzelanny    
31  Wed 05/09    Pittsburgh         -    Zambrano        Maholm        
32  Thu 05/10    Pittsburgh         -    Hill            Armas         
84  Fri 07/06  @ Pittsburgh    N    -    Guzman          Capuano       
85  Sat 07/07  @ Pittsburgh    N    -    Marquis         Suppan        
86  Sun 07/08  @ Pittsburgh         -    Zambrano        Bush          
142  Fri 09/07  @ Pittsburgh    N    -    Hill            Gorzelanny    
143  Sat 09/08  @ Pittsburgh    N    -    Lilly           Maholm        
144  Sun 09/09  @ Pittsburgh         -    Guzman          Armas         
154  Fri 09/21    Pittsburgh         -    Guzman          Armas         
155  Sat 09/22    Pittsburgh         -    Marquis         Duke          
156  Sun 09/23    Pittsburgh         -    Zambrano        Snell         

 

CUBS hitters vs. Pittsburgh this year.....

 

vs. Pitts          AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP
Ramirez             4    0    2    1    0    0    3    1    0    0  0.500  0.500  0.750  1.250  0.500
Lee                 5    1    2    1    0    0    3    0    0    0  0.400  0.400  0.600  1.000  0.400
Soriano             5    0    2    0    0    0    2    0    0    1  0.400  0.400  0.400  0.800  0.500
Theriot             2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    3    0  0.000  0.600  0.000  0.600  0.000
Barrett             4    0    1    0    0    0    1    0    0    1  0.250  0.250  0.250  0.500  0.333
Pie                 4    1    1    0    0    0    1    0    0    0  0.250  0.250  0.250  0.500  0.250
DeRosa              4    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000
Jones               1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000
Murton              4    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000

totals vs. Pitts   36    2    9    3    0    0   12    1    3    4  0.250  0.308  0.333  0.641  0.281

season totals     860  112  232   54    3   19  349  106   69  162  0.270  0.326  0.406  0.732  0.314

 

CUBS pitchers vs. Pittsburgh this year......

 

vs. Pitts            IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
Hill                7.0    6    2    2    1    6    0   103  1.29  7.71  0.00  1.00  2.57
Wuertz              1.0    1    1    1    0    0    1     9  0.00  0.00  9.00  1.00  9.00

totals vs. Pitts    8.0    7    3    3    1    6    1   112  1.13  6.75  1.13  1.00  3.38

season totals     220.0  190   91   88   81  176   26  3477  3.31  7.20  1.06  1.23  3.60

 

CUBS' hitters during the last 14 games......

 

04/15 - 04/30      AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP
Lee                56   14   22    8    0    1   33    8    9   11  0.393  0.485  0.589  1.074  0.477
Ward                5    1    1    1    0    0    2    0    4    1  0.200  0.556  0.400  0.956  0.250
Ramirez            49    7   12    2    1    4   28   12    6    6  0.245  0.321  0.571  0.893  0.205
Barrett            44    5   13    1    0    4   26   12    1    9  0.295  0.298  0.591  0.889  0.290
DeRosa             45    6   12    5    0    2   23    8    6    9  0.267  0.365  0.511  0.876  0.294
Soriano            31    4   10    3    0    0   13    0    1    8  0.323  0.344  0.419  0.763  0.435
Blanco             13    2    4    1    0    0    5    1    1    2  0.308  0.357  0.385  0.742  0.364
Theriot            50    8   15    2    0    0   17    3    3    5  0.300  0.340  0.340  0.680  0.333
Pie                43    6   10    3    1    1   18    3    1    8  0.233  0.250  0.419  0.669  0.265
Floyd              32    5    8    1    0    1   12    7    1    6  0.250  0.273  0.375  0.648  0.280
Murton             28    4    7    2    0    0    9    2    3    2  0.250  0.323  0.321  0.644  0.269
Jones              45    2   13    1    0    0   14    7    2    6  0.289  0.319  0.311  0.630  0.333
Cedeno             19    1    2    1    0    1    6    2    1    6  0.105  0.150  0.316  0.466  0.083
Izturis            19    2    3    0    0    0    3    1    2    3  0.158  0.238  0.158  0.396  0.188

Last 14 games     514   69  138   34    2   14  218   66   41   96  0.268  0.323  0.424  0.747  0.307

season totals     860  112  232   54    3   19  349  106   69  162  0.270  0.326  0.406  0.732  0.314

 

CUBS' pitchers during the last 14 games......

 

04/15 - 04/30        IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
Cotts               4.0    2    0    0    4    2    0    77  9.00  4.50  0.00  1.50  0.00
Guzman              2.0    1    0    0    0    4    0    24  0.00 18.00  0.00  0.50  0.00
Wuertz             10.3   10    2    2    2    8    2   140  1.74  6.97  1.74  1.16  1.74
Lilly              20.0   12    5    4    3   19    1   301  1.35  8.55  0.45  0.75  1.80
Marquis            19.7   15    4    4    7   10    1   314  3.20  4.58  0.46  1.12  1.83
Hill               21.7   16    6    6    7   18    2   322  2.91  7.48  0.83  1.06  2.49
Howry               6.7    7    2    2    3    2    0   102  4.05  2.70  0.00  1.50  2.70
Cherry              3.3    3    1    1    0    1    1    44  0.00  2.70  2.70  0.90  2.70
Dempster            8.7    4    3    3    2    7    1   112  2.08  7.27  1.04  0.69  3.12
Zambrano           18.3   20    8    8    8   15    4   329  3.93  7.36  1.96  1.53  3.93
Ohman               5.7    6    4    4    1    4    1    84  1.59  6.35  1.59  1.24  6.35
Miller              9.7   15   10   10    4    6    3   195  3.72  5.59  2.79  1.97  9.31
Eyre                3.0    9    5    5    4    5    1    80 12.00 15.00  3.00  4.33 15.00

Last 14 games     133.0  120   50   49   45  101   17  2124  3.05  6.83  1.15  1.24  3.32

season totals     220.0  190   91   88   81  176   26  3477  3.31  7.20  1.06  1.23  3.60

 

Percentage of baserunners driven in........

 

04/02 - 04/30      BDI  LOB   RBI%
Lee                 15   31  0.326
Barrett             13   34  0.277
DeRosa              11   31  0.262
Theriot              7   20  0.259
Floyd                8   28  0.222
Ramirez             12   42  0.222
Blanco               2    8  0.200
Jones                7   31  0.184
Jones                7   31  0.184
Pie                  2   16  0.111
Murton               2   17  0.105
Izturis              3   26  0.103
Cedeno               2   21  0.087
Soriano              1   15  0.063
Ward                 0    7  0.000

CUBS                87  352  0.198

 

 

Go CUBS !!

[Moonlight Graham]

No lineup yet? Or did I miss it in this thread.

[Rob]

No lineup yet? Or did I miss it in this thread.

 

I haven't seen one yet.

[Rob]

Lineups according to Gameday

 

LF Soriano

RF Floyd

1B Lee

3B Ramirez

C Barrett

CF Jones

2B DeRosa

SS Izturis

P Lilly

 

CF Duffy

SS Wilson

2B Sanchez

LF Bay

RF Doumit

3B Bautista

1B LaRoche

C Paulino

P Armas

[rawaction]

Alfonso Soriano LF

Cliff Floyd RF

Derrek Lee 1B

Aramis Ramirez 3B

Michael Barrett C

Jacque Jones CF

Mark DeRosa 2B

Cesar Izturis SS

Ted Lilly P

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pittsburgh Pirates

Lineup

 

 

Chris Duffy CF

Jack Wilson SS

Freddy Sanchez 2B

Jason Bay LF

Ryan Doumit RF

Jose Bautista 3B

Adam LaRoche 1B

Ronny Paulino C

Tony Armas P

[otis89]

Not a bad lineup.

[Banedon]

Not a bad lineup.

 

Any lineup that includes Izturis is a bad lineup if you ask me.

[frostwyrm]

Izzy's durability has been a disappointment. I expected he would quickly pull or strain something in the cold Chicago spring weather, but it hasn't happened yet.

[bcruise]

Why is Dubya on the Gameday Audio stream? I realize it's still a while before gametime, but I thought the pregame would have started by now....

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Not a bad lineup.

 

Not a good lineup.

[Danny82]

I thought Brenley noted that Izturis was like 8/13 against Armas in his career?

[Rob]

Not a bad lineup.

 

Any lineup that includes Izturis is a bad lineup if you ask me.

 

What about...

 

CF Beltran

C Mauer

1B Pujols

DH Hafner

3B ARod

LF Manny

RF Vlad

2B Utley

SS Izturis

 

?

[otis89]

I thought Brenley noted that Izturis was like 8/13 against Armas in his career?

 

Izturis has owned Armas in his career. That being established, he'll go 0-4 with 3 Ks and a ground-out today.

[A New Era]

Not a bad lineup.

 

Any lineup that includes Izturis is a bad lineup if you ask me.

 

What about...

 

CF Beltran

C Mauer

1B Pujols

DH Hafner

3B ARod

LF Manny

RF Vlad

2B Utley

SS Izturis

 

?

 

Well if all

CF Beltran

C Mauer

1B Pujols

DH Hafner

3B ARod

LF Manny

RF Vlad

2B Utley

 

are struggling, then yes.

[bcruise]

Raining in Pittsburgh, apparently - they're saying that on the WGN720 news before the pregame. No word on how much yet, or if the game will be delayed.

[Bixby]

Raining in Pittsburgh, apparently - they're saying that on the WGN720 news before the pregame. No word on how much yet, or if the game will be delayed.

 

I'm no Tom Skilling but the radar looks like its moving past Pittsburgh???

 

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/15222?from=36hr_svrWatch_golf

[otis89]

Raining in Pittsburgh, apparently - they're saying that on the WGN720 news before the pregame. No word on how much yet, or if the game will be delayed.

 

I'm no Tom Skilling but the radar looks like its moving past Pittsburgh???

 

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/15222?from=36hr_svrWatch_golf

 

The radar also hasn't been updated in 10 minutes, and, believe it or not, radars aren't always accurate.

[IWU_CUBS_FAN]

*Warning: I am going to sound like a nerd in this post.*

 

It's actually not unusual for a playoff team to finish April 3 or more games under .500. According to the Statistics class I'm taking, things are unusual only if they occur less than 5% of the time. :P

 

because then they would be more than 2 standard deviations from the norm. correct?

 

Correct.

 

I guess my studying in school paid off. Plus I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

 

i think the real nerd is me cuz i understood that and i havent taken a stats class...god beer me strength haha

[swordsman]

Gentlemen (or ladies, it's so hard to tell online), we do have a meteorologist on staff here at NSBB.

 

Someone page our resident meteorologist, please.

[Bull]

Raining in Pittsburgh, apparently - they're saying that on the WGN720 news before the pregame. No word on how much yet, or if the game will be delayed.

 

I'm no Tom Skilling but the radar looks like its moving past Pittsburgh???

 

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/15222?from=36hr_svrWatch_golf

 

Pittsburgh looks dry, but Dubois is getting screwed. (when was the last time that was typed in a game thread)

[Roast]

Not a bad lineup.

 

Any lineup that includes Izturis is a bad lineup if you ask me.

 

What about...

 

CF Beltran

C Mauer

1B Pujols

DH Hafner

3B ARod

LF Manny

RF Vlad

2B Utley

SS Izturis

 

?

 

That lineup is bad for two reasons.

 

There is a DH and there is Izturis

[otis89]

Not a bad lineup.

 

Any lineup that includes Izturis is a bad lineup if you ask me.

 

What about...

 

CF Beltran

C Mauer

1B Pujols

DH Hafner

3B ARod

LF Manny

RF Vlad

2B Utley

SS Izturis

 

?

 

That lineup is bad for two reasons.

 

There is a DH and there is Izturis

 

Swap in Z or Marquis for Hafner then.